澳大利亚增长中心政策及实践分析——以奥伯利-沃东加为例

60年代以来,世界不少发达国家在区域发展上奉行过"增长中心"政策。本文在大量文献阅读和实地调查的基础上,对澳大利亚增长中心政策的形成和实践过程进行了理论分析和实例研究。经定量分析和组织活动研究,文章认为该政策在澳大利亚是失败的。其失败的原因可对我国有关政策的制订提供有益启示。     

Are the most productive regions necessarily the most successful? Local effects of productivity growth on employment and earnings

Economists typically celebrate productivity growth as the chief way to improve living standards. Productivity growth may reduce costs, improve quality, or lead to innovation and new products, but if demand is insufficiently elastic, productivity growth can lead to weakening of labor markets. We study county‐level effects of productivity growth and productivity levels on growth in employment, income, and earnings. The results suggest that productivity growth generally suppresses job growth but has boosting effects on earnings and, to a lesser degree, on per‐capita income, although there is considerable variation across geographies and specific outcomes.     

国外旅游发展促进经济增长假说（TLGH）研究综述

旅游发展作为经济增长过程的重要组成部分,其对经济增长的影响关系成为旅游经济学研究的核心内容。本文基于国外主流旅游经济学文献所认同的旅游发展促进经济增长假说（TLGH）,从方法论角度,分别就这种假说是否存在的时间序列数据分析、静态面板数据分析、动态面板数据分析与面板协整分析研究文献进行系统梳理。基本思路是,在总结国外研究文献对TLGH研究优劣势的基础上,据此初步揭示出TLGH研究框架的基本路径,并对我国TLGH研究的理论拓展与实证分析提出了相关建议。     

A new theropod dinosaur from South Australia

The Oligocene vegetation at Pioneer was closed temperate rainforest dominated by Nothofagus johnstonii Hill, which probably produced N. menziesii-type pollen. However, other angiosperms (Quintinia, Cupaniae, Ilex, Cunoniaceae, Myrtaceae, Proteaceae and Winteraceae) were also present, as well as several conifers (Athrotaxis, Phyllocladus, Podocarpus, Dacrydium, Dacrycarpus and Araucariaceae). This rainforest was floristically more complex that the modern Tasmanian Nothofagus cunninghamii rainforests but contained many taxonomically related elements. One major difference was that a fern similar to extant Cyathea filled the riparian niche now largely occupied by the tree-fern Dicksonia antarctica. There is indirect evidence that species producing Nothofagus brassii-type pollen may have occurred upstream of the site of deposition, suggesting that the Nothofagus species were altitudinally zoned or edaphically restricted. The current absence of many of these Nothofagus species in Tasmania may be due to their inability to survive the low temperatures of the Quaternary glaciations. The high degree of similarity of the Pioneer palynoflora to that recorded in Oligocene sediments in onshore (Partridge, 1971) and offshore (Stover &; Partridge, 1973; Stover &; Evans, 1973) Gippsland Basin strongly suggests that there was little regional differentation in southeastern Australia at that time.     

The brave new world of services-led growth

Two important trends will strongly influence growth in emerging economies: one is the increasing role of services as drivers displacing manufacturing that has hitherto been the principal engine of growth in advanced and developing economies alike; the second is the parallel rise of trade in services both directly and embodied in products. The paper shows how the competitiveness and profitability of firms is becoming closely linked to the quality and innovativeness of services, and how the bundling of services with manufactures is the key to earning high returns over the longer term. Between 25 and 40 percent of value added in manufacturing is now in the form of services with high-end manufacturing becoming increasingly services-intensive. The future therefore, seems to lie in the cultivation of product-services systems that harness the full potential of manufacturing and associated pre- and post-production services such as design, R&D, marketing, and post-sale maintenance, especially of sophisticated equipment. The policy implications for emerging economies such as Russia, India, and China are manifold; e.g. for workforce skill development; for innovation systems (the nature of innovation and the orientation of R&D); for the contribution of capital to growth in a services-centered economy; for the maximizing of productivity gains from tradable and non-tradable services, which have been productivity laggards in the past; and for the creation of a facilitating institutional environment.     

THE GREEN ECONOMY AND POST‐GROWTH REGIMES: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY

While mainstream economic geography is doing increasing research on green manufacturing and services, with a few notable exceptions, its predominant conceptual approaches to emerging modes of economic orientation continue to examine economic transitions somewhat unreflexively within the context of traditional growth paradigms. The aim of this article is to explore and critically examine neoliberal discourses on the green economy and smart growth by exploring contributions to debates on green economics proposed by ideas linked to post‐growth economies. Based on studies by scholars such as Tim Jackson and Serge Latouche, the article examines the contours of debates on post‐growth, décroissance (de‐growth) and prosperity without growth. We begin by examining growth debates and existing contributions by economic and other geographers to the exploration of alternatives to conventional growth‐centred economics. We then identify some emergent spatial facets of post‐growth transitions and utilize these to explore potential research topics and opportunities for empirical and conceptual contributions by economic geographers to academic and societal debates on economic transitions and post‐growth paradigms. Particular attention is paid to approaches currently discussed in economic geography, such as socio‐technical transition studies.     

Phase‐field modeling of epitaxial growth of polycrystalline quartz veins in hydrothermal experiments

Mineral precipitation in an open fracture plays a crucial role in the evolution of fracture permeability in rocks, and the microstructural development and precipitation rates are closely linked to fluid composition, the kind of host rock as well as temperature and pressure. In this study, we develop a continuum thermodynamic model to understand polycrystalline growth of quartz aggregates from the rock surface. The adapted multiphase‐field model takes into consideration both the absolute growth rate as a function of the driving force of the reaction (free energy differences between solid and liquid phases), and the equilibrium crystal shape (Wulff shape). In addition, we realize the anisotropic shape of the quartz crystal by introducing relative growth rates of the facets. The missing parameters of the model, including surface energy and relative growth rates, are determined by detailed analysis of the crystal shapes and crystallographic orientation of polycrystalline quartz aggregates in veins synthesized in previous hydrothermal experiments. The growth simulations were carried out for a single crystal and for grain aggregates from a rock surface. The single crystal simulation reveals the importance of crystal facetting on the growth rate; for example, growth velocity in the c‐axis direction drops by a factor of ~9 when the faceting is complete. The textures produced by the polycrystal simulations are similar to those observed in the hydrothermal experiments, including the number of surviving grains and crystallographic preferred orientations as a function of the distance from the rock wall. Our model and the methods to define its parameters provide a basis for further investigation of fracture sealing under varying conditions.     

信息化对中国区域经济的影响

本文从信息化设施和信息产业两方面来认识区域信息化水平,对中国各省区的信息化水平进行了定量估算和综合评价。在区域信息化水平测度的基础上,本文从以下两方面分析了信息化的区域影响。作为区域经济的一个部门,研究结果显示中国大部分省区信息产业与区域经济增长呈现了不同程度的正的相关性。文章重点分析了信息化设施溢出对区域经济的影响。运用相应的经济增长核算模型,分单区域和两区域研究信息化设施溢出对经济增长的贡献。估算结果显示信息化设施溢出的增长作用存在区域差异。在作用机制上,单区域信息化设施的溢出与两区域的情况也有差异。     

城市化空间增长上限确定的研究综述

本文从概念、理论及因素等方面对目前在城市化空间增长约束作用的特征进行了梳理,认为目前的研究存在着区域宏观尺度的把握较少、因素集成分析较少、缺乏直接针对城市用地本身与其他因素的相关关系分析等不足。笔者认为从约束角度开展对城市化空间增长上限的研究工作,关键是如何确定区域水资源安全容量、粮食安全下的耕地最小规模、可恢复条件下生态空间的最小规模或城市生产生活所需的最小生态空间规模等阈值,并提出城市化空间增长上限确定的方法和途径。     

Reconstructing age distribution,season of capture and growth rate of fish from archaeological sites based on otoliths and vertebrae

The growth increments of otoliths and vertebrae of plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) derived from a 15th century single depositional event at Raversijde (Belgium) are analysed with the aim of reconstructing (a) the age distribution of the population, (b) the season of capture, and (c) the growth rate. Otoliths and vertebrae give slightly different age distributions but it is possible to arrive at similar seasonality estimations in both structures when information from the literature and our own data from monthly captures of plaice from the North Sea are taken into account. These modern data show that the timing of annulus formation in otoliths and vertebrae is more or less similar. Back‐calculations on vertebrae and otoliths yield similar growth curves. The age distribution, the edge condition of both vertebrae and otoliths, and the growth rate obtained on the material from Raversijde all show that the plaice from the studied assemblage were captured during spring in the southern part of the North Sea. Vertebrae are commonly preserved in archaeological sites whereas otoliths rarely survive. Although they are more difficult to read than otoliths, vertebrae of plaice can be used for growth increment analyses, and the growth rates obtained from vertebrae from archaeological sites can, therefore, be compared in the future to growth data from modern otoliths studied in sea fisheries research. Archaeozoological material predating industrialized fishing since the 19th century can hence serve as a reference in the study of the compensatory response of commercially important species to heavy exploitation. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The great plains of the Central United States

Preliminary results from the Tanzanian census of 1988 are examined against the background of two decades of policies attempting to influence the distribution of population within the country. The overall rate of population increase has slowed down, as has the rate of urban population growth. However, the latter is very powerfully influenced by a significant reduction in the rate of growth in Dar es Salaam. Elsewhere, urban areas continue to grow very rapidly. Along with this pattern of population concentration, a degree of population dispersal is also evident, as a number of formerly lightly populated areas have recorded large percentage increases in population. A major cause for concern is that many of these areas have demonstrated various aspects of environmental degradation for some time. It is concluded that spatial planning policies have had only a limited impact upon the regional distribution of population in Tanzania in the 1978–88 period, and that ‘spontaneous’ processes have been far more significant.     

Does graduate human capital production increase local economic development? An instrumental variable approach

Using a survey on Italian graduates, we investigate whether universities' degree production affects the economic development of the regions where academic institutions are located. To deal with suspected endogeneity between human capital development and economic growth, we employ an instrumental variable approach, using a global lump sum transferred to each university as an instrument for human capital production. Once we control for the regional flow of mobile students and graduates, the findings reveal the beneficial effect of the university system on local economic development through the gain in human capital.     

How does transportation shape intrametropolitan growth? An answer from the Regional Express Rail

This paper analyzes the influence of transportation infrastructure, and in particular of the Regional Express Rail (RER), on employment and population growth in the Paris metropolitan area between 1968 and 2010. In order to make proper causal inference, we rely on historical instruments and control for all other transportation modes that could be complement or substitute to the RER. Our results show that proximity to an RER station increases employment and population density and, in particular, employment and population growth. The latter effects are higher in municipalities located near RER stations and close to employment (sub)centers. They are also found to be particularly strong for jobs in the service sector, for factory workers, and for highly educated population. We find no impact of the RER expansion on employment growth during the first part of the period, while the effect on population growth appears earlier but declines over time.     

湖南省区域趋同分析

根据区域趋同基本理论,采用新古典方法分析了湖南省区域趋同状况.结果表明,自我国实施社会主义市场经济体制以来,湖南省区域经济增长总体表现为条件趋同,趋同速度约为每年1.93%.受地理区位的影响,湖南省内部区域差异较大,国家发展政策对湖南省区域趋同的影响相当显著,例如,湘西自治州纳入西部大开发增强了湖南省区域增长的收敛性.而产业结构和投资状况对于区域经济增长的作用不强.在此基础上,提出几点促进湖南省区域趋同的对策.     

Limits of incremental growth in seasonality studies: The example of the clariid pectoral spines from the Byzantino-Islamic site of Apamea (Syria; sixth to seventh century AD)

An evaluation is given of the value for seasonality studies of incremental growth in the pectoral spines of the Nile catfish Clarias gariepinus. The subfossil spines used for this study are from a Byzantino-Islamic site in Syria, and probably all derive from animals captured on the floodplain during the yearly inundation of the nearby Orontes river, although only 45 per cent of the spines could be recognized as deriving from fish captured during that period. It is believed that the inability to date accurately the season of capture of the other specimens is due to disadvantages inherent in the growth cycle of the fish. For the moment it is possible to determine the season of death only of individuals that were taken during a period of rapid growth.     

人文地理研究能为制订国家政策作贡献：——以城市发展方针研究为例

本文综述了我国关于城市发展方针的争论和最新动态。作者以自己多年来围绕中国城市发展方针的研究为例,说明人文地理学能够为国家制订政策作贡献。其感受是要敢于面对问题;通过深入研究,有站得住脚的观点;要坚持不懈,不怕坐冷板凳。     

Beautiful city: Leisure amenities and urban growth

Modern urban economic theory and policymakers are coming to see the provision of consumer‐leisure amenities as a way to attract population, especially the highly skilled and their employers. However, past studies have arguably only provided indirect evidence of the importance of leisure amenities for urban development. In this paper, we propose and validate the number of tourist trips and the number of crowdsourced picturesque locations as measures of consumer revealed preferences for local lifestyle amenities. Urban population growth in the 1990–2010 period was about 10% points (about one standard deviation) higher in a metro area that was perceived as twice more picturesque. This measure ties with low taxes as the most important predictor of urban population growth. “Beautiful cities” disproportionally attracted highly educated individuals and experienced faster housing price appreciation, especially in supply‐inelastic markets. In contrast to the generally declining trend of the American central city, neighborhoods that were close to central recreational districts have experienced economic growth, although at the cost of minority displacement.     

Experimental study of polycrystal growth from an advecting supersaturated fluid in a model fracture

We present real‐time observations of polycrystal growth experiments in transmitted light in an accurately controlled flow system with the analogue material alum [KAl(SO₄)₂·12H₂O]. The aim of the experiments is to obtain a better insight into the evolution of vein microstructures. A first series of experiments shows the evolution of a polycrystal at supersaturations between 0.095 and 0.263. The average growth rate of the crystals is influenced by growth competition and the depletion of the solute along fracture length. Growth competition is controlled by crystallographic orientation, crystal size and crystal location. In addition, the growth rate of an individual crystal facet also shows variations depending on the facet index, facet size and flow velocity. These variations can influence the morphology of the grain boundaries and the microstructures. The aim of the second series of experiments is to investigate the growth evolution of rough/dissolved facets in detail. The growth distance required for the development of facets is around 15 μm. In all the experiments, we observe that the measured growth rates have a much larger range than predicted by alum single‐crystal growth kinetics. This is due to the combined effect of the facet index and the crystal size. Furthermore, at high supersaturations, the facet growth rate measurements do not fit the same growth rate equation as for the experiments at lower supersaturations (<0.176). This can be explained by a change in the growth mechanism at high supersaturations with more influence of volume diffusion, relative to advection of the bulk solution on the growth rate. This effect can also cause a more homogeneous sealing pattern over fracture length. At high supersaturations, the larger crystals in these experiments incorporate regularly spaced fluid inclusion bands and we propose that these can be used as an indicator for high palaeo‐supersaturation. The final microstructures of the experiments show no asymmetry with respect to the flow direction.