Managing flood risk in the UK: towards an integration of social and technical perspectives

In recent years, an apparent increase in the frequency and severity of floods in the UK has led to growing concerns about societal exposure and vulnerability to flooding, particularly in the context of climate change, floodplain development and changing insurance practices. Despite the important link between assessments of exposure to flooding (hazard assessments) and issues of societal vulnerability, this link has rarely been explored in detail and has often been reflected in policy terms by a highly technocratic approach to flood risk management. Indeed, more comprehensive studies have usually favoured rigid and deterministic definitions of vulnerability, in keeping with the wider technocratic paradigm pervading management institutions. In an attempt to redress the balance, this paper considers the role of hazard assessment and issues of societal vulnerability as mutually informative debates and advocates a movement away from the technocratic ideals currently favoured in the UK.     

Perceptions of Risk among Households in Two Australian Coastal Communities

There is limited knowledge of risk perceptions in coastal communities despite their vulnerability to a range of risks including the impacts of climate change. A survey of 400 households in two Australian coastal communities, combined with semi‐structured interviews, provides insight into household perceptions of the relative importance of climatic and non‐climatic risks and the subsequent risk priorities that may inform household adaptive action. In contrast to previous research, the results demonstrated that geographic location and household characteristics might not affect perceptions of vulnerability to environmental hazards. However, past experience was a significant influence, raising the priority of environmental concerns. Overall, the results highlight the priority concerns of coastal households (from finance, to health and environment) and suggest to increase the profile of climate issues in coastal communities climate change strategies need to better demonstrate links between climate vulnerability and other household concerns. Furthermore, promoting generic capacities in isolation from understanding the context in which households construe climate risks is unlikely to yield the changes required to decrease the vulnerability of coastal communities.     

Spatial and temporal variation in vulnerability of crop production to drought in southern Alberta

Growing evidence of global climate change has led to global concerns over the vulnerability of agriculture to drought. Located in a semiarid environment, southern Alberta has suffered significant losses of agricultural productivity due to drought hazards in recent decades. Understanding the relationship between crop production and drought conditions is essential for coping with increasingly uncertain climate conditions. This study attempts to quantify the magnitude of crop production vulnerability to drought in southern Alberta. The standard precipitation index is used to measure drought stress in the region. The empirical results provide a detailed picture of the spatial variation in crop production vulnerability to varying drought conditions. Vulnerability maps from this study reveal that pockets in the study area may experience significant productivity loss given the existing level of adaptive capacity. While the irrigation districts have been associated with a lower level of vulnerability than dryland outside the irrigated region, uncertain water supply under varying climatic conditions coupled with increasing water allocation for non‐agricultural uses may increase the vulnerability in these districts.     

Compelled to Compete: Rendering Climate Change Vulnerability Investable

The imperative for vulnerable populations to adapt to greater environmental variability is increasing in lockstep with the onset of wide-ranging climate change impacts. However, while critical adaptation research emphasizes the necessity of addressing the underlying drivers of vulnerability to climate change, mainstream approaches to adaptation stress economic growth as a prerequisite for climate responses. Accordingly, capital-intensive adaptation measures promote competitiveness to spur economic growth in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, where more than 18 million people face environmental hazards such as seawater intrusion, flood, drought and cyclones. This study evaluates competitiveness as a mandate for effective climate change adaptation. It finds that adaptation can advance either competition or vulnerability reduction, but it cannot logically or pragmatically pursue both.     

The dynamic nature of social disadvantage: implications for hazard exposure and vulnerability in Greater Vancouver

Urbanization and re-urbanization continually alter spatial patterns of social disadvantage and hazard exposure, which in turn affect social vulnerability. The current study explores vulnerability to hazards in Greater Vancouver over a 15-year period (1986 to 2001). Results illustrate how social disadvantage is multi-dimensional and emerges from the social geography of a city. The study illustrates the speed with which both the structure and spatial patterns of social disadvantage can change in cities experiencing rapid growth or redevelopment. The study also suggests that Greater Vancouver does not display consistent patterns of minority- or income-based environmental inequity in hazard exposure, which raises questions about the role of various policies in ameliorating vulnerability to natural and technological hazards .     

Climate change perceptions and responses in Scotland's ski industry

The negative impacts of climate change for the ski industry have been well documented. However, research has largely focused on key ski markets in North America and Continental Europe. The study presented in this paper addresses climate change perceptions and responses in the more marginal ski destination of Scotland. Using a qualitative, interpretivist methodology, this paper contributes through a local-scale, single-site study of a ski area where technical adaptations are not utilised and which therefore relies on business responses to climate change. Findings suggest that while local weather is perceived to be a large and unmanageable risk to the industry, and a downward trend is identified in terms of snow reliability, these risks are not perceived to be connected to the wider anthropogenic climate change discourse. Waiting for knowledge to increase before taking adaptive action appears to be the most popular business strategy; however, autonomous adaptation is taking place in the form of business diversification, which mitigates against risks including, but not limited to, climate change. This paper concludes that experiences and perceptions of climate change will be highly localised and as a result so too will adaptive behaviours. Marginal ski destinations such as Scotland will be facing a range of non-climatic impacts which will contribute to their contextual vulnerability to climate change and capacity to adapt.     

Extreme weather events in northeastern New Brunswick (Canada) for the period 1950–2012: Comparison of newspaper archive and weather station data

In the context of global warming, changes in extreme weather and climate events are expected, particularly those associated with changes in temperature and precipitation regimes and those that will affect coastal areas. The main objectives of this study were to establish the number of extreme events that have occurred in northeastern New Brunswick, Canada in recent history, and to determine whether their occurrence has increased. By using archived regional newspapers and data from three meteorological stations in a national network, the frequency of extreme events in the study area was established for the time period 1950–2012. Of the 282 extreme weather events recorded in the newspaper archives, 70% were also identified in the meteorological time series analysis. The discrepancy might be explained by the synergistic effect of co‐occurring non‐extreme events, and increased vulnerability over time, resulting from more people and infrastructure being located in coastal hazard zones. The Mann Kendall and Pettitt statistical tests were used to identify trends and the presence of break points in the weather data time series. Results indicate a statistically significant increase in average temperatures and in the number of extreme events, such as extreme hot days, as well as an increase in total annual and extreme precipitation. A significant decrease in the number of frost‐free days and extreme cold days was also found, in addition to a decline in the number of dry days.     

Assessing Socio‐Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts and Environmental Hazards in New South Wales and Queensland,Australia

This article systematically reviews and synthesises academic, peer‐reviewed literature to assess the state of knowledge concerning socio‐economic vulnerability to climate change impacts and environmental hazards in New South Wales and Queensland, Australia. It focuses upon empirical research that identifies socio‐economic factors associated with vulnerable subpopulations. Using systematic review methods, 35 articles met the inclusion criteria. These articles are analysed according to their general characteristics, the methods used, and the factors reported to be associated with socio‐economic vulnerability. This body of evidence reveals that (1) the majority of the knowledge about socio‐economic vulnerability in New South Wales and Queensland has only recently emerged; (2) more knowledge has been published about Queensland; and (3) extreme temperature is the most researched environmental hazard. Despite increased research activity over time, the number of factors repeatedly demonstrated to influence socio‐economic vulnerability is small. Age, gender, place of residence, and pre‐existing illness were the most commonly reported factors, although the influence of these factors upon socio‐economic vulnerability is complex. There is scope to extend the empirical research base across a broader range of climate‐related hazards and to better link findings from the domains of climate change vulnerability and population health.     

Developments in flood maps for flood risk management in Scotland

ABSTRACT

Sustainable flood risk management in Scotland is underpinned by the Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act 2009. Effective delivery of actions to reduce the adverse impact of flooding are dependent on a collaborative approach by Responsible Authorities and a common understanding of flood hazard and risk. Over the last few decades, flood hazard maps have established a prominent role as essential tools in supporting effective flood risk management. They have developed as a result of improved national datasets and advances in computer processing. Improvements in modelling confidence and in the spatial representation of hazard and risk-inform confident actions set out in Flood Risk Management Strategies that coordinate actions supporting adaptation to future hazard conditions. The continued development of the accurate spatial representation of flood hazard and risk is an essential component of enhancing resilience in the face of future climate change.     

Sustained drought,vulnerability and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

With climate change projections indicating a likely future increase in extreme weather phenomena, it is an urgent matter to assess the effect of drought on civil conflict. However, studies of this relationship so far provide inconclusive findings. One reason for this inconsistency is that existing research has not sufficiently taken into account the local vulnerability and coping capacity that condition the effect of drought. In particular, the exposure to sustained droughts undermines alternative coping mechanisms of individuals. Moreover, reliance on rainfed agriculture for income and food provision renders individuals particularly vulnerable to droughts. Based on these observations, I suggest that areas experiencing sustained droughts or depending on rainfed agriculture are more likely to see civil conflict following drought as individuals in these regions are more likely to partake in rebellion in order to redress economic grievances or to obtain food and income. Using novel high-resolution data on civil conflict events in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1989 to 2008, this paper evaluates the relationship between sustained drought, rainfed agriculture and civil conflict violence at the subnational level. In line with the argument, areas with rainfed croplands see an increased risk of civil conflict violence following drought. There is also some support for the proposition that areas experiencing sustained droughts have a higher risk of conflict. The results are robust to a wide range of model specifications.     

Transboundary river governance and climate vulnerability: Community perspectives in Nepal’s Koshi river basin

Frequent floods in the Koshi River have left the Nepalese vulnerable to erosion and recurring inundation—especially those living on the floodplains. The situation is worsening because water flow in the river is highly uncertain, affected by rainfall in the mountains and by climate change, and influenced by the Koshi barrage, which is governed by the Koshi River Agreement, a bilateral river agreement with India. This study addresses how Koshi River governance contributes to the vulnerability of riverine communities in Nepal by drawing upon ideas about vulnerability and vulnerability mapping. A household survey and interviews were conducted in 2015 for a comparative study of people living on two river islands located upstream and downstream of the barrage. Findings remain relevant because of persistent governance challenges and growing climate change effects, escalating islanders’ vulnerability to recurrent floods. The islanders’ vulnerability was produced locally and also shaped by historical, social, economic, political, geographical, and ecological processes occurring at multiple scales. That insight highlights the need to study the broader political economy of hazard production to understand vulnerability in the context of governance.     

On exposure,vulnerability and violence: Spatial distribution of risk factors for climate change and violent conflict across Kenya and Uganda

Recent studies discuss the link between climate change and violent conflict, especially for East Africa. While there is extensive literature on the question whether climate change increases the risk of violent conflict onset, not much is known about where a climate-conflict link is most likely to be found. We address this question by analyzing the spatial distribution of the factors commonly associated with a high exposure and vulnerability to climate change, and a high risk of violent conflict onset in Kenya and Uganda. Drawing on recent literature and quantitative data for the period 1998–2008, we develop various specifications of a composite risk index (CRI) with a spatial resolution of half a degree for Kenya and Uganda in the year 2008. A quantitative comparison with conflict data for the year 2008 provides support for the composite risk index. Finally, the composite risk index is contrasted with the findings of three qualitative case studies, which provide mixed support for the index and help to identify its strengths and weaknesses as well as conceptual needs for further quantitative studies on climate change and violent conflict.     

旅游气候研究进展与启示

气候是旅游发展的重要因子。近年来,局部地区恶劣气候频繁出现,旅游业发展受到影响。总结国内外旅游气候研究进展,国外研究主要集中于旅游目的地气候条件对旅游业发展、旅游者行为的影响和人类旅游活动对气候的现实和潜在的影响;国内研究则集中在气候旅游资源和旅游地气候舒适度两方面。总的看来,国内外旅游气候研究的中心议题都围绕着气候是旅游业的影响要素,主要贡献有气候是包括自然旅游资源在内的资源形成背景;特殊的气象景观和优良的气候条件是旅游地重要吸引物,进而影响到旅游者决策行为,因此气候调查和分析应视为旅游规划的前提。     

Global Change and Southern Africa

The developing nations of southern Africa have previously been identified as vulnerable to the vagaries of global change, particularly in terms of future climate change. This paper explores recent climate change scenarios for the region in terms of some representative sectors of the environment‐society interface, namely biodiversity, agriculture and related land uses, water resources and health issues. It is concluded that the impacts of predicted climate changes over the next century are likely to be very marked indeed. Biome distribution, agriculture, rangelands and water resources are highlighted as being negatively impacted in ways that will increase the vulnerability of the great majority of the region's population to natural hazards. The potential impact of these changes on the prolific biodiversity of southern Africa is clear. Holistic policy responses, incorporating both environmental and human development concerns, are required in the near future if a crisis is to be averted.     

Dry times: hard lessons from the Canadian drought of 2001 and 2002

Droughts are one of the world's most significant natural hazards. They have major impacts on the economy, environment, health and society. In 2001 and 2002, many regions within Canada experienced unprecedented drought conditions, or conditions unseen for at least 100 years in some regions. This article draws upon a national assessment of this drought with particular attention to its implications for the agriculture and water sectors, although some attention is also devoted to other sectors. The study's methodology involves a comprehensive inter-disciplinary, cause–effect integrated framework as a basis to explore the characteristics of drought and the associated biological and physical impacts and socio-economic consequences. Numerous primary and secondary sources of data were used, including public and semi-public sources such as Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Environment Canada, Statistics Canada, Crop Insurance Corporations and provincial governments, as well as phone interviews, focus groups, print media surveys and economic modelling. Evidence indicates that the risk of drought is increasing as demands for food and water relentlessly climb and the manifestations of climate change become more apparent. The key to better dealing with drought lies in taking the steps necessary to enhance our adaptive capacity and decrease vulnerability.     

An exploration of regional climate change scenarios for Scotland

Based on a high resolution regional climate model (RCM) experiment, a climate change scenario for Scotland for the end of this century is constructed with the aim of exploring the added value of utilising a regional rather than a global model (GCM) for climate change scenario construction. Spatial variations in regional seasonal average temperature and precipitation change are analysed and the local response of ‘extreme’ weather events to climate warming is assessed using daily model output. The analyses suggest that in comparison with the GCM, the RCM does not provide fundamentally different patterns of seasonal climate change and daily weather response over Scotland, although it does capture more subtle spatial variations in these changes. The RCM also simulates more realistic daily weather events than the GCM, although the relative changes in the frequencies of daily extremes are not greatly different. However, with the limited length of the single model simulation analysed here, it is not easy to establish how robust and significant are the sub‐national patterns of climate response across Scotland. To improve the quality and comprehensiveness of regional climate change scenario information, a number of research issues remain to be addressed.     

Fixing a Swamp of Cobras: The Clash between Capital and Water in Shaping Urban Vulnerabilities

This paper addresses how capital can refashion landscapes and patterns of risk and vulnerability. Drawing on the emblematic case of the conversion of Thailand’s Cobra Swamp into Suvarnabhumi International Airport we argue that there is a fundamental clash between the internal logic of capital accumulation and the ecology of water that occurs in places in which land is under water for much of the year. Counterintuitively investment in public infrastructure such as airports targets locations that are exposed to flood risks. While the literature on capital fixes tends to treat “land” writ large, this paper adds a dimension that has been overlooked in the theoretical work, by highlighting the significance of the ecology of the land in which such fixes occur as a means of understanding patterns of investment, land use change and vulnerability. Our analysis draws on three separate but related concepts of capital “fixes”—spatial, technological and high/low road fixes. We argue the importance of recognising the specific ecological characteristics of land that capital “fixes”. This perspective has global significance in providing critical insight into the ways in which capital creates and accommodates the kinds of vulnerabilities and risks associated with climate change.     

Assessing Seismic Social Vulnerability in Urban Centers — the Case-Study of Nablus,Palestine

ABSTRACT

Seismic risk depends on three factors: seismic hazard, exposure of assets and communities, and vulnerability—physical and social. Whereas hazard and exposure are harder to act upon, vulnerability can be significantly reduced, if properly characterized for each asset, population, or society in general. This article assesses the social vulnerability and resilience level of the city of Nablus, an important urban center in Palestine. The region, considerably exposed to seismic hazard, features, from the in-built view point, very recent or very old historical buildings, without seismic design provisions. On the socio-economic side, the well-known political conflicts and societal challenges are key vulnerability factors. The method employed was based on Social Vulnerability Indicators (SoVI) extracted from census data, integrated with the more recent SCORECARD approach, which was applied to the urban community of Nablus. The goal was both to obtain an overall vulnerability score for the city and to characterize internal differences among its main areas, connected to its historical urban expansion and patterns. The results show that both physical and social vulnerability can be related and that the city development patterns can mirror the relative social vulnerability.     

Development of a Methodology for the Assessment of Vulnerability Related to Wildland Fires Using a Multi‐Criteria Evaluation

In the geography of risk, vulnerability may be defined as a physical characteristic that describes the tendency of a territory to suffer damage as a result of the occurrence of certain phenomena. According to this synthetic definition, there are two main components of vulnerability in the context of wildland fires. The first is internal, and is related to the effects of fires on the value of the affected assets affected and their capacity for recovery. The second is external, and is related to the characteristics of fires and the ability of society to deal with the hazards of wildland fires. The aim of the present study is to develop an assessment of spatial vulnerability in the context of wildland fires, at a scale appropriate for planning (1/25 000), in a mountainous region of the Spanish Mediterranean coast (Sierra Calderona). The proposed methodology entailed the definition of a synthetic index associated with the management of the risk of wildland fires, which was made up of significant factors such as the difficulty of extinction, the need for forest defence, the need for civil protection, and territorial value. To define and calculate the factors, variables and indicators that reflected aspects of the components of vulnerability (such as exposure, sensitivity, and the capacity to fight fires) were used. These were combined in a hierarchical structure, each having its own cartographical representation. Geographical information systems and multi‐criteria evaluation were then used to provide a successful framework for the analysis of vulnerability in relation to wildland fires. The cartographical outputs of the various components of the index are of particular interest to the planning of certain activities (e.g. forest, wildland fire, and civil protection), all of which are directly involved in the management of risk. In turn, the final synthetic index provides comprehensive spatial information that is useful for spatial planning and also enables the assessment of potential future land use in view of its usefulness in simulations.