The Use of Expert Judgments in Predicting Interregional Migration Patterns: An Analytic Hierarchy Approach

This paper presents an application of Saaty's analytic hierarchy process to the prediction of interregional migration patterns. This application is an example of how Saaty's method can be used in analyzing geographic problems to synthesize the results of theoretical models with the judgments of experts and policymakers. After discussing the basic theory behind Saaty's method and how expert judgments can be inserted into the Tobler-Dorigo migration model, the results of an application of this model to predict migrations between the nine U.S. census regions for the 1965–70 period are used to illustrate the basic steps in this approach.     

An Analysis of Migration Streams for the Canadian Regional System, 1952–1983 1. Migration Probabilities

This is part one of a two-part series that seeks to specify the factors and processes contributing to aggregate change in the Canadian population distribution over the recent past. In part one, we use a model of migration probabilities to identify socioeconomic factors that explain the observed interregional migration flows. In part two, we use an adjustment process for our regional population system to calculate equilibrium population distributions. The estimated migration probabilities of part one are essential for this calculation, thus linking equilibria with the socioeconomic factors previously identified. Disequilibrium, defined as the difference between observed and equilibrium population distributions, is then used to infer relative growth and decline tendencies in the system. We examine and justify our results in the larger context of contemporary Canadian history.     

An Analysis of Migration Streams for the Canadian Regional System, 1952–1983: 2. Disequilibrium

This is part two of a two-part series that seeks to specify the factors and processes contributing to aggregate change in the Canadian population distribution over the recent past. In part one, we use a model of migration probabilities to identify socioeconomic factors that explain the observed interregional migration flows. In part two, we use an adjustment process for our regional population system to calculate equilibrium population distributions. The estimated migration probabilities of part one are essential for this calculation, thus linking equilibria with the socioeconomic factors previously identified. Disequilibrium, defined as the difference between observed and equilibrium population distributions, is then used to infer relative growth and decline tendencies in the system. We examine and justify our results in the larger context of contemporary Canadian history.     

Migration discipline hijacked: distances and interruptions of a research militancy

Abstract

In this paper we reflect on some instruments to interrupt the governmentalization of knowledge production at play in migration studies – mainstream, critical, and radical alike. We take knowledge production as the struggle-field where confronting, resisting, and interrupting the disciplining of migrations that arises from their academic and governmental incorporation as objects (of research and of policies). In contrast, we sketch a political epistemology of migrations, asking: which knowledge practices and interventions account for the contestedness migrations spark, and for the turbulence, excess, and upheavals migrants trigger? The paper discusses two of such paths. First, we sketch an approach to research that works ‘within and against’ the distances that perform and define migration field-sites and their pristine subject positions; second, we argue for the development and deployment of interruptions against those unquestioned chains of equivalences that are embedded in migration knowledge. Building on our engagement with Libyan war refugees in Tunisia and in Italy, we reflect on how these instruments somehow bring scholarly knowledge to its limits while working within its premises.     

Intimate mobilities: emotional embodiment and queer migration

This paper offers theoretically-informed empirical insights into queer migration in the contemporary West. Understanding the rationales, patterns and outcomes of migration is important for scholars researching the life experiences of gay men, lesbians and other non-heterosexuals. This paper advances knowledge of queer migration by interpreting interview data from thirty-seven gay and lesbian Australians. The analysis is prompted by a qualitative and narrative turn in migration studies, and the urgings of new mobility studies to account for the embodied and emotional dimensions of migration. Interrogating gay and lesbian Australians' migration narratives over the life course, I scrutinise the emotionally embodied nature of queer migration. I focus on the body as a vector of displacement, and explore how emotions, desires and intimate attachments shape queer mobilities. Respondents particularly emphasised the roles of ‘comfort’ and ‘love’ in relocation decisions. I found that these feelings interleaved with three patterns of emotionally embodied queer migration in the data—coming out, gravitational and relationship migrations. The embodied affects of comfort played a key role in coming out and gravitational migrations, while the exigencies of love underpinned relationship migration.     

MIGRATION AND NARRATION: HOW EUROPEAN HISTORIANS IN THE NINETEENTH AND EARLY TWENTIETH CENTURIES TOLD THE HISTORY OF HUMAN MASS MIGRATIONS OR VÖLKERWANDERUNGEN

Historians’ interest in the history of human migrations is not limited to recent years. Migrations had already figured as explanatory factors in connection with cultural and historical change in the work of classical and ancient studies scholars of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. In the writings of these scholars, migrations acted as historical landmarks or epochal thresholds and played a key role in the construction of geo-historical areas. This model has been called “migrationism” and cannot be explained simply on the basis of the history of individual disciplines, but must be seen in its complex interaction with scientific and historical contexts. However, “migrationism” does not relate to fixed political and scientific positions or movements. For this reason, it cannot be explained adequately by using a historically or ideologically based approach. Relying on narratological approaches, this article examines migration narratives that historians of this period used to explain the rise and fall of ancient civilizations. Referring to contemporary historiographical representations of the ancient Near East, it distinguishes three main narratives that are still common today: narratives of foundation, narratives of destruction, and narratives of mixtures. In this sense, analyzing older migration narratives helps us to sharpen the critical view on the genealogy of our own views on the history—and present—of human migrations.     

Large carnivore attacks on hominins during the Pleistocene: a forensic approach with a Neanderthal example

Interaction between hominins and carnivores has been common and constant through human evolution and generated mutual pressures similar to those present in worldwide modern human-carnivore conflicts. This current interaction is sometimes violent and can be reflected in permanent skeletal pathologies and other bone modifications. In the present paper, we carry out a survey of 124 forensic cases of dangerous human-carnivore encounters. The objective is to infer direct hominin-carnivore confrontation during the Pleistocene, which is important to understand behavioral changes during human evolution. In addition, the case of Neanderthals is analyzed in order to find evidence of past attacks using forensic observations. The results obtained pose that Neanderthals could potentially have been involved in dangerous encounters during the Pleistocene, validating our methodology to approach past attacks from a forensic perspective.     

Biosocial archaeology of the Early Neolithic: Synthetic analyses of a human skeletal population from the LBK cemetery of Vedrovice,Czech Republic

Bioarchaeology is a powerful tool in the examination of prehistoric collections of human skeletal remains. Application of a few bioarchaeological techniques (ancient DNA, carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes, and dental micro-wear) to the human osteological remains from the Early Neolithic LBK settlement of Vedrovice (Moravia), has allowed us to reconstruct not only broad cultural patterns but also the life histories of the individuals with insights into diet, migrations, ancestry, personal identity, social position and life experience. Vedrovice acted as a gateway settlement for a farming community with close ties to western Hungary and northeast Bohemia. The individuals showed clear differences in status and migration histories, giving glimpses of more complex social practices and patterns than could have been determined through the traditional culture-historical studies.     

古村落旅游移民社会融合结构及其影响因素研究——以世界文化遗产宏村为例

新世纪以来古村落已发展成为深受游客喜爱的大众旅游地,在吸引大量游客纷至沓来的同时,也吸引了一些外来人口在此常住与工作,形成旅游移民。以世界文化遗产宏村为研究案例,在实地问卷调查的基础上探讨其旅游移民社会融合结构及融合现状。结果表明：①宏村旅游移民社会融合包含4个维度,分别为文化融合、心理融合、身份融合和经济融合。②宏村旅游移民整体社会融合度不高;其中,心理融合最好,公因子得分达到3.57分;其次是文化融合与身份融合,融合度均未达到中等水平,且文化融合维度的内部离散性较强;最后是经济融合,其融合度最低,移民经济收入未达到预期水平。③影响宏村旅游移民社会融合的主要因素分为个人因素和迁入地因素,其中迁入地因素影响程度大于个人因素。最后对古村落旅游移民社会融合的特征进行了讨论。     

Mobility and Social Change: Understanding the European Neolithic Period after the Archaeogenetic Revolution

This paper discusses and synthesizes the consequences of the archaeogenetic revolution to our understanding of mobility and social change during the Neolithic period in Europe (6500–2000 BC). In spite of major obstacles to a productive integration of archaeological and anthropological knowledge with ancient DNA data, larger changes in the European gene pool are detected and taken as indications for large-scale migrations during two major periods: the Early Neolithic expansion into Europe (6500–4000 BC) and the third millennium BC “steppe migration.” Rather than massive migration events, I argue that both major genetic turnovers are better understood in terms of small-scale mobility and human movement in systems of population circulation, social fission and fusion of communities, and translocal interaction, which together add up to a large-scale signal. At the same time, I argue that both upticks in mobility are initiated by the two most consequential social transformations that took place in Eurasia, namely the emergence of farming, animal husbandry, and sedentary village life during the Neolithic revolution and the emergence of systems of centralized political organization during the process of urbanization and early state formation in southwest Asia.

     

Estimating Migration Flows from Birthplace‐Specific Population Stocks of Infants

When adequate data on migration are unavailable, demographers infer such data indirectly, usually by turning to residual methods of estimating net migration. This paper sets out and illustrates an inferential method that uses population totals in the first age group of birthplace‐specific counts of residents in each region of a multiregional system to indirectly infer the entire age schedule of directional age‐specific migration flows. Specifically, it uses an estimate of infant migration that is afforded by a count of infants enumerated in a region other than their region of birth to infer all other age‐specific migration flows. Since infants migrate with their parents, the migration propensities of both are correlated, and the general stability of the age profiles of migration schedules then allows the association to be extended to all other age groups.     

快速城市化背景下广州五眼桥涌地区河涌环境演化研究——基于人类活动变迁的微观视角

在河口三角洲地区,河流是与人类活动关系最为密切的自然元素。本研究选取位于珠江三角洲核心区的广州市五眼桥涌地区为典型案例,通过实地调查、标图和深度访谈,结合相关的统计资料和历史文献,解析了快速城市化背景下珠江三角洲河涌环境的演化过程及动力机制,并分析了人-河关系的演进。研究发现案例地的河涌环境在地貌形态和水环境方面都发生了剧烈变化;城市河涌环境演化的主要动力来自于社会生产层面和个人生活层面的人类活动变迁。案例地人与河涌关系的演进经历了亲密和谐、对立隔离、重塑改善三个阶段。     

拉丁美洲与加勒比地区的国际移民——兼论中国移民的生存发展空间

通过对拉美历史上四次国际移民历史和趋向的发展变化、非法移民及其原因、移民侨汇对国民经济的重大影响、移民跨国中小企业的形成与发展等方面的分析,探讨了拉丁美洲与加勒比地区国际移民的历史、现状以及中国移民在这一地区的生存与发展空间。     

Modelling site formation dynamics: geoarchaeological,chronometric and statistical approaches to a stratified rockshelter sequence,Polynesia

Formation processes and chronology are central to many archaeological endeavours, and accuracy in the latter is dependent on control of the former. Here we consider how to integrate geoarchaeological and chronometric evidence to better understand the formational history, along with the timing and duration of cultural activities, at a regionally significant site in the southern Cook Islands (Polynesia) which dates from ∼12th century AD. Initially we model natural and cultural processes of deposition using geoarchaeological evidence. The results are integrated with 21 radiocarbon dates, including nine new AMS results on identified medium and short-lived materials. Sample outliers are identified manually and statistically and a Bayesian analysis helps to refine age estimates for the site's 12 stratigraphic zones. The timing and rate of sediment accumulation is further considered through an age–depth model. Finally, the chronology developed from these combined approaches is used to address three key processes: 1) initial site use, potentially relevant to human colonisation of this Polynesian island and archipelago; 2) on-site activities and patterns of resource use; and 3) major marine deposition events which disrupted cultural activities and may have palaeoclimatological significance. The approach developed here potentially has utility elsewhere, particularly where human activities are recurrent and of limited duration.     

Agent-based simulation of the spatial evolution of the historical population in China

This paper presents an agent-based simulation (ABS) and cellular automata (CA) coupled model to simulate the spatial evolution of the population of China over the past 2000 years. In the model, agents are used to simulate individuals who live in a geographic environment represented by the CA. The choice to migrate is influenced by climate change, potential agricultural productivity change, and waves of mass migrations. Using the simulation, we can observe the spatial evolution of the population, as well as the shift of the population center of gravity, and we can analyze the driving forces of these changing spatial patterns.     

Advances in Polynesian Prehistory: A Review and Assessment of the Past Decade (1993–2004)

The pace of archaeological research in Polynesia has intensified in recent years, resulting in more than 500 new literature citations over the past decade. Fieldwork has continued in such previously well-studied archipelagoes as Tonga and Samoa in Western Polynesia, and Hawai’i and New Zealand in Eastern Polynesia, and has expanded into previously neglected islands including Niue, the Equatorial Islands, the Austral Islands, and Mangareva. The emergence of Ancestral Polynesian culture out of its Eastern Lapita predecessor is increasingly well understood, and the chronology of Polynesian dispersal and expansion into Eastern Polynesia has engaged several researchers. Aside from these fundamental issues of origins and chronology, major research themes over the past decade include (1) defining the nature, extent, and timing of long-distance interaction spheres, particularly in Eastern Polynesia; (2) the impacts of human colonization and settlement on island ecosystems; (3) variation in Polynesian economic systems and their transformations over time; and (4) sociopolitical change, especially as viewed through the lens of household or microscale archaeology. Also noteworthy is the rapidly evolving nature of interactions between archaeologists and native communities, a critical aspect of archaeological practice in the region.

THE FLIGHT FROM THE FEN: THE PREHISTORIC MIGRATIONS OF THE BOIKEN OF THE EAST SEPIK PROVINCE,PAPUA NEW GUINEA

This paper has two goals. Its specific aim is to establish the prehistoric migrations of the Boiken people of the East Sepik Province, Papua New Guinea, using a large corpus of Boiken settlement histories supplemented by linguistic, genetic, and ecological data. In the course of the analysis, a method of applying cluster techniques to detect underlying directional patterns in settlement histories is demonstrated. The migration history thus revealed fits well with the picture of Middle Sepik prehistory emerging from recent geoarchaeological research. At a more general level, the paper seeks to verify that the spatial aspects of Boiken settlement traditions are indeed historically accurate. This finding is of intrinsic importance for anyone attempting to understand the construction of ethno-historical knowledge, and particularly for regional analysts and historical ethnographers, who are often faced with reconstructing the diachronic dimensions of ethnography in regions of New Guinea where archaeological research is little developed. In the case of the Boiken, the migrations that emerge from ethnohistory help resolve the puzzle of why the symbolic culture of the Ndu-speaking Yangoru Boiken exhibits much closer affinities to that of the Torricelli-speaking Mountain Arapesh than that of any Ndu-speaking group, including some of the Boiken dialect groups to the southeast.     

POTENTIALS FOR MIGRATION AND MOBILITY AMONG OIL WORKERS IN THE RUSSIAN NORTH

High population mobility, mainly in the form of out-migration, is a characteristic feature of the post-Soviet Russian North. As subsidies from the centre were significantly cut, living standards and the number of inhabitants in many Russian peripheries declined considerably. Nevertheless, there are also prospering regions and industry sectors in these parts of Russia, which are often related to and dependent on the exploitation of natural resources. After introducing general Soviet and post-Soviet mobility and migration patterns in the north of Russia, this article examines the mobility behaviour of oil workers. The analyses are based on a case study of an oil company (SeverTEK) from the Komi Republic and incorporate different statistical approaches. The purpose of the study is to assess past, present and future mobility behaviour of those in northern regions who are benefitting from post-Soviet transition and will most likely contribute most to a positive development of the Russian North. The results show that the surveyed employees of SeverTEK have migrated in the past mainly from Siberia, the Far East, and the now independent countries of the former Soviet Union to northern and central parts of European Russia. The present mobility behaviour is strongly characteristic of shift work employment with long-distance commuting. An analysis of intended migration indentifies strong potentials for future migrations among the oil workers of the case study. It appears that many employees are ready to leave northern regions as soon as their job situation allows it. Therefore, unlike in other resource peripheries such as Western Australia, long-distance commuting is in Russia not used as a decentralization measure; instead it offers opportunities for reducing the problematically high population density of the post-Soviet North.     

From dates to demography in later prehistoric Ireland? Experimental approaches to the meta-analysis of large C data-sets

We present a series of iterative methods to examine the problems associated with summed probability functions (SPFs) based on archaeological radiocarbon data. As a case study we use an SPF generated from a substantial radiocarbon data-set from the Irish Later Bronze and Iron Ages. We use simple numerical methods to show that real patterns can be deciphered from SPFs that can be used to trace and evaluate patterns of change. However, our results suggest that SPFs should not be used as a simple index of past human activity.     

From ‘flight and expulsion’ to migration: contextualizing German victims of forced migration

Abstract

The forced migration of twelve million Germans was central to German memory after 1945, and reflects fundamental changes in remembering the Second World War, that is, refocusing from German victims, such as expellees, to the victims of Germany in the Holocaust. Within this discourse, ‘flight and expulsion’ demonstrates Germany’s entangledness with her eastern neighbours and is turned into a European and transnational mnemonic discourse with the debates over a ‘Centre against Expulsions’ in the 2000s. This article studies ‘flight and expulsion’ between two mnemonic patterns, that is, the loss of the homeland against migration. After the collective imagination of a lost homeland in the east, the emerging Holocaust memory both marginalized ‘flight and expulsion’ in the late 1970s and introduced new patterns of commemoration. These patterns enabled a turn toward individual victimhood and the decontextualization of ‘flight and expulsion’ from the Second World War. The ‘Centre against Expulsions’ project demonstrates the coordination of the German example with other cases of forced migration and the claim for a universal commemoration of past expulsion and the condemnation of any future attempts. The case of Syrian civil-war refugees, however, reveals that such forms of decontextualization only in part transfer into humanitarian imperatives.