Variabilité et fréquence des cycles de gel‐dégel dans la région de Québec, 1977–2006

Freeze‐thaw cycles are most common at the beginning or near the end of the winter season. These cycles have various effects on the ecosystems of Eastern Canada, affecting both biotic and abiotic components of temperate cold environments. Using air temperature minima and maxima from four meteorological stations close to Québec City, we determined the frequency of daily freeze‐thaw cycles for the last 30 years. The results show no significant increase in the number of freeze‐thaw cycles despite a small increase in air temperature. Polynomial curves describing the relationship between mean air temperatures and the number of freeze‐thaw cycles were calculated. Based on these equations and anticipating a climate change scenario, we projected future freeze‐thaw cycles. Assuming a 5 °C increase in mean air temperatures by 2100, we estimated that the number of days with a freeze‐thaw cycle could increase by approximately 20 days per winter. The increase in the number of such cycles will be concentrated during the coldest months of the winter (January and February).     

From interdisciplinary to inter‐epistemological approaches: Confronting the challenges of integrated climate change research

Spurred by the literature on climate change and its calls for undertaking holistic research that more fully integrates the work of biophysical and social scientists, this article responds to the question: To what extent has climate change research in Canada embraced and been guided by the theories and tenets associated with interdisciplinarity and to what extent have integrated approaches been sensitive to cross‐cultural perspectives? It provides an overview of some of the epistemological issues raised in the interdisciplinarity literature that particularly impact research development and design. Furthermore, since much of the climate change literature that claims to be integrated or interdisciplinary draws from Indigenous Knowledge (IK), additional insights are provided from this perspective. The article develops a framework that can be used to undertake and/or evaluate research in a way that acknowledges “upstream” epistemological issues. The framework is then used to evaluate a comprehensive database (n = 282) of Canadian climate change articles. It is argued that an interdisciplinary approach adds a critical voice to the literature on integrated climate change research and is valuable because of its focus on epistemology and methodology. The article advocates the creation of a space for inter‐epistemological acknowledgement in which the academy develops an ethos of self‐reflection, while simultaneously respecting and integrating parallel knowledge frameworks, such as IK.     

The state of climate change adaptation in Canada's protected areas sector

L’adaptation aux changements climatiques dans les réseaux d’aires protégées du Canada : état des lieux La Commission mondiale des aires protégées a récemment laissé entendre que les actions en faveur de la conservation sont vouées à l’échec, à moins que ces dernières tiennent compte des changements climatiques. Pour ce faire, les organismes chargés des aires protégées doivent dès maintenant s’assurer de l’intégration des changements climatiques dans les politiques, les cadres de planification et les modes de gestion. Le présent article rend compte des résultats d’une enquête réalisée conjointement par l’Université de Waterloo et le Conseil canadien des aires écologiques. Celle‐ci vise à dresser un état des lieux sur l’adaptation aux changements climatiques dans tout le réseau d’aires protégées du Canada qui relève du palier fédéral, provincial ou territorial. Il se dégage de l’analyse plusieurs constats importants. Tout d’abord, sur l’ensemble des organismes chargés des aires protégées que nous avons interrogés, les trois quarts ont déclaré que les changements climatiques ont déjà des effets visibles sur leur réseau d’aires protégées. Ensuite, 94 pour cent des participants à l’enquête estiment qu’au cours des vingt‐cinq prochaines années, l’enjeu des changements climatiques sera au c?ur de la politique et de la planification des aires protégées. Finalement, malgré la perception voulant que les changements climatiques exercent une pression croissante, la portée des mesures politiques, de planification, de gestion ou de recherche mises de l’avant par la plupart des organismes jusqu’à maintenant demeure limitée. Si 91 pour cent des organismes indiquent ne pas disposer des capacités nécessaires en ce moment pour réagir de façon optimale aux changements climatiques, l’enquête a permis de mettre en évidence un écart significatif entre la perception de la gravité des changements climatiques et la capacité des organismes chargés des aires protégées de s’adapter. La faiblesse du financement, une capacité d’action limitée, et un manque de compréhension des changements climatiques et de leurs répercussions réelles ou potentielles comptent parmi les difficultés auxquelles sont confrontés les organismes canadiens chargés des aires protégées. Il est impératif de les surmonter afin que ces organismes puissent exercer leurs mandats et être en mesure d’assumer leurs responsabilités concernant la protection et la biodiversité des aires, par exemple, la protection de l’intégrité du patrimoine naturel au Canada dans un contexte de changements climatiques accélérés.     

Spatial‐temporal patterns of snow cover in western Canada

Snow cover is often measured as snow‐water equivalent (SWE), which refers to the amount of water stored in a snow pack that would be available upon melting. Snow cover and SWE represent a source of local snow‐melt release, and are sensitive to regional and global atmospheric circulation, and changes in climate. Monitoring SWE using satellite‐based passive microwave radiometry has provided nearly three decades of continuous data for North America. The availability of spatially and temporally extensive SWE data enables a better understanding of the nature of space‐time trends in snow cover, changes in these trends and linking these trends to underlying landscape and terrain characteristics. To address these interests, we quantify the spatial pattern of SWE by applying a local measure of spatial autocorrelation to 25 years of mean February SWE derived from passive microwave retrievals. Using a method for characterizing the temporal trends in the spatial pattern of SWE, temporal trends and variability in spatial autocorrelation are quantified. Results indicate that within the Canadian Prairies, extreme values of SWE are becoming more spatially coherent, with potential impacts on water availability, and hazards such as flooding. These results also highlight the need for Canadian ecological management units that consider winter conditions.     

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation research focusing on the Inuit subsistence sector in Canada: Directions for future research

The last decade has witnessed a proliferation of research into the human dimensions of climate change in the Arctic. Much of this work has examined impacts on subsistence hunting, fishing, and trapping among Canadian Inuit communities. This scholarship has developed a baseline understanding of vulnerability and adaptation, drawing upon interviews with community members and stakeholders to identify and characterize climatic risks and adaptive strategies. To further advance this baseline understanding, new methodologies are needed to complement existing research if we are to capture the dynamic nature of how climate change is experienced and responded to, and fully engage communities as equal partners. Longitudinal studies, community‐based monitoring, and targeted adaptation research offer significant promise to advance understanding. These methodologies provide a strong basis for developing meaningful partnerships with communities, the co‐production of knowledge, and empowerment for adaptation: essential components of community‐based participatory research.     

Detrended fluctuation analysis of daily atmospheric surface temperature records in Atlantic Canada

The presence and properties of long‐range correlations in temperature data reflect interactions among climate components; therefore, the quantitative characterization of scaling aspects of temperature patterns is important to climate research and can serve as an effective constituent of tests for climate models. The article presents the results of a study using multiscale characterization of daily atmospheric surface temperature patterns in Atlantic Canada. Important influences in this region are exerted from the west (the Pacific Ocean), the south (the Gulf of Mexico) and the north (the Arctic), while a significant easterly impact is due to the Atlantic Ocean; the corresponding processes involve a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The objective of the present study of long‐term temperature recordings was to evaluate the scaling properties produced in this geographical context. The data consist of homogenized daily atmospheric temperature time series recorded in stations from Atlantic Canada over a time interval of more than 100 years. Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) was applied both to maximum and minimum temperature records. The atmospheric temperature pattern produced by the interplay of factors of different strengths and dominating various time‐space scales was found to be characterized by consistent scaling properties, expressed over time intervals ranging from months to decades. Higher values of DFA scaling exponents were obtained for minimum temperature compared to maximum temperature records. Site‐specific properties include stronger pattern persistence—higher DFA exponents—for oceanic than for coastal locations; persistence tends to decrease with increasing distance from the coast for distances up to 10 kilometres. Scaling exponents tend to increase with decreasing difference between average minimum and maximum temperature, which may be relevant for the assessment of future changes in pattern variability if climate change involves modified contrasts between minimum and maximum temperature values.     

Ambitious deep energy retrofits of buildings to accelerate the 1.5°C energy transition in Canada

Scientists advise limiting global warming to 1.5°C with substantial actions by 2030. Our viewpoint argues that climate response strategies in Canada have underemphasized and underestimated the potential contribution deep energy retrofits can make to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions, leading to inadequate responses in the building sector, and that Canada can (and should) be ambitious with building retrofits over the next decade. GHG savings from building retrofits can be realized more quickly than GHG reductions from other sectors, and either deliver net cost savings or are cost‐effective when compared to other mitigation measures. Retrofits can also provide social and economic benefits, such as improved health and comfort, and lower energy costs. This paper reviews energy use and building retrofits in Canada and argues the following should be implemented: (1) focus innovation on deep energy retrofit processes, not singular retrofit actions; (2) maximize both social and environmental benefits; (3) improve data gathering and availability for analysis and delivery; (4) innovate for a process of decisions and to avoid “dropouts” during the retrofit process; and (5) focus innovation on business models that maximize benefits.     

NDVI variation and its relation to climate in Canadian ecozones

Parks Canada began the Northern Satellite Monitoring Program in 1997, with the objective of tracking large‐scale vegetation variation in Canadian ecosystems and helping land managers to develop appropriate management practices in response to climate change. Under this program, a sequence of 10‐day composite Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)‐derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1985 to 2007 was examined to study seasonal and inter‐annual relationships between vegetation and climate data over Canadian ecosystems using statistical and wavelet analysis. Statistical analysis showed that temperature was the principal driver for seasonal variability in greenness, explaining more than 70 percent of seasonal variation in vegetation for most Canadian ecozones. In comparison with temperature, the relationships between NDVI and precipitation were weaker but still significant. Maximum annual NDVI showed increasing trends in Canadian ecozones during the study period, although increasing rates were spatially heterogeneous. Wavelet analysis confirmed that inter‐annual variation in NDVI was different at two ecozones in Canada. NDVI variation in the Northern Arctic was significant at scales of 3–4 years from 1997 to 2001, which was associated with temperature and precipitation variation. Comparatively, NDVI variation in the Boreal Shield was significant at scales of 5–8 years from 1991 to 1999, but did not correspond with climate variation.     

Scenarios of climate change and natural resource development: Complexity and uncertainty in the Nechako Watershed

Climate change and resource development interact to have significant impacts on both natural and human systems within watersheds. It is, however, difficult to conceptualize and communicate these intersections, as climate change and resource development are each independently uncertain and complex. We facilitated a process whereby stakeholders created plausible future scenarios for the Nechako Watershed in British Columbia, Canada. This region is reliant upon, and has been significantly affected by, many types of resource exploitation. During a full-day workshop, 32 stakeholders created scenarios for 2050 envisioning high and low levels of both resource development and climate change. The high and low levels of climate change were based on downscaled projections from global emissions scenarios, and the resource development levels were determined at the beginning of the workshop by the participants. The exercise was educational, and motivated stakeholders to conceptualize plausible future changes and their impacts, and the outcomes should motivate stakeholders to work towards realizing a more desired future. All scenarios (even low-low) were deemed to have significant negative impacts, suggesting that the Nechako Watershed is in a vulnerable state. The complexity of the exercise suggests that more capacity building may be necessary.     

Extreme weather events in northeastern New Brunswick (Canada) for the period 1950–2012: Comparison of newspaper archive and weather station data

In the context of global warming, changes in extreme weather and climate events are expected, particularly those associated with changes in temperature and precipitation regimes and those that will affect coastal areas. The main objectives of this study were to establish the number of extreme events that have occurred in northeastern New Brunswick, Canada in recent history, and to determine whether their occurrence has increased. By using archived regional newspapers and data from three meteorological stations in a national network, the frequency of extreme events in the study area was established for the time period 1950–2012. Of the 282 extreme weather events recorded in the newspaper archives, 70% were also identified in the meteorological time series analysis. The discrepancy might be explained by the synergistic effect of co‐occurring non‐extreme events, and increased vulnerability over time, resulting from more people and infrastructure being located in coastal hazard zones. The Mann Kendall and Pettitt statistical tests were used to identify trends and the presence of break points in the weather data time series. Results indicate a statistically significant increase in average temperatures and in the number of extreme events, such as extreme hot days, as well as an increase in total annual and extreme precipitation. A significant decrease in the number of frost‐free days and extreme cold days was also found, in addition to a decline in the number of dry days.