PROBLEMS OF THE RADIOCARBON CALENDAR AND ITS CALIBRATION

Both the growing body of literature on the tree-ring calibration of radiocarbon dates, and the variety of statistical approaches used, make it appropriate to review the basic principles involved in the construction of a calibration curve. While its ultimate validity is in part a geophysical problem, the appropriate form for the calibration function, given a specific body of data, is a statistical question centering upon the analysis of the measurement errors involved. The relationship between the calibration function and the inverse calibration function is examined, and the shortcomings of the available published calibration curves considered in the light of this examination. It is concluded that there is no reason to doubt the general principles on which the calibration is based, but a need exists for a more critical handling of the measurement data with a statistical treatment of the errors involved. The quality of the data could itself be improved by the use of replicate samples for inter-laboratory projects specifically designed to investigate the magnitude of measurement error.     

The Voting Behavior of Kuwaiti Citizens in the 2006 Parliamentary Elections: an Analytical Field Study

This study was designed to investigate the voting behavior of the Kuwaiti citizens during the Parliamentary elections that took place in 2006. In a more specific way, the study tried to answer some questions related to the theoretical framework of voting behavior. These questions were concerned with who voted, and for whom? And why did they select that candidate? The study proceeded to scrutinize the factors that influenced the voter to choose candidates from certain tendencies. A questionnaire was designed as a tool to collect the data necessary to answer the study questions. The questionnaire included many sections, each of which was tailored to investigate a group of related variables. For the purpose of this study, different statistical analysis techniques were manipulated to process the data. The analysis of the study data was instrumental in drawing some conclusions that can help understand the voting behavior of the Kuwaiti citizens in that election.     

A hierarchical taxonomic procedure for provenance determination: A case study of Chalcolithic ceramics from the central Zagros

This study develops a data analysis methodology for the exploration of the variance in chemical composition of ceramic artifacts due to their typological, location and temporal characteristics. This methodology then allows for the characterization of ceramics based on these characteristics and the sequential assignment of unclassified ceramics to a region, subregion or site, with further assignment to specific ware and chronological period. The procedure uses INNA data on the elemental composition of ceramics in order to derive a series of classification functions for each category within each level of the taxonomic hierarchy. The developed procedure is used to investigate a provenance problem involving Chalcolithic ceramics from the Zagros region of western Iran. The results show that the elemental composition of ceramics, when coupled with multivariate statistical techniques, represents a powerful means for distinguishing ceramic provenance.     

Between‐group Differences in the Patterning of Musculo‐skeletal Stress Markers: Avoiding Confounding Factors by Focusing on Qualitative Aspects of Physical Activity

This paper presents a method for studying between‐group differences in physical activity patterns through the analysis of musculo‐skeletal stress markers (MSM). The specific aim was to develop a method that could overcome the problems related to confounding variables such as body size by shifting the analytical focus from the comparison of differences in intensity to the comparison of differences in kinds of activity. Instead of testing whether there are differences in the measures of central tendency of MSM scores between two groups, we proposed looking for differences in MSM covariation patterns. Formally, this is achieved through the statistical comparison of group‐specific MSM intercorrelation matrices. The null hypothesis is that the matrices are equal, and the statistical significance of the test statistic is obtained with a permutation test. In this way, the problem of confounding variables such as body size is mostly avoided because the procedure is based on the comparison of group‐specific sets of correlation coefficients which are scale‐free. The method was employed in a case study to investigate the differences in activity patterns between men and women from the Early Bronze Age population buried at the necropolis in Mokrin, Serbia. The null hypothesis of no difference between the male and female MSM correlation matrices was rejected (p = 0.0135). After the statistical significance of the difference was established, further investigation of male and female activity patterns was undertaken by means of principal component analysis (PCA) with varimax rotation. PCA results suggest that covariation between MSMs is stronger in the male sample. Success in demonstrating differences in activity patterns between sexes implies that the proposed method can be used to test for differences in physical activity between groups of individuals defined by criteria other than sex. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SIMULATION OF THE FOURIER PHASE SPECTRUM FOR THE GENERATION OF SYNTHETIC ACCELEROGRAMS

This study presents the application of a new method for generating synthetic accelerograms based on statistical distributions for Fourier phase differences and Fourier amplitudes as functions of earthquake magnitude, hypocentral distance and site geology. Two important characteristics of the methodology are that it requires a small number of input parameters and that ground motion time histories can be simulated without any specific modulation function. Two areas with different tectonic patterns (North-Eastern and Central Italy) were selected for the application. The results of our analysis are reliable in the case of Central Italy because the data set is large and quite uniformly distributed, while for North-Eastern Italy our results should not be used for distances greater than 30 km.     

Investigating the production provenance of iron artifacts with multivariate methods

The quest for suitable data, data treatments and statistical methods for identifying the provenance of iron artifacts has led to a variety of analytical strategies. Researchers working on the problem have been slow to develop or adopt the use of multivariate statistical techniques, despite their successful implementation in other archaeomaterials sourcing frameworks. This paper explores the analytical potential of a comprehensive multivariate statistical strategy for identifying the primary production origins of bloomery iron artifacts using bulk chemical analyses of bloomery smelting slag and slag inclusions in iron artifacts. This strategy includes a multivariate model for identifying distinct slag inclusion types introduced during smelting and refining. Principal component analysis and linear discriminant analysis are then applied to smelting slag training sets to create multivariate provenance fields, the chemical distributions of which are defined by kernel density estimation. Single and multi-group evaluation methods are examined. Appropriate data transformations are discussed to facilitate the projection of the chemistry of “unknown” slag inclusions into the multidimensional space generated by the smelting slag groups of known provenance. The efficacy of this strategy is demonstrated through its application to a previously examined data set derived from three iron production experiments and a published archaeological example. Results indicate that an appropriately designed multivariate strategy can be an effective tool for evaluating provenance hypotheses for bloomery iron artifacts.     

Chronological discrimination of silver coins based on inter‐elemental ratios using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS)

This paper details the application of a statistical method for the chronological discrimination of silver coins using counts per second trace elemental, inter‐elemental ratios. The statistical method described is based on a method that has been applied to similar archaeological materials to determine their provenance. The method makes use of the inter‐element association patterns of multi‐element analytical data determined using laser ablation‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS). The majority of the 266 coins analysed for this study have already been successfully identified by their mint markings. The data from LA‐ICP‐MS analyses, together with what is known about the coins through visual identification, were used to discriminate the reigning sovereign, and in the case of Mexico, the year of minting, of individual coins within the elemental fingerprint of different mints. Subsequently, unidentified coins can be placed in the confusion matrix, and their trace element information used to identify their year of minting when compared with other, identified coins from the same mint. The interpretational statistical technique linear discriminant analysis (LDA) was used to explore an identification of year of minting of coins that have previously not been identified by other means based on a statistical comparison against a database of compositional analysis of silver coins of known year of minting.     

少数民族传统聚落景观基因的居民感知与认同特征——以通道芋头侗寨为例

本文以通道县芋头侗寨为研究区域,在识别鼓楼、风雨桥、寨门、萨坛、布局形态、图腾标志、环境因子等9个景观基因的基础上,从环境要素感知和文化心理认同的角度进行问卷及访谈调查。结果发现:1萨坛感知度最高,图腾感知度最低;2萨坛、鼓楼认同度较高,整体形态、图腾和参考环境认同度较低;3位置感知度最高,体积感知度最差;4情感认同度较高,功能认同度最低;5男性感知和认同明显高于女性;6文化程度对感知影响较大,对认同影响不明显;7居住时长对感知和认同有正向影响;8离村寨距离对感知与认同度由正向影响。     

Region‐specific determinants of the foreign direct investment in China

This study revisits region‐specific determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Eastern, Central, and Western China using econometric and spatial analyses. It uses a data set covering 31 Chinese provinces and autonomous regions spanning the period 2005–15, together with panel data regression. Our statistical results show that in Eastern China, FDI is significantly associated with bilateral trade, orientation towards the service industry, industrialisation level, and availability of strategic assets in the region. In Central China, FDI is mainly pulled by availability of the domestic market and strategic assets in the region. In Western China, FDI inflows are mainly determined by natural resource endowment, industrialisation level, and regional innovation and production effectiveness in information and communication technology industries. Our analysis also reveals the impact of FDI in China's regional development and its capacity to hollow out the three Chinese macro‐regions. Our findings for China lead us to suggest that those governments seeking to attract FDI should not solely rely on it to facilitate local economic development and should make use of local circumstances in combination with FDI to boost their economies.     

Looking for circular structures in post hole distributions: Quantitative analysis of two settlements from bronze age England

A statistical procedure is suggested for the analyses of hypothetical round-house plans among post hole patterns. The data are compared with an analogous random scattering of points and differences are noted. Plausible interpretations are contrasted with chance configurations to determine their strength. Single-link cluster analysis and statistical geometry are used. The emphasis throughout the paper is on data analysis rather than hypothesis testing.     

Preventive Intervention for a Group of Buildings in the Historic Centre of Manresa (Barcelona)

The preservation of old downtowns has become a necessity of growing interest. New urban policies have been approved in different countries in order to revive the old city centers and make them economically sustainable. In this global trend, the municipality of Manresa (Barcelona) developed an important urban planning operation in the old district that included the demolition of a group of existing buildings and the construction of a new modern one in close proximity to a group of old residential buildings which are cultural heritage of the city. As a consequence, specific areas of risk were generated which lead to the adoption of precautionary measures to ensure safety. This article presents the preliminary analysis, diagnostics and monitoring carried out on this group of heterogeneous old buildings, as well as the results and precautionary measures taken to ensure their safety. The article also provides a translatable methodology that combines qualitative and quantitative aspects.     

Lost in the Mail: the Inherent Errors of Mapping Australia Post Postcodes to ABS Derived Postal Areas

It is now common practice, by users of geographic information, to link data held at the postcode level to that obtained from the national census. This paper examines the relationship between Australia Post (AP) postcodes and Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) derived postal areas — which are an approximation of the former based on aggregated census collection districts (CDs). A group of adjacent ABS postal areas in northwest Melbourne was compared with the true AP postcode areas they purported to represent and the discrepancies were investigated. Firstly, shape mismatches were studied and their potential impacts upon resource allocation decisions were assessed. Next, comparisons of areas were undertaken. It was found that, in established inner city urban areas, the two sets of boundaries were highly correlated. However, outer suburban neighborhoods were identified as being particularly prone to major areal discrepancies. The implications of mismatches between these two key boundary data sources may be severe, given that management decisions and the allocation of public and private resources are often based on spatial statistical analyses which use these data sets. The authors acknowledge ABS efforts in providing information at the levels of aggregation that society demands. The introduction of ABS postal areas data has undoubtedly facilitated the use of demographic data in many sectors; it has, however, also caused some problems, for instance, when users assume that ABS postal areas are identical to AP postcodes. These issues could easily be avoided with the inclusion of more comprehensive metadata documentation accompanying ABS data. Research is continuing to develop a method by which agencies may derive common boundaries for their administrative units, yet still meet their own individual data and sampling requirements.     

Statistics as the science of government: The stillborn British Empire statistical bureau, 1918–20

The 1920 British Empire Statistical Conference was the direct outcome of the Dominions Royal Commission's Final Report, which had spelt out the need to increase the uniformity and comparability of statistics originating from various parts of the Empire and had proposed setting up an imperial central statistical office. Over 24 days, delegates debated a large number of topics, ranging from the practical and empirical subject matters of statistical inquiry to more abstract issues such as the nature and object of statistical data collection and analysis, and to the problems raised by the establishment of a statistical bureau that would operate on an unprecedented scale. This article seeks to understand why, despite apparently favourable conditions, this project soon ended in complete failure. The reasons must be sought in the neatly distinctive outlooks held by the British government and Dominion representatives as regards the function of statistics for the purpose of government, in the quite different bureaucratic settings that embodied and sustained these views, as well as in the tensions and centrifugal pressures that acted upon inter-imperial relations following the Great War.     

Statistical errors in the determination of wind velocities by the spaced antenna technique

This paper is concerned with the statistical errors which are present when wind velocities in the atmosphere are determined by the radar method known as the spaced antenna technique. It is assumed that the (complex) data is processed by the method known as full correlation analysis (FCA). A theory is first developed to give the error in the determination of the position of the maximum of a cross-correlation function and the value of lag such that the auto-correlation falls to a value equal to that of the crosscorrelation at zero lag. These are the basic quantities needed for the application of FCA. These error estimates are tested with a variety of numerically simulated data and shown to be realistic. The results are applied to real data and, using the standard techniques for the propagation of errors, they lead to estimates of the errors in the derived wind velocities. In order to test these estimates, an experiment was carried out in which two independent wind determinations were made simultaneously. The differences were used to obtain experimental estimates of the errors. It was found that the theory overestimates the error in the wind velocities by about 50%. Possible reasons for this are discussed.     

A REVIEW OF SUPERVISED AND UNSUPERVISED PATTERN RECOGNITION IN ARCHAEOMETRY*

Principal component, cluster and discriminant analysis are multivariate statistical methods that are widely used in archaeometry. They are examples of what are known in some literatures as unsupervised and supervised learning methods. Over the past 20 years or so, a wide variety of other learning methods have been developed that take advantage of modern computing power and, in some cases, have been designed to handle data sets more complex than those often used in archaeometric data analysis. To date, these methods have had little impact on archaeometry. This paper reviews, in a largely non‐technical manner, the ideas behind these newer methods; illustrates their use on a variety of data sets; and attempts to assess their potential for future archaeometric use.     

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF HOUSING TRAIT PRICES IN A THIRD WORLD CITY*

ABSTRACT. A first step in the process of economic analysis of housing markets in Third World cities is the econometric analysis of housing trait prices. The information on market price of housing is basic to the derivation/estimation of other market parameters such as housing demand and supply elasticities. In addition, housing trait prices constitute invaluable inputs into the analysis of effects of government housing programs. This paper presents estimates of housing trait prices in a Third World city housing market, the city of Jos in Nigeria. Nonlinear stochastic specification of a policy constrained hedonic price function is presented as an unbiased estimator of housing trait prices. The Box-Cox statistical procedure was employed in the paper to obtain hedonic regression coefficients which are the parameters needed to compute the average prices evaluated both at the mean of each trait and at their margins. The potential uses of housing trait prices for policy analysis are discussed briefly.     

The Multi Nearest Neighbor Distance Method for Analyzing the Compound Effect of Infrastructural Elements on the Distribution of Activity Points

We propose a statistical method to analyze the compound effect of infrastructural elements (such as stations, arterial streets, and lakes) on the distribution of activity points (such as retail stores) over a region. First, we formulate a function that explicitly shows the compound effect of infrastructural elements. Second, we show an efficient computational method for estimating this compound function from data. Third, we develop multivariate statistical methods for testing several hypotheses about these compound effects. Last, we examine the compound effect of arterial streets and subway stations on the distribution of “high-class” apartment buildings in Sumida-Kohto, Tokyo.     

A Complete Chemical Grouping of the Berkeley Neutron Activation Analysis Data on Mycenaean Pottery

The Perlman–Asaro data bank contains nearly 900 data sets of Mycenaean and Minoan sherds which were sampled in different regions of Greece and Crete. The data were obtained from Neutron Activation Analysis measurements at Berkeley in the 1970s, and for each concentration value a corresponding uncertainty of measurement was also recorded. Parts of the contents of the data bank have been published before. Here, we present the first complete statistical analysis of the whole data bank, considering measurement errors as well as constant shifts of the data due to pottery making practices (“dilutions”). We establish new reference patterns for different regions of Greece and Crete and compare the results with the contents of our own group data bank in Bonn. For those parts of the data which have been published previously, a comparison between these studies and our recent investigation is presented.     

Trade Liberalization and the Fiscal Squeeze: Implications for Public Investment

This article examines the impact of trade liberalization on the level and structure of government expenditures across countries, with particular emphasis on low income countries. It develops the argument that the policies employed during trade liberalization have resulted in a fiscal squeeze as a result of declining tax revenues and rising interest expenditures. To surmount this fiscal hurdle, expenditures on physical capital, which have negligible political ramifications, have been reduced. Other more politically sensitive expenditures, such as spending on social capital, have been financed by incurring additional debt. However, additional debt has exerted upward pressure on interest payments, further exacerbating the fiscal situation. The statistical analysis carried out to examine the evidence uses panel data for eighty developing and industrialized countries over the period 1970–98 and employs a fixed–effects regression framework to account for country–specific characteristics. The results indicate that trade liberalization has indeed resulted in declining revenues and higher interest expenditures and that these factors have contributed to the observed decline in infrastructure spending.