Some Remarks About the Future of Geographical Analysis: The Journal and the Sub‐Discipline

This paper expands upon a GA 50^th Anniversary panel presentation made at the 2018 New Orleans American Association of Geographers meeting. It notes that retrospectives for this topic already exist, both in terms of the journal and the sub‐discipline. This paper presents discussion about the following selected prominent transitional themes bridging the past and the future of geographical analysis: space–time data; geographic uncertainty and error; and, dimensional reduction spatial statistical modeling. It also presents discussion about the following three themes that are expected to receive considerable future attention: negative spatial autocorrelation; synergies between spatial statistics and spatial optimization; and, big spatial data. The first two of these topics essentially have been ignored in the literature to date.     

A Geospatial Analysis of China's Exports, 1991-2008

Three Taiwan-based economists employ a range of exploratory spatial data analysis tools (e.g., Moran's I and LISA statistics) to investigate trends in the growth of China's exports over the period 1991-2008. A particular focus is on the detection of spatial correlations between China and 40 export destination countries in major world regions. Emphasis in the paper on the key years of 1991, 2001, 2006, and 2008 has enabled the authors to analyze the impacts on China's trade of such major events as the country's accession to the World Trade Organization and the global economic crisis of 2008-2009. The results of the spatial analysis reveal the continuing importance of the U.S. and Asian countries in China's export trade (despite changes in the character of trade relations) and identify the spatial outliers (e.g., in Latin America) that may serve as the basis for new export markets for China in the future.     

人文地理过程内涵辨析与模拟探讨

人文地理过程是陆地表层系统地理过程最重要的组成部分之一。本文从陆地表层系统科学的角度出发,探讨了人文地理过程的基本内涵及主要组成部分,指出人口迁移过程和经济集聚-扩散过程是人文地理过程最重要的要素过程,城市化和土地利用变化是人文地理过程最直接的空间表达形式;在此基础上进一步探讨了人文地理过程模拟的核心内容,包括要素模拟和综合过程模拟;提出了人文过程模拟的主要数据源获得途径与模拟方法,指出了人文地理过程模拟需要解决的几个关键问题。     

Local Indicators of Spatial Association—LISA

The capabilities for visualization, rapid data retrieval, and manipulation in geographic information systems (GIS) have created the need for new techniques of exploratory data analysis that focus on the “spatial” aspects of the data. The identification of local patterns of spatial association is an important concern in this respect. In this paper, I outline a new general class of local indicators of spatial association (LISA) and show how they allow for the decomposition of global indicators, such as Moran's I, into the contribution of each observation. The LISA statistics serve two purposes. On one hand, they may be interpreted as indicators of local pockets of nonstationarity, or hot spots, similar to the G_i and G*_i statistics of Getis and Ord (1992). On the other hand, they may be used to assess the influence of individual locations on the magnitude of the global statistic and to identify “outliers,” as in Anselin's Moran scatterplot (1993a). An initial evaluation of the properties of a LISA statistic is carried out for the local Moran, which is applied in a study of the spatial pattern of conflict for African countries and in a number of Monte Carlo simulations.     

DIAGNOSTICS FOR REGRESSION MODELING IN SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS*

ABSTRACT. This paper describes statistics for model criticism in spatial econometrics. The purpose of these statistics is to evaluate how well a chosen model fits the data and to identify influential cases and how they affect the aggregate picture. The paper reviews results in Martin (1992) for the regression model with correlated errors where the coefficients of the variance matrix are assumed either known or fixed. The problems of applying the statistics in spatial econometric modeling are discussed. An application is reported which considers diagnostics for the mean function and highlights cases that might influence estimates of the parameter of the error model. Different ways of assessing the influence of cases are also described.     

QUANTITATIVE GEOGRAPHY*

ABSTRACT This paper provides an overview of quantitative geography. In addition to discussing what quantitative geography is, the paper details the methods that have come to define it. Six broad categories are used to discuss the range of methods found in quantitative geography: geographic information systems; airborne sensing (global positioning system, photogrammetry, and remote sensing); statistics and exploratory spatial data analysis; mathematics and optimization; regional analysis; and computer science and simulation. Particular emphasis is given to the state of the art in each area and the contributions of geographers, with associated discussion on major unresolved issues and future research directions.     

Equation and Adequation: The World Traced by the Phillips Curve

This paper considers the power of abstract formalization in capitalism, via an account of the politics and geography of an equation. The equation in question lies behind the Phillips curve, which describes the relation between price inflation and unemployment or output. I examine the evolution of the equation and its relation to macroeconomics' renewed emphasis, since the late 1960s, on long‐run monetary neutrality. Considering the Phillips curve and its theoretical and technical armature as social practice, I discuss some of the political and distributional questions that arise from the mode of spatial and temporal abstraction particular to modern macroeconomic analysis and policy‐making. The paper has three parts: a brief history of the Phillips curve, an examination of its modern equation‐form, and an analysis of its part in the dialectical process of “real abstraction”, through which logical space and time prioritize and produce both the spatial “macro” and the temporal “long‐run”.     

New Developments in the Use of Spatial Technology in Archaeology

Spatial technology is integral to how archaeologists collect, store, analyze, and represent information in digital data sets. Recent advances have improved our ability to look for and identify archaeological remains and have increased the size and complexity of our data sets. In this review we outline trends in visualization, data management, archaeological prospecting, modeling, and spatial analysis, as well as key advances in hardware and software. Due to developments in education, information technology, and landscape archaeology, the implementation of spatial technology has begun to move beyond superficial applications and is no longer limited to environmental deterministic approaches. In the future, spatial technology will increasingly change archaeology in ways that will enable us to become better practitioners, scholars, and stewards.     

Historiographical layers in the relationship between science and technology

Abstract

This paper aims to examine historiographical layers in the historical narrative on the relationship between science and technology, a topic which has been exhaustively discussed without consensus by both historians of science and technology. I will first examine two extreme positions concerning this issue, and analyze the underlying historiographical standpoints behind them. I will then show that drawing implications for the relationship between science and technology from a few case studies is frequently misleading. After showing this, I .will move to the “macrohistory” of the relationship between science and technology, which reveals a long process in which the barriers between them gradually became porous. Here, I will examine the historical formation of three different kinds of “boundary objects” between science and technology, which facilitated their interactions by making their borders more permeable: instruments as a material boundary object; new institutions, laboratories, and departments as a spatial boundary or boundary space; and new mediators as a human hybrid.     

An Application of Canonical Correlation Analysis in Regional Science: TheInterrelationships Between Transport and Development in China's Zhujiang Delta

Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) has the ability to deal with two sets of multivariate variables simultaneously and to produce both structural and spatial meanings. In view of the valuable insights to be gained, in this paper I examine the potential applications of CCA in regional science by describing its algorithm in a regional or spatial context. Next, I apply CCA to explore the mutually interdependent relationship between transport and development inChina's Zhujiang Delta. The results highlight the utility of CCA in revealing the structural and spatial patterns of two dominant and four subdominant transport-development relationships in this growing region of China.     

British speleologies: geographies of science, personality and practice, 1935–1953

This paper examines historical geographies of speleology in Britain between 1935 and 1953. As the study of caves, speleology was constructed as a sporting-science. The paper traces the formation and activities of the British Speleological Association, the influence of the speleologist Eli Simpson, arguments relating to the practice of speleology, and the formation of the Cave Research Group in 1947, to examine the geographies of science that emerge through speleology. By tracing some of the spatial, social and practical issues within the histories of speleology, distinct social and regional geographies are uncovered. Debates about practising science, definitions of speleology as sporting-science and ‘the right kind of speleologist’ complicate the geographical histories of speleology within Britain. As well as emphasising the spatial outcomes of these issues, I suggest that personality can also impact upon geographies of science in profound ways.     

Mapping the Geography of R&D: What Can We Learn for Regional Innovation Policy in the Czech Republic and Beyond?

Administrative regions do not necessarily correspond to areas that are homogenous in terms of innovation intensity. Although this has been recognized in the literature, quantitative evidence that explicitly considers this problem is rare. Using spatial exploratory analysis on detailed regional data derived from a census of R&D performers in the Czech Republic, we identify local spatial clusters of R&D activities and assess the extent of their (mis)match with administrative borders. Overall, the results support the arguments for regionalization of innovation policy. However, the existing policy units do not appear well suited for this purpose. On one hand, there is a need for policy coordination between multiple administrative regions. On the other hand, however, there are diverse patterns within them. Similar problems are likely to haunt the regionalization process in many other countries, which is alarming, as the regional accent of innovation policies becomes ever more vehement over time.     

Mapping narratives: the 1992 Los Angeles riots as a case study for narrative-based geovisualization

In this paper, I demonstrate that narrative-based geovisualization contributes to a broader understanding of complex social and inherently spatial phenomena, such as riots, when combined with other data. Past spatial scholarship on riots has analyzed point-distribution data representing damaged structures caused by fires and vandalism. Although this approach is insightful, the analysis of damaged structures engages with just one type of many other significant occurrences during a riot. Since riots are a result of human actions, I am interested in representing other significant occurrences through the eyewitness, on-the-ground accounts—or narratives—that reveal individual observations and experiences. Using the 1992 Los Angeles riots as a case study, I combine point-distribution data and narrative data as a complementary, multiple-methods approach to investigate human actions during riots.     

Towards an Integrated Spatial Planning?

The notion of “spatial planning” has emerged as something of a new planning orthodoxy. Underpinning it lie various notions of integration—of policy communities and agendas, for example. This paper considers the evolution of integrated spatial planning in the various UK territories, focusing particularly on the experiences of Scotland. It analyses horizontal and vertical forms of integration using the notion of “governance lines”. These help explore the interaction between policies and actions at various spatial levels to examine how governance action can be re-scaled. A focus on Scotland highlights both divergence from European experience and a number of long-standing, but often subtly different, concerns for planners. Notable among these are the power spatial planning has in other policy sectors to pursue integration, and the co-ordination of land-use issues and infrastructure delivery. These issues present challenges for agendas of integration and highlights their political nature, raising as they do questions such as: how far can integration be pursued in the contemporary governance landscape; and thus to whom and on what might focuses on integration be directed? Such an analysis suggests potentials and limitations for a spatial planning agenda in the future.     

Comparative localization of academic and industrial spillovers

This paper studies geographic localization of academic and industrialknowledge spillovers. Using data on US research and developmentlaboratories that quantify spatial aspects of learning aboutuniversities and firms as well as the locations of closely affiliateduniversities and firms, I find that academic spillovers aremore localized than industrial spillovers. I also find thatlocalization is increased by nearby stocks of R&D, but reducedby laboratory and firm size. These results on localized academicspillovers reflect the dissemination of normal science and theindustry–university cooperative movement, which encouragefirms to work with nearby universities, so that geographic localizationcoincides with the public goods nature of academic research.This situation contrasts with relations to other firms, wherecontractual arrangements are often needed to access proprietaryinformation, often at a considerable distance.     

The “Science” of Policy Development During Administrative Rulemaking

The legitimacy of government agencies rests in part on the premise that public administrators use scientific evidence to make policy decisions. Yet, what happens when there is no consensus in the scientific evidence—i.e., when the science is in conflict? I theorize that scientific conflict yields greater policy change during administrative policymaking. I assess this claim using data from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). I identify policy change—what I refer to as “policy development” in this article—between the FDA's draft and final rules with a novel text analysis measure of shifts in regulatory restrictions. I then go on to find that more policy development does occur with scientific conflict. Moreover, using corresponding survey data, I uncover suggestive evidence that one beneficiary of such conflict may be participating interest groups. Groups lobby harder—and attempt to change more of the rule—during conflict, while an in‐survey experiment provides evidence of increased interest group influence on rule content when scientific conflict is high.     

Beyond Moran's I: Testing for Spatial Dependence Based on the Spatial Autoregressive Model

The statistic known as Moran's I is widely used to test for the presence of spatial dependence in observations taken on a lattice. Under the null hypothesis that the data are independent and identically distributed normal random variates, the distribution of Moran's I is known, and hypothesis tests based on this statistic have been shown in the literature to have various optimality properties. Given its simplicity, Moran's I is also frequently used outside of the formal hypothesis-testing setting in exploratory analyses of spatially referenced data; however, its limitations are not very well understood. To illustrate these limitations, we show that, for data generated according to the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model, Moran's I is only a good estimator of the SAR model's spatial-dependence parameter when the parameter is close to 0. In this research, we develop an alternative closed-form measure of spatial autocorrelation, which we call APLE , because it is an approximate profile-likelihood estimator (APLE) of the SAR model's spatial-dependence parameter. We show that APLE can be used as a test statistic for, and an estimator of, the strength of spatial autocorrelation. We include both theoretical and simulation-based motivations (including comparison with the maximum-likelihood estimator), for using APLE as an estimator. In conjunction, we propose the APLE scatterplot, an exploratory graphical tool that is analogous to the Moran scatterplot, and we demonstrate that the APLE scatterplot is a better visual tool for assessing the strength of spatial autocorrelation in the data than the Moran scatterplot. In addition, Monte Carlo tests based on both APLE and Moran's I are introduced and compared. Finally, we include an analysis of the well-known Mercer and Hall wheat-yield data to illustrate the difference between APLE and Moran's I when they are used in exploratory spatial data analysis.     

A Bayesian Approach to Modeling Binary Data: The Case of High‐Intensity Crime Areas

This paper reports the fitting of a number of Bayesian logistic models with spatially structured or/and unstructured random effects to binary data with the purpose of explaining the distribution of high‐intensity crime areas (HIAs) in the city of Sheffield, England. Bayesian approaches to spatial modeling are attracting considerable interest at the present time. This is because of the availability of rigorously tested software for fitting a certain class of spatial models. This paper considers issues associated with the specification, estimation, and validation, including sensitivity analysis, of spatial models using the WinBUGS software. It pays particular attention to the visualization of results. We discuss a map decomposition strategy and an approach that examines properties of the full posterior distribution. The Bayesian spatial model reported provides some interesting insights into the different factors underlying the existence of the three police‐defined HIAs in Sheffield.     

Positive Returns and Equilibrium: Simultaneous Feedback Between Public Opinion and Social Policy

This paper pushes forward political research from across disciplines seeking to understand the linkages between public opinion and social policy in democracies. It considers the thermostatic and the increasing returns perspectives as pointing toward a potentially stable set of effects running between opinion and policy. Both theoretical perspectives argue that opinion and policy are reciprocally causal, feeding back on one another. This is a general argument found in opinion‐policy literatures. However, much empirical research claims to model “feedback” effects when actually using separate unidirectional models of opinion and policy. Only a small body of research addresses opinion‐policy endogeneity directly. In this paper I consider an opinion‐policy system with simultaneous feedback and without lags. I argue that there is a theoretical equilibrium in the relationship of opinion and policy underlying the otherwise cyclical processes that link them. Given that available cross‐national data are cross‐sectional and provide limited degrees of freedom, an ideal theoretical model must be somewhat constrained in order to arrive at empirically meaningful results. In this challenging and exploratory undertaking I hope to open up the possibility of a general system of effects between public opinion and social policy and how to model them in future research. I focus on social welfare policy as it is highly salient to public interests and a costly area of government budgets, making it an area of contentious policymaking. Social policy is also a major part of the thermostatic model of opinion and policy, which was recently extended to the cross‐national comparative context (Wlezien & Soroka, 2012) providing a critical predecessor to this paper because identification of equilibrium between public opinion and social policy in any given society is greatly enhanced through comparison with other societies. This counterfactual approach helps to identify opinion‐policy patterns that may not change much within societies, but can be seen as taking on discrete trajectories between societies.     

Reality versus Policy: The Delineation and Testing of Local Labour Market and Spatial Policy Areas

As part of the empirical planning science, this article integrates theory, empirical findings and policy. It first deals with the question how to reach a theoretically well-grounded and empirical applicable delineation of local labour market areas. An inductive classification method is selected based on the behaviour of individual commuters without selecting a priori central places. By this, new urban forms like polynodality are included. In using this method for the Netherlands, 31 local labour market areas (LLAs) were distinguished. Moreover, the article elaborates some simple measures to test the optimality of LLA classifications. The 31 LLAs adequately reflect the 'reality' of actual functional labour market relationships. The article also investigates the matching between reality and the LLA classification as used in spatial policy. There is a large gap between reality and policy. This urges bringing the policy classification more in line with existing LLAs. Alternatively, if one considers the present policy classification as an instrument for future spatial structure, much additional effort will be required. The findings of the article can be easily applied to other European countries.