近200年PDO对晋北地区径流量丰枯变化影响研究

本文利用1799-1999年的汾河、永定河径流量序列以及PDO序列,采用交叉小波分析法,初步分析了PDO与晋北地区径流量丰枯变化的关系,并在此基础上研究了PDO对晋北径流量的影响机制。结果表明:在多年尺度上,晋北地区径流量与PDO之间存在着明显的反相关关系,即在PDO暖相位时,径流量减少;反之,PDO冷相位时,径流量增大,而且在研究时段内这种反相关关系占主导地位。PDO通过影响副热带高压(简称副高)的强度和位置,从而对晋北地区径流量产生影响。同时,在这一过程中温度也通过蒸发量对径流量产生影响。     

明清时期江淮西部地区干湿状况研究(1450-1911)

对明清江淮西部地区的旱涝史料进行梳理,对逐年州县旱涝灾害资料等级进行量化处理,并通过计算旱涝平均等级值和10年滑动平均值,重建1450—1911年该区域的干湿变化时间序列。结果发现,该区1450—1911年间共出现6个干湿阶段: 1450—1490年,以轻度干旱为主;1491—1545年,旱涝灾害频发,干湿波动较为明显;1546—1625年,旱涝灾害少发,干湿比较平稳;1626—1710年,以中度干旱为主,极端干旱事件发生频率显著增加;1711—1860年,气候湿润;1861—1911年,干湿波动偏湿润。不同的干湿阶段对江淮西部的湖泊也造成了一定的影响,干旱时期,湖盆积水减少,湖周萎缩;湿润时期,降雨增加,湖泊的蓄水量增加。     

基于黄土高原南部地区历史文献记录的唐代气候冷暖波动特征研究

本文基于黄土高原南部地区历史文献记录 ,对唐代气候冷暖波动特征进行初步研究。研究表明 ,799AD前后存在一次百年尺度的气候转寒 ,在 84 5 AD、880 AD附近还存在两次数十年尺度的气候波动。在数十年时间尺度上 ,气候寒冷与较高的气候变率相伴出现。唐代相应地区旱涝资料中没有发现冷暖变化与干湿变化在十年尺度上有显著的线性相关性。最后我们就气候波动与社会发展之间某些耦合现象作一初步的讨论。     

中国历史气候研究述评

文献资料是研究中国历史气候变化研究的重要依据,我国相关领域学者对此历时几十年研究已取得重要成果。本文按照历史气候研究的内容,对资料的拓展、温度变化研究、干湿变化研究、极端气候事件以及气候变化对人类社会的影响等五个方面的成就加以述评。     

嘉靖七年特别极端干旱对“嘉靖革新”的作用机制研究

明朝嘉靖七年,全国范围内爆发了发生概率为2%的特别极端干旱事件。严重的旱灾在北方及南方九省肆虐,导致占缴纳全国赋税额度七成有余的地区遭受大面积的粮食减产。这一事件造成当年明廷不得不在大幅减免内地税粮的同时大规模提高财政支出,以用于内地赈济和边防供给,酿成中央政府的巨额财政赤字。此次干旱暴露了明廷盐政败坏、宗室占田、军屯荒废等方面的弊端,边防供给体系失效。明廷不得不通过改革盐政、核查六部乃至清查勋戚庄田等一系列革新措施来筹备用于赈济和供边的粮饷,以应对危局。这促成了“嘉靖革新”的开启。     

毛乌素沙地全新世孢粉组合与气候变迁

<正> 毛乌素沙地位于黄土高原和鄂尔多斯高原的过渡地带,气候由半干旱向干旱、植被由草原向荒漠草原过渡。生态环境脆弱,敏感易变。最近一万年以来的地层记录表明,植被景观和气候的干湿冷暖变化是多旋回性的。本文通过对全新世地层的解剖分析,试图     

黄土高原民众生存状态的历史考察国际学术研讨会

黄土高原是地球上面积最大的黄土区,在中国以至东亚的人类文明进程中占据着极其重要的地位。作为区域民众赖以生存、生产、生活的家园,黄土高原承载着芸芸众生数千年来的得失、悲欢、成败。基于"坚持以人民为中心的发展思想"的崭新视角,对黄土高原与人类社会发展关系的历史值得进一步探索。     

两汉时期气候状况的历史学再考察

本文从农事活动时节、物候和干湿状况三个方面对两汉时期的气候情状进行了历史学的再考察。认为 :在冷暖变动方面 ,两汉时期的气温比其前的春秋时期气温要低 ;与今天相比较无大差异 ,仅有的区别在于具体的变动幅度上 ;前、后汉相比 ,西汉略冷 ,东汉稍暖 ,但其间有多次波动 ,东汉末年 ,气候急剧转冷。在干湿状况方面 ,该期具有若干干湿相间的显著特征     

战国秦汉时期长江中游地区气候状况研究

本文根据历史文献、考古材料和钻孔孢粉资料等,对战国秦汉时期长江中游地区的气候状况进行了初步的探讨。结果表明:战国初期,该地气候温暖湿润;战国中后期至西汉武帝后期,气温下降,气候温凉,极端寒冷事件不断出现;约从公元前100年始,气温明显回升,至公元初年前后,长江中游地区复为温暖湿润的气候环境;公元之初的新莽政权时期,气候经历了由暖而寒的历史转变,降温过程大致持续到东汉明帝时期;之后至东汉中后期,气候暖湿,尤其是冬季气温相对较高;东汉后期,气候再度出现了幅度不大的波动,标志着魏晋南北朝时期大降温的开始。此间气候虽屡有起伏,但总体而言,战国秦汉时期长江中游地区的气候仍以暖湿为主,气温略高于今,或与现今差别不大。在干湿状况方面,具有干湿相间的特点。     

1766年以来永定河汛期径流量与太平洋年代际振荡

以清代永定河芦沟桥志桩尺寸记录为骨干资料,结合近现代器测水文资料,使用分段建模的方法恢复了1766-2004年永定河芦沟桥断面的汛期径流量序列,序列表明永定河径流量在逐年尺度上具有极大的不稳定性,但其洪峰规模自19世纪以来不断减小,19世纪中期与20世纪初期是最为明显的丰水时段,而1920年代后径流量便明显萎缩,枯水期一直延续至现代。进入1920年代后,流量变化在18世纪后期至19世纪存在的30年准周期消失,水量变化呈现无周期特征。与太平洋年代际振荡指标PDO的比对发现,两者在30-40年尺度上具有明显的反相关关系,天然状态下,太平洋温度升高对应于永定河流域较为干旱的时段。海温异常造成的季风强度变化会导致华北地区降雨格局出现变化,进而影响到永定河芦沟桥以上河段的汛期水量,表明处于季风区北部边缘的永定河水系对于太平洋海温变动具有更大的敏感性。     

Climate and energy security policies and measures: synergies and conflicts

Concerns about climate and energy security are leading to increased government intervention in the energy sector, in particular as they relate to the choice of energy supply options. While many of these options will improve both energy and climate security, many measures will benefit one while harming the other. This raises an important question for governments and energy planners: how can conflicts between climate and energy security be resolved? This article outlines some of the barriers and problems that may arise as governments and companies try to address climate and energy security concerns simultaneously in various energy supply areas. It concludes by arguing against choosing one objective over the other, and by outlining steps that can be taken to help resolve conflicts between the two agendas.     

我和我的兄弟姐妹

1938年．我出生在金沙江畔一个叫巴塘的小县城里。生在哪一天．至今不知道．因此．六十多年过去了．我从来也没有过过生日。     

Challenger and Chernobyl Lessons and Reflections

Abstract

It is argued that Psychological research on 'race' and 'ethnicity' issues presents a number of ethical problems. These relate to the sociopolitical impact of such research, particularly when it purports to find differences of an 'innate' character; to the use of naive subjects, particularly children, in research which is aimed at demonstrating their 'inferiority'; and, within the academic community itself, to the working relationships between researchers who believe in 'innate' 'race' differences and colleagues belonging to allegedly 'inferior' groups – this being particularly significant within a teaching environment. Although the 'race differences' question has a long and controversial history, ethical issues relating to the research process itself have received less focused attention. Moreover, replacement of the genetically obsolete concept of 'race' with the idea of 'ethnicity' does not solve the problem entirely, and the term 'ethnicity' is itself unsatisfactory in several respects.     

Power and Ethnicity History and Anthropology

This essay reflects on the relationship between anthropological and historical scholarship of ethnicity, picking up on themes explored by Andre Gingrich, by considering the epistemological and evidentiary limitations of social scientific and historical analysis and reconstruction. Beginning with the consideration of the pioneering transdisciplinary efforts of Robert Darnton and Clifford Geertz, it argues that many of the weaknesses ascribed to such efforts are actually part of the nature of social scientific investigation which, in the terms of Peter Winch, must take into account two sets of relationships: that of the relationship between the scientist and the phenomena that he or she observes and the symbolic system that he or she shares with other scientists, which can only be understood from the social context of common activity. How these two relationships challenge social scientific analysis of ethnicity are examined through a consideration of the difficulties of applying Anthony Smith's definition of an ethnie to either Fredrik Barth's classic essay on “Pathan Identity and its Maintenance” or Helmut Reimitz's study of Frankish identity. It concludes that neither anthropologists nor historians are simply describing societies as they are or as they were but rather attempt to describe societies as witnesses within them thought they should be, and we do this for our own society, not for those of the participants, past or present.     

Of Demons and Angels and Historical Humans: Some Events and Questions in Translation and Post-colonial Theory

In what follows, I attempt to show that a look at some curious examples of translations from European texts makes us think about issues in translation theory and post-colonial theory from a slightly different angle. The metaphor of translation can very well be employed for understanding the relation between European texts, and some texts and some social and political practices in India in the colonial period, and this in turn helps us look critically at what I shall call our fuzzy post-colonialism. I also argue that Walter Benjamin's metaphor of translation as the after-life of a work can be extended to posit two basic modes of after-life.     

后伊拉克时代与中国的内政外交--普遍主义与单边主义的冲突

"9·11"事件后,冷战后的国际政治格局发生了重大变化.其最大特征可以概括为以下两点:第一,确立了以唯一超级大国--美国为核心的以反恐为普遍主义的全球性安全阵线;第二,美国的爱国主义、民族主义戏剧性地高涨起来.就像当时有人强调因为全世界有60多个国家的人在世界贸易中心工作,所以对世贸中心的攻击就是对全世界的攻击那样,在美国国民中普遍存在着这样的观点:因为美国社会自身就是世界的缩影,所以星条旗也可被看作是超越一国国界的全人类的普遍象征.