Sizing Up State Policy Innovation Research

In the literature on state policy innovation, there are three major explanations for what causes a government to adopt a new policy. One is the internal determinants model, which posits that the main factors leading a state to innovate are internal political, social and economic characteristics of the stale. The other two are diffusion models—the regional diffusion model, and the national interaction model—which see slate policy adoptions as emulations of earlier adoptions by other states. Each of the three models has been associated with a distinct strategy for empirical testing. The regional diffusion model has been tested with factor analysis, the national interaction model with time-series regression, and the internal determinants model with cross-sectional regression. In this paper, I explore the ability of these "single-explanation" methodologies to detect the true innovation process underlying stale policy adoptions, by applying these methodologies to data generated from simulated innovation processes with known characteristics. I find that the methodologies often yield incorrect conclusions about the character of innovation. I conclude by presenting an agenda for refining a superior alternative methodology: the event history analysis approach to state policy innovation research introduced by Berry and Berry (1990).     

Bureaucratic Competition in the Policy Process

Recent scholarship has emphasized the important role that strategic bureaucratic actors play in the formulation of public policy. This study builds on that research by exploring the ways in which agencies strategically compete with one another over the content and character of public policy. Using insights from the literature that explicitly models bureaucratic competition, the study adapts an existing model of policymaking in subsystems to generate expectations about the causes and consequences of bureaucratic competition in the policy process. Finally, the article explores the utility of these propositions through a case study of a protracted policy battle over the management of natural resources in the western United States.     

The Differential Regional Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the U.S. States

In this paper we use time-series techniques to examine whether monetary policy had symmetric effects across U.S. states during the 1958:1–1992:4 period. Impulse response functions from estimated structural vector autoregression models reveal differences in policy responses, which in some cases are substantial. We provide evidence on the reasons for the measured cross-state differential policy responses. The size of a state's response is significantly related to industry-mix variables, providing evidence of an interest rate channel for monetary policy, although the state-level data offer no support for recently advanced credit-channel theories.     

Population geography

Population geographers are involved in contemporary policy issues, the production of quality work, and successful communication of research findings. This article reviewed some contributions population geographers have made to the understanding of the geographic impact of aging and the consequences of migration. Geographers have come late to the study of aging and have focused primarily on four main policy issues: 1) fertility decline, 2) housing demography, 3) aged patterns of housing and migration, and 4) government policy. Fertility decline research has highlighted information diffusion theories for fertility decline by researchers such as Zelinsky, Skeldon, and Noin. Changes in attitudes and the removal on constraints has been examined by Woods. Residential mobility studies have been the focus of researchers such as Gober, Moore, and Clark, and Myers. Regional labor markets and the movement of the "baby boom" through the life course have been examined by Miron, Plane and Rogerson, and Clout, who studied the empty nesters and the movement out of suburbia. Private residential housing has increased for the elderly in England and Wales (Hamnett and Mullings), and seasonal migration of Minnesotans results in lost sales revenues and high health and social costs for those too ill to travel (Craig). Geographers have not accomplished a significant thrust into the literature on demographic aging. Contributions to the transnational and international literature have resulted in internal migration studies by Clout on "counterurbanization" in northwestern industrial Europe, while Fielding, Baltensperger, Marchand and Scott, and Jones have examined the continuing rural-urban migration. The loss of urban population has been associated with inner city problems, the impact of labor supply and market demand, and the revenue and health care consequences in the work of Champion, Gibson, and Champion and Illeris, and Craig. Impacts are felt differently by geographic location, and assorted models have been developed for examining interregional migration. Population movement between countries will be a future major policy issue associated with disparities in development. The benefits and disadvantages of immigration have been examined. Refugee movements have been a neglected are of study.     

FORECASTING METROPOLITAN EMPLOYMENT USING AN EXPORT-BASE ERROR-CORBECTION MODEL

This paper shows that a time-series version of export-based location quotients, which decompose area employment into export and local components are co-integrated. Given the statistically established co-integrating relation between the time series for export and local employment, the Granger Representation Theorem tells us that an error-correction mechanism model is the appropriate time-series model specification. A set of forecasting experiments is carried out, in order to test whether the error-correction model produces better long-run forecasts that hold together in economically meaningful ways. Given the computer hardware and software that currently exist, the model developed here represents a simple, low-cost method for accurately forecasting local-area employment in the tradition of past work on export-base models.     

Modelling diversity: cultural district policies in Doha and Singapore

ABSTRACT

Over the last twenty years, cities around the world have seen the multiplication of cultural district projects, which aim to concentrate cultural organisations in a circumscribed urban space, or to label a neighbourhood’s cultural scene. This paper examines the adoption and adaptation of a globally circulating cultural policy model as an instrument of urban governance. Moving away from the notion of policy transfer, understood as a neutral and unidirectional process through which successful culture-led development models spread to other contexts, I show how local actors mobilise external references to position themselves in a transnational cultural policymaking field, and construct their city as a model. I compare the multi-scalar politics of urban modelling in Doha and Singapore, where globally circulating culture-led development models have been introduced not only as instruments of economic growth, but also as diversity management tools. On the one hand, cultural districts serve as discursive nation building/branding instruments to project an imagined identity locally and internationally. On the other hand, urban elites can mobilise cultural districts to make strategic shifts in the diversity management discourse, through an engagement with the urban environment, and the co-optation civil society actors at multiple scales.     

The "Mouse That Roared": Agenda Setting in Canadian Pesticides Politics

Issue redefinition and venue shopping have been identified as key strategies for enacting agenda and policy change, but much work remains to be done in elaborating these processes. I argue that an important aspect of issue redefinition involves shifting not only the image of an issue but also the bases for considering those issues—what I call policy principles. Policy principles are the core values, beliefs, or guidelines attached to policies that help direct decision making. The emergence and acceptance of new principles by the public and policymakers can be a vital source of policy change, at times having far greater consequences for policy than redefining an issue. Venue shopping is also a multifaceted undertaking involving efforts by policy entrepreneurs and advocacy groups to keep issues out of venues they would rather not participate in as well as move decision making to new arenas. Moreover, while the literature suggests that shifting venues is usually a sensible strategy, sometimes venue shopping can backfire. A case study of the municipal movement to restrict the nonessential use of lawn and garden pesticides in Canada illustrates these theoretical points and shows the applicability of agenda setting models to contexts outside the United States.     

Time-series modeling of gross migration and dynamic equilibrium

Firstly, the high association between in- and out-migration is investigated in a time-series context and modeled according to three categories: 1) job transfer, 2) job search and marriage, and 3) return migration. Under certain coditions it is shown that aggregation of these migrations yields a bivariate time-series model having feedbacks in both directions. Secondly, the recent phenomenon of sharp changes in net migration seems to be discontinuous and, hence, catastrophic modeling [Casetti (1981) may be appropriate. However, this paper considers gross migration between cores (metropolitan areas) and peripheries (rest of the nation) for which a continuous function seems adequate. This is done by introducing a multivariate time-series model. This model is empirically supported, especially in Japan, divided into 32 regions, by t-tests and Durbin-Watson ratios, although it excludes economic variables such as employment growth and wage differentials. This may imply that the recent dispersal from core to peripheral regions could be explained primarily by feedback from return migrants. Finallym, provided future streams of gross migration follow the past trends given by simultaneous equation estimates, in-migration and out-migration would approach a stable state in most regions. Irrespective of random shocks in the future, in- and out-migration would tend to approach a stable equilibrium. According to the estimation of the stable states, the 45 core regions in the US would continue to lose population through net outflows while those in Japan would continue to gain. The present model may thus be valid only for short-term forecasts. By introducing feedback and lag structures, however, it does offer one explanation for the recent population turnaround.     

Policy Decisionmaking Models in Practice: A Case Study of the Western Australian "Sentencing Acts"

While there is an extensive body of literature on a range of policy decisionmaking models, there is a lack of supporting case studies about the lived experiences of policymakers and the usefulness of various decisionmaking models in practice. This article examines two traditional models of decisionmaking, namely crisis theory and the rational comprehensive model, to assess their strengths and limitations in explaining the introduction of the controversial Western Australian Crime (Serious and Repeat Offenders) Sentencing Act 1992 and the Criminal Law Amendment Act 1992 (the "Sentencing Acts"). We argue that the "Sentencing Acts" cannot easily be reduced to, or explained through, a single policy analysis model, as significant aspects of policy remain hidden. Finally, we contend that to understand the emergence of the Sentencing Acts requires an approach that can account for the interconnection between structural, agenda-setting, and decisionmaking levels of analysis.     

Local Government Portfolios and Regional Growth: Some Combined Dynamic CGE/Optimal Control Results

A theoretical policy model is presented that combines regional dynamic CGE modeling and optimal control to explore the role of local government taxation and expenditure in enhancing regional growth. It contributes to the regional CGE literature by explicitly solving for an optimal policy and augments earlier regional optimal control models by adding endogenous optimization of producer and consumer agents in response to endogenously determined prices. Results of three policy regimes are analyzed in terms of gains in the objective function, impacts on income inequality, and sensitivity to model parameterization.     

Certainty, Severity, and Their Relative Deterrent Effects: Questioning the Implications of the Role of Risk in Criminal Deterrence Policy

In the late 1960s, Gary Becker incorporated into his formal model of deterrence theory an explicit statement that the theory's components—certainty and severity of punishment—are more or less influential than the other depending on an individual's preference for risk. The certainty of punishment is more influential than the severity of punishment in the decision of whether or not to commit crime if an individual is risk acceptant; if a criminal is risk averse, then the severity of punishment is more important than the certainty of punishment. Many aggregate deterrence studies arrive at estimates that reveal varying effects of the certainty and severity components of deterrence theory, with the certainty of punishment carrying the greater, and many times the only, weight. Leaning on Becker's extension of deterrence theory, empiricists assume that criminals have a preference for risk. Assertions that arrests and convictions are greater deterrent tools imply important worldly consequences because they indicate to governmental authorities where resources should be invested to insure the best deterrent payoff. In this article, I question both the need to take risk into consideration in aggregate‐level deterrence studies and the empirical evidence that has been offered in support of attaching greater weight to the certainty of punishment. I show, first, that deterrence theory, from an applied policy standpoint, is encumbered through the explicit consideration of risk preferences. Next, I work through the algebra of the statistical formulations of deterrence models and demonstrate that the greater weight associated with certainty could well be an artifact of the model specification. Finally, I reanalyze data that appear to be consistent with the greater weight for certainty than severity argument and show that the evidence does not support that inference. Potential criminals mentally combine the three deterrence components—regardless of whether they are risk neutral, averse, or acceptant. I conclude by considering what it means to a worldly application of criminal deterrence theory to place equal weight on the certainty and the severity of punishment.     

A stage and eclectic approach to industrial district development: two policy keys for ‘survival’ clusters in developing countries

This article analyses the history of Italian industrial districts (IDs) to identify lessons to help small and medium‐sized enterprise (SME) clusters in developing countries to move to higher stages of development. Transforming the 1990 seminal work of Brusco on distinct models of SME clustering into a stage approach, this article identifies a sequence of different maturity stages which the IDs passed through: initial craft production; industrialization through large firms; the fragmentation of production followed by the growth of smaller specialized units; and, finally, new routes to innovation and competitiveness. These phases help explain how development is a stage process which needs to be carefully considered and not rushed, through attempting to cross too many stages at once. Realistic steps are always necessary to create an effective base for growth. Furthermore, a theoretical framework is presented, which identifies three factorial levels that have intervened in the ID development process over the past 50 years. Economic, policy and social factors are identified and presented as drivers that work together to produce the structural changes that explain an effective development process. The final section emphasizes the relevance that this kind of analysis can have on the policy‐making schemes being applied in developing countries, with special reference to less developed types of clusters.     

LEADERS,FOLLOWERS, AND ASYMMETRIC LOCAL TAX POLICY DIFFUSION

Complementing recent theoretical models of tax competition with endogenous leadership, we empirically model local policy diffusion as a dynamic asymmetric process. Using a setting where local option sales taxes rapidly transitioned from nonexistence to ubiquity, we construct a policy leadership index to classify jurisdictions as leaders or followers. Using models that control for vertical tax competition effects, we show how asymmetric leader–follower dynamics characterize horizontal tax competition over the three decades that follow. A placebo test further supports our main conclusions. This methodological approach could be adapted to other settings where policies exhibit both extensive and intensive margins.     

Policy Networks in Complex Governance Subsystems: Observing and Comparing Hyperlink,Media, and Partnership Networks

Methods for observing policy networks have not kept up with the development of new network analytic techniques required to understand governance in complex settings. We compare three unobtrusive methods for observing policy networks based on hyperlinks between policy actor web sites, on media reports, and on public policy partnerships. Observations of one complex local water policy arena with all three methods provide a comparison of the general as well as actor‐specific network characteristics in the three observed networks. The core network of actors observed by all methods has similar network level statistics, highly correlated relationships measured by Quadratic Assignment Procedures models, and the same significant network microstructures as measured by Exponential Random Graph Models. The full networks including actors observed by any method also exhibit similar actor‐level characteristics, although the correlations across networks are stronger for bridging capital measures than for bonding capital measures, and each method has different apparent biases. Once biases are accounted for, similarities suggest that these methods may provide useful proxies for each other and for other relationships that are more difficult or impossible to measure, particularly when combined to offset each method's biases. If so, they can extend the range of policy networks observable with limited resources across space and time.     

Taming Foreign Exchange Derivatives Markets? Speculative Finance and Class Relations in Brazil

This article provides a critical interrogation of the Brazilian tax on foreign exchange derivatives deployed between 2011 and 2013. It analyses the drivers of the policy‐making process that led to implementation of the measure, locates it within the broader policy response regarding the management of cross‐border capital flows and speculative finance, and assesses its political economy significance in light of class dynamics. The author makes three arguments. First, this innovative policy tool must be interpreted in terms of the emergence of a specific form of state power allowing for the continuation of finance‐led strategies of accumulation, while mitigating some of their worst consequences. Second, this form of state power internalizes the subordinate positionality of Brazil in the global financial and monetary system. Third, while financialization processes have eroded the efficiency of a number of policy tools, this policy experiment demonstrates the possibility of regulating complex financial markets, provided that appropriate resources are dedicated to the task, and that there is the political will to do so. The article concludes by discussing theoretical implications, for how to theorize state and financialization, as well as political implications.     

Leontief's “Environmental Repercussions and the Economic Structure…” Revisited: A General Equilibrium Formulation

A 1972 paper by Leontief on an input-output model with pollution removal activity as an explicit sector is reformulated as a computable general equilibrium model. The advantage of this reformulation is that substitution and rational behavior by producers and consumers can be modeled and prices are rendered endogenous. The two approaches are contrasted regarding the consequences of policy changes about taxation and technological improvements.     

Calibration and Test of a Discrete Choice Model with Endogenous Choice Sets

Conventional discrete choice models assume implicitly that the choice set is independent of the decisionmaker's preferences conditional on the explanatory variables of the models. This assumption is implausible in many choice situations where the decisionmaker selects his or her choice set. This paper estimates and tests a discrete choice model with endogenous choice sets based on Horowitz' theoretical work. To calibrate the model, a new probability simulator is introduced and a sequential estimation procedure is developed. The model and calibration methods are tested in an empirical application as well as Monte Carlo simulations. The empirical results are used to test the theory of endogenous choice sets and to examine the differences between the new model and a conventional choice model in parameter estimates and predicted choice probabilities. The empirical results strongly suggest that ignoring the endogeneity of choice sets in choice modeling can have serious consequences in applications.     

A Spatial Prior for Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models

In this paper we develop a Bayesian prior motivated by cross-sectional spatial autoregressive models for use in time-series vector autoregressive forecasting involving spatial variables. We compare forecast accuracy of the proposed spatial prior to that from a vector autoregressive model relying on the Minnesota prior and find a significant improvement. In addition to a spatially motivated prior variance as in LeSage and Pan (1995) we develop a set of prior means based on spatial contiguity. A Theil-Goldberger estimator may be used for the proposed model making it easy to implement.     

Creation and Alignment of the Eco-innovation Strategy Model to Regional Innovation Strategy: A Case from Lahti (Päijät-Häme Region), Finland

This study focuses on the importance of eco-innovation in regional innovation strategy and policy development. It is conducted to get an in-depth understanding and learning about eco-innovation at the regional level and to draw some principles that are important in creating and aligning the eco-innovation strategy model to regional innovation strategy. The study highlights the new eco-innovation strategy model called SAMPO which was created and developed through a series of multi-stakeholder consultations which embodied the strengthening of the region's expertise—learning and knowledge-generating environment, design and innovation. These three areas of regional expertise are translated in the SAMPO model as three spearheads of innovation activities categorized as practice-based innovation, eco-design and sustainable innovation. Some principles are derived from the creation of the SAMPO model and put forward as strategic learning points in regional innovation strategy. The SAMPO model as positively acknowledged by the Päijät-Häme Regional Council, business clusters, research institutes and academic organizations may serve as a new framework that is useful in formulating and recreating eco-innovation policy in the region.