AGING NATIONS AND THE FUTURE OF CITIES*

ABSTRACT We investigate whether an aging population may challenge the supremacy of large working cities. To this end, we develop an economic geography model with two types of individuals (workers and retirees) and two sectors (local services and manufacturing). Workers produce and consume; the elderly consume only. As a result, the mobility decision of workers is driven by both the wage gap and the cost‐of‐living gap, unlike the elderly who react to the differences in the cost of living only. We show that the return of pre‐industrial urban system dominated by rentier cities does not seem to be on the agenda. Quite the opposite, the future of large working cities is still bright, the reason being that today's urban costs act as a strong force that prevents a large share of local services and manufacturing firms from following the rentiers in the elderly cities, while the supply of differentiated b2c services impede their complete separation.     

CHANGES IN THE RELATIVE EARNINGS GAP BETWEEN NATIVES AND IMMIGRANTS ALONG THE U.S.‐MEXICO BORDER*

ABSTRACT Using 1990 and 2000 U.S. census data, this study investigates changes in immigrant/native earnings disparities for workers in U.S. cities along the international border with Mexico vis‐à‐vis the U.S. interior during the 1990s. Our findings—based on estimating earnings functions and employing the Juhn‐Murphy‐Pierce (1993, JPE) wage decomposition technique—indicate that the average earnings of Mexican immigrants along the U.S.‐Mexico border improved relative to those accrued by their counterparts in the U.S. interior and by otherwise similar U.S.‐born Mexican Americans between 1990 and 2000. However, when comparing Mexican‐born workers to U.S.‐born non‐Hispanic whites, the immigrant border‐earnings penalty remained statistically unchanged.     

京津冀地区城市间行业工资差异及影响因素分析

基于2005-2012年京津冀各城市工资及其它社会经济数据,探讨了市场潜能、产业集聚、人力资本、制度改革等因素对城市间各行业工资差异的影响。结果表明：①市场潜能对各行业工资水平的增长均有一定的促进作用。②除消费性服务业外,各类产业集聚对地区平均工资水平的提高均有一定的促进作用,但制造业集聚带来的拥挤效应也已开始体现;生产性服务业集聚能够带动公共性服务业工资的提升,而公共性服务业缺乏对生产性服务业的反哺;产业集聚对消费性服务业工资缺乏带动作用。③在控制变量方面,交通基础设施对工资水平的带动作用逐渐弱化;科技投入、人力资本对服务业工资水平的带动作用较高,而对制造业影响较弱;市场经济体制改革对工资水平的带动作用仍未体现;政府市场干预能力的提高仅带动了公共性服务业工资的提升,而外向度的提升则仅对公共性服务业缺乏带动作用。     

ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC CAPITAL STOCK USING THE NEG WAGE EQUATION: A SPATIAL PANEL DATA APPROACH

ABSTRACT This paper examines the relationship between the level of public infrastructure and the level of productivity using panel data for the Spanish provinces over the period 1985–2004, a period that is particularly relevant due to the substantial changes occurring in the Spanish economy at that time. The underlying model used for the data analysis is based on the wage equation, which is one of a handful of simultaneous equations which when satisfied correspond to the short‐run equilibrium of New Economic Geography (NEG) theory. This is estimated using various spatial panel models with either fixed or random effects to allow for individual heterogeneity. Using these models, we find consistent evidence that productivity depends directly on the public capital stock endowment of each province, but also there is evidence of negative spillover effects from changes in capital stock in neighboring provinces.     

LABOUR MOBILITY AND PLANT PERFORMANCE: ON THE (DIS)SIMILARITY BETWEEN LABOUR‐ AND CAPITAL‐INTENSIVE SECTORS FOR KNOWLEDGE DIFFUSION AND PRODUCTIVITY

In this article we analyse differences between capital‐ and labour‐intensive sectors with regard to the impact of workforce composition and labour mobility on plant performance. By the use of geo‐referenced longitudinal employer–employee data on a micro level, we analyse labour flows between plants within and between labour market regions. The analysis is carried out using weighted least squares (WLS) regression analysis combined with additional variance analysis (ANOVA). The results show that there are differences between the sectors with regard to both in‐house workforce composition and type of skill inflow. A high degree of related knowledge in the in‐house workforce has a strong positive effect on plant performance in the labour‐intensive sectors. The analysis of labour inflow indicates that knowledge in the capital‐intensive sectors is localized – only intra‐regional labour flows give rise to increased plant productivity. In the labour‐intensive sectors, the geographic and cognitive dimensions complement one another; similar knowledge needs to be non‐local in order to be beneficial to plant performance, and unrelated knowledge mainly contributes to plant productivity growth when it is local.     

THE URBAN ENTERPRISE ZONE*

ABSTRACT This paper provides an analytical framework of urban enterprise zones in a context of regional development. The direct and indirect impacts of urban enterprise zones on regional economies such as job creation, urban unemployment, agricultural wage and changes in the regional economic structure are analyzed by incorporating the intermediate goods sector. The study suggests that the establishment of urban enterprise zones is a beneficial and effective policy instrument which can be used in promoting urban renewal and regional economic growth.     

SPATIAL DISCONTINUITY FOR THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF THE EU REGIONAL POLICY: THE CASE OF ITALIAN OBJECTIVE 1 REGIONS*

The economic impact of the Regional Policy of the European Union is still controversial. This paper exploits administrative boundaries as spatial discontinuity to estimate the causal effect of this policy on the Italian Objective 1 regions’ employment. The analysis, developed both in a border strategy framework (municipalities contiguous to the policy‐change boundary) and with more traditional RDD models balanced by spatial forcing variables (centroids’ distance and coordinates), shows that the EU Regional Policy produced a positive impact on employment levels, without any displacement of economic activities away from nontreated regions and a concentration of the impact in key economic sectors.     

THE IMPACT OF MIGRATION ON REGIONAL WAGE INEQUALITY: A SEMIPARAMETRIC APPROACH

According to economic theory, regional migration is a primary mechanism through which regional wage convergence is predicted to occur. However, this does not necessarily imply that regional migration has an equalizing effect on regional inequality. Despite considerable literatures on regional migration and regional wage inequality, little attention has focused on the relationship between the two. This paper investigates one of the primary mechanisms through which migration affects individual region's wage distributions. It adopts a semiparametric procedure to examine how the regional wage distributions in Great Britain have changed as a result of migration using British Household Panel Survey data for 1991–2007.     

Heterogeneous impacts of China's economic and development zone program

This paper examines the impact of economic and development zones (EDZs) on the productivity of incumbent firms in China. To deal with the selection issue, I first take into account potentially different selection mechanisms across two popular types of EDZs—economic and technological development zones (ETDZs) and high‐tech development zones (HTDZs)—by relying on multiple treatment propensity scores matching techniques. Next, I apply the difference‐in‐differences estimator to the matched sample and conduct an event study analysis. The results show that the respective effects of ETDZs and HTDZs on firm productivity are positive, but subject to a nonlinear trend over time. The size of the productivity gains depends critically on the type of EDZ, however. A new HTDZ (ETDZ) leads to an average productivity gain of up to 30.2% (18.4%) for incumbent firms in the 5 years after the zone was created. These findings suggest that the size of productivity spillovers for spatially targeted firms differ quite significantly depending on the strategic development and policy goals of the EDZ: HTDZs that focus on promoting indigenous‐based factors of learning lead to higher productivity spillovers compared with ETDZs that focus on promoting extra‐local linkages.     

THE LETTER KILLS: ON SOME IMPLICATIONS OF 2 CORINTHIANS 3:62

The paper focuses on an argument put forward by Augustine in his De doctrina Christiana: there are passages in the Bible that need to be read in a literal, contextual, and ultimately rhetorical perspective. This approach to the Bible (usually overshadowed by Augustine's own parallel emphasis on the importance of allegory) was needed to deal with customs—for instance the patriarchs' polygamy—that had to be evaluated, Augustine argued, according to standards different from those prevailing in the present day. This need inspired Augustine to utter some sharp remarks on the need to avoid (as we would say today) ethnocentric, anachronistic projections into the Biblical text. The long‐term impact of Augustine's argument was profound. The emphasis on the letter played a significant role in the exchanges between Christian and Jewish medieval readings of the Bible, which affected Nicholas of Lyra's influential commentary (Postilla). The same tradition may have contributed to Valla's and Karlstadt's audacious hermeneutic remarks on the Biblical canon, which covertly or openly focused on contradictions in the Biblical text, questioning the role of Moses as author of Deuteronomy. Traces of those discussions can be detected in Spinoza's Tractatus theologico‐politicus. The paper suggests that the emphasis on a literal, contextual reading of the Bible provided a model for secular reading in general. The possible role of this model in the aggressive encounter between Europe and alien cultures is a matter of speculation.     

The Historical Impact of Welfare Programs on Poverty: Evidence from the American States

Over the years, there has been a spirited debate over the impact of the welfare expansion associated with the War on Poverty. Many analysts have maintained that public assistance expansion during this period decreased poverty by raising the incomes of the poor (an income enhancement effect), while others have contended that welfare expansion increased poverty by discouraging the poor from working (a work disincentive effect). There has been considerable empirical research about the historical effect of welfare on poverty, nearly all of which relies on the poverty rate (i.e., the percentage of persons with income less than the “poverty threshold”) as an indicator of the extent of poverty. However, this work has not employed designs that allow researchers to sort out distinct income enhancement and work disincentive effects. We develop a model of poverty rates in the American states that permits estimation of these distinct effects—based on state‐level time‐series data observed annually for the years 1960–90—and we find that welfare had both effects during our period of analysis. We also calculate the net impact of increases in welfare benefits on the poverty rate—taking into account both work disincentive and income enhancement effects. Our results indicate that this net impact is dependent on three variables: the initial level of cash benefits, wage levels for unskilled workers, and the share of the benefit increase provided through cash rather than in‐kind assistance. Because of historical trends in these variables, since the 1970s welfare spending has become increasingly less effective in reducing the poverty rate. However, the significance of this result for policymakers must be tempered by evidence that flaws in the poverty rate as an indicator of poverty make it so that any finding about the net effect of an increase in welfare benefits on the poverty rate underestimates welfare's ability to lessen the true extent of poverty.     

The role of local immigration partnerships in Syrian refugee resettlement in Waterloo Region,Ontario

As of January 29, 2017 Canada had received 40,081 Syrian refugees. The scale and scope of this resettlement is historic, with the only comparable event being the arrival of 60,000 Indo‐Chinese refugees in the late 1970s. Since that time, much has changed in local resettlement policy. This research focuses on one component of these changes—the role of Local Immigration Partnerships (LIPs) in Syrian refugee resettlement—through a case study of an official refugee reception centre in the Waterloo Region of Ontario and a series of interviews with key informants from multiple sectors involved in resettlement. Results indicate Waterloo's LIP playing a sizable role, but not acting as the sole response body to refugee resettlement. Nevertheless, participants saw the LIP as a crucial part of Waterloo's resettlement efforts. Despite being a product of a tri‐level intergovernmental agreement, the LIP played a central role in shaping a local strategy by using local solutions. LIPs represent an example of place‐based policy that worked well during the Syrian Refugee Resettlement Initiative, but LIPs’ success may set a challenging precedent for future mass refugee resettlement events.     

Minimum Wage Policy,Rural Development and Poverty Alleviation in Malawi

This article examines the pattern of minimum wage changes in Malawi and some of their effects, and considers more generally the appropriateness of a minimum wage policy in developing country situations similar to that of Malawi. After a progressive decline in the real value of the minimum wage during the 1970s there is evidence that the government is attempting, through periodic and rather erratic corrective action, to maintain something like a constant real wage. Data from a Ministry of Labour survey demonstrate that such changes in the minimum wage do have a direct effect on wages paid, but that this is concentrated in specific sectors: outside these, minimum wage policy is ineffectual, and the effective coverage achieved in terms of the national work-force is very narrow. Since the most significant influence on the wages of hired workers is the elastic supply of unskilled labour available at very low wages from the smallholder sector, efforts need to be concentrated on raising the supply price of labour through positive policies pursued in the rural sector. Some special features of the rural labour market are therefore examined. Various measures could be taken here: one which seems likely to be effective in producing immediate results is the progressive transfer of burley tobacco quotas to smallholders.     

Time,Waste, and the City: The Rise of the Environmental Industry

In many US cities, especially those in the Rust Belt, the environmental goods and services (EGS) industry has played a significant role in restructuring local economies to promote new, flexible, and “creative” forms of service‐based labour. And yet much of the environmental work conducted in these cities has been directed at an industrial past, cleaning up the waste left over from long‐departed manufacturing sectors. Returning to David Harvey's earlier work on the urban process, this paper develops a theory of waste switching that situates EGS within a larger renegotiation of space and time across city landscapes. This theory is fleshed out in case studies of the EGS industry in Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee, where new cycles of accumulation have been built on refuse, toxins, and dead labour. These “toxi‐cities” and their cleanup challenge traditional conceptions of urbanisation as spatially—but also temporally—bounded.     

ALARMISM AND DENIALISM IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE: THE CASE OF THE NUTRIENT POLLUTION IN THE BALTIC SEA IN THE 1960S AND 1970S

Between 1975 and 1983 the Swedish labour movement discussed a proposal to establish wage earner funds that would gradually shift the ownership in medium to large companies from employers to workers. This article starts by shedding light on the genesis of the proposal in the 1960s and 1970s and the reactions it provoked in Swedish society. Focus then switches to how the Meidner plan was understood in Italy in a time of pronounced social conflict marked, on one hand, by the redefinition of the relationship between trade unions and politics and, on the other hand, by soaring opposition among the various trade unions and the growing distance between the two major leftist parties. These divisions reverberated on the ways the wage earner funds – in their various versions – were understood by the organizations of the Italian labour movement; the assessment of the plan's feasibility and its applicability to the Italian case came to reflect conflicting views on industrial and economic democracy and on the relationship between Nordic social-democracies and Italian reformism.     

Declining Food Security in a Philippine Oil Palm Frontier: The Changing Role of Cooperatives

The long‐held redistributive function of agricultural cooperatives — one of moral economy and poverty alleviation — has changed dramatically as they emerge as core brokers for agro‐industrial development in the so‐called ‘green economy’. This article examines the changing role of cooperatives involved in brokering oil palm production and its impact upon the food security and livelihoods of smallholders who labour in plantation regimes situated in historically uneven agrarian political economies. Findings show how, increasingly, cooperatives reinforce uneven agrarian social relations of production and exchange in which indigenous smallholders experience loss of land, poor wage labour conditions tinged with insecurity and prejudice, and mounting debt in an expanding oil palm complex. The article suggests that these changes in agrarian social relations negatively influence indigenous farmers’ food security pathways, with their access to and use of appropriate foods diminishing. It asserts that understanding the impacts of cooperatives on food security pathways requires a relational and situated analysis of livelihood change and agrarian relations in extractive frontiers.     

Twenty‐first Century Industrial Policy in a Small Developing Country: The Challenges of Reviving Manufacturing in Rwanda

The Rwandan government — widely lauded for its political commitment to development — has refocused its efforts on reviving growth in the manufacturing sector. This article examines how pressures from different levels — international, regional and domestic — have shaped the evolving political economy of two priority sectors (apparel and cement). To achieve its goals of manufacturing sector growth, the Rwandan government aims to access foreign markets (on preferential terms) and larger regional markets while developing effective state–business relationships with locally based firms. Despite the government's political commitment to reviving its manufacturing sector, its strategy has been both shaped and impeded by shifting pressures at the international level (through Rwanda's recent suspension from the African Growth and Opportunity Act), the regional level (through competition from regional firms) and the domestic level (through over‐reliance on single firms). Within the current industrial policy literature, there is limited reflection on how developing countries are dealing with the multi‐scalar challenges of enacting industrial policy in a much‐changed global trading environment. This article contributes to the industrial policy literature by addressing this lacuna.     

Transport Infrastructure,Agglomeration Economies,and Firm Birth: Empirical Evidence from Portugal*

Abstract. This paper uses municipality‐level data to study firm birth in Portugal from 1986 to 1997. This is a period of significant improvements to the Portuguese motorway network raising important questions as to its impact on the spatial pattern of firm birth. The paper focuses on the effect of such large‐scale road investment together with the role played by agglomeration economies for firm birth in 13 industry sectors and 9 service sectors. Motorways increase the attractiveness of locations close to the new infrastructure for most sectors. However, marked differences among sectors exist in the way transport improvements affect geographical firm‐birth concentration. The results also indicate that a more diversified local economic environment encourages firm birth, but little evidence is found for agglomeration benefits stemming from sectoral specialization at the local level.     

THE MAKING OF THE FINNISH MODEL

Earlier research has underlined the importance of the first incomes policy agreement in 1968, in analysing the qualitative shift to more consensual industrial relations and the stronger influence of labour market organizations in the Finnish welfare state legislation. The main argument is that this qualitative change in Finnish corporatism happened earlier. The compromise between employers and trade unions in the early 1960s was established not because of their strength but because of their simultaneous weakness and vulnerability. The left wing majority in the Eduskunta forced employers to adopt a more conciliatory and even pro‐active view of social reforms. Confederation of Finnish Trade Unions (SAK), which suffered from a severe split, was more than willing to co‐operate with Confederation of Finnish Employers (STK) in social policy as well as in wage bargaining.