LOCATION AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP: INSIGHTS FROM A SPATIALLY‐EXPLICIT OCCUPATIONAL CHOICE MODEL WITH AN APPLICATION TO CHILE

Occupational choice and heterogeneous managerial ability enter a spatial Dixit‐Stiglitz setting, linking location, wages and regional entrepreneurship rates. Market potential has a positive partial effect and wages a negative partial effect on the regional supply of entrepreneurs, both balancing in equilibrium with endogenous wages. Market potential increases profits, but also the opportunity cost of entrepreneurship. In the long‐run equilibrium with perfect mobility, the cut‐off level of ability determining selection into entrepreneurship will be the same across regions; moreover, regional differences in entrepreneurship rates depend only in differences in average fixed costs of firms. An empirical application is provided for Chile.     

Re‐valuing the Fringe: Some Findings on the Value of Agricultural Production in Australia's Peri‐Urban Regions

The agriculture that occurs in Australia's peri‐urban regions is not well understood, nor has its economic value ever been examined systematically. Using a spatial frame derived from research into population change, Agricultural Census data are used to calculate the value of this agricultural production. The analysis suggests that peri‐urban regions in the five mainland States produce almost 25% of Australia's total gross value of agricultural production. Evidence gathered from other surveys suggests that, in some respects, this may be an underestimate. Although qualified and provisional, these findings have important strategic implications for agricultural development, urban and regional development and, ultimately, sustainable development. However, peri‐urban issues are often submerged in public policy deliberations, and peri‐urban agriculture is poorly served by the Agricultural Census.     

Spatial and social mobility

This paper analyzes the relationship between spatial mobility and social mobility. It develops a two‐skill‐type spatial equilibrium model of two regions with location preferences where each region consists of an urban area that is home to workplaces and residences and an exclusively residential suburban area. The paper demonstrates that relative regional social mobility is negatively correlated with segregation and inequality. In the model, segregation, income inequality, and social mobility are driven by differences between urban and residential areas in commuting cost differences between high‐skilled and low‐skilled workers, and also by the magnitude of taste heterogeneity.     

LOCAL FOOD,URBANIZATION, AND TRANSPORT‐RELATED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

We argue that “buying local” does not necessarily reduce transport‐related greenhouse gas emissions, even if production technologies and yields are homogeneous in space. We develop a partial‐equilibrium model of rural‐urban systems where the spatial distribution of food production within and between regions is endogenous. We exhibit cases where locating some food production in the least‐urbanized regions results in lower emissions and higher welfare than if all regions are self‐sufficient. The optimal spatial allocation of food production does not exclude the possibility that some regions should be self‐sufficient, provided that their urban population sizes are neither too large nor too small.     

SOVIET POPULATION CHANGE AND CITY GROWTH 1970-79: A PRELIMINARY REPORT

The total, urban and rural population of major civil divisions of the Soviet Union and the population of cities over 100,000 are analyzed and mapped on the basis of preliminary results of the 1979 census. Total population growth rates declined during the 1970–79 intercensal period compared with the 1959–70 period while urbanization continued apace, although unevenly on a regional basis. The Slavic and other western republics, which show the highest urbanization levels of 60 percent and more, were also characterized by the lowest overall growth rates of 6 to 8 percent. Rural population declined almost everywhere outside a southwestern belt of high growth extending from parts of the southern Ukraine through Transcaucasia to Central Asia. Among large cities, moderate growth continues among cities with a multifunctional economy; high rates are evident in cities with major current industrial projects (automotive, for example) and in oil production regions; low rates are typical of some coal-mining and steelmaking centers. (For another report on the 1979 census, see “News Notes,” Soviet Geography, September 1979.)     

The urbanisation of Java, 2000–2010: towards ‘the island of mega-urban regions’

The mega-urbanisation process in Java is reflected in the spatial patterns of urban population growth between 2000 and 2010, although there has been a small deceleration in the rate of growth recently. This process is also clearly indicated in the significant increase in the number of urban localities, which reflects in situ urbanisation and rural–urban transformation in Java. Most districts and cities located adjacent to large cities experienced much higher population growth rates, compared to the core areas in cities. The formation of urban belts with a mix of economic activities connecting large cities is greatly expanding, while the small and medium cities, those with population sizes between 100,000 to one million, have tended to stagnate as their role and functions as centres of socio-economic activities are taken over by the large cities. Java’s mega-urbanisation appears unstoppable, and is largely uncontrolled at the present time. It is a daunting challenge for the central and local governments to manage the spatial urban growth in Java in the near future.     

Urban,Suburban, and Exurban Sprawl in the Rocky Mountain West: Evidence from Regional Adjustment Models*

Abstract. This article adapts a regional adjustment model to examine land use change in the Rocky Mountain West region of the United States. Three interrelated questions motivate the research. How does the proliferation of urban, suburban, and exurban sprawl in the Rocky Mountain West relate to the population and employment growth process? Are population and employment endogenously determined there? And what does this imply for the sustainability of economic development in the region? Through a series of regional adjustment models, the empirical analysis links population and employment growth in the Rocky Mountain West to explicit spatial outcomes and delivers substantive evidence of endogeneity between the two. The results suggest that the long‐term prosperity of the region depends on the preservation of the high quality of life it offers, and that greater intergovernmental coordination, careful infrastructure planning, and attention to the character of its economic structure may help to accomplish this. Future research should focus on looking deeper into certain explanatory variables used in this analysis and on developing a better picture of what the spatial equilibrium that regional adjustment models emulate may look like.     

A cooperative spatial future for RheinRuhr

As is the case with other metropolitan regions, there are claims that the emerging functional urban region of RheinRuhr needs to develop a cooperative spatial future. This article explores the underlying difficulties in seeking to move forward in regional cooperation and strategic regional development for RheinRuhr. At present, no clear shift can be observed from traditional land use planning and local development approaches towards more strategic planning for the whole urban region. There are still many obstacles to be overcome. Nevertheless, strides have been taken in the direction of improved cooperation. A dense and functionally overlapping (sub)‐regional associationalism seems to be one step towards future city‐regional governance and possibly government. An evaluation is reported of two new innovative modes of structural and regional policies, namely the Regional Conferences and the IBA Emscher Park Planning Company; their impacts on regional policy‐making structures are reviewed. A discussion on more recent approaches to regional cooperation follows. It is argued that, in the long term, as a multi‐regionalized space, RheinRuhr requires some kind of coordinator and moderator and new practices of regional planning and management. The future development of a RheinRuhr metropolitan region requires further steps to be taken towards strategic planning by the Land government as well as a deepening of the level of institutionalization. Some ideas are put forward on how the elaboration of a spatial Leitbild for RheinRuhr could be initiated and supported.     

Economic growth and restructuring in Canada's heartland and hinterland: From shift‐share to multifactor partitioning

The geography of the Canadian economy has long been dominated by heartland‐hinterland contrasts, with manufacturing identified as the dominant function of most heartland cities in analyses of the 1961 and 1971 census data. However, the proportion of employment in manufacturing has been declining in the heartland provinces of Ontario and Quebec over the past fifty years and some geographers argue that the heartland‐hinterland dimension of the regional economy is being overridden by city‐regions that are integrated into global networks of production and trade. The heartland‐hinterland trends are examined using multifactor partitioning (MFP), an advanced shift‐share methodology, for the period of 2001–2006. This is the first intercensal period in which Canadian business has faced the full impact of the removal of North American tariff protection and the increased globalization of the Canadian economy. The data covers employment by eighteen industry sectors for the seventy‐three economic regions defined by Statistics Canada. MFP measures the region and industry‐mix effects, which are interpreted as in the traditional shift‐share model (though they are derived more accurately) and, in addition, an interaction effect. The results demonstrate that the broad heartland‐hinterland differences in the distribution of population and employment growth are increasing not decreasing and that the hinterland is in fact falling further behind the heartland in employment growth. However the Calgary‐Edmonton corridor and the Lower Mainland of British Columbia are emerging as a western heartland. The population size of cities does affect their rates of employment growth, but so too does their location: the growth of heartland cities is outpacing those in the hinterland. The Appendix provides the equations for two‐variable multifactor partitioning.     

PECULIARITIES IN THE FORMATION OF POPULATED PLACES ON THE SEABOARD OF THE USSR

A number of investigators have noted a movement of Soviet population toward the seacoasts, contrasting with the nation's traditional inland development. The pull of the coast has been linked to the increasing foreign trade of the USSR and to greater involvement in ocean affairs in general. The author analyzes the recent growth of maritime urban places in terms of the nation's major maritime regions: Azov-Black Sea, Baltic, Caspian, Pacific and Arctic, compares the rates of urban population growth and discusses some of the factors that account for differences in regional development.     

Model Uncertainty in Matrix Exponential Spatial Growth Regression Models

This article considers the most important aspects of model uncertainty for spatial regression models, namely, the appropriate spatial weight matrix to be employed and the appropriate explanatory variables. We focus on the spatial Durbin model (SDM) specification in this study that nests most models used in the regional growth literature, and develop a simple Bayesian model‐averaging approach that provides a unified and formal treatment of these aspects of model uncertainty for SDM growth models. The approach expands on previous work by reducing the computational costs through the use of Bayesian information criterion model weights and a matrix exponential specification of the SDM model. The spatial Durbin matrix exponential model has theoretical and computational advantages over the spatial autoregressive specification due to the ease of inversion, differentiation, and integration of the matrix exponential. In particular, the matrix exponential has a simple matrix determinant that vanishes for the case of a spatial weight matrix with a trace of zero. This allows for a larger domain of spatial growth regression models to be analyzed with this approach, including models based on different classes of spatial weight matrices. The working of the approach is illustrated for the case of 32 potential determinants and three classes of spatial weight matrices (contiguity‐based, k‐nearest neighbor, and distance‐based spatial weight matrices), using a data set of income per capita growth for 273 European regions.     

A Long Way to Complexity: Nonlinear “Growth Stages” and Spatially Uncoordinated Settlement Expansion in a Compact City (Athens,Greece)

Recent urbanization trends reflect an increasing dependence on regional economic transformations, local population dynamics, and planning constraints, becoming intrinsically complex and nonlinear. Following this assumption, the present study proposes a new approach for the analysis of long-term urban expansion in a compact metropolitan region (Athens, Greece), clarifying the importance of spatial heterogeneity and volatility in building activity over more than one century. A spatially explicit statistical approach was used to define a development cycle reflecting the stratification of heterogeneous waves of compact and dispersed urbanization at municipal scale. While resulting in distinctive spatial patterns of building activity, long-term urban growth emerged as a multifaceted response to market stimuli, social change, and diversified territorial contexts. Results of a spatially explicit analysis of long-term urban expansion based on official statistics shed further light on processes of metropolitan growth and change, and contribute to design integrated strategies enhancing spatial coordination and a more balanced socioeconomic development of contemporary cities.     

THE IMPACT OF REMITTANCES ON REGIONAL CONSUMPTION AND INVESTMENT

This paper examines the effects of international remittances on regional economic development using spatial data from an original household survey carried out in the Republic of Moldova. I analyze remittance flows with a model that estimates regional (urban and rural) budget shares of consumption and investment expenditure categories for rural and urban households. An important contribution of the paper is that it analyzes the effect of remittances in the regions where spending takes place, which is not necessarily the same as the region where the households originating this spending reside. Using the multinomial logit approach, I control for potential selectivity and endogeneity biases of remittances. The results show that remittances lead to significantly increasing marginal productive investments in urban regions at the expense of rural regions. The fundamental finding of the study is that remittances influence the flight of productive capital out of rural areas into urban regions (a pattern similar to the crowding‐out effect of the Dutch Disease). The analysis carried out in this paper can be applied to other temporary income transfers and exogenous spending injected in the region that affect households' regional expenditure patterns.     

Regional and transnational spatial planning1: problems today,perspectives for the future

This introductory contribution presents some results of the EURBANET project, dealing with European urban networks in the framework of the INTERREG IIC programme of the North‐western Metropolitan Area (NWMA). This project was conducted between 2000 and 2001 by researchers of Delft University of Technology, the University of Glasgow, the University of Dortmund, the Catholic University of Leuven and the University of Nijmegen. The central objective of the EURBANET project was to explore the role of polynucleated urban regions in the reinforcement of the competitive strength and quality of life in the NWMA, as a contribution to transnational spatial planning in the NWMA. Four polynuclear urban regions are involved: Randstad Holland, the Flemish Diamond, the RheinRuhr Area and Central Scotland (Glasgow‐Edinburgh region). One of the conclusions is that it is necessary to move between scales: from the European Union to national spatial policies (and vice versa), between national policies and regional spatial policies and between regional and urban spatial policies. At each scale, specific demands for spatial planning policies in polynuclear urban regions are becoming increasingly relevant. This is a challenge for spatial policies and policy domains like infrastructure policy, transport policy, housing policy, economic and environmental policy. We present an analysis of how polycentricity has become central to recent discussions on European and north‐west European spatial and economic planning. We launch a spatial network approach to integrate spatial policies. These wide perspectives contrast heavily with the current less satisfactory practice of spatial planning on the level of urban networks and transnational governance.     

SPATIAL PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE SOVIET UNION

Analysis of spatial patterns of attained educational levels is helpful in understanding the cultural geography of an area, perhaps especially in the Soviet Union, with its many ethnic groups and stated aim of providing equality of education regardless of ethnicity or sex. The proportion of the population that had completed a higher education was mapped at oblast level from 1970 census data. High rates are found in certain urban areas, Estonia and Latvia, Georgia, and certain sparsely populated areas of the Far North, Siberia, and the Far East. There are regional patterns of disparity between male and female rates of completed higher education and between rural and urban rates, despite Soviet attempts to reduce these inequalities. The distribution of Soviet higher educational institutions conforms generally to the distribution of population, although access to higher education opportunities appears to be geographically limited in some regions. (Maps by Joann L. Krupa, George Mason University.)     

Are new patterns of low‐income distribution emerging in Canadian metropolitan areas?

Recent studies on urban poverty in Canadian cities suggest a growing spatial concentration of poor populations within metropolitan regions. This article assesses trends in the intra‐urban distribution of the poor population from 1986 to 2006 in eight of Canada's largest cities. We consider five well‐known dimensions of segregation, as identified by Massey and Denton (1988) , in order to examine changes in the spatial distribution of poor populations within metropolitan areas: evenness, exposure, concentration, clustering, and centralization. These indices were calculated for low‐income populations at the census tract level using data from five Canadian censuses. Although each metropolitan area has distinctive characteristics, we were able to identify some general trends. The results suggest that, in 2006 compared to 1986, low‐income populations lived in more spatially concentrated areas, which were, at the same time, socioeconomically more homogeneous and more dispersed throughout the metropolitan area. In addition, we observed that over the last twenty years areas of poverty have been located, for the most part, in neighbourhoods adjacent to downtown cores. Nevertheless, we found that poverty has mostly increased in suburban areas located outside inner‐city neighbourhoods. Growing socioeconomic homogeneity and dispersion of low income areas in metropolitan areas reveal new spatial patterns of urban poverty distribution. These findings should be cause for concern as social isolation in the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods could affect the life chances and opportunities for the residents of those areas.     

传统农区城乡体系空间结构演变及其形成机制研究——以河南省周口市为例

以传统农区周口市为研究对象，利用聚落斑块面积和相关社会经济指标，探讨了周口市城乡体系空间结构演变规律与作用机制。研究发现，周口市城乡体系空间结构演变呈现低端均衡结构（1973年）-点轴结构（1990年）-中心外围结构（2000年）-圈层结构（2015年）的演进过程，每种结构对城乡要素流动的方向和作用各不相同，从而使城乡体系的空间结构各不相同。交通导向机制是影响城乡体系空间结构演变的早期主导因素，促进城镇体系空间结构不断拓展，并带动乡村体系空间结构不断更迭；特色产业是影响城乡体系空间结构的新机制，助推城乡体系空间结构进一步完善；政府作用机制有效地引导城乡体系空间拓展方向，推动城乡空间格局结构性地演变。     

吉林省人口密度空间格局演变及其形成机制

本文运用集中指数、趋势面分析和空间自相关等方法对1990年代以来吉林省49个行政单元的人口密度空间格局演化及其形成机制进行分析。结果表明:吉林省人口密度以集中式发展为主,在空间上呈现"中间高,两边低"的纵向分布特点;2000年以来人口密度空间分布不均衡性进一步加剧,是吉林省人口密度空间格局变化的转折点。吉林省人口密度空间格局演变机制主要缘于自然环境、经济发展水平、交通格局、政策因素和历史基础等方面。     

都市区与非都市区城镇用地扩张的驱动力研究——以长三角地区为例

本文利用土地变更调查数据与经济社会统计数据,分析2001-2006年间长三角地区都市区与非都市区以及都市区内部不同单元的城镇工矿用地变动差异和主要影响因素,探讨都市区城镇用地扩展的驱动机制及演变特征。研究发现,虽然长三角地区城镇用地的整体扩张速度正趋于放缓,但变化趋势在不同类型的区域间存在明显差异。都市区比非都市区增长地更快,其中外围县地区超越中心市成为新一轮的增长热点地区。利用人口、非农产业、房地产投资等社会经济活动指标数据所做的回归分析表明,非农产业的发展是推动都市区城镇用地扩展的关键因素,而对非都市区的城镇工矿用地扩展而言,城镇人口集聚的拉动仍在起主要影响作用。在都市区内部存在功能分工的背景下,中心市与外围县在驱动因素和效果上存在差异。     

SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION OF POPULATION DEVELOPMENT IN A DECLINING REGION: THE CASE OF SAARLAND

We increasingly understand the causes of population decline: these can be, among others, processes of deindustrialization, decreasing fertility or the succession of a city through the stages of urban life as the city matures. However, we are still insufficiently able to explain why differences still exist between cities within regions experiencing the same macro‐processes and between cities of the same “level of maturity”. This research addresses this intra‐regional differentiation in population development in the declining former mining region of Saarland (Germany). Quantitative and qualitative analysis reveals that the differentiation in current decline stems from (1) the differentiated population development trajectories of the past, with a massive population boom followed by an aged and declining population in the industrial municipalities; and (2) the spatial distribution of amenities over the region; and (3) the spatial distribution and accessibility of housing opportunities steering migration flows. The latter are not necessarily concentrated in those areas that are attractive. Rather, the distribution of these housing opportunities strictly follows the planning logic of the supra‐local institutional framework, with a concentration of housing within easy access of major transportation infrastructure and in larger centres. The case study thus reveals that the mechanisms behind this intraregional differentiation are much more complex than often portrayed in the urban development and decline debate.