AGGLOMERATION AND TRADE: STATE‐LEVEL EVIDENCE FROM U.S. INDUSTRIES*

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the connection between economic agglomeration and trade patterns within the United States at the industry level. On the consumption side, industry‐ and state‐specific international imports and elasticities of substitution are shown to be systematically connected to consumption agglomeration effects, while on the production side, industry‐ and state‐specific international exports and intermediate input trade are shown to be systematically connected to production agglomeration and specialization effects. Industry structures play an important role in the determination and magnitude of these effects.     

城市群概念、形成机制及其未来研究方向评述

城市群是区域思想影响下,随城市集聚发展,城市的功能影响范围超过行政边界,城市区域协作出现并逐步加强而产生的一种人类聚居形式。国内外城市群相关研究指出,城市群是区域不均衡发展的结果,是人口、经济集聚发展的高级形态之一。通过综述国内外城市群相关研究进展,本研究指出,国内城市群研究应统一概念,明确边界,尽可能获取准确的城市群统计数据,进而探究其本质特征。在深入研究产业、人口等因素对城市群的作用机制之外,还应考虑个人、经济组织和政府的影响,正视城市群集聚发展存在的问题,寻求城市群可持续发展的途径。     

The Danube‐Rhine water system as a European regional integration structure

This article explores the role of two large European rivers — the Rhine and the Danube — in the structured development of the European territorial system. The water resources of the Rhine river, the tributaries and connecting canals have created the greatest industrial megalopolis on the continent. In this process and under contemporary conditions, the area is connected with the Danube basin by the newly built Rhine‐Main‐Danube canal. As a result, new structures are forming, having the character of an ecological‐economic system. It is in this direction that part of the European territorial system connected with the Danube is developing. As physical‐geographical and ecological factors accelerate economic development and integrate new economic structures, new opportunities arise. With the link to ecological and water resources, development of the Danube as Europe's newest, prospective zone of expansion is predicted.     

Geographical Concentration of Manufacturing Industries in China: The Importance of Spatial and Industrial Scales

Using the most recent data from the first economic census in China, a team of China-based and American economic geographers investigates the geographical concentration of manufacturing industries at the provincial and county levels by integrating proxy variables for natural advantages, agglomeration economies, and institutional changes (e.g., decentralization) associated with economic transition. The authors focus their investigation on manufacturing activity as a whole, as well as on manufacturing categories at the two- and three-digit levels of aggregation (the latter representing a finer scale of analysis than used in almost all previous studies). Interesting differences emerge in the locational patterns of industries whose enterprises pursue strategies of globalization vis-à-vis local protectionism. Differences also are apparent in the impacts of agglomeration economies and knowledge spillover at different spatial scales. The findings suggest that both spatial scale and level of industrial aggregation matter when analyzing patterns of industrial agglomeration in China. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L10, L20, L60, O18. 5 figures, 5 tables, 50 references.     

Transport Infrastructure,Agglomeration Economies,and Firm Birth: Empirical Evidence from Portugal*

Abstract. This paper uses municipality‐level data to study firm birth in Portugal from 1986 to 1997. This is a period of significant improvements to the Portuguese motorway network raising important questions as to its impact on the spatial pattern of firm birth. The paper focuses on the effect of such large‐scale road investment together with the role played by agglomeration economies for firm birth in 13 industry sectors and 9 service sectors. Motorways increase the attractiveness of locations close to the new infrastructure for most sectors. However, marked differences among sectors exist in the way transport improvements affect geographical firm‐birth concentration. The results also indicate that a more diversified local economic environment encourages firm birth, but little evidence is found for agglomeration benefits stemming from sectoral specialization at the local level.     

Locational Equilibria in Weberian Agglomeration

A simple Weberian agglomeration is developed and then extended as an innovative fixed‐charged, colocation model over a large set of locational possibilities. The model is applied to cases in which external economies (EE) arise due to colocation alone and also cases in which EE arise due to city size. Solutions to the model are interpreted in the context of contemporary equilibrium analysis, which allows Weberian agglomeration to be interpreted in a more general way than in previous analyses. Within that context, the Nash points and Pareto efficient points in the location patterns derived in the model are shown to rarely coincide. The applications consider agglomeration from two perspectives: one is the colocation behavior of producers as the agents of agglomeration and the other is the interaction between government and those agents in the interest of agglomeration policy. Extending the analysis to games, potential Pareto efficiency and Hicks optimality are considered with respect to side payments between producers and with respect to appropriate government incentives toward agglomeration.     

Population,light, and the size distribution of cities

We provide new insights on the city size distribution of countries around the world. Using more than 10,000 cities delineated via geospatial data and a globally consistent city identification scheme, we investigate distributional shapes in all countries. In terms of population, we find that Zipf's law holds for many, but not all, countries. Contrasting the distribution of population with the distribution of economic activity, measured by nighttime lights, across cities we shed light on the globally variant magnitude of agglomeration economies. Deviations from Zipf's law are to a large extent driven by an undue concentration in the largest cities. They benefit from agglomeration effects which seem to work through area rather than through density. Examining the cross‐country heterogeneity in the city size distribution, our model selection approach suggests that historical factors play an important role, in line with the time of development hypothesis.     

城镇密集区及其相关概念研究的回顾与再思考

城镇密集区是一种独特的地域空间组织形式,本文在对国内外城镇密集区概念研究进行归纳总结的基础上,从内涵与外延两方面探讨了城镇密集区和都市区、城市带、城市群、城镇体系的区别与联系。     

基于演化理论的我国城市合作机理研究

全球化和区域竞争引发了广泛的城市合作实践。城市合作是特定地域空间中城市共生演化的动态过程,城市合作的形成与发展,是多种行为主体在多种环境因素和历史因素作用下互动博弈的结果。以新近兴起的演化经济学和演化经济地理学为基础,建构了一个城市合作研究的演化分析框架,探讨了城市合作的本质和内容,分析了我国城市合作模式的类别、演化过程和不同模式的有效性。城市合作的本质在于追求包括分享、匹配和学习三大效应的更高层级的集聚经济,演化理论可以为研究城市群的演化过程,探索适合我国国情和区域发展实际的城市合作模式。     

THE EFFECTS OF AGGLOMERATION ON WAGES: EVIDENCE FROM THE MICRO‐LEVEL

This paper estimates individual wage equations to test two rival non‐nested theories of economic agglomeration, namely New Economic Geography (NEG), as represented by the NEG wage equation and urban economic (UE) theory, in which wages relate to employment density. In the U.K. context, we find that for male respondents, there is no significant evidence that wage levels are an outcome of the mechanisms suggested by NEG or UE theory, but this is not the case for female respondents. We speculate on the reasons for the gender difference.     

The Geographic Effects of Trade Liberalization with Increasing Returns in Transportation

Abstract This paper develops a model of economic geography that examines how the distribution of economic activity may change as a country opens up to foreign trade. The distinctive features of the model are that transportation is costly between locations within a nation as well as between nations, and that these transportation costs are subject to increasing returns to scale. A result of the model is that trade liberalization may cause the population of a country to become more concentrated in a single megalopolis. The large megalopolis may reduce welfare due to congestion costs, which implies that liberalization may unexpectedly leave the country worse off.     

Where Do Cities Form? A Geographical Agglomeration Model for Europe*

Abstract. In the recent literature on spatial agglomeration models, substantial progress has been made in modeling urban structures in terms of number and size of cities, but the question where cities arise remains unanswered. This paper illustrates that if a spatial agglomeration model is extended with a true geographical dimension, the location of cities can also be endogenized. A geographical agglomeration model for Europe shows that the size and place of cities can be simultaneously determined. The empirical results suggest that elementary economic forces such as agglomeration economies and transportation costs might be able to explain place and size of cities in the long run to a substantial degree. In addition, some new statistical measures of fit are discussed that are needed to evaluate simulations results of this kind.     

基于引力模型的关中城市间联系测度分析

在新一轮西部大开发进程中,为提升关中城市群整体实力,需要对关中城市间经济联系度进行科学测量,找出其中存在的问题、原因与解决对策。本文借鉴国内外学者分析城市间联系测度的方法,以标准引力模型为基础,在对关中城市的中心等级进行科学划分和可达性分析的基础上,测量了关中城市间的联系程度,找出关中城市群发展的现存问题,并提出从行政区划适当调整、发展规划与组织协调、财政体制完善、壮大县域经济发展等方面来促进关中城市群发展。     

旅游产业集聚会影响地区收入差距吗？——基于中国省际面板数据的门槛回归分析

本文利用中国30个省市区1999年～2009年面板数据,分别从线性和非线性两个角度实证检验了旅游产业集聚对地区收入差距的影响,估计结果显示：一方面,旅游产业集聚对地区收入差距具有显著线性负向影响效应;另一方面,通过构建非线性面板门槛模型,进一步检验了旅游产业集聚对地区收入差距影响效应的门槛特征,具体而言,旅游产业集聚对地区收入差距负向影响效应不仅存在基于旅游产业集聚的单一门槛特征,而且也存在基于经济发展水平、基础设施建设与产业结构升级的三重门槛特征。     

Increasing returns to scale in the towns of early Tudor England

Abstract

Urban agglomeration economies make cities central to theories of modern economic growth. There is historical evidence for the presence of Smithian growth and agglomeration effects in English towns c.1450-1670, but seminal assessments deny the presence of agglomeration effects and productivity gains to Early Modern English towns. This study evaluates the presence of increasing returns to scale (IRS) in aggregate urban economic outputs—the empirical signature of feedbacks between Smithian growth and agglomeration effects—among the towns of 16th century England. To do so, we test a model from settlement scaling theory against the 1524/5 Lay Subsidy returns. Analysis of these data indicates that Tudor towns exhibited IRS—a finding that is robust to alternative interpretations of the data. IRS holds even for the smallest towns in our sample, suggesting the absence of town size thresholds for the emergence of agglomeration effects. Spatial patterning of scaling residuals further suggests regional demand-side interactions with Smithian-agglomeration feedbacks. These findings suggest the presence of agglomeration effects and Smithian growth in pre-industrial English towns. This begs us to reconsider the economic performance of Early Modern English towns, and suggests that the qualitative economic dynamics of contemporary cities may be applicable to premodern settlements in general.     

金融集聚研究进展与展望

金融业集聚属于服务业集聚范畴,既与制造业集聚有共性,又有其独特性。金融集聚的研究主要依托于区位理论、集群理论和金融地理学。区位理论是金融集聚的理论基础,集群理论为金融集聚提供了研究范式,金融地理学的发展为金融集聚研究带来新的动向。金融集聚的现有研究内容主要集中于对集聚的动因、类型、效应、模式的探讨,以及金融中心的构建等几个方面。随着全球化、信息化对金融业的发展布局影响越来越大,未来应重点加强对金融分支行业和微观区域方面的研究。     

我国生产性服务业与经济发展关系研究

本文首先通过阐述我国经济结构的变化和目前生产性服务业的地位特征,分析我国生产性服务业发展与经济结构变化及经济发展水平的特征及关系,从而预测我国生产性服务业的发展潜力。然后针对我国经济发达地区,探讨生产性服务业对区域发展的作用。再以广州市为例,分析生产性服务业在城市发展中的地位及对区域的影响。试图从全国、区域以及城市三个层次对生产性服务业与经济发展关系进行研究。     

ON PITCHFORKS AND TOMAHAWKS*

ABSTRACT The core‐periphery model of the new economic geography has two “dramatic” implications: catastrophic agglomeration and locational hysteresis around the symmetry breaking level of trade freeness. In this note, we study a generalized version of this model with constant elasticity of substitution (CES) instead of Cobb‐Douglas upper tier preferences. The possibility of a continuous and easily reversible transition from symmetry to agglomeration now arises. One of the most prominent results of the new economic geography literature—the catastrophic consequences of small parameter changes—therefore, hinges crucially on specific functional forms for consumer preferences.     

The Spatial Distribution of Wages: Estimating the Helpman‐Hanson Model for Germany

Abstract.  Using German district data we estimate the structural parameters of a new economic geography model as developed by Helpman (1998) and Hanson (1998 , 2001a ). The advantage of the Helpman‐Hanson model is that it incorporates the fact that agglomeration of economic activity increases the prices of local (nontradable) services, like housing. This model thereby provides an intuitively appealing spreading force that allows for less extreme agglomeration patterns than predicted by the bulk of new economic geography models. Generalizing the Helpman‐Hanson model, we also analyze the implications for the spatial distribution of wages once the assumption of real wage equalization is dropped. If we no longer assume real wage equalization we find support for a spatial wage structure as well as for the relevance of the structural parameters of the theoretical model.     

Convergence and Divergence in the Australian Space Economy

Australia's space economy has changed rapidly since the 1970s through processes of globalisation, economic restructuring and demographic change. Trends in population distribution and patterns of employment and investment in economic activity highlight both spatial diffusion and concentration. Migration to ‘sun belt’ regions and suburban growth in the mega metro regions is creating population-led demand for production and services, thus creating investment growth and new employment in some consumer-oriented economic activities. However many internationally linked and national market serving economic functions are increasingly concentrated in the two largest cities at strategically located old and new nodes of agglomeration. No longer can population growth be equated directly with increased economic activity, and there are significant spatial mismatches between the outcomes of demographic and economic processes across the nation's cities and regions.