ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF INTERREGIONAL LABOR MARKET LINKAGES*

ABSTRACT. This paper presents a statistical procedure for empirically establishing linkages between regional economies. Using Granger's definition of causality and the final prediction error technique for lag-length specification suggested by Hsiao, a linked, multiregional employment model is developed. The forecast performance of the linked model is compared to models which do not include interregional linkages. It is shown that forecast error is reduced by taking into account employment interrelationships between regions.     

INTERREGIONAL WAGE DIFFERENTIALS: AN EQUILIBRIUM PERSPECTIVE*

ABSTRACT This paper empirically analyzes two competing explanations for observed interregional wage differentials among full-time U.S. workers: (1) differences in the average levels of market valued labor characteristics, and (2) differences in rates of return to the characteristics. Hedonic wage equations are estimated for broad U.S. regions using detailed measures of human capital, work environment, and personal attributes collected by a national random sample mail survey. Statistical tests reveal little tendency for interregional structural shifts in the wage equations estimated, an outcome which rests on the inclusion of important, but seldom measured, wage determining variables.     

A STRUCTURAL EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF METROPOLITAN LABOR DEMAND*

ABSTRACT. This paper uses a large data base to study metropolitan labor demand functions. The data are disaggregated by two-digit SICs in manufacturing for SMS As, and are corrected for changing SMSA boundaries. Labor demand elasticities are estimated for factor and commodity prices, transportation costs, state and local taxes and expenditures, and production-function shifters. Estimates from different years allow one to test Le Chatelier's principle in the context of interregional change.     

A CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS OF THE JOURNEY-TO-SHOP WITH PRICE UNCERTAINTY*

ABSTRACT In this paper we extend the contextual theory of demand to consider rational consumer behavior when the household must deal with some random fluctuation in the prices it faces. Prices at stores reflect “advertised specials,” which are potential cost reductions random across goods, and random in-store price changes, which can only be observed by visiting the store. Our theory of rational behavior includes: (1) calculation by the household of an ex ante plan for its planning period; (2) modification to take account of advertised specials; and (3) rational search behavior to take advantage of random fluctuations observable only on a given day. This theory utilizes an active cash balance as a buffer against random variations from planned daily expenditures, and reformulations of trip circuits to account for patterns of cost-minimizing search.     

INTERREGIONAL MIGRATION ANALYSIS

A formula for migration rate, proposed by Bogue, Shryock and Hoermann (1957), is modified to yield a simple coefficient of migration intensity for the analysis of the intensity of interregional streams of migration among the 72 oblasts, krays and autonomous republics of the RSFSR, the principal republic of the Soviet Union. The coefficient, which eliminates the impact of the populations of both region of origin and region of destination on the value of the coefficient, is obtained by dividing the shares of all regions of origin in the migration to each region of destination by the shares of the regions of destination in the total population of all regions. The 5112 coefficients of migration intensity are arrayed in a table and subjected to some preliminary analysis of migration patterns. The basic pattern is determined by 171 coefficients with values of 5 or higher, accounting for 3.4 percent of the total number of coefficients.     

长株潭城市群服务业竞争力的实证分析

服务业是扩大内需促进经济增长的重要推动力,是真正的资源节约型、环境友好型产业。通过设计一套评价服务业竞争力的指标体系,根据这套指标体系来评价长株潭城市群服务业区域竞争力时发现,长沙服务业竞争远高于其他两个地区,株洲次之,湘潭排名虽然最后,但发展潜力很大。因此长沙应继续深化服务业改革,株洲应优化服务业内部结构,加快传统行业改造,大力发展新兴行业;湘潭服务业应合理规划,选择重点行业优先发展。     

NEW COMPETITION IN SHOPPING-CENTER HIERARCHIES: AN EMPIRICAL COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE SPECIFICATIONS*

ABSTRACT. Within the framework of an existing hierarchy of shopping centers, Voronoi diagrams at each level of the hierarchy are used to define infringement on existing centers by new entrants. We distinguish four intensities of infringement—that is, four categorizations of when existing centers face new competition—and label shopping centers accordingly. Our aim is to determine empirically which type of new competition is best explained by various attributes of the incumbent centers. To accomplish this, logit analysis is used to relate the above labels to market-area population, store turnover, age, and hierarchical level of each shopping center in Edmonton, Alberta.