国家精准扶贫政策对贫困农户脱贫增收的效果评价——基于双重差分模型的检验

基于重庆市武陵山区和秦巴山区贫困农户与非贫困农户的调研数据，运用双重差分模型检验精准扶贫政策对贫困农户收入增长的影响。结果表明，贫困农户在精准扶贫政策的支持下，家庭人均纯收入增长显著，与非贫困农户相比差距进一步缩小；家庭主要收入来源，由单一渠道向多渠道转变，人均种植业收入和人均养殖业收入增长最明显，二者贡献率合计达到61.87%；农户的年龄、家庭人口数量、老人小孩数量、耕地面积、耕作半径、是否发展特色产业等因素对贫困农户家庭人均纯收入影响显著。因此，发展特色产业，解决贫困农户的教育、医疗、住房和土地撂荒问题是保障贫困农户脱贫后稳定增收的关键。     

DEVELOPMENT POLICIES,URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT AND DEFORESTATION: THE ROLE OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND TAX POLICY IN A TWO-SECTOR MODEL*

ABSTRACT. We model an economy of a developing country that produces an exportable manufactured good in an urban sector and a nontradable rural good. Manufacturing faces a fixed wage, which encourages urban unemployment. Changes in cultivated area in the rural sector involve deforestation or reforestation at frontiers. Government taxes to pay for urban infrastructure that assists the manufacturing sector. Increases in urban infrastructure may relieve or exacerbate frontier deforestation but expands manufacturing employment and reduces urban unemployment. Rural transportation improvements exacerbate frontier deforestation but expand employment in the urban manufacturing sector. A larger population, ceteris paribus, widens the rural-urban wage gap and exacerbates deforestation, but may cause manufacturing employment to expand or contract.     

Within-development density and housing prices in Singapore

This paper measures how much more households pay for less density in their immediate surroundings. Using transaction and administrative data and exploiting the introduction of a regulation that restricted the number of housing units for certain land lots, we find that households discount density: a 10% increase in within-development density decreases the price per square meter by 5%. Further, the mean price per square meter of the average development increased by 1%–3% after the regulation was introduced, while the amount of built-up space remained constant. The increase in total revenue suggests developers may underestimate the externality caused by density.     

On the Spatial Decomposition of Forecasts

This paper uses historical socioeconomic data to evaluate the elasticities of a Dendrinos‐Sonis one‐population/two‐locations nonlinear dynamic comparative advantage model for determining subregional shares of aggregate regional forecasts. The fractal dimension properties of the discrepancies between the actual and simulated data are used to enhance the forecasting framework. The analysis focuses in the first phase on total population, total personal income, and earnings by sector for the Columbus, Ohio Metropolitan Statistical Area, and Delaware County, one of its component counties. For the second phase of the analysis, these data for nondurable goods and for services are used, along with monthly data for total employment in Columbus, Cincinnati, and Cleveland, Ohio. Annual data for the analysis are drawn from the U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System, while the monthly data come from the Ohio Bureau of Employment Securities. The nonlinear dynamic model is shown to outperform conventional approaches for the majority of socioeconomic stocks.     

南京市区就业空间布局研究

本文采取就业密度分析方法,对南京市区就业空间布局进行实证研究。在南京市区现有11个区的基础上将南京市区划分为159个研究单元。依据2005年南京市1%人口抽样调查资料中"区县层面"分行业就业数据,以及2006年南京市用地现状图,修正匹配得到各个研究单元制造业、服务业、商业金融业及总的就业密度值。并运用Arcgis软件对就业密度值进行核密度分析以及3D模拟,分析南京市区制造业、服务业以及总就业的空间布局特征及原因机制。     

A STRUCTURAL EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF METROPOLITAN LABOR DEMAND*

ABSTRACT. This paper uses a large data base to study metropolitan labor demand functions. The data are disaggregated by two-digit SICs in manufacturing for SMS As, and are corrected for changing SMSA boundaries. Labor demand elasticities are estimated for factor and commodity prices, transportation costs, state and local taxes and expenditures, and production-function shifters. Estimates from different years allow one to test Le Chatelier's principle in the context of interregional change.     

The peasantariat and politics: migration,wage labor,and agriculture in Botswana

This article examines Botswana's wage labor migration in terms of 2 reigning theories: 1) as a dichotomy between traditional and modern society, with workers viewing agriculture as an alternative to more desirable wage employment; or 2) as a subordination of colonial society to capitalist society, with workers drawn from the resulting underdeveloped and impoverished areas and divorced from their agricultural potential. Approximately 90% of Botswanan households have a wage worker; less than 1/4 of households rely on the agricultural economy alone. 80% of the population works in agriculture in some way, but agriculture contributes only 35% of total rural income. Over 50% of households are below the poverty level, and most must rely on a variety of income sources for subsistence. 68% of rural households (Botswana is 84% rural) have absent wage earners while 45% have 1 or more wage earners present. Absent wage earners work mainly in unskilled and semi-skilled jobs in Botswanan towns (44%) and villages (22%), and lands and cattlepost locations (5%) in South African mines (19%), and other jobs in South Africa (8%). Individuals with low socioeconomic status tend to migrate to South Africa; those with higher status move to Botswanan towns. Working for wages has become customary for most Botswanans. This article undermines conventional development theories by showing the close interweaving of the modern and traditional societies, and arguing that traditional retention of communal land rights and cattle ownership served the capitalistic system by becoming the basis for wage earning; previous income source (agriculture) did not disappear, but their use was altered. South African mining returns to the Botswanan government since 1965 largely benefited a growing petty-bourgeois class and marginally improved the life styles of the peasant labor class. Botswana's development depends on the relationship between the peripherial laboring class and the dominating petty-bourgeois and its internal structure.     

THE IMPACT OF LOCAL DECENTRALIZATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. COUNTIES*

ABSTRACT We analyze the impact of fiscal decentralization on U.S. county population, employment, and real income growth. Our findings suggest that government organization matters for local economic growth, but that the impacts vary by government unit and by economic indicator. We find that single‐purpose governments per square mile have a positive impact on metropolitan population and employment growth, but no significant impact on nonmetropolitan counties. In contrast, the fragmentation of general‐purpose governments per capita has a negative impact on employment and population growth in nonmetropolitan counties. Our results suggest that local government decentralization matters differently for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties.     

Research briefing

Although pharmacies play an important role in providing information and advice on health issues to lower income people in developing countries, the distribution of urban pharmacies is not balanced with respect to population distribution in some of the districts of Istanbul. This situation can severely limit the accessibility of pharmacy services to the people with lower socio‐economic background. A multiple regression analysis is used in order to find out the factors which affect the spatial distribution of pharmacies in Istanbul. The number of pharmacies in the districts considered is taken as the dependent variable and the number of hospital beds, physicians, population, employment, income, number of educated people and distance to the CBD are taken as independent variables. According to the results, the population of the districts and the number of educated people, physicians and hospital beds are the most important factors affecting the location of pharmacies in Istanbul. The other variables are not found significant in affecting the location of pharmacies at the metropolitan level. Suggestions are made for better distribution of pharmacies and for further research.     

乡村旅游对农户农林业生产和外出务工影响研究——基于陕西22个旅游扶贫村农户调查数据

利用课题组2017年6-8月在陕西安康、商洛、汉中、宝鸡4市9县22个旅游扶贫村收集的841个农户调查数据，采用双重选择模型（DSM）等分析了农户参与旅游对家庭农林业劳动时间、外出务工时间的影响。研究发现，参与旅游有助于增加调查地的农户收入，旅游兼营型农户收入更高。在全样本中，参与旅游对农户农林业生产时间具有显著负向作用，但在参与了旅游的农户样本中，农户参与旅游一些特征或形式，如土特产销售，对农林业生产则有显著正向作用；在多个模型中，农户从事旅游对家庭外出务工活动具有显著的负向作用。提出了延长农业产业链、发展“旅游+农业”、促进农村一二三产业融合，提高景区带村作用、完善旅游扶贫政策等对策建议。     

The Dynamics of Work and Survival for the Urban Poor: A Gender Analysis of Panel Data from Madras

ABSTRACT This paper examines the functioning of the household economy and family labour supply over a five-year period among a panel sample of poor households in Madras using an event history methodology. The research focused on the key role women play in sustaining poor households despite constrained labour market choices. Women's earnings from daily self-employed work activities provided a substantial and steady component to total household income which tended to fluctuate with the earnings and family pool contribution of casually employed males. As economic stress events hit the family over time, women helped by increasing earnings, adding on secondary jobs, utilizing their earning status to obtain loans from a variety of sources, sacrificing their subsidized business loan for family debt repayment, and foregoing personal expenditures and leisure. At the same time women also managed the increasingly more difficult tasks of fulfilling basic needs of the household such as food, fuel and water collection, sanitation and childcare with less resources of time. Development policies must reflect the fact that women are central to individual family survival and as a whole they are key actors in the adjustment process to the crises in employment occurring in the local and national economy.     

THE IMPACT OF SPECIFIC-SECTOR CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, LABOR MARKET PERFORMANCE AND MIGRATION

ABSTRACT.  It is common in empirical regional economics to use total employment as an explanatory variable while investigating issues such as the level and distribution of income and migration. This paper argues that sector-specific changes in employment and labor market performance can have different effects on economic growth, the collection of tax revenue, migration, and the level and distribution of household income. As such, it is important to model sectors separately. We find that expansions in employment opportunities for a high-wage sector such as computer manufacturing or bioengineering, a medium-wage sector manufacturing, and the lower-wage sector of retailing have differing economic consequences for a small city. We use a data intensive computable general equilibrium model to obtain these results.     

Inclusive growth from an urban perspective: a challenge for the metropolis of the twenty-first century

This paper addresses the study of inclusive growth from an urban perspective. It proposes to focus the relationship between urban economic growth and income distribution in cities in which manufacturing production and external demand play a central role. Opposed to the literature that considers economic growth leads to an increase in inequality in income distribution, we present some operative economic tools from Marshallian Industrial Districts theory and from urban economic theory with which to develop an economic strategy for inclusive urban growth, making possible to achieve simultaneously economic growth and improvements in income distribution. An interesting example of a metropolis with a dynamic of economic and employment growth compatible with a reduction in income inequality is provided by Barcelona. This metropolis disposes a Survey of living conditions and habits of the population since 1986 that allows an analysis in terms of inclusive urban growth.     

宋代县望等级的划分标准探析

宋代县望等级制度基本承袭唐代,按“政治地位”和“户口”两大标准划分。但唐宋县望等级存在不少差异,其中的演化少不了后周制度的作用和影响,后周时期,望县、紧县失去按“政治地位”划分的资格,转而按“户口”划分。这一制度被宋代继承,实质是受次赤、次畿县的冲击影响。北宋前期,诸府属县严格按“政治地位”标准划分,与诸州属县按“户口”划分形成鲜明对比。至北宋末年,府、州政区属县等级“泾渭分明”的划分格局被打破,次府属县等级开始转向按照“户口”划分。唐宋划分县望等级的“户口”含义有所不同,唐代完全依据户数,宋代则根据纳两税的“主户”数,这一差异变化也与后周制度有很大关系。北宋前期,动态划分县望等级的政策得到了执行;到后期,则出现了“户口多而县望等级低”等脱离实际的现象,提升县等的户口标准成为解决县等与户口脱节问题较为务实的方案。     

明清州县衙门陋规的存留与裁革

明清州县的陋规收入很多,衙门的陋规固随地皆有,但不能随意多取,按规定额度收取者为合法,其额外苛求者则为非法。明清州县陋规的90%来自于理财,而理财中的大宗来自于赋税、平余、盐当、杂课,州县官在理财额内收取的陋规,一般都能够达到"不贪不滥,一年三万"的收入水平。如果额外苛求,是私派陋规、勒索陋规、需索陋规、私受陋规等,一旦发觉则要受到惩处。关于陋规是否存留,还是全部或部分裁革,无论是统治者,还是官员、学者都各有看法,可以说议论纷纭,莫衷一是。     

Alonso and the Scaling of Urban Profiles

How urban characteristics change with total population, their scaling behavior, has become an important research field since one needs to better understand the challenges of urban densification. Yet urban scaling research is largely disconnected from intra-urban structure, and this seriously limits its operationalization. In contrast, the monocentric model of Alonso provides a residential choice-based theory to urban density profiles. However, dedicated comparative static analyses do not completely solve how the model scales with population. This article bridges this gap by simultaneously introducing power laws for land, income and transport cost in the Alonso model. We show that the equilibrium urban structure of this augmented model matches recent empirical findings about the scaling of European population density profiles and satisfactorily represents European cities. This result is however not compatible with the observed scaling power of housing land profiles, and challenges current empirical understanding of wage and transport cost elasticities with population. Our results call for revisiting theories about land development and housing processes as well as the empirics of agglomeration benefits and transport costs.     

THE EFFECTS OF TAXES,EXPENDITURES, AND PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE ON METROPOLITAN AREA EMPLOYMENT*

ABSTRACT. Data for 28 metropolitan areas over a 15-year period are used to determine the impacts of government spending, taxes, and public infrastructure on total employment and disaggregated employment. After carefully controlling for the government budget constraint we find that taxes are negatively related to total employment and education spending is positively related to total employment. Nevertheless, we find that it is difficult for metropolitan areas to influence the composition of their employment with government tax and expenditure policies. Moreover, at current levels of public infrastructure, marginal changes in infrastructure have no strong effect on employment.     

流动人口对流入地的环境感知及其对定居意愿的影响——基于福州市的调查

基于福州市流动人口调查数据,从生态环境、人文环境和制度环境3个方面分析了流动人口对流入地的环境感知及其群体差异和对定居意愿的影响。研究发现:①流动人口对流入地的环境感知存在层次性,其排序如下:生态环境 > 人文环境 > 制度环境;②流动人口对流入地的环境感知存在群体差异,性别、职业类型、个人及家庭收入和方言适应程度的影响显著;受教育程度和居留时间仅有一定影响;而年龄、婚姻状况的影响不显著;③在控制了个体特征后,流动人口对流入地的环境感知对于提高其定居意愿具有显著的促进作用。     

FIRM SIZES AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: ESTIMATING LONG‐TERM EFFECTS ON U.S. COUNTY GROWTH, 1990–2000

This paper investigates the role of the business size distribution on income and employment growth in U.S. counties from 1990 to 2000. We measure the business size distribution as the share of employees across nine establishment size categories that range from microfirms (one to four employees) to large firms (1,000+ employees) and using three indices similar to a Gini coefficient. Results show that the business size distribution has a significant impact on county‐level growth patterns. Employment shares in small firms increase employment growth, but decrease income growth. One possible conclusion suggests policies emphasizing small firms and entrepreneurship during times of high unemployment.     

Assessing South Carolina's 1990s congressional districting

In this study, the authors employ a computer-intensive method to assess the factual basis for a race-as-predominant-factor claim against South Carolina's congressional districting plan. They use four algorithms that weight traditional districting criteria (equal population, the preservation of county integrity, and district area compactness) to generate 10,000 alternative plans containing a total of 60,000 congressional districts. Based upon the analysis of these plans, the authors conclude that: (1) race is a factor in the design of South Carolina's congressional districts; (2) race predominates over the preservation of county lines; and (3) race may predominate over district compactness.