Population: action for a new decade

This 48-page supplement reports on the world popultion situation and on the International Conference on Population held in Mexico City in 1984. Included are summaries of Conference recommendations, the text of the Mexico City Declaration on Population and Development, a World Population Chart, and reports on population studies. The main task of the 1984 Population Conference was to review the 1974 World Population Plan of Action and approve steps to update some of its goals in line with new issues that have emerged in recent years. The preamble to the 1984 recommendations states that the basis for an effective solution to population problems is socioeconomic transformation. It is noted, however, that even in the absence of socioeconomic development, family planning programs can have an impact on fertility levels. This report futher describes the debate on disarmament, abortion, economic policy, and occupied territories that took place in Mexico City. Also included is a glossary of terms used in population studies and a discussion on how the United Nations determines its demographic projections.     

Programme of Action: raising resources

The International Conference on Population Development (ICPD) Program of Action comprehensively covers a wide range of demographic and social issues by setting goals to be achieved over a period of 20 years. Since its initial implementation, population issues have been fundamentally linked with the countries' prospects for sustainable development. In the ICPD+5 review it was concluded that countries are committed to the Cairo agenda and to the idea that population and development go hand in hand. This commitment involves spending on population and related programs, which totals $17 billion by the year 2000 and $22 billion by 2015. Funding would come from countries (0.7% of gross domestic product to overall development assistance and 4% to population activities). However, the trend shows that countries have not achieved these targets and are decreasing rather than increasing spending on population issues, particularly from the developed countries. Findings of a survey indicated that the lack of resources is the greatest obstacle in attaining desired goals of developing countries. In addition, serious economic stagnation and an unfavorable international economic environment makes it difficult for many developing countries to resolve the problem of lack of resources, and technical capabilities are badly needed to achieve the goals of the ICPD.     

Population. The new challenge: translating Cairo success into meaningful activities

The newly named Commission on Population and Development, at its 1995 session in New York, stated it should have the primary responsibility for reviewing the implementation of the Program of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development, held in Cairo in September 1994. The Population Commission was renamed the Commission on Population and Development by the General Assembly. In debate, some countries reviewed their national experiences in population matters, stressing how the Program of Action would influence their policies. At mid-1994, world population stood at 5.63 billion persons, a report on world population trends and policies revealed. During the preceding 12 months, population had grown by 86 million and was expected to grow by an additional 87 million during the next 12 months. While China's representative described a near-crisis situation marked by a net increase in population of 14 million per year in her country, the representative of the Russian Federation expressed concern over the decrease in Russia's population. Between 1990 and 1994, world population had grown at 1.57% per annum. UN medium-fertility-variant projections indicated that the population growth rate would continue declining to 1.33% per annum between 2000 and 2010; 1.15% in 2010-2020; 0.95% in 2020-2030; 0.72% in 2030-2040; and 0.54% in 2040-2050. Consequently, the world population was projected to reach 7.5 billion by 2015 and 9.8 billion by 2050. Assistance for population programs had increased from $220 million in 1988 to $305 million in 1992, the bulk of which came from UNFPA. Family planning, integrated with reproductive health and carried out through a primary health care system, continued to receive the bulk of multilateral resources. Projects to improve the status of women, such as education for girls, leadership training, literacy programs, and projects designed to increase the income of women and their families were being supported by multilateral agencies. An update on global contraceptive requirements from 1994 to 2005 estimated that the total cost of contraceptive commodities would be $7.7 billion.     

Reproductive rights,family planning: a cornerstone of control

The main objective of the action plan for the International Conference on Population and Development is to assure access to high quality information and reproductive health care services in a manner that is affordable, acceptable, and convenient. Informed choice should be voluntary for childbearing and fertility control decisions. Services must be sensitive to the cultural, economic, and demographic diversity of local communities. The target date for countries to implement family planning (FP) and reproductive health programs that are available to all is 2015. Programs must involve women in all phases of planning, management, and delivery of services; outreach programs must be developed to involve men. Public and private FP programs should be directed to removing all obstacles to method use by the year 2005 by redesigning and expanding information and services. IEC (information, education, and communication) should also focus on sexually transmitted diseases, including AIDS. Programs should provide high quality condoms from stock on hand. About 55% of couples in developing countries use some form of contraception. The increase in contraceptive use has contributed to the decline in total fertility from 6.1 children per woman in the 1950s to 3.7 in the 1990s. At least 350 million couples still lack access to modern FP methods. The draft plan emphasizes that couples must be given the freedom and responsibility to decide on the number and spacing of their children.     

Exploring the Transition: Coursework to Research‐Based Study in the Geography Honours Year

The transition from coursework study to independent research is a component of many geography Honours programs in Australian tertiary institutions. Despite being canvassed at the 2003 annual meeting of the Australian Heads of Geography Units, it is a topic that has, to date, received relatively little academic attention. This paper developed from a review of the Geography Honours program at the University of Sydney, conducted by the authors in early 2004. The paper aims to help address the perceived deficiency of research into Honours study. Three topics, related to the Honours year transition, are discussed. These are: the rationale for the Honours year transition from undergraduate coursework to research‐focussed study; the composition and rationale behind coursework programs for geography Honours students, and student‐supervisor relations and their impact on independent Honours research. In the process of examining these issues this paper offers suggestions as to how tertiary geography schools can look to develop their Honours year programs. These recommendations are made with the understanding that all tertiary Honours programs are unique and that issues such as staffing levels and departmental structure will influence what suggestions are appropriate for individual institutions. It is hoped that this paper will encourage more discussion about the nature of the Honours year. It is through such communication that the value of the Honours year in student development can be enhanced     

中国人口文化素质指数及其空间分异

在构建人口文化素质指数的基础上,结合我国文化教育现状,对我国近十年的人口文化素质指数进行了定量与定性分析。结果表明:我国人口文化素质指数正在快速提高,但整体水平较低;人口文化素质指数的空间差异明显,东部最高,中部次之、西部最低,低于全国平均水平的省域主要位于西部;近2/3的省域发散趋异,收敛趋同的省域不到1/3,向上发散趋异的省域主要位于东、中部,向下发散趋异的省域主要位于西部,空间差异有扩大的趋势;人口文化素质指数与人口城市化水平、经济发展水平分别存在显著的线性关系和对数关系。     

Declines in fertility levels evident in Africa,notes UN Population Fund

This article reports on the UN Population Fund's (UNFPA) African regional meeting that was held in November 1997. The meeting was attended by an assortment of UNFPA representatives and program staff. This meeting followed up the 1994 Cairo International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) and 1995 regional meetings on the 1994 Plan of Action. These prior meetings emphasized the link between population and development and the urgency of meeting the needs of individual women and men in a people-centered approach to development, rather than a target oriented one. The 1997 meeting reviewed the progress made toward achieving the goals of the 1994 plan of action by the UNFPA. UNFPA aims to decentralize operations, to play a role in emergency situations, to encourage South-to-South cooperation, to advocate for reproductive rights, and to promote gender equity and women's empowerment. The meeting discussed UNFPA's role in reproductive health, population and development strategies, and advocacy in detail. Participants agreed that there were signs of fertility decline in Africa. Countries are beginning to adopt a reproductive health and rights approach and to address female genital mutilation as a human and reproductive right's issue. Population policies are being changed to include ICPD goals. 32 countries adopted new programs in 1996 and 1997, that integrated the 1994 strategies and selectively focused on issues of concern. Partnerships confirm that population issues are becoming an agenda for all. The major challenge ahead is the mobilization of resources, while dealing with civil strife and political instability.     

Africa's population and family planning dynamics

The historical and current demography of Africa in this discussion focuses on the context of population policy, contraceptive use, reproductive behavior, polygamy, and economic impacts. Sub-Saharan Africa countries have the highest rate of population growth in the world. 50% are aged under 20 years, and 20% are aged under five years. Urban areas are growing at the fastest rates in the world (5-6% annually). Population density remains low, except for areas where there is high soil fertility. Many African countries recognize the need for population policies. The most important donor to Africa, the World Bank, has pressured African governments to adopt family planning (FP) programs. A major World Bank study has shown that more FP services are desired by African women. Family expenditures for the 1980s for FP were estimated at $100 million annually, of which $53 million was provided by donors. Further expansion in the program is needed. The World Bank targeted contraceptive use at 25% of African married couples. Except for Egypt and North African countries, contraceptive use is around 3-4%. Another perspective on population reduction is to expand programs for child spacing and postnatal nutrition of mothers and infants. There has been a failure to turn health systems around to low-cost preventive health, particularly in rural areas. Infant mortality must be reduced before fertility will decline. Population growth can be slowed by changing the status of African women (high social status and recognition are associated with high fertility), age of marriage, child spacing, agricultural productivity, and nutrition. Demographic data on Africa have only become available during the past 25 years. African demographers are in short supply and require training abroad. Demographic data gaps and reliability problems are offset by the recent availability and quantity of survey data. Historical demography has produced conflicting results. Although some investigators, such as Ester Boserup, argue that population pressure results in agricultural innovations, Africa has yet to experience this phenomena. The youthful composition of the population guarantees continued population momentum. Fertility is enhanced by the cultural emphasis on perpetuating lineage and high fertility. Changes in reproductive behavior will depend on major social changes for women.     

Enforcing Emissions Trading Programs

Combining an analysis of the compliance incentives faced by firms in an emissions trading program, a comprehensive review of the enforcement strategies employed in Sulfur Dioxide Allowance and the Regional Clean Air Incentives Market (RECLAIM) programs, and a review of the compliance performance of these programs thus far, we are able to propose several practical guidelines for enforcing emissions trading programs. We stress the importance of prevailing market prices for emissions permits in determining compliance incentives, the importance of accurately measuring firms' emissions, and the importance of implementing enforcement strategies that remove the incentives firms may have to falsify emissions reports.     

Reproductive rights and health discussed

The 29th session of the UN Commission on Population and Development (February 26 to March 1, 1996) focused on reproductive health and rights, including population IEC (information, education, and communication). Speakers relayed national responses to the Programme of Action of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development, highlighted the critical role of nongovernmental organizations in meeting reproductive health needs through IEC and advocacy, and applauded the recent expansion of the Population Information Network. The Director of the UN's Population Division noted that in 1946, when the Commission was founded, the Division estimated that the world population would reach 6.3 billion in the year 2000. The latest estimate of 6.2 billion confirms this early estimate. Sensitive issues which the Commission expects to face in coming years are abortion, the aging of populations, HIV/AIDS, and international migration. The Executive Director of the UN Population Fund reported that guidelines are being developed on the quality of reproductive health care and that gender concerns are increasingly being included in program design and implementation. The Commission also considered the Secretary-General's January 15, 1996, report on world population monitoring, reproductive rights, and reproductive health. Finally, the Commission announced that Leticia Ramos-Shahani, an advocate from the Philippines, and Pathfinder International would share the 1996 Population Award.     

解放前我国地理学界关于小城镇研究的综述

本文对解放前我国地理学界关于小城市的研究进行了综述。我们认为,我国地理学者对小城镇较有系统的研究起始于本世纪三十年代,当时的小城镇大体是指人口规模为1000-5000人的各种农业、工业、商业、政治、文化等聚落;这一时期我国地理学者对小城镇的研究主要集中在聚落分类、小城镇地理位置和地理分布、小城镇形态及空间扩展、小城镇位置变迁与历史发展、小城镇人口、商业、文化特征以及城镇内部用地结构与房屋构造等六个方面;由于受当时社会经济条件及学科发展的影响,小城镇研究内容窄、程度浅、系统性不强,所运用的理论、方法也较简单、落后。     

How Do Different Types of Local Governments' Sustainability Programs Relate to Their Environmental Outcomes

Local governments worldwide have developed a suite of sustainability programs to improve environmental conditions within their jurisdictions. However, critics suggest that local governments' sustainability programs are more symbolic than substantial in that they are often developed to create the appearance of addressing environmental issues rather than actual environmental performance outcomes. Despite the skeptics, as yet, we have little empirical understanding of the environmental impact of local sustainability programs. This paper bridges the gap by considering how the design of 102 county governments' individual sustainability programs relates to improvement of their ozone quality between 2003 and 2013. After controlling for the spatial dependence of ozone quality among neighboring counties, this paper offers the evidence that local sustainability programs are related to improved environmental conditions. Moreover, the sustainability programs that are designed more comprehensively across environmental issues appear to have greater policy efficacy compared to those focusing on a few environmental issues. These findings provide optimistic views about the local, non-regulatory policy effort for improving collective environmental quality. This implication is particularly salient given the lack of strong national and international environmental regulatory regimes.     

Empowering women: an essential objective

The draft action plan of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) calls for enhancing women's participation in all levels of the political process and public life, promoting women's education and employment with attention to alleviation of poverty and illiteracy, halting discriminatory practices against women, establishing women's rights, and improving women's ability to earn income and achieve economic self-reliance. The document specifically refers to the importance of girls beyond their traditional roles as potential childbearers and caretakers. The action plan requests actions to enforce minimum marriage age laws and to assure women's choice in spouse selection. Female genital mutilation is prohibited. Preventive efforts are to be directed to infanticide, prenatal sex selection, trafficking in girls, female prostitution, and pornography. The men who are in positions of power have a particular responsibility to bring about gender equality and to focus on men's responsibility in parenthood and child support. Fertility is related to women's paid employment and higher educational levels. The longterm success of population programs is dependent on women's ability to make informed decisions at all levels and in all spheres of life.     

‘To Prostitute the Elements’: Weather Control and Weaponisation by US Department of Defense

The US military has a long and robust history of scientific research programs, often conducted in conjunction with civilian scientists at non-military governmental agencies as well as universities. These programs flourished in the immediate post-Second World War and the early cold war years, as the field of military science expanded to address the sprawling Soviet threat. One area of growth was in atmospheric science, which had already taken off preceding Second World War in conjunction with the growth of air warfare. Advances in meteorology, cloud science and climatology enabled military interests to align with weather forecasters and also agricultural interests, as old ideas about cloud seeding and weather control were revived in the light of new research. The military, largely through the Air Force, advanced a series of projects investigating the potential of weather and climate control, manipulation, and ultimately weaponisation. These programs, which were sometimes linked to US Department of Agriculture programs aimed at improving agricultural production, persisted for decades. Some of the newly developed tools were deployed: local climate manipulation efforts during the Vietnam conflict were aimed at impeding traffic along the Ho Chi Minh Trail, with mixed results. Significant efforts came during the Weather Bureau leadership of Francis W. Reichelderfer, whose papers contain a wealth of information about efforts ranging from cloud seeding to proposals to drop atomic weapons on hurricanes. These papers, along with those of Weather Bureau scientist Harry Wexler, provide a fascinating window to a time when the US military and scientific establishment seemed poised to grasp the levers of power over nature itself. This paper describes these little-studied programs, and situates these efforts within the broader military science programs accompanying the emergence of air warfare, as well as post-war science programs aimed at countering the Soviet challenge.     

Direct democracy and intergenerational conflicts in ageing societies

To evaluate the potential effects of population ageing on the outcomes of direct democracy, we analyze the effect of age on voting decisions in public referendums. In a case study of the Stuttgart 21 referendum on one of the largest infrastructure projects in Germany, we find that support for the project decreased significantly in age. A quantitative review of the relevant literature affirms that similar lifecycle patterns appear to be the norm in referendums on projects that require initial expenditures and pay off in the long run. Population ageing, thus, presents a potential threat to investment-like reform projects.     

Using GIS as an Aid to Understanding Urban Consolidation

Major initiatives to encourage urban consolidation in Sydney have been undertaken by the New South Wales Government in the last twenty years. The contribution of the research described in this article is to show the central importance of GIS in the methodology of analysing the policies, processes and outcomes of this urban consolidation activity. While the use of GIS to interrogate data from the Population Censuses conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to describe spatial distributions and characteristics is reasonably common, it can be used with local records to build up a picture of the character and impact of building the different kinds of dwellings defined as constituting urban consolidation. In this way ABS data can be used as a context within which to place GIS analysis of the registers of development applications as indicated in studies of three local councils in the south and south–west of Sydney. This approach shows the usefulness of using similar but not completely congruent data sets to investigate complex phenomena such as urban consolidation. It also highlights the importance of classifying and recording local information about urban development and change in a form that enables more proactive programs of policy formulation and operation.     

POPULATION ANALYSIS ON THE MICROCOMPUTER: A SYSTEM OF SOFTWARE PACKAGES

This paper describes a system of versatile software packages that has been developed by the author for population analysis on IBM-compatible microcomputers using PC or MS DOS. The series includes programs for the production of life tables, the analysis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in mortality, population projections, stationary-state population simulations and demographic planning, cohort survival estimates of net migration, and the analysis of migration matrices. Each of the programs in the series is discussed in terms of its principal analytical features, associated conceptual and methodological issues, and potential applications. The programs are intended for use both as basic research and planning tools and as instructional aids in university-level courses. The programs and related documentation are available on a set of four 360K diskettes.     

Moderating Local Capacity: Exploring EO 12372's Intergovernmental Review Effects on Federal Grant Awards

This article asks whether the Reagan Executive Order (EO) 12372 matters for intergovernmental fiscal relations today. To address this question, federal grant receipts from programs that are, and programs that are not, covered by EO 12372 are compared by examining the differential effects of political and local administrative capacity on each. Grant receipts are examined by coding federal grant award data from 1993 to 2003 using Catalog of Federal Domestic Assistance reference numbers. In the case state, Kentucky, Area Development Districts are the regional functionaries for the state single point of contact clearinghouse, by virtue of which status they review proposals for federal funding originating in, or affecting, their districts. Since federal award decisions take clearinghouse information into account on grant programs covered by EO 12372, differences in the effects of local capacity on receipt of grants covered and not covered by the EO are expected. Methodology used in this post‐only analysis is pooled cross‐sectional time series analysis with panel corrected standard errors. Results focus attention on the differential effects of government administrative and political capacity as they apply to federal grants covered, and not covered, by the EO.     

Population,progress, and peanuts

Population and development, more specifically on matters relating to family planning, contraceptives and abortion, have always been key issues at the UN. These were the challenges faced by the Member States of the UN during the General Assembly held in New York from June 30 to July 2, 1999. The 1999 session covered a wide range of questions, which reflected universal consensus on concerns including adolescent reproduction and sexual health, as well as gender-related issues. The special meeting lasted for 3 days of visionary hopes and politics for the future of the world, and also took into account the crucial issue of resources and fundraising. The 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo was the starting point for such an international understanding and consensus. In the years following 1994, the challenge to carry out lessons learned from the Cairo Conference and ICPD has now led to a final document, which guides nations across the globe on where to concentrate key future actions.