The Impact of a Customs Union with the European Union on Internal Migration in Turkey

Abstract The impact of the recent Customs Union (CU) agreement between Turkey and the European Union on internal migration is studied using an intra‐industry trade Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with intersectoral capital mobility under two alternative specifications for the labor market: the traditional Harris‐Todaro approach and the existence of a “wage curve” in the urban sector. Under both specifications, the numerical results show that the CU is welfare enhancing and causes a reduction of the urban‐rural wage gap as suggested by theoretical studies. At the same time, it leads to rural‐to‐urban migration and raises the capital rent, results that are counter intuitive with respect to the dual economy literature. Furthermore, the rise in formal labor demand and the migration response to the CU have not resulted in an increase in urban unemployment (i.e. the “Todaro paradox”), but rather to a fall in the unemployment pool. The study also shows that the Bhagwati‐Srinivasan proposal of maximizing welfare by uniformly subsidizing the entire labor market is impracticable, especially if the high wage union sector can negotiate employment conditions.     

URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF LABOR MARKETS: AN EXAMINATION OF THE “TODARO PARADOX” IN A SPATIAL CONTEXT*

ABSTRACT The Todaro paradox and the effects of job creation in urban areas will be re-examined in our spatial model in which the radius of the labor market is endogenously determined by the rational choices of workers. The travel cost of workers plays a crucial role in the choice between two different types of response, migration or commuting. By considering travel costs, we find that the Todaro paradox can be applied to developed, as well as developing, countries. Job creation in urban areas can produce a paradoxical increase in urban unemployment in developed countries, because the low marginal cost of travel will significantly increase the radius of the urban labor market and create new labor supply without migration.     

Do Urban Agglomeration Effects and Household Amenities have a Skill Bias?*

There are several hypotheses why urban scale affects wages. Most focus on agglomeration economies that increase labor demand, especially for high‐skilled workers (e.g., dynamic externalities stress knowledge transfers, and imply the urban wage gap favors skilled workers). Others stress urban amenities that increase labor supply and decrease wages. Amenities should have a stronger influence on affluent households if they are normal goods. By examining whether urban‐scale affects net returns to education, it can be determined whether skilled workers are influenced more by urban productivity or amenities. Empirical results suggest net returns to education decline with urban scale, implying a key role for urban amenities in affecting skilled workers.     

Urbanization patterns: European versus less developed countries

This paper develops a model in which the interaction between transport costs, increasing returns to scale, and labor migration across sectors and regions creates a tendency for urban agglomeration. Demand from rural areas favors urban dispersion. European urbanization took place mainly in the 19th century, with higher costs of spatial interaction, weaker economies of scale, and a less-elastic supply of labor to the urban sector than in less developed countries (LDCs) today. These factors could help explain why primate cities dominate in LDCs, whereas a comparatively small share of urban population lives in Europe's largest cities.     

Working,Shopping, and House Rents

The interaction between household demand for goods and for leisure and the supply of labor at various distances from an urban center is investigated for the case where rents are endogenous and adjust to equalize differences in utility produced by the greater time and money costs of the journey to shop and the journey to work. The model is solved for a set of realistic parameter values and this confirms that when rents are equal everywhere the demand for leisure can increase and the supply of labor decrease for households nearer the center, while once rents are endogenous the reverse must be true. For a household at a given location the elasticities of demand for goods and leisure and the elasticity of labor supply are calculated for all the parameters of the model. It is shown that the unavoidable costs of travel to work have strong effects on the rent gradient while the costs of the journey to shop have only weak effects, being offset by the variable frequency of shopping.     

The Global Economic Crisis and Unemployment in China

Two noted academic specialists on labor economics and population statistics of China examine the impacts of the global economic crisis of 2008-2009 on the job security of urban workers, and the ensuing repercussions for the Chinese society and economy. More specifically, they probe and determine the magnitude of urban unemployment in China in 2008 and 2009 as it appears to be reported in different segments of the country's immense labor market. A particular focus of the paper is on differences in unemployment among two groups of workers (those with urban hukou vis-à-vis rural migrant workers) with significantly different sets of rights and privileges, as well as levels of job security. The authors also provide an estimate of the urban unemployment rate in 2009 that differs from the official rate. They argue that measures toward further integration of rural and urban labor markets and reducing natural unemployment are ultimately more beneficial than short-term interventions to adjust cyclical joblessness stemming from the global economic crisis and recession.     

Human capital sorting: The “when” and “who” of the sorting of educated workers to urban regions

The sorting of high‐ability workers is often advanced as one source of spatial disparities in economic outcomes. There are still few papers that analyze when human capital sorting occurs and whom it involves. Using data on 16 cohorts of university graduates in Sweden, we demonstrate significant sorting to urban regions on high school grades and education levels of parents, i.e., two attributes typically associated with latent abilities that are valued in the labor market. A large part of this sorting has already occurred in deciding where to study, because the top universities in Sweden are predominantly located in urban regions. The largest part of directed sorting on ability indicators occurs in the decision of where to study. Even after controlling for sorting prior to labor market entry, the “best and brightest” are still more likely to start working in urban regions. However, this effect appears to be driven by Sweden's main metropolitan region, Stockholm. We find no influence of our ability indicators on the probability of starting to work in urban regions after graduation when Stockholm is excluded. Studies of human capital sorting need to account for selection processes to and from universities, because neglecting mobility prior to labor market entry is likely to lead to an underestimation of the extent of the sorting to urban regions.     

An Evolutionary New Economic Geography Model

In this paper we present a general new economic geography model with multiple industries and regions, full labor and capital mobility, land use in production and consumption, and a dynamic adjustment process in which consumers maximize utility and firms respond to nonzero profits. All industries use intermediate inputs as well as land, labor, and capital. Systems of cities form endogenously within this framework, including asymmetrical urban hierarchies and cities of different sizes and industry compositions. Each urban area has a bid-rent gradient and zones with land uses and densities as in the von Thünen model. The equilibrium depends not only on initial conditions but also on speeds of adjustment. The model is a prototype for empirical implementation, as illustrated with a simulation of the effects of transportation cost reductions.     

DISGUISED,URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT AND WELFARE IN A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL WITH SEGMENTED LABOR MARKETS*

ABSTRACT This paper integrates the theory of segmented labor markets with the Ranis-Fei model of dualism to analyze two types of unemployment; disguised unemployment in the rural sector and urban unemployment. The major results obtained are (1) sector-specific accumulation in the urban area may raise unemployment and lower welfare and (2) sector-specific accumulation in the rural sector always raises welfare but increases disguised unemployment. These results highlight the importance of regional resource allocation and the role of the agricultural sector in reducing urban unemployment.     

LAND AND URBAN ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA*

ABSTRACT Land to accommodate urban development in China is provided through requisitions by government officials, suggesting that land availability may be a constraint on urban economic growth. An econometric model of urban GDP growth suggests that land has constrained economic growth in coastal areas but not elsewhere. Elasticities calculated from the estimated coefficients indicate that land availability has a larger proportional impact on economic growth than domestic and foreign investment, labor supply, and government spending. The estimated parameters provide evidence about arbitrage opportunities created by discrepancies between urban land value and compensation for requisitioned rural land, suggesting rural unrest associated with conversion of farmland to urban uses may have some economic roots.     

The Local Implications of Major Job Transformations in the City: A Spatial Microsimulation Approach

The changing dynamics of regional and local labor markets during the last decades have led to an increasing labor market segmentation and socioeconomic polarization and to a rise of income inequalities at the regional, urban, and intraurban level. These problems call for effective social and local labor market policies. However, there is also a growing need for methods and techniques capable of efficiently estimating the likely impact of social and economic change at the local level. For example, the common methodologies for estimating the impacts of large firm openings or closures operate at the regional level. The best of these models disaggregate the region to the city (Armstrong 1993; Batey and Madden 1983). This paper demonstrates how spatial microsimulation modeling techniques can be used for local labor market analysis and policy evaluation to assess these impacts (and their multiplier effects) at the local level‐to measure the effects on individuals and their neighborhood services. First, we review these traditional macroscale and mesoscale regional modeling approaches to urban and regional policy analysis and we illustrate their merits and limitations. Then, we examine the potential of spatial microsimulation modeling to create a new framework for the formulation, analysis and evaluation of social and local labor market policies at the individual or household level. Outputs from a local labor market microsimulation model for Leeds are presented. We show how first it is possible to investigate the interdependencies between individual's or households labor market attributes at the microscale and to model their accessibilities to job opportunities in different localities. From this base we show how detailed what‐if microspatial analysis can be performed to estimate the impact of major changes in the local labor market through job losses or gains, including local multiplier effects.     

Big City Labor Markets and Immigrant Economic Performance

Franklin J. James spent much of his career working to understand and improve our metropolitan communities. His interests were varied, ranging from impacts of fiscal and economic distress on urban areas to understanding socioeconomic forces reviving our central cities. During the last several years, Professor James had turned his attention to examining the positive economic impacts immigrants and ethnic communities have for reinvigorating our central cities-and beginning to investigate how non-native American's will impact America's suburbs in metropolitan settings
This preliminary exploration examines destination choices of immigrants, the characteristics of immigrant labor markets, and the determinants of immigrant earnings. The article begins to explore indirect evidence on the economic efficiency with which immigrants and native workers distribute themselves within and among labor markets as well as the assimilation process facing new immigrants. Evidence is presented to explain how the earnings of recent immigrants are affected by their human capital characteristics, their race, and ethnicity, and other factors. We reject the hypothesis that immigrants participate in a tertiary sector of urban labor markets and conclude that the determinants of immigrant earnings are similar enough to those of U.S. natives that it makes sense to assume that they work in the same primary labor market in which most native White Americans work. We find that urban labor markets for immigrants are surprisingly efficient, thus enabling immigrants to take advantage of economic opportunities. A major exception concerns what appears to be a powerful effect of discrimination on the economic progress of Black immigrants.     

城市人均受教育水平对居民主观幸福感的影响——基于多尺度模型的研究

提升居民幸福感是和谐宜居城市建设和实现人民美好生活愿望的重要目标。地理背景特征对居民幸福感的影响在社会学、地理学、经济学等学科领域受到极大关注,但尚缺乏城市人均受教育水平及其异质性影响研究。基于2016年中国劳动力动态调查数据,采用多尺度线性模型探讨了我国城市人均受教育水平、人均收入与居民幸福感的关系。研究发现：①居民幸福感存在显著区域差异,东部城市居民幸福感最高,西部整体偏低。②作为重要的城市背景特征之一,与人均收入相比,人均受教育水平对居民幸福感有正向提升作用,即城市人均受教育水平越高,居民幸福感越高。③城市人均受教育水平对居民幸福感的影响是复杂的,在不同学历群体间存在明显差异,对高中及以下学历群体幸福感的提高具有积极影响,但对本科及以上学历群体的幸福感产生消极影响。     

Labor Specialization, Transport Costs, and City Size

This paper proposes a simple model of pre-industrial urbanization. Agglomeration stems from increasing returns generated by the specialization of labor, whereas dispersion is provoked by the transport costs of the agricultural good. Considering the existence of some urban institutions (in particular guilds), the equilibrium size of cities is derived and it is efficient. Within this framework, the effects of urban domination (e.g., taxation of agriculture) and the emergence of primate cities are explored. Finally, the transition between early and modern urbanization is studied.     

LIFE CYCLE AND MIGRATION TO URBAN AND RURAL AREAS: ESTIMATION OF A MIXED LOGIT MODEL ON FRENCH DATA*

ABSTRACT This paper examines which types of individuals are attracted to or repelled from rural and urban areas in France. Migration decisions among urban centers, suburbs, and rural areas are examined for three age groups. Differences between locations are assumed to be driven by agglomeration economies and externalities resulting from densities. We therefore stress the role of labor‐market size, land markets, and commuting time in migration decisions. The results from multinomial mixed logits show that large labor markets attract the youngest and in particular educated individuals. Larger family size favors migration from city centers to suburbs, whereas divorce and widowhood increase the probability of moving to an urban center.     

新疆墨玉县农村劳动力转移调查及动力机制研究

近年来,南疆少数民族农村劳动力转移的规模不断扩大,外出务工收入成为当地农民收入的主要来源之一。本文在分析墨玉县农村劳动力转移现状的基础上根据2007年的抽样调查数据和2002年以来墨玉县经济社会发展的相关数据,采用多层次多因素灰色关联分析和Logistic回归分析,从宏观和微观两个层面上探讨劳动力转移的动力机制。宏观层面上,农村基本经济指标与劳动力转移的关系密切;微观层面影响农村劳动力转移的驱动力按强弱依次为家庭人口数、是否为低收入户、在读学生数、户均可耕地面积等。最后得出结论,新疆少数民族农村劳动力转移的主要驱动力来自农村内部,来自城镇的拉力作用不明显,而受自然条件、经济发展水平和民族观念等因素的影响,劳动力转移的摩擦力较大。     

REGIONAL LABOR PRODUCTIVITY IN THE NETHERLANDS: EVIDENCE OF AGGLOMERATION AND CONGESTION EFFECTS*

ABSTRACT This paper studies the impact of localization, urbanization, and diversification on regional labor productivity levels and growth. We find substantial effects, accounting for roughly half of the explained variation in the labor productivity differences within the Netherlands in the 1990s. Diversification, urbanization, and localization effects are significant and positive for productivity levels. These levels appear cointegrated. The error correction specification of productivity growth surprisingly reflects negative agglomeration effects. From the theoretical model it follows that congestion effects must have taken precedence over agglomeration effects during this period. Both agglomeration and congestion effects are dampened by job density in neighboring regions. Finally, policy simulations with the estimated model show that spatial concentration is more harmful to national productivity growth than spatial dispersion.     

世界城市网络研究的热点变迁及主题判别——基于WOS数据库的知识图谱分析

借助可视化软件,从梳理研究热点及识别研究主题两方面,厘清世界城市网络的研究脉络与核心,探索未来研究动向。研究发现：①世界城市网络研究国际合作广泛,研究热点响应迅速,经历“世界城市”与“世界体系”分化阶段,网络结构聚焦阶段,城市网络的空间、地位、经济等多元阶段变迁;②研究由城市网络链接结构、全球中心城市、城市网络节点地位及城市网络经济学四大主题构成;③以往研究缺乏对网络结构绩效的研究,对非世界城市的关注不够,城市地位与经济之间的关系仍处于描述阶段;④对世界城市网络结构的内涵、非世界城市研究、整体网络与个体网络关系、经济学方向进行展望,使世界城市网络的未来研究更加全面丰富。     

转型背景下原单位职工迁居行为特征与机制——以广州市海珠区江南中街为例

本文研究原居住在江南中街单位职工的迁居行为,浅析其形成迁居意向的过程和择居特征。结果表明:单位职工的迁居比例超过60％,且迁居空间模式以近距离的近域迁移为主,近岗迁移和郊区迁移为辅,迁居方向联系较弱。分析其原因:经济改革和城市经济发展是促成单位职工迁居的基本前提,迁居户的经济能力是根本的决定依据,决定了迁出地和迁居形式。本文调查对象-单位职工具有一定的职业及收入共性,因此他们在迁居时所考虑的因素还包括了居住惯性,家庭生命周期、生活方式改变的需求及作为单位职工特定的社会因素等。     

The State of the Art in Modeling Migration in LDCS: A Comment

Early research on migration in LDCs, initially motivated by labor market postulates offered by Harris and Todaro, built upon general equilibrium models of interregional trade. In contrast, recent research on migration (such as Brueckner and Kim in this issue) builds upon a partial equilibrium analysis that is based on an urban land model. There are subtle differences between these models that complicate intermodel comparisons. The current paper, motivated by this complexity, has three purposes: (1) a mathematical explication of the state of the art in migration modeling, (2) a provision of further insights into the Todaro paradox, and (3) a suggestion for future research predicated on melding the urban land and interregional literatures.