Population growth and redistribution in Australia: 1911–1966

Concentration and redistribution indices are used to analyse the redistribution of population among the Australian states and territories, between 1911 and 1966. The relative importance of internal migration in this population redistribution is assessed. It is found that although the pattern of redistribution altered after the Second World War, the share of land and population held by each state came into closer agreement. Net internal migration was always small in comparison to natural increase and net international migration, but its role in population redistribution was far from insignificant.     

The changing pattern of urban fertility in Eastern Australia 1966-1976

This paper uses unpublished data from official sources to analyze variations in urban marital and overall fertility in Eastern Australia between 1966-71 and between 1971-76. It further attempts to assess the relevance of the convergence thesis to changing fertility patterns and to evaluate the utility of an ecologic analysis of interurban fertility differences. The data indicate that urban fertility levels declined dramatically in 1966-76 and interurban differentials were substantially reduced. By 1976, the 2-child family norm had been widely adopted throughout Australia, regardless of region, community size, or sociocultural composition. Examination of marital fertility trends suggests that, although different areas had different elasticities of response to cyclical fertility movements in the 1960s, the magnitude of these differences was insufficient to do more than slow the pace of the decline while increasing the pace of interarea differential convergence. Declines in both proportions married and marital fertility after 1971 were reflected in declining overall fertility in all urban areas in Eastern Australia. During this period, however, divergence replaced the convergence evident in the 1960s. The present high level of uniformity in both marital and overall fertility rates throughout the study area about mean levels means that the regionally variable effects of future cyclical changes in fertility levels may be difficult to identify. As a result, detailed analyses at the individual/behavioral level that focus specifically on attitudes, values, and family size preferences may be more appropriate for understanding of post-transitional demographic change than studies based on spatial analyses at the local level.     

Population redistribution in Sweden--long term trends and contemporary tendencies

Long-term trends in the spatial distribution of the population of Sweden are analyzed in this study. "Two geographical levels, the national and the local, are analysed in a long term perspective, [from] 1750 until 1990. The measure of concentration used is the Hoover-index on [the] county level. Some major determinants affecting population distribution are stressed; demographic components, economic geographic conditions, socio-economic structure, attitudes and population policy. During the last few decades the traditional trend of population has been broken and one finding is that concentration and dispersion is going on simultaneously on the national and the local level."     

Regional development in a resource production system: long distance commuting,population growth,and wealth redistribution in the Western Australia Goldfields

Resource towns often exist on a knife‐edge, largely depending upon global demand for their resource/s and, at the same time, playing a critical role in the development of a nation. The transition from single resource towns to diversified economies has been modelled on several occasions, but their application to other resource locales is difficult given the unique interplay of geographic, political, social, and economic factors. Nonetheless, Innis' Canadian staples theory may explain the political motivations of resource extraction and exportation, not least in relation to the Western Australia Goldfields. This paper seeks to explore the theory's potential in this context by examining the implications of high labour mobility. It employs a two‐step process using, first, a social network analysis to map the entire Australian labour commuting network and, second, a regression analysis of commuting, regional wealth, and population size against population change. While the Goldfields historically grew in line with processes described by Innis' theory, contemporary high labour mobility has created a variegated landscape of different development dynamics and trajectories. This finding carries implications for network patterns of residence and work. Labour acts to extend the distribution of wealth by sending incomes to the metropolitan core and to amenity‐rich regional towns across the State and nation. In such light, regional development scholars must view the resource town in its broader urban system of distinct but interlocked, and sometimes overlapping, activity nodes.     

1966～1976年的上海职业人口

“文化大革命”期间,上海的职工人数增长了127．14万人。这主要是因为20世纪50年代生育高峰期的人口,每年以20万人以上的规模,从非在业状态转向在业状态。上海全民单位的职工主要来源于毕业生(高达72．28％)和复退军人,其他人员皆因“身份羁绊”难有机缘。这一期间,因上海从事第二产业人数及比重持续上升,终于使上海失去了金融、贸易等城市型经济功能,从一个综合型城市转变为生产型城市,并造成城市布局混乱、交通拥挤、工业区与居民区杂处等一系列影响人们生活的社会矛盾和困难。     

什叶派乌里玛与1905-1911年伊朗立宪革命

1905—1911年伊朗立宪革命是什叶派乌里玛在1979年伊斯兰革命之前深度参与的一场政治革命.20世纪初,在伊朗内外危机的作用下,什叶派乌里玛、巴扎商人和现代知识分子结成盟友,为立宪革命的爆发创造了必要条件.伊拉克什叶派圣城纳杰夫的三位大阿亚图拉积极支持立宪革命,强力干预了伊朗政治发展的进程.以努里为代表的乌里玛则经历了从起初勉强支持到随后坚决反对的转变,成为反立宪派的中坚力量.1911年俄国入侵伊朗后立宪革命的失败,促使乌里玛把关注的重心转向了更加紧迫的反侵略任务.立宪革命是1979年伊斯兰革命的预演,蕴含着伊朗政教关系剧烈变动的基本趋势,对于解析20世纪以来伊朗的政治史和宗教史都具有不可替代的价值.     

Amnesty International in Crisis, 1966-7

During 1966, Amnesty International, which had been establishedin 1961 to campaign for the release of ‘prisoners of conscience’,was shaken by a severe internal crisis. It was alleged thatAmnesty had been penetrated by British Intelligence agents,and that it had channelled secret British government fundingto the families of political detainees in Rhodesia. Althoughthe organization survived the crisis, it resulted in the resignationof Amnesty’s founder Peter Benenson as President, andprovoked a re-evaluation of its operational methods. This articleoffers the first detailed account of this episode, drawing onhighly significant new archival and documentary sources.     

Illegitimate fertility decline in England, 1851-1911

This study attempts to determine the extent to which several hypotheses are able to account for the illegitimate fertility decline in England in the second half of the nineteenth century. The results of a pooled time-series analysis are consistent with the hypothesis that a rise in working-class prosperity accounts for much of the decline. Additional reasons for the decline, which cannot be ruled out with the data used in the analysis, include the diffusion of knowledge and the acceptability of contraceptive methods and a decline in agricultural employment.     

The changing pattern of urban fertility in eastern Australia 1966–1976

The article seeks to enhance understanding of post-transitional demographic change by examining the working out at the local level of the macro-scale societal processes underpinning the recent cyclic oscillation in Australian reproductive behaviour. Variations in urban marital and overall fertility between 1966 and 1971 and between 1971 and 1976 are described and analysed. In general, inter-urban variability in both measures diminished greatly, as did the explanatory power of ecological differentials, suggesting widespread acceptance of the small family norm throughout the study-area. While the process of convergence was continuous for marital fertility, structural changes contributed to later divergence of overall fertility levels, in accordance with Alonso's cyclical model of change. The current low level of residual inter-urban variability suggests that little more may be gained from analyses of this type.     

Population growth and cultural evolution

Brian Spooner, ed. Population Growth: Anthropological Implications. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1972. xxvii + 425 pp. Figures, tables, notes, bibliography, and index. $15.00.     

Time-space trends in Swedish divorce behaviour, 1911-1974

This study examines how the divorce rates in Sweden have varied over time and across different geographical areas during the period 1911-1974, and how these variations can be connected to the political, socio-economic and cultural development in Sweden. The analysis provides empirical support for the hypothesis that increased divorce rates have been the result of changes in the structural conditions that determine the degree of economic interdependence between spouses. There is a strong connection between the degree of urbanization and the divorce rate on a regional level for the entire research period. The statistical analysis of the regional data indicates that these patterns are connected to the more diversified economy that has developed in urban settings, in the form of a more qualified labour market and higher wages for females. These characteristics resulted in a faster and more pronounced reduction of economic interdependence between spouses, which made divorce more attainable in these areas as compared with rural settings.     

Probabilistic Regional Population Forecasts: The Example of Queensland, Australia

The variability of demographic trends at the subnational scale, particularly internal and international migration, renders subnational population forecasting more difficult than at the national scale. Illustrating the uncertainty of the demographic future for subnational regions is therefore a crucial element of any set of subnational population forecasts. However, subnational forecasts are currently prepared using deterministic models, which fail to properly address the issue of demographic uncertainty. The traditional high, medium, and low variants approach employed by many national statistical offices poses a number of problems. Probabilistic population forecasting models have the potential to overcome many of these problems, but these models have so far been limited to national-level forecasts. This article reports a first attempt to implement a probabilistic approach to subnational population forecasting using a biregional projection framework. The article sets out the forecasting framework, outlines the approach adopted to formulate each of the assumptions, and presents probabilistic forecasts for 2002–2051 for Queensland and the rest of Australia. The forecasts show a two-thirds probability that Queensland's population in 2051 will be between 5.4 and 7.7 million while the same range for the rest of the country is 18.6 and 22.7 million. The forecasts quantify to what extent greater uncertainty exists about the demographic future at the subnational compared with the national scale.     

RUSSIAN RAILWAYS AND THE SEABORNE GRAIN EXPORT TRADE: 1883-1911

The interaction between railway development and agricultural expansion is a salient feature of the post-emancipation Russian economy. The railway network's growth allowed the Empire's agricultural core to shift southeastward and facilitated rapid growth in grain exports. Exports rose initially through the Baltic ports and later through the ports of the Black and Azov seas. A limited degree of regional specialization emerged, but governmental constraints and overall economic immaturity hampered further economic development.     

1949—1966年陕西省博物馆的变革与发展

1949—1966年是陕西省博物馆的重要建设时期,其由民国时期的省立博物馆变为中华人民共和国西北区示范性博物馆,又随国家行政区划调整回归省级中心馆,期间经历了馆名更改、馆舍修整、藏品扩充以及与其他机构合并等一系列体制性变革,重新树立了博物馆人民观,打破了原有古物陈列观,采用大众化教育的陈列模式。调整后的陕西省博物馆融入社会主义博物馆体系,获得了新发展,成为中华人民共和国初期博物馆建设的一个历史缩影。     

The politics of productivity growth in Australia

A prominent feature of recent Australian economic discourse is the assertion that there was a ‘productivity surge’ during the 1990s, resulting from the neoliberal microeconomic reforms inaugurated in the early 1980s. However, the evidence for the productivity surge is routinely overstated, thus undermining the rationale for many past and future microeconomic reforms. There is also substantial evidence that productivity growth can have perverse socioeconomic and/or environmental consequences. Nonetheless, many policymakers, economists and commentators remain preoccupied with increasing productivity growth. This article examines the Australian productivity debate and concludes that this is driven more by neoliberal norms than socioeconomic necessity. These are manifest in a disciplinary discourse that constructs productivity growth as a national imperative, unencumbered by negative social and environmental externalities.