福建省城镇流动人口的空间分异格局——基于六普数据的分析

文章基于第六次人口普查数据,运用数理统计、空间自相关和GIS等方法,分析了福建省城镇流动人口的空间分异格局。研究发现,福建省城镇流动人口在沿海多而密集、以区外流动为主,开放性和活跃性明显,而在内陆则少而稀疏、以区内流动为主,封闭性和粘滞性突出,但沿海和内陆均存在内部异质性;大城市流动人口密集且来源地广泛、对人口城镇化影响大,中等城市流动人口规模较小,小城镇对区内流动人口有一定吸纳能力。文章还探讨了城镇流动人口空间分异特征的驱动机制、对区域社会经济发展和城镇化的影响,并提出相关政策建议。     

对城市人口分布与商业网点布局相关性的探讨

城市是人口和各种社会经济活动高度集聚的地域。满足人民的需要是城市商服、金融、文卫等项事业布局的基本原则。近几年来,笔者结合土地管理体制改革进行了人口分布与多种城市用地配置关系的探讨。本文是对天津市区人口分布与商业网点布局既互相吸引又在一定程度上互相排斥的关系的分析阐述。     

ON THE POPULATION DENSITY DISTRIBUTION ACROSS SPACE: A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH

Working within a Bayesian parametric framework, we develop a novel approach to studying the distribution of regional population density across space. By exploiting the Gamma distribution, we are able to introduce heterogeneity across space without incurring an a priori definition of territorial units. Our contribution also permits the inclusion of an approximation of individual preferences as a further driving force in location choices. We perform an empirical application to the case of Massachusetts. Our results demonstrate that a subjective measure of distance performs well in replicating the population distribution across Massachusetts.     

RAPID REGIONAL ENLARGEMENT IN SWEDEN: A PHENOMENON MISSING AN EXPLANATION

According to Swedish register data, regional size and the extent of commuting have both increased rapidly in recent decades. From the perspective of policy-making authorities, this would indicate good prospects for regional development, as small regions could be integrated into larger ones resulting in increased economic growth. However, there are few concrete manifestations of such regional enlargement, and alternative datasets give other impressions of the effects of commuting. Here we argue that this apparent growth might stem from several problems inherent in a register-based way of measuring changes in commuting patterns. Thus, regional enlargement and the extent of commuting may be exaggerated when measured conventionally, and the high hopes of using such enlargement to lever regional development might be misplaced. More generally, this study considers the problems arising as census or other enquiry and interview based data are replaced by register data.     

基于信息权力论的智慧城市建设刍议

基于信息权力论视角,智慧城市的建设可以理解为面向信息权力争夺的城市竞争力提升战略。本文将信息权力分解为信息生产、信息获取和信息控制三个权力维度,并对其测算方法进行了讨论和定义;在此基础上,对我国现有23个"智慧城市"的信息权力进行了测度,并将之与城市竞争力评价结果进行了比较。分析结论显示,我国城市信息权力个体差异明显,尤其表现在信息生产和信息控制方面;城市信息权力和城市竞争力之间的多种组合类型,亦可为进一步的智慧城市建设因地制宜提供借鉴。根据分析结论,特别强调对于信息权力培育的重视,以及信息生产、信息获取和信息控制能力三者的协调发展。     

POPULATION DENSITY IN A CENTRAL‐PLACE SYSTEM

The existing empirical literature about polycentric population density has focused on the urban scale, and the alternative models proposed in that context have been justified using heuristic arguments. This paper describes how polycentric density distributions can, in general, be endowed with a theoretical framework which differs from the existing literature with respect to the treatment of centers: instead of assuming that they represent places of work, it assumes they are places that provide goods and services to households. This imposes a hierarchical structure on the model, which allows replacing the set of distances to all centers (typically used in the existing literature as the same explanans irrespectively of location) with a smaller set of distances that corresponds to the number of levels in the hierarchy and varies with location. The central‐place framework used also provides a direct link between a polycentric model and the Clark formula, in the sense that the latter can emerge through a smoothing procedure of the former. Finally, in the context of central places, the scope of related empirical investigations can be extended naturally from the urban to the regional scale. This is the scale of a simple test presented here, which has been specifically included to support the corresponding theoretical arguments about the structure of a polycentric density gradient. The paper concludes with some expected problems and advantages of applying these ideas to the urban scale.     

西安市人口的分布变动研究

基于三次人口普查数据,对西安市80年代以来的人口分布变动进行了系统研究。结果表明:西安市在20世纪80年代便已形成"中心区人口减少、内圈和中圈人口快速增长、外圈人口低速增长"的区域差异格局,90年代这种区域差异格局更明显。通过人口分布模型的回归拟合,尝试性预测了西安市未来人口分布的趋势。结果显示:2010年西安市人口分布的峰值将出现在距市中心约2.5km的城墙与二环线之间。最后探讨了西安市人口分布变动的促进机制。     

城市旅游与城市发展的动态模式探讨

旅游发展与城市发展密不可分,城市发展与旅游发展是处于动态的发展之中,既相互促进、又相互制约,因此在不同的地域和城市发展阶段,城市发展和城市旅游发展的行为表现出非线性特征和多种模式。本研究总结了和研究了旅游城市化、都市城市旅游、环城游憩带、旅游与城市转型、旅游城镇的衰落等城市旅游与城市发展的动态模式,并建立城市旅游与发展的一般反馈模型,找出导致城市发展和城市旅游发展非线性特征的内部结构。研究表明驱动城市旅游增长的正反馈结构力量不够大,而旅游和城市增长引发的负反馈机制在短期内就会蓄积力量,限制城市旅游的进一步增长。城市旅游政策只有预见并避免这些限制性结构,同时加强正反馈才能达到长期有效的目标。     

中国城市人口集聚分布——基于空间效应的研究

城市人口集聚分布以及城市带的形成是一个空间现象,空间力量对其形成和演化具有重要影响。本文应用空间计量经济学与趋势面分析相结合方法,以617个县级以上城市1998年和2011年的城镇人口和经纬度坐标数据来研究中国城市人口空间集聚分布与趋势。研究发现,中国城市人口分布与其周围相邻城市的人口分布关系密切,并且其6阶空间自相关效应是最强的;同时地理位置对中国城市人口体系的空间分布和纵向形态形成具有显著影响。在空间自相关和空间位置相关的共同作用下,城市人口规模聚集区已在东部沿海地区形成。