Accounting for Air Pollution Emissions in Measures of State Manufacturing Productivity Growth

A Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index is employed to account for both marketed output and the output of pollution abatement activities of U.S. state manufacturing sectors for –1986. The index allows us to decompose the change in productivity into measures of change in efficiency and technical change. By accounting for the change in emissions, average annual productivity growth is 3.6 percent, whereas it is 1.7 percent when emissions are ignored. We also find adjusted productivity growth improved after 1977, and "Frost Belt" states with rapidly growing manufacturing sectors have significantly higher rates of productivity growth than "Sun Belt" states with slow growing manufacturing sectors.     

THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF U.S. CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS: STYLIZED FACTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE POLICY

We characterize the evolution of U.S. carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions using an index number decomposition technique which partitions the 1963–2008 growth of states’ energy‐related CO₂ into changes in five driving factors: the emission intensity of energy use, the energy intensity of economic activity, the composition of states’ output, per capita income and population. Compositional change and declining energy intensity attenuate emissions growth, but their impacts are offset by increasing population and income. Despite absolute interstate divergence in both emissions and their precursors, states’ emission‐ and energy intensities—and ultimately, CO₂—appear to be stochastically converging. We assess the implications of these trends using a novel vector autoregression (VAR) emission forecasting technique based on our index numbers. The resulting emission projections are comparable to, but generally exceed, those forecast by the 2010 EIA Annual Energy Outlook.     

Labor Productivity in Western Europe 1975–1985: An Intercountry, Interindustry Analysis

Using intercountry input-output tables and disaggregated employment data, we decompose labor productivity growth between 1975 and 1985 in six Western European countries into partial effects of six determinants including changing international trade and changing final demand. To this end, new multiplicative decomposition formulas are derived and implemented. In a similar way, we study labor productivity changes in vertically integrated industries. The effects of structural change on convergence are investigated also. We see this paper as an attempt to merge the convergence literature with earlier single-country productivity-change decompositions using input-output data.     

TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES IN MANUFACTURING, 1959-73*

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the determinants of productivity growth in the manufacturing sector of states over the period 1959-1973. Special emphasis is placed on isolating the effects of a state's urbanization characteristics on productivity growth. Urbanization characteristics considered include the spatial arrangement of cities along with the standard measures of urbanization. The results indicate that while both scale economies and technical change are related to urbanization characteristics the effects tend to be offsetting; no relationship is found between urbanization and overall productivity growth as measured by total factor productivity growth.     

EUROPEAN UNION REGIONAL PRODUCTIVITY DYNAMICS: A “DISTRIBUTIONAL” APPROACH*

ABSTRACT Working within the “distributional approach,” this research offers evidence of past and future polarization in aggregate regional labor productivity in EU‐15. This finding is robust to alternative definitions of the spatial units used and does not appear to be the result of regional structural change. Spatial effects are found but are of rather localized nature. Turning to separate sectoral analyses suggests that past and future polarization in labor productivity across European regions may be associated with regional productivity differences in the services sectors.     

The Pace of Indian Urbanization

In contrast with conventional formulations of urban growth, Tolley proposed a simple, supply-driven model relying upon the intersectoral differential in nonlabor productivity growth as the prime motivator of urbanization in developing countries. In the present paper, we apply Tolley's model to India over the period 1951–1981 and attempt to explain its mixed performance in tracking the pace of urbanization in that country. A modified version, adjusted for inter-regional migration, is then simulated for individual Indian states; the exercise confirms actual urban growth during 1971–81 to have been generally below that predicted by Tolley's model. Tolley's assumptions then are tested through an examination of the relationship between urban growth rates and translog indexes of intertemporal productivity growth. Finally, exploratory analysis of Tolley-model deviations in the various states is used to suggest directions for extending urban growth formulations for India. We conclude with a normative examination of policy implications.     

Tobacco's Tipping Point: The Master Settlement Agreement as a Focusing Event

Focusing events have been widely referenced in policy studies literature as important drivers of major policy change. In multiple streams theory, punctuated equilibrium theory, and the advocacy coalition framework, they play a prominent role in explaining how major changes occur. Nearly all existing research, however, has focused on the very large and catastrophic events that catapult otherwise obscure issues onto the agenda, to the neglect of focusing events that may perform other functions. This article examines one such event: the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) between the tobacco industry and the states signed in 1998. I observe that although the MSA focused substantial attention on the topic of tobacco regulation, produced major policy change, and shifted the policy image of the domain, it was not a typical focusing event. Drawing from the tipping point theories of Sociology and Malcolm Gladwell's The Tipping Point , I expand a theoretical distinction articulated by Baumgartner and Jones between "triggering" events and "consolidating" or "tipping" events to resolve this discrepancy.     

文明起源研究中的“国家”与“社会”

"古代国家"与"早期国家"在内涵上形成某些交集,其实体在"古代"可以并存,但它们是不同的两个概念,不可以混淆起来使用。"古代国家"之"古代",主要是社会史分期上的一个概念。"早期国家"之"早期",则是"国家"本身的一个发展阶段,它讨论的是人们之间一种特殊政治关系存续的时期。"古代国家"包括"早期国家"与"成熟国家",它们只存在于"古代"。"早期国家"却不仅存在于社会史分期上的"古代",而且也出现在这种分期上的"中世纪"与"近代"或"现代"。"酋邦"与"分层社会"也是两个不同的概念,在都是等级制社会这点上,它们有相似之处。但是,酋邦的等级是以血缘、辈分、年齿等为基础来划分的,它与经济关系并无必然联系;分层社会的等级或者说分层则是一种基于经济关系的划分,它以生产资料的占有不平等为基础。     

中国旅游业资本流动与生产率演化——基于DSSA方法的结构效应分析

在中国旅游业转型升级的重要时期,开展全国及31个省份旅游产业结构变动与生产率演化的研究具有显著的理论与现实意义。鉴于结构变动是影响生产率增长的一个重要因素,本文运用DSSA方法对全国及31个省份2000年—2016年旅游业资本生产率增长率进行分解,测度产业结构变动的生产率增长效应。结果发现,不同地区或省份之间表现出较大差异。在年度静态结构效应上,东部地区开放型旅游经济较为发达,各省份总体发展态势较为稳定,伴有阶段性波动;中部地区旅游经济相对闭塞,各省份总体发展的平稳性最差,波动性介于东部地区与西部地区之间;西部地区在大开发背景下旅游经济增长较快,各省份总体发展的平稳性介于东部地区与中部地区之间,波动性最大。在年度动态结构效应上,全国大部分省份在大部分年份都出现“结构负利”,动态结构能力亟须改善。尽管各省份表现出差异化的静态结构能力和动态结构能力,但是我国整体旅游产业结构升级与旅游经济增长的发展态势相耦合。本文的结构效应分析结果可为东部、中部和西部地区及不同省份旅游业转型升级提供理论依据和决策参考。     

TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN MANUFACTURING FURTHER EVIDENCE FROM THE STATES*

In this paper, we first develop a measure of total factor productivity (TFP) growth and summarize a source-of-growth analysis for the manufacturing sector of 48 states. As have others, we find little association between TFP growth differentials and output growth differentials for census regions. At the staterather than the regional level, however, we find a positive association between TFP growth and output growth. We use cross-sectional data to estimate the determinants of the variation in TFP growth. Two results emerge that are important for regional policy and for understanding national productivity trends. First, state investments in education and in transportation infrastructure may affect TFP growth. Second, energy price increases in the early 1970s had no differential effects on productivity growth across states. We also explore the determinants of manufacturing output growth and find that TFP growth, demand growth, wage growth, wage levels, and state corporate income tax rates are significant.     

Compared to What? Changes in Interest Group Resources and the Proposal and Adoption of State Teacher Policy

What is the relationship between changes in interest group resources and the proposal and adoption of state policy? Using a dataset of proposed and enacted teacher policies across five legislative cycles in all 50 states and measures of interest group relative and absolute resource strength, I estimate a series of within-state fixed effects models that gain identification from changes in interest group resources and teacher policy over time. I find that legislatures propose more unfavorable and fewer favorable policies toward teachers' unions in states where teachers' union opposition interest groups are expending more election (but not lobbying) resources over time. Further, I find that more unfavorable and fewer favorable policies are adopted in states where teachers' union opposition groups are growing in election resource strength. Expanding on prior empirical work, this study suggests that interest group resources matter for policy change and highlights the importance of capturing interest group resource dynamics over time.     

安徽南陵出土部分青铜器研究

安徽省南陵县是长江下游地区最早而且规模最大的冶炼中心之一,其古代矿冶遗址可上溯至西周晚期。本研究对南陵出土的不同年代和类别的青铜器样品进行了金相检测及合金成分定量分析。结果表明,只有容器存在铜铅二元合金和铜锡铅三元合金,但是热锻淬火的容器却不含铅,含锡量恰好位于适合该工艺操作并具有良好性能的区间。兵器、工具、车马饰均为铜锡二元合金,说明当时的工匠对于合金成分配比与性能的关系有明确的认识。越式鼎腹部样品具有热锻淬火马氏体组织,同样的金属结构还见于汉代铜锣等乐器、峡江地区战国中晚期青铜剑、江都大桥镇南朝青铜器窖藏出土的多件青铜容器,而镇江地区出土吴国青铜戈则具有铸造淬火组织,工艺稍有差别。这些器物中发现高锡青铜淬火组织不是偶然的,高锡青铜热锻淬火技术至少可以上溯至春秋战国时期,用以改善高锡青铜的机械性能。     

Reform from above: the politics of participation in the oil monarchies

The oil monarchies of the Middle East have usually been portrayed as patriarchal autocracies dominated by traditional tribal families who have come to encompass the modern states, its institutions and economy. The focus of much discussion about these states since the oil boom of the 1970s has been that oil income has provided their tribal elites with an economic boom and an ability to use 'rent' as their primary tool for the pacification of their citizens and for resisting demands for reform. In the light of significant political changes and reforms introduced in the oil monarchies since the late 1990s, it is time to reevaluate our assessment of the oil monarchies' ability to change, to adapt. Empirical data not only supports the view that the oil monarchies are introducing reforms, albeit at a varied speed, but that it is the elites themselves who are emerging as the greatest agents for change.     

MÖSSBAUER SPECTRA OF IRON IN CERAMICS AND THEIR RELATION TO POTTERY COLOURS

The chemical states of iron in a few selected clays and ceramics have been ascertained employing the technique of Mössbauer absorption. The effects upon the iron in firing the clays under different conditions have also been measured. Colour changes are correlated with the various chemical states of iron before and aftefiring.     

IF YOU CANNOT TAKE THE HEAT,GET OUT OF THE CERRADO … RECOVERING THE EQUILIBRIUM AMENITY COST OF NONMARGINAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRAZIL*

ABSTRACT This paper presents an empirical technique for valuing large changes in nonmarketed local attributes (e.g., climate amenities) without data describing prices of locally traded commodities like housing. A model of endogenous sorting is used to identify individuals' indirect utility functions, from which the value of the change in the local attribute is recovered while accounting for equilibrium impacts on markets for labor and locally traded commodities. Annual amenity costs of Brazilian climate change are estimated to be between $1.6 and $8.1 billion for a moderate climate change scenario, depending upon the role of migration costs.     

Ester Boserup's theory of agrarian change: a critical review

As discussions of the positive effect of population growth upon agricutural change have been less common than focus on the negative effects, Ester Boserup's book, "The Conditions of Agricultural Growth," and her subsequent work in which it is argued that population growth is the prime cause of agricultural change is of great importance. The objective of this essay is to review earlier attempts to relate the intensification of agriculture to population growth, to outline Boserup's theory, and to examine the criticisms which have been made of the theory. Boserup maintains that population growth is the cause rather than the result of agricultural change and that the principal change is the intensification of land use. The theory of agricultural development posed by Boserup is more subtle and complex than that of any of her predecessors. She sees population pressure as a major cause of change in land use, agricultural technology, land tenure systems, and settlement form. Boserup argues that population growth is independent of food supply and that population increase is a cause of changes in agriculture. The principal means of increasing agricultural output is intensification. Boserup's work has had a varied response from readers; other economists have been less than enthusiastic. It might seem as if the critics of Boserup's theory have left it in tatters. Her central argument, that intensification reduces labor productivity, remains unproven. There are few who would agree that an increase in the frequency of cropping is the only possible response to population pressure; the extensive margin can be extended, higher yielding crops adopted, and methods that increase yields introduced independently of increases in the frequency of cropping. Emigration or the control of numbers may relieve population pressure. Intensification can also take place without population pressure, under the stimulus of urban growth or the development of trade. It is difficult to accept that population pressure is the only cause or agrarian change or that the increased frequency of cropping is the only response to population pressure, yet the thesis is a fruitful interpretation of agrarian change. Assuming population growth as a change mechanism can lead to important new conclusions regarding the nature of agrarian change in western European history.     

IMPLAN's Induced Effects Identified Through Multiplier Decomposition

An analysis of regional multipliers is developed to reveal a structural flaw in how IMPLAN computes induced effects. This analysis reveals a fixed ratio across sectors between total and Type I employment multipliers, and that IMPLAN's "Type III" income multipliers are inversely related to the average wages in the direct and indirect sectors, and that "Type III" output multipliers are not affected by wages. A multiplier decomposition is developed that separates direct and indirect effects from the induced and further separates the induced impact into relative wage and regional income retention effects. The decomposition is useful in making comparisons among impact models.     

Labour Migration, Neoliberalism and Ethno-politics in the New Europe: The Latvian Case

Abstract:  The accession of the new European Union (EU) member states of Eastern Europe has highlighted ambivalence towards migration within the older member states. That same ambivalence has been less frequently discussed in the new. The former Soviet republic of Latvia serves as a case study of a new member state facing intensified pressure to accept inward migration to meet labour shortages, in part, a consequence of EU accession. Confounding appropriate political and policy responses is the sensitive issue of "ethnic balance", a troubled "legacy" of Latvian history. This has been characterised as comprising a "regime of discrimination" against the Russian-speaking minority. In the context of changes in the global migratory landscape, the potential for a renewed of regime of discrimination is emerging, based on an ethno-politics that has wider European resonance.     

The Effects of Regional Capital Subsidies on Productivity Growth: A Case Study of the Greek Food and Beverage Manufacturing Industry*

Abstract. Capital subsidies form a major instrument of industrial and regional policy for economically developed countries all over the world, including many European Union and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. Research findings have challenged the effectiveness of capital subsidies in assisting productivity growth. This paper treats capital subsidies as a new input and estimates a stochastic production frontier that is not bound by the restrictions imposed by approaches used in previous research works. It is shown that capital subsidies affect total factor productivity growth through technical change and not through scale efficiency, while the disadvantaged location of firms affects technical efficiency.