细胞自动机及在南京城市演化预测中的应用

细胞自动机(Cellular Automata)是一种具有时空计算特征的动力学模型,其最主要的特点是复杂的系统可以由一些很简单的局部规则来产生,特别适合城市等空间复杂系统的时空动态模拟研究。本文利用地理信息系统(GIS)和细胞自动机的有机集成而构筑的CA-Urban模型模拟南京市的土地利用的动态演化过程。对南京三个开发区的发展以及南京能否跨江发展等存在争议的问题作了预测和评估。通过设置不同的转换规则、参数,从一个侧面为我们展示了城市系统的宏观演化的可能模式,为城市规划等提供了辅助决策。最后提出了模型的缺点及其展望。     

基于生态敏感性评价的城市土地利用模式研究——以长春净月经济开发区为例

生态敏感性高的城市地域的土地利用是城市规划、建设、管理过程中比较"棘手"的问题之一,经常因为环境保护与建设发展的矛盾而使之处于两难的境地。本文在总结和思辨一般性城市土地利用模式的基础上,借助GIS技术对长春市净月经济开发区的土地利用现状进行生态敏感性评价。结果显示,因特定的水域和人工林环境导致净月区总体上生态敏感性较高,按照划分的极高、高、中、低、非敏感5种生态敏感区,其中度及以上生态敏感区占全区50%左右。作者进一步以生态敏感性分区为前提,总结提出其土地利用的空间结构模式、类型结构模式和管理模式,并指出其中后二者尚在不断完善过程中。     

Post-socialist Sprawl: A Cross-Country Comparison

This paper presents a land-use change analysis of five Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. We utilize CORINE (Coordination of Information on the Environment) Land-Cover and Urban Audit data for two distinct time periods: 1990–2000 and 2000–2006 aggregated at urban, suburban and non-metropolitan geographies. The literature on post-socialist cities suggests that urbanization rates and patterns in the post-socialist period are quite variable and divergent, both “inter”nationally and “intra”-nationally, and we expect to find both spatial and temporal differences. We compare and contrast urbanization patterns at the national scale, using cities and their functional urban regions as the unit of comparative analysis. Our results show that unlike other eastern European countries, metropolitan areas in the former German Democratic Republic began sprawling (defined as a decline in urban density) in the 1990s. Similar changes only became visible in other CEE countries later during the 2000s. We also demonstrate that larger cities which were better connected to the political elite and more economically integrated with global investment patterns experienced more extensive urban sprawl than their smaller and mid-sized counterparts.     

城市土地利用结构的熵值定律

根据对郑州、广州等城市的土地结构分析,总结出关于城市土地利用的信息熵值规律:大城市用地结构的信息熵一般大于小城市的信息熵,综合性城市的信息熵严格大于专业化城市的信息熵,城市化地区的信息熵必须大于各功能区的信息熵。基于信息熵值规律,提出了关于城市空间形态的分维包容原理:城市化地区土地形态的分形维数必须大于各类型土地空间分布的分形维数。     

Linking Agricultural Policies with Decision-Making: A Spatial Approach

Abstract

The loss of agricultural land and its implications have been of great concern in the last decade. By undertaking a spatial analysis of the appropriation of agricultural land for urban use with an overlay of population and urban data, a focus on the consequences of certain regulations on the dynamics of land-use change is explored. This is achieved by integration of data inventories of agricultural land use for Portugal, and linking this information with CORINE Land Cover data as to assess change in the Algarve. An integrated assessment of agricultural land loss follows, undermined by the consequences of urban sprawl. In this sense, this paper expands on the currently existing decrees which provide support to sustainable development in the region while providing a qualitative assessment of future roles based on ethical values and economic efficiency and offering a feasible framework for policy-makers regarding the trends of urban/agricultural dichotomy in a planning and decision-making context.     

Testing micro-regional variability in the Holocene shaping of high mountain cultural landscapes: a palaeoenvironmental case-study in the eastern Pyrenees

Previous research acknowledges the ancient and complex land-use history of European mountainous areas, which are characterised by a remarkable regional variability in terms of human practices and patterns of occupation during the Holocene. However, the combined palaeoenvironmental and archaeological study of highland human management at a micro-regional scale remains a largely unexplored research field, especially in the Pyrenees. A combined pollen, stomata, non-pollen palynomorphs (NPPs) and macrocharcoal study was carried out at three nearby alpine and subalpine peat basins from a relatively small territory (ca.1700 ha) at the Madriu valley (Andorra, eastern Pyrenees), following a fine spatial-resolution strategy. The purpose was to test the suitability of high altitudinal palaeoecological sequences when reconstructing past small-scale land-use variability. The palaeoecological results of those peat records are compared and further integrated with archaeological local data, and together underline the marked complexity of high mountain land-use system over the Holocene period. Main phases of micro-regional land-use and landscape variability can be distinguished from the middle Neolithic to the early Bronze Age and from the Roman Period to the Modern Era. Conversely, several phases of homogeneous landscape management are distinguishable during the early Neolithic, and from the late Bronze to the late Iron Age. Results drawn from this study show that landscape variability is not necessarily connected to topographic or climatic parameters, and underline the role of social, economical and cultural parameters in the land-use organisation and the landscape shaping of high mountain spaces since Prehistory.     

Planning the Neighbourhood Economy: Land-Use Plans and the Economic Potential of Urban Residential Neighbourhoods in the Netherlands

This article investigates the relationship between zoning by-laws, as put forward in governmental land-use plans and the viability of urban residential neighbourhood economies. The Dutch planning tradition has long been characterized by strict separation of functions and top-down planning. We argue that profound changes in social and economic structures make land-use planning practices less suitable for the current policy formula of “mixed urban milieus”. Although the residential neighbourhood might not be the location of large firms, it definitely attracts small ones, and facilitates starting businesses whose presence (and potential growth) can be beneficial to the city as a whole. We present a typology of spatial patterns of neighbourhood economies based on land-use plans and describe whether these are related to the distinctive economic development of the neighbourhood over the period 1999–2007.     

基于综合可达性的北京城市增长模拟与管控模式优化

社会经济活动的空间重构与交通设施配置息息相关,可达性成为优化城市空间结构,调控城市空间开发的重要手段。在以矢栅一体化的综合可达性测度并构建城市增长模型的基础上,对北京城市增长进行了成功模拟,透视了基于综合可达性导向发展模式的基本特征与主要问题,并提出了基于综合可达性的城市增长调控模式优化方案。研究发现：①城市增长密集发生在建成区周围可达性优越的区域,随着与城市中心的距离增加,城市增长的概率降低,反映了北京单中心的城市发展模式;②受城市规划与交通设施规划失调影响,可达性提升程度越大的区域并不一定带来更高的城市增长开发概率,严重削弱了可达性对城市增长的引导作用;③基于综合可达性的城市增长调控模式的优化方案,要以交通设施规划为基础,并合理耦合空间规划,才能更为有效地引导城市空间良性增长并预防规划失效。基于综合可达性的城市增长模型建立与调控模式优化方案的提出,对于确立与提升交通引导城市增长的基础性地位,优化城市空间结构具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

中国城市群“文—旅—科”产业融合发展水平攀升规律的定量模拟与验证

在城市群的形成发育过程中，伴随着城市群内部文化、旅游、科技产业资源优化再配置和协同集聚效应的共同作用，城市群“文化—旅游—科技”产业融合发展水平表现为随时间序列呈指数式增长的攀升态势。本文通过对城市群“文—旅—科”产业融合发展水平攀升规律的基本原理进行分析，建立相关数理模型得到几何表达式；继而构建城市群“文—旅—科”产业融合发展的评价指标体系，运用引入时间调整系数改进的耦合协调度模型，计算得到中国城市群及所辖城市的产业融合发展水平并进行时空演化分析；最后使用模拟验证的方法对中国城市群“文—旅—科”产业融合发展水平攀升规律进行拟合验证，探究中国城市群的产业融合发展路径。     

从北京,上海,广州等大城市形态转变的模式和过程中看中国的城市转变

新的城市和经济的发展正在改变着中国城市基本的自然形态和结构。在城市发展的过程当中,能折射出国家动态的经济,社会和政策条件的新的模式正逐渐取代了由浓厚的意识形态所形成的带有鉴别性的模式。论文提供了北京,上海和广州等大城市形态转变的模式和过程的分析。重点谈到了土地使用的专业化,交通循环和建筑的高度,规划的过程,城市的更新及房地产市场的私有化等问题。20世纪见证了,中国大城市外形和构造的戏剧性改变。中国城市国际化的趋势日趋明朗化。中国文化的独特性以及中国社会主义制度的独特性,表明了中国城市的将来仍然与众不同。     

中、日城市内部空间结构比较研究

本文从城市土地利用和生活空间结构两个方面,对中、日城市内部空间结构进行了对比,并从职住关系的视角解释了其形成机制。     

基于精明发展的城市扩张与土地利用效益的耦合研究——以济南市主城区为例

精明发展已成为国际化城市发展的主流。在精明发展理论的指导下，以区域中心城市济南为例，选取城市扩张与土地利用效益两个子系统，从空间形态、发展效率、外部影响、用地结构、人口变化、经济规模、公共服务和综合建设八个维度，测度济南市主城区城市扩张与土地利用效益的耦合协调关系。结果表明：①济南市城市扩张阶段性特征明显，扩张模式从单核心向多核心转变；②济南市土地利用效益总体水平较低，但其发展符合“低速-高速-平稳”的变化过程，且近年来呈持续优化趋势；③济南市城市扩张与土地利用效益不符合精明发展要求，城市扩张对土地利用效益的促进作用不足，二者间耦合协调度不高。     

A GENERAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE INTEGRATION OF A LAND-USE MODEL WITH A TRANSPORTATION MODEL COMPONENT

Integrated land-use—transportation models are characterized as models in which the redistributive effects of one subsystem upon the other are explicitly defined and incorporated into the model's structure. At the core of integrated models is a linking procedure whose function is to transform the outputs of one model component into inputs for the other. Despite major efforts made in the past to build operational large scale integrated models, the structural properties of such models remain largely unexplored. This paper describes a general framework for an integrated model consisting of prototype model components. These are an iterative activity allocation model of the Garin-Lowry type, an equilibrium-assignment transportation network model, and a linking procedure. Given the level of analysis, this framework is shown useful for exploring the analytics of integrated models and, in particular, their equilibrium properties. By means of many simulation experiments based on an hypothetical numerical example, the operation of the model is demonstrated with an emphasis on the locational interpretation of the integration procedure. On the basis of the empirical results and considering the model's intrinsic assumptions, the following major findings can be cited. First, the effects of nontravel factors (such as basic employment and zonal attractions) upon activity distribution are stronger than effects caused by changes in the transportation system. The latter effects were found to yield nonlinear and, spatially, nonuniform changes in activity location which also tended to be larger in peripheral regions. Second, implicit in the specification of the integration procedure are behavioral assumptions regarding time-lags in locational adjustments made by activities in reaction to rising cost of travel. The present formulation implies that once located, activities do not revise their locational decisions despite substantial increases in travel costs. At the other extreme, all activities are permitted to readjust their locational preferences after the final interzonal travel costs are derived. The effect upon activity distribution of the latter specification is, of course, larger than that of the former, although less than the effect yielded by changes in nontravel factors. Regarding the equilibrium properties of the integrated system, both the theoretical and empirical analyses show that the entire model will converge into an equilibrium solution and that the corresponding trip patterns are also at equilibrium. These results will hold as long as the operation of the integrated models is completely controlled by the generation functions of the land-use model and the transportation model component only affects the spatial distribution of activities. Finally, the results from the simulation experiments indicate that the computed mean travel cost parameter tends to stabilize around a certain value as the level of demand for travel, within the system, rises. There is evidence that compensating changes in the location and composition of this demand are the main causes of this phenomenon. In light of these findings, it is possible to point to three key problems whose resolution could largely improve the predictive power of integrated models. First, it would be useful to define activity models in which the generation of activities is, among other things, a function of travel conditions. Second, currently formulated integrated models do not contain trip demand functions and, thus, demand for travel by an activity unit is regarded as completely inelastic. Third, different locating activities respond differently—over time and space—to changíng travel conditions, and models should, therefore, reflect explicitly such differences in activity behavior. A recent paper by Los [14], is an important contribution to the analysis of this issue.     

国外土地利用规划发展与借鉴

世界各国在社会制度、土地资源禀赋、经济水平和发展历史等方面都存在着差异,土地利用规划并没有统一的模式。所以学习国外经验,了解国外模式是非常重要的。通过大量文献综述,阐述了联合国粮农组织(FAO)、俄罗斯、美国、德国、英国、日本等国家土地利用规划体系、内容概况,对这些国家土地利用规划编制和实施的新理念、技术、方法的共同特点及发展趋势进行了分析比较和归纳总结。在此基础上,指出国外土地利用规划经验对我国规划借鉴的七个方面,以期为我国新一轮土地利用规划的修编提供积极的借鉴。     

A simulation model of farming systems and land use in Sweden during the early Iron Age, c. 500 b.c. – a.d. 550

In investigating an area with deserted fields and boundaries in the province of Östergotland, Eastern Middle Sweden, pollen analysis has been used as a tool in describing the ecological base of different phases in the development of the cultural landscape. The characteristics of the early Iron Age expansion have thus been proven to be the simultaneous expansion of cattle breeding and arable farming. This indicates an integrated system, with intensely tilled fields, knowledge of manuring and, therefore, need of a vast fence system to gather the cattle and make efficient use of the manure.Assuming a social organization of families with a size of eight to ten individuals, the amount of land required to feed each unit has been calculated. Three hectares of arable land, 30 ha of meadow land and 30 ha of pasture is suggested as a possible combination to support a family. Using a desk computer, units with these proportions of land have been randomly located in an area of 2 × 2 km² taking soil differences into account. Agrarian units can be located several times at random and the resulting land-use patterns studied. The simulated results often very well describe the actual land-use pattern during the early Iron Age as indicated by deserted fields, boundaries and dwelling sites.     

THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF HIERARCHICAL INTER-URBAN SYSTEMS: EQUILIBRIUM AND OPTIMUM*

In this paper, I model a simple hierarchical inter-urban system in which the location of business firms is considered together with the determination of residential land-use patterns. By supposing a spatial externality between the business firms and all the residents of the region, three spatial structures are obtained: monocentricity, multicentricity, and a separate pattern where cities are spatially split with an agricultural land existing between them. It is also shown that the spatial structures of monocentric and multicentric patterns formed by the market principle tend to be more concentrated than the optimum.     

Identifying the Impacts of Land-Use Spatial Patterns on Street-Network Accessibility Using Geospatial Methods

While the land use-street network nexus is well acknowledged, evidence for the one-way impacts of land-use patterns on street accessibility is still inadequate. The measurements of land-use patterns and street accessibility lack systematic knowledge. Their empirical correlations also lack geographical variability, constraining site-specific land-use practices. Therefore, this study overcame the aforementioned limitations by examining the two-level spatial models to formulate accessibility-oriented land plans, using a well-developed Chinese city as an example. Firstly, two landscape metrics—Euclidean Nearest-Neighbor Distance (ENN) and Similarity Index (SIMI)—were used to quantify the intra- and inter-land-use configurations, respectively. Both city-level and local accessibility were measured using spatial design network analysis. Performing both ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models, results identified the statistically significant effects of inter-land-use patterns on two-level street accessibility. An exception was that land-use configurations within residential and industrial regions were irrelevant to street accessibility. We also found GWR was a better-fitting model than OLS when estimating locally-varied accessibility, suggesting hierarchical multiscale land-use planning. Overall, locally heterogeneous evidence in this study can substantialize land use-street network interactions and support the decision-making and implementation of place-specific accessibility-oriented land use.     

基于演化理论的我国城市合作机理研究

全球化和区域竞争引发了广泛的城市合作实践。城市合作是特定地域空间中城市共生演化的动态过程,城市合作的形成与发展,是多种行为主体在多种环境因素和历史因素作用下互动博弈的结果。以新近兴起的演化经济学和演化经济地理学为基础,建构了一个城市合作研究的演化分析框架,探讨了城市合作的本质和内容,分析了我国城市合作模式的类别、演化过程和不同模式的有效性。城市合作的本质在于追求包括分享、匹配和学习三大效应的更高层级的集聚经济,演化理论可以为研究城市群的演化过程,探索适合我国国情和区域发展实际的城市合作模式。     

The inclusion of sustainable drainage systems in flood management in the post‐industrial city: A case study of Glasgow

The management of urban stormwater and flooding is challenging, particularly within older, post‐industrial urban environments where infrastructure, housing and businesses already operate. The urban environment constrains opportunities for the development and integration of new approaches to drainage management, particularly the use of sustainable drainage systems (SuDS). These issues are investigated through a case study of Glasgow. The northeast of the city suffered significant urban flooding in July 2002 following an intense con‐vective summer storm. This event overloaded the urban drainage system, which was heavily integrated and led to the back flow of foul water into streets and homes. This study examines the response to this event and the construction of an integrated drainage management plan for the city, the Glasgow Strategic Drainage Plan (GSDP), which includes greater use of SuDS in tackling the city's capacity problems. Reflecting on the interdisciplinary nature of urban drainage management, this study adopts a social science method, undertaking semi‐structured interviews with key actors involved in producing the GSDP.     

Minority–Majority Relations in the Schelling Model of Residential Dynamics. 住宅动态迁移Schelling模型中的少数‐多数关系

The Schelling model describing segregation between two groups of residential agents, reflects the most abstract, basic view of noneconomic forces motivating residential migrations: be close to people of “your own” kind. The model assumes that residential agents, located in neighborhoods where the fraction of “friends” is less than a predefined threshold value F, try to relocate to neighborhoods where this fraction is F or higher. For groups of equal size, Schelling's residential pattern converges either to complete integration (random pattern) or segregation, depending on F. We investigate Schelling model pattern dynamics as a function of F in addition to two other parameters—the ratio of groups' numbers, and neighborhood size. We demonstrate that the traditional integration–segregation pattern dichotomy should be extended. In the case of groups of different sizes, a wide interval of F‐values exists that entails a third persistent residential pattern, one in which a portion of the majority population segregates while the rest remains integrated with the minority. We also demonstrate that Schelling model dynamics essentially depend on the formalization of urban agents' residential behavior. To obtain realistic results, the agents should be satisficers, and the fraction of the agents relocating irrespective of the neighborhood's state should be nonzero. We discuss the relationship between our results and real‐world residential dynamics.