Requiem for the Fixed-Transition-Probability Migrant

In a recent paper titled “Requiem for the Net Migrant” Andrei Rogers persuasively argues for the use of a multiregional perspective rather than a uniregional one in measuring and projecting the dynamics of internal migration. In particular, he highlights the deficiencies of using net migration rates in population projections, giving illustrations of the very large differences that can occur if constant net migration rates are assumed versus fixed interregional transition probabilities. Net migration rates are conceptually unsound because their denominators are not true “at-risk” populations. Fixed interregional transition probabilities, however, are inconsistent with a sound behavioral representation of migration system dynamics. Whereas such stationary Markov models posit a role for shifting origin region populations, they do not embed the assumptions intrinsic to gravity or opportunity model concepts about the role of changing destination region populations. This paper explores alternative, more behaviorally pleasing interregional models that posit a role for shifting destination populations in altering the attractiveness of migration alternatives. Density-dampened, destination-population-weighted transition probability structures are explored. The importance of modeling intraregional migration separately from nonmovement is stressed.     

Equilibrium and disequilibrium perspectives on regional labor migration

Some alternative models of labor migration in the United States are reviewed, with particular reference to the distinction between equilibrium and disequilibrium models of migration. The authors propose alternative tests to a model developed by Joseph Schacter and Paul G. Althaus "which explicitly recognize the stock-flow interactions between net migration and the distribution of regional population stocks and which make a clean distinction between equilibrium in the temporal and in the market-clearing sense."     

The Geographic Components of Change in a Migration System

A method for deriving a set of geographic components of temporal change in a system of interregional flows is proposed and applied in an analysis of U.S. interstate migration in the early 1980s. Dynamic change in net migration is conceptualized to consist of system-growth, system-mobility, geographic mix, and competitive components. Hypotheses concerning the structural dynamics of migration systems are suggested, as are some implications for migration-modeling techniques.     

The assumption of equilibrium in models of migration

In recent articles Evans (1990) and Harrigan and McGregor (1993) (hereafter HM) scrutinized the equilibrium model of migration presented in a 1989 paper by Schachter and Althaus. This model used standard microeconomics to analyze gross interregional migration flows based on the assumption that gross flows are in approximate equilibrium. HM criticized the model as theoretically untenable, while Evans summoned empirical as well as theoretical objections. HM claimed that equilibrium of gross migration flows could be ruled out on theoretical grounds. They argued that the absence of net migration requires that either all regions have equal populations or that unsustainable regional migration propensities must obtain. In fact some moves are inter- and other are intraregional. It does not follow, however, that the number of interregional migrants will be larger for the more populous region. Alternatively, a country could be divided into a large number of small regions that have equal populations. With uniform propensities to move, each of these analytical regions would experience in equilibrium zero net migration. Hence, the condition that net migration equal zero is entirely consistent with unequal distributions of population across regions. The criticisms of Evans were based both on flawed reasoning and on misinterpretation of the results of a number of econometric studies. His reasoning assumed that the existence of demand shifts as found by Goldfarb and Yezer (1987) and Topel (1986) invalidated the equilibrium model. The equilibrium never really obtains exactly, but economic modeling of migration properly begins with a simple equilibrium model of the system. A careful reading of the papers Evans cited in support of his position showed that in fact they affirmed rather than denied the appropriateness of equilibrium modeling. Zero net migration together with nonzero gross migration are not theoretically incompatible with regional heterogeneity of population, wages, or amenities.     

Reevaluating the Relationship Between In‐, Out‐, and Net Migration for Nonmetropolitan Counties: An Update on Beale's U‐Shaped Curve

The relationship of gross migration to net migration is continuously undergoing reevaluation in the literature. However, one major finding by Beale (1969) that produced the famous u‐shaped curve has received little attention, a surprising situation considering the significant changes that have taken place in rural America since 1969. In this paper I use gross migration data from IRS returns for 1995–1998, and differentiate the rates using a number of classification schemes developed by the USDA and the Census Bureau. The results show that rural America is a diverse place, and that migration rates vary tremendously depending on the geographic, economic, and social characteristics of the county. Furthermore, the relationship between gross and net migration varies much more than previously suggested, especially in negative net migration counties, a finding with implications for migration theory and public policy.     

A SPATIO‐TEMPORAL KERNEL METHOD FOR MAPPING CHANGES IN PREHISTORIC LAND‐USE PATTERNS

Archaeologists are accustomed to considering both the spatial distributions of sites and the temporal distributions of dates as means of analysing the dynamics of prehistoric societies. However, spatial and temporal approaches have thus far remained largely separate, rather than being combined within a single, unified framework. A formal methodology is outlined that combines univariate kernel density estimation based on radiocarbon dates with bivariate kernel density estimation based on spatial site coordinates; the approach allows archaeologists to arrive at reconstructed land‐use distributions through time that not only correct for the problematic issue of site contemporaneity, but also reflect the continuous nature of the archaeological record. The model is implemented using as a data set a series of sites from the Mesolithic of Atlantic Iberia; the results demonstrate that it is capable of providing key insights into changing patterns of land use that are not apparent from either the temporal or the spatial perspective alone.     

Analyzing Policy Networks Using Valued Exponential Random Graph Models: Do Government‐Sponsored Collaborative Groups Enhance Organizational Networks?

This paper examines collaborative management groups from the perspective of policymakers seeking to increase coordination within a policy network. While governments often support collaborative groups as a tool to address perceived network failures such as a lack of coordination, the net impact groups have is unclear. I use valued exponential random graph models (ERGMs) to model relationships of varying strength among a regional network of organizations involved in 57 collaborative groups. This provides a unique opportunity to study the interplay between numerous groups and organizations within a large‐scale network. Valued ERGMs are a recently developed extension of standard ERGMs that model valued instead of binary ties; thus, this paper also makes a methodological contribution to the policy literature. Findings suggest that participation in collaborative groups does motivate coordination and cooperation amongst individual network organizations; however, this effect is strongest for: (i) organizations that are not already members of another group and (ii) organizations that do not have a preexisting tie. These results support a transaction‐cost–based perspective of how government‐sponsored collaborative groups can influence network coordination; further, they also provide an empirical example of the Ecology of Games, in which multiple collaborative institutions have interactive effects on one another within a policy network.     

Analysis of Interregional Labor Migration in Spain Using Gross Flows

In this paper we study the economic determinants of Spanish interregional labor force flows from an aggregate perspective. The study is based on a matching model of the labor market applied to migration, and uses gross rather than net flows as other studies do. Among the main results, we find that unemployment increases out-migration because unemployed people search more actively, but when the unemployment rate is above a certain level this effect is reduced. We also find that the rate of change of relative wages is a significant determinant of migration in Spain.     

行业异质性与空间黏性：企业迁移成效的差异及其解释——以英德市产业转移园为例

企业迁移成效的差异是经济区位理论和区域发展政策关注的重要科学问题。区域产业转移实践往往呈现出多个行业的产业转移到相同区域的特征,以及产业转出地和转入地之间对不同行业的空间黏性存在差异,导致区域产业转移效果存在差异和理论解释的复杂性。基于此,本文从企业迁移的微观视角出发,以珠三角地区转移到粤北地区的产业转移园为例,通过行业投产数据的比较和空间盈利边界的理论演绎,分析区域不同行业产业转移效果的差异及其成因。研究表明,企业迁移成效存在行业异质性的差异,这是由于不同行业企业的对转出地的空间黏性大小不同造成的。空间黏性较小的企业比空间黏性较大的企业有更多的空间盈利。     

GHANA'S COCOA FRONTIER IN TRANSITION: THE ROLE OF MIGRATION AND LIVELIHOOD DIVERSIFICATION

Since the first commercial planting of cocoa in Ghana more than a century ago, the production of cocoa has been a key factor in the redistribution of migrants and has played a pivotal role in the development of both sending and receiving communities. This process has been acknowledged in the literature for decades. However, how migration flows have changed in response to changing livelihoods dynamics of the frontier and how this has impacted on the development of the frontier has only attracted limited attention. Based on a study of immigration to Ghana's current cocoa frontier in the Western Region, this article aims to examine how immigration and frontier dynamics in the Western region are contributing to livelihood transitions and small town development, and how this process is gradually becoming delinked from the production of cocoa. The article focuses on how migration dynamics interlink with livelihood opportunities and strategies. It is argued that migrants to the current frontier can be divided into at least four different types based on their migration, settlement and livelihood practices. Accordingly, to understand how the cocoa frontier changes as well as its continuation beyond the frontier crop, there is a need for a broader understanding of the frontier concept, and how frontier transformation interacts with migration and livelihood dynamics.     

The transformative potential of migration: Polish migrants’ everyday life experiences in Belfast,Northern Ireland

In this article, we analyse the processes of migration from the perspective of agency-structure debate. In particular, we focus on the reflexive and emotional aspects of geographical movement and the complex relations between the settlement context, Belfast, Northern Ireland, and migrating people, with their biographies, gender positioning, resources and agency. The movement across space is biographically significant, as it is often meant to resolve economic, family or personal difficulties. However, the geographical movement in itself is not necessarily empowering. We bring the notion of migration as potentially transformative but only when it is accompanied by structural enablements and agential powers of reflexivity. The reflection on one’s life course and the relations between self and the changing context of action shapes the migration experiences profoundly, which may further lead to shifts in gender positioning. The dynamics of shaping and being shaped is constantly present between migrants and the new context: the place influences everyday practices and, at the same time, the place is influenced by everyday actions and their reflexive elaboration. This article sheds light on these reflexive processes through the lens of gender.     

Transnational families,religious participation and gender dynamics: Filipino,Sao Tomean and Indo-Mozambican immigrant women in Lisbon,Portugal

In addition to being the object of policy and legal initiatives, families of migrant origin have become a focus of debate concerning differences and its limits. Migrants themselves, however, are also reflecting on how to manage family relationships in a changing world in which migration is mostly transnational. This article aims to discuss the influence of religious participation on the reconfiguration of processes of family dynamics promoted by three groups of migrant women who, while settled in Lisbon, maintain transnational ties with their countries of origin and with various diasporic spaces. Guiding research questions are: to what extent does religious participation provide migrant women with connections, networks and other intangible resources? How are these resources mobilised as ‘bonding' and ‘bridging' social capitals? Can such capitals become a conduit for the redefinition of family relations and female self-narratives? Comparative analysis confirms that the three groups discussed not only mobilise religious belonging and ties to generate resources, but also convert these connections into social (and other forms of) capital, thus triggering desired changes that affect the lives of their children and families in both the short and long term. While migration does not alter long-standing patterns provided by their own respective sociocultural frames of belonging, our findings reveal that the three groups of interlocutors use religious participation to explore tactics, social capitals and mobility spaces and, further, to negotiate, without subverting, specific family inequality dynamics.     

Feminist Perspectives on the Internationalization of The State

Abstract: The state is often described in transition: public spaces are rearranged by private companies, national social welfare is being privatized to some extent, and supranational institutions have more influence on national policies. “A view from the kitchen” (Diane Elson) is helpful for understanding the changing dynamics of states and societies because different women are affected by these policies in different and often ambiguous ways: women of the globalized South migrate to the North, creating global care chains, while women in Western industrialized countries are confronted with changing welfare regimes, leaving mainly highly educated women to profit from this situation. This article contributes to feminist debates on economic globalization and state internationalization. Our feminist materialist perspective allows a critical view on dominance and power in “governance”. Thus, the article adds to feminist debates on globalization from the perspective of state transformation and to debates on governance from the perspective of state transformation grounded in gendered social relations.     

Assessing place-based identities in the early Middle Ages: a proposal for post-Roman Iberia

Sociological models of place-based identity can be used to better understand the social dynamics of local communities and how they interact with their surroundings. This paper explores how these theoretical models of belonging to a place, in tandem with communal cognitive maps, can be applied to post-Roman contexts, taking the Iberian Peninsula in the Visigothic period (sixth–eighth centuries) as a preliminary case study. We argue that this approach can give us not only a more complex understanding of community agencies but also allows us to reconsider the social context for past social interactions. Furthermore, it will open a new archaeological perspective for future work on the relations between groups and individuals with their built, social, and natural environments.     

Determinants of Net Migration to Rural Areas,and the Impacts of Migration on Rural Labour Markets and Self-Employment in Rural Sweden

Abstract

Across most of Europe, the countryside seems to show a polarized development in which large districts are depopulating, while certain areas, mainly around big- and mid-sized cities, are increasing in population. The latter development is often described in concepts of “rural gentrification” and “rurbanization”, symbolizing a transformation of rural communities to communities with urban values and lifestyles. Most studies of the effects of these processes have focused on social and cultural consequences, as e.g. the displacements of lower-income households with higher-income residents and of rural culture and values with urban ones. This paper examines the phenomenon from another perspective, namely the effects of the “rurbanization” processes on countryside's labour markets and economic life. This paper aims at analysing the determinants of net migration to rural areas in general and to different types of regions, and the impacts of in-migration on rural labour markets, self-employment and other socio-economic conditions in Sweden for the period of 2003–2005. We find that net migration into rural areas increases with the size of adjacent local and regional centres, whereas net migration decreases with the average commuting distance of workers in the rural areas. When comparing in-migrants to rural areas with rural area stayers, our results indicate that the former has lower incomes, a lower employment ratio and a lower degree of entrepreneurial activities. These differences could—at least partly—be explained by the fact that rural area stayers were on average 6 years older than rural area in-migrants, i.e. the two groups were in different stages of their life cycles.     

Net migration estimation in an extended,multiregional gravity model

A multi-regional framework is developed in order to analyze net migration over time to all 10 Canadian provinces within an integrated system of equations. "An extended gravity model is the basis for the equation specification and the use of constrained econometric estimation techniques allows for the provincial interdependence of the migration decision while at the same time ensuring that an important system-wide requirement is respected." The model is estimated using official Canadian data for the 1960s and 1970s. "The results suggest the predominance of the push factor for interprovincial migration for most provinces, although net migration to the Atlantic provinces is also shown to be subject to pull forces from the rest of the country." The effects of wage rate variables, unemployment, and political disturbances in Quebec on inter-provincial migration are noted.     

No Country for Old People: A Paleodemographic Analysis of Migration Dynamics in Early Andean States

In this paper, we present a paleodemographic interpretation of a complete mortuary population from the site of Rio Muerto (southern Peru) affiliated with the early Andean Tiwanaku state (A.D.500–1000). Although advances in biogeochemical paleomobility studies have revolutionized bioarchaeological approaches to certain aspects of migration, paleodemography continues to offer a valuable complementary perspective on migration and population dynamics. Notably, paleodemography, through reference to Uniformitarian age‐at‐death profiles, is uniquely equipped to identify age‐specific subgroups that are missing from the mortuary population. We argue that the marked absence of adult individuals in the M70B cemetery population is the result of the socially regulated movement of older adults or their remains from the state provinces back to the homeland. We suggest that the particular demographic composition of the Rio Muerto M70 cemetery population, when considered within its cultural context and compared to other available paleodemographic data, reveals potential patterns of adult return migration, and carries important implications for the political and social dynamics of early Andean state society. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

空间思想演变视角下的西方滨海旅游研究

以往滨海旅游研究综述大多限于对所涉研究领域的横向分类,缺乏基于特定学科演进视角下的纵向考察。本文从人文地理学空间思想演变视角出发,重新审视和梳理西方滨海旅游研究的脉络。与空间思想流变过程对应的是,西方滨海旅游研究主题也经历了从"滨海旅游地空间模型与演化"到"滨海旅游空间文化解读与社会建构"再到"滨海旅游空间政治与权力景观"的过程,亦即从关注滨海旅游空间的物质性转变到社会性和政治性。借助人文地理学空间思想演变视角,可以厘清滨海旅游研究视角转换的内在逻辑,并能从空间的生产视角重新思考中国滨海旅游的新一轮发展热潮,为国内滨海旅游研究提供新的思路和方向。     

拉丁美洲与加勒比地区的国际移民——兼论中国移民的生存发展空间

通过对拉美历史上四次国际移民历史和趋向的发展变化、非法移民及其原因、移民侨汇对国民经济的重大影响、移民跨国中小企业的形成与发展等方面的分析,探讨了拉丁美洲与加勒比地区国际移民的历史、现状以及中国移民在这一地区的生存与发展空间。     

Gender and environmental struggles: voices from Adivasi Garo community in Bangladesh

Based on an ethnographic field investigation conducted on the matrilineal–matrilocal Garo community of Bangladesh, this article provides a historical account of local environmental struggles to draw attention to the interconnections between gender, environment and sustainable resource management. From a feminist political ecology perspective, the article argues that interacting with traditional culture, forest ecology and changing processes of centric resource governance, gender remains a salient variable in environmental issues. Local contexts of gender dynamics help configuring local people's mode of participation in environmental struggles as well as being the consequence of those struggles. Findings suggest that Garo women and men have sustained gender specific roles and interests through their struggles to ensure control over forest lands and tree resources. Furthermore, they have developed a class-based relationship with forest ecology which must be acknowledged in forest policies.