国外旅游线路空间模式研究进展

旅游线路空间模式实质上是游客在目的地区域对停留空间和消费空间的理性选择与线性组合,是具有典型空间属性的社会文化地理现象和经济地理现象,涉及了作为旅游景点和旅游目的地的点状地理要素和作为旅游线路的线状地理要素以及旅游目的地体系构成的区域等面状地理要素。从文献综述的角度对不同尺度旅游线路模式的空间模型、目的地类型、游客旅行行为特征、模式选择影响因素以及理论基础进行了总结,在此基础上结合国内研究对旅游线路模式今后的研究方向提出了建议。     

THE ECONOMICS OF AIR TRAVEL GRAVITY MODELS*

Starting with the aggregate demand model of economics, a model of demand for intercity air travel is developed which contains the gravity model as a less general submodel. The more general model is referred to as the alternative opportunities model since it takes account of alternative destinations open to travelers, not just origin and destination as does the gravity model. The demand model approach has the virtue of providing a theoretical basis for understanding and analyzing the gravity model. The gains from treating alternative locations and demand motivation variables are a substantial increase in explanatory power over that yielded by the gravity model, the identification of statistically significant determinants of air travel, and better measurement of the coefficients of population and distance by taking account of these other variables and somewhat better forecasts. A shortcoming of procedures used here is aggregation of air trips with different purposes and thus lack of clear specification of the size of effects of different variables on different types of travel. Overcoming this difficulty must await origin-destination data listed by trip purpose.     

The Impact of Telecommuting on the Activity Spaces of Participants

A spatial analysis of the activity spaces of telecommuters, based on the geocoded travel diary data from the State of California Telecommuting Pilot Project, is performed to analyze the impacts of telecommuting. The study analyzes the spatial location, orientation, and extent of the activity locations within the “activity spaces” of telecommuters and a nontelecommuting control group. To be able to quantitatively compare and contrast the travel patterns and the distribution of trip ends within the activity space, several spatial indicators have been defined. Several hypotheses concerning the selection of activity locations by individuals are presented and the impact of telecommuting on the selection of locations for activity is analyzed. Key findings include: on telecommuting days, 86 percent of telecommuters' activities are performed closer to home than to work, compared to 56 percent on normal commuting days; and destinations on telecommuting days are more evenly distributed in all directions around the home, whereas a majority of destinations on commuting days are oriented toward the work location. To be able to understand the influence of the contributing factors toward the selection of nonwork activity locations, potential causal relationships between the influencing factors and the activity location choice are investigated. Several plausible log-linear model structures for cross-classified data provide a good fit to these relationships. Key results include: interaction effects of activity location with commute distance and with trip purpose are present in all the best-fitting models, confirming the importance of these two variables in the selection of activity location; the interaction of activity location and income is also significant; and day status (telecommuting or not) of the employee influences the trip purpose, which in turn affects location.     

A Generalization of the Utility Theory Approach To the Problem of Spatial Interaction

The derivation of the gravity model from utility theory is reformulated and generalized in order to show (1) how both the number of trips to individual destinations and the total travel budget may be determined simultaneously, and (2) how the effect of both distance and destination quality on trip distribution and total budget may be analyzed. Results are compared with the revealed space preference approach and are found to be superior in dealing theoretically with trip frequency and the effects of spatial context. For empirical applications, however, the revealed preference approach is advantageous.     

A GENERAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE INTEGRATION OF A LAND-USE MODEL WITH A TRANSPORTATION MODEL COMPONENT

Integrated land-use—transportation models are characterized as models in which the redistributive effects of one subsystem upon the other are explicitly defined and incorporated into the model's structure. At the core of integrated models is a linking procedure whose function is to transform the outputs of one model component into inputs for the other. Despite major efforts made in the past to build operational large scale integrated models, the structural properties of such models remain largely unexplored. This paper describes a general framework for an integrated model consisting of prototype model components. These are an iterative activity allocation model of the Garin-Lowry type, an equilibrium-assignment transportation network model, and a linking procedure. Given the level of analysis, this framework is shown useful for exploring the analytics of integrated models and, in particular, their equilibrium properties. By means of many simulation experiments based on an hypothetical numerical example, the operation of the model is demonstrated with an emphasis on the locational interpretation of the integration procedure. On the basis of the empirical results and considering the model's intrinsic assumptions, the following major findings can be cited. First, the effects of nontravel factors (such as basic employment and zonal attractions) upon activity distribution are stronger than effects caused by changes in the transportation system. The latter effects were found to yield nonlinear and, spatially, nonuniform changes in activity location which also tended to be larger in peripheral regions. Second, implicit in the specification of the integration procedure are behavioral assumptions regarding time-lags in locational adjustments made by activities in reaction to rising cost of travel. The present formulation implies that once located, activities do not revise their locational decisions despite substantial increases in travel costs. At the other extreme, all activities are permitted to readjust their locational preferences after the final interzonal travel costs are derived. The effect upon activity distribution of the latter specification is, of course, larger than that of the former, although less than the effect yielded by changes in nontravel factors. Regarding the equilibrium properties of the integrated system, both the theoretical and empirical analyses show that the entire model will converge into an equilibrium solution and that the corresponding trip patterns are also at equilibrium. These results will hold as long as the operation of the integrated models is completely controlled by the generation functions of the land-use model and the transportation model component only affects the spatial distribution of activities. Finally, the results from the simulation experiments indicate that the computed mean travel cost parameter tends to stabilize around a certain value as the level of demand for travel, within the system, rises. There is evidence that compensating changes in the location and composition of this demand are the main causes of this phenomenon. In light of these findings, it is possible to point to three key problems whose resolution could largely improve the predictive power of integrated models. First, it would be useful to define activity models in which the generation of activities is, among other things, a function of travel conditions. Second, currently formulated integrated models do not contain trip demand functions and, thus, demand for travel by an activity unit is regarded as completely inelastic. Third, different locating activities respond differently—over time and space—to changíng travel conditions, and models should, therefore, reflect explicitly such differences in activity behavior. A recent paper by Los [14], is an important contribution to the analysis of this issue.     

A Note on Trip Benefits in Spatial Interaction Models

We extend the well-known transport users' benefits measure (TUB) for the doubly-constrained spatial interaction model derived by Williams (1976). The original formula expresses the TUB as composed by two terms associated with the origin and the destination zones. First, the TUB is associated here with trips instead of zones, providing a natural interpretation as a rule-of-a-half measure of benefit under inelastic demand (for the short-run case). Second, a TUB formula for the long-run case is derived, that is, when the total number of trips, trip origins, and trip destinations change. We then propose updated measures of accessibility for location behavior.     

Simulating changes in tourism demand: a case study of two German regions

Travel behaviour is shaped by the complex interaction of a variety of societal, economic, ecological and political drivers that undergo rapid changes. This poses continually new challenges on destinations which need to adapt to altering conditions. Significant changes of influencing factors might lead to shifts in tourism flows in temporal and/or spatial dimensions. This study investigates how German tourists’ destination choices develop under changing framework conditions. It furthermore rates the impact of influencing factors such as socio-demographic and socio-economic aspects on changes in tourism demand using an agent-based model. The interactions among 15 million tourists and 109 European destinations are simulated under three different scenarios. Destinations included in the model develop in different ways in regard to tourist arrivals until 2030. The results indicate that the number of tourist arrivals will develop divergently in the investigated regions until 2030 and that some market segments will undergo changes in seasonality: the model shows a growth in arrivals for many city destinations, cultural as well as sports and active tourism destinations. It indicates a trend towards equalisation in the segments sun and sea tourism, city and cultural tourism with a shift from summer months to spring and autumn towards 2030. They furthermore imply that demographic change dominates altering tourism demand in the source market and that related changes in travel preferences are the most urgent challenge for destinations.     

Investigating Private Motorised Travel and Vehicle Fleet Efficiency: Using New Data and Methods to Reveal Socio‐Spatial Patterns in Brisbane,Australia

Australian cities have seen continued long‐term growth in private motor vehicle travel that has imposed increasing vehicle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper investigates the spatial patterns of vehicle energy consumption on urban areas through an analysis of vehicle travel and of vehicle fleet efficiency in Brisbane, Australia. This is achieved by combining motor vehicle registration records and Australian government's ‘Green Vehicle Guide’ of vehicle fuel efficiency database. The results of a spatial analysis of the private vehicle trip distances derived from journey to work data and fuel energy consumption associated with the private‐owned vehicles decomposed to local areas show that private vehicle energy use tends to increase with increasing distance from the city centre (e.g. central business district). This analysis demonstrates that differences in vehicle trip distances and lower proportions of high‐efficiency vehicles in the outer suburbs aggravate vehicle energy consumption in those locations. The paper further compares vehicle energy use results for Brisbane against spatial patterns of suburban socio‐economic disadvantage. The paper demonstrates that access to vehicle fleet technology may compound other forms of socio‐economic disadvantage and vulnerability.     

SPACE–TIME MEASURES OF DEMAND FOR SERVICE: BRIDGING LOCATION MODELLING AND ACCESSIBILITY STUDIES THROUGH A TIME‐GEOGRAPHIC FRAMEWORK

Demand for service in location modelling is often evaluated based on the spatial proximity of fixed and static reference locations of demand (e.g. home) to a facility, which ignores person‐specific activity–travel patterns and the temporal changes in demand for service throughout the day. To address these limitations, this study draws upon recent developments in space–time measures of individual accessibility to explore the spatial and temporal structures of demand by considering individuals' space–time constraints and impact of existing urban structures. Based on a time‐geographic framework, eight space–time demand measures were developed and compared with three conventional location‐based demand measures for 12 hospitals through an empirical study conducted in Columbus, Ohio. The results show that geographic proximity between clients' home and facilities may not be an effective indicator for service demand, and conventional demand measures tend to underestimate potential demand for service in most situations. The study concludes that space–time demand measures that take into account people's activity‐travel patterns in space–time would lead to better estimation of demand for service in most cases.     

A Measure of Competitive Access to Destinations for Comparing Across Multiple Study Regions

Accessibility is now a common way to measure the benefits provided by transportation–land use systems. Despite its widespread use, few measurement options allow for the comparison of accessibility across multiple urban systems, and most do not adequately control for market competition between demand-side actors and supply-side facilities in localized markets. In this article, we develop a measure of competitive access to destinations that can be used to accurately compare accessibility between regions. This measure stems from spatial interaction modeling and accounts for competition at both the supply and demand sides of analysis, regional differences in transportation networks and travel behavior, and any imbalance between the size of the population and the number of opportunities. We use this method to compute access to employment for Canada's eight largest cities to comparatively examine inequalities in accessibility, both within and between cities, and by travel mode.     

基于手机数据的西部城市居民出行特征研究——以西宁市为例

基于手机轨迹数据系统的定量分析了西宁市不同群体的出行特征差异,通过定义移动距离、回转半径、出行频次和停留位置个数来定量居民的出行特征,分析不同性别、年龄段、工作日和休息日西宁市居民的出行差异.研究发现:①不同年龄群体出行行为差异显著,其中31-40岁年龄段居民的出行需求最为强烈,大于60岁的老年人出行需求最小;②男性在...     

Demand in the Spatial Economy: II Homo Stochasticus

Probabilistic preferences and choices and their connections to trip making and to distance-related demand are discussed. They are seen to aid aggregation. Risk aversion in retail shopping behavior and entropy maximizing as rational random behavior are examined. Elasticity of substitution is presented in terms of the covariance matrix. A Markovian phrasing and potential theory allow an analogy with deterministic choice: various applications of potential operators are outlined. Changes in utilities can only be modeled stochastically and some mechanisms are detailed. Price changes are random walked in time and space as a diffusion process. A fairly coherent theory of spatial demand emerges     

NETWORK EQUILIBRIUM MODELS OF URBAN LOCATION AND TRAVEL CHOICES: A RETROSPECTIVE SURVEY*

ABSTRACT The origins and development of the network equilibrium problem are traced and interrelated. Two principal formulations are considered the network equilibrium problem with variable travel demand, and the combined model of trip distribution and traffic assignment. The relation of these models to subsequent developments concerning mode choice, residential location, estimation of origin-destination tables from link flows and stochastic route choice are then reviewed.     

Determining Market Areas Captured by Competitive Facilities: A Continuous Equilibrium Modeling Approach

Many existing models concerning locations and market areas of competitive facilities assume that customers patronize a facility based on distance to that facility, or perhaps on a function of distances between the customer and the different facilities available. Customers are generally assumed to be located at certain discrete demand points in a two-dimensional space, or continuously distributed over a one-dimensional line segment. In this paper these assumptions are relaxed by employment of a continuum optimization model to characterize the equilibrium choice behavior of customers for a given set of competitive facilities over a heterogeneous two-dimensional space. Customers are assumed to be scattered continuously over the space and each customer is assumed to choose a facility based on both congested travel time to the facility and on the attributes of the facility. The model is formulated as a calculus of variations problem and its optimality conditions are shown to be equivalent to the spatial customer-choice equilibrium conditions. An efficient numerical method using finite element technique is proposed and illustrated with a numerical example.     

“路学”视角下公路交通对旅游地的影响维度与机制研究

“路学”是关于道路功能、时空演化及其区域影响的理论,为研究公路交通对旅游地影响提供新视角。借鉴“路学”构建“公路建设及其作用-公路对旅游地的影响-公路与旅游地交互响应”结构模型。结果表明：公路交通对旅游地的影响表现在经济、社会、文化和生态等维度,且具有正向影响。公路在增强旅游地通达性、刺激经济发展和改变生态环境的同时,也具有鲜明的社会文化特性,改变着人们的旅游经历与体验方式,引发地方重构和社会重塑。经济和生态维度对交旅响应有着正向影响,社会和文化维度影响不显著,交旅交互响应对公路交通建设影响不显著。进而基于生产、使用、建构和消费构建影响机制,以期为促进交旅协调发展提供新的理论视角和科学依据。     

THE JOINT CHOICE OF AN INDIVIDUAL'S OCCUPATION AND DESTINATION*

ABSTRACT This study examines the relationship between an individual's occupation choice and destination choice. It portrays the relationship as an interaction between the supply of occupational skills by individuals and demand by different labor‐market regions. The unusual merger of a multinomial logit model of occupational choice and the conditional logit model of destination choice in a simultaneous equation framework requires derivation of a unique variance–covariance matrix. Results indicate strong association between supply of (migration) and demand for (industry mix) an individual's occupational skills. These effects are especially strong for destinations experiencing slow economic growth, while relatively unimportant for high‐growth locations.     

RURAL–URBAN SPATIAL INTERACTION IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH: LONG‐DISTANCE MOBILITY CHANGES,DESIRES AND RESTRICTIONS OVER TWO DECADES IN RURAL PHILIPPINES

The spatial interaction between rural and urban areas is intense in the Global South. While research into how this interaction influences livelihood opportunities is extensive, longitudinal identification and analysis of rural people's long‐distance mobility is rudimentary. This is problematic given the possible repercussions of a greater flow of people for transport system management (congestion, emissions, investments, social exclusion, etc.). Based on longitudinal survey data from 1990 to 2008/2009, this article addresses this gap by exploring how the long‐distance mobility behaviour of households and individuals has changed over a period of intensified rural–urban interaction in a rural Philippine area. The article furthermore addresses the individuals' mobility desires and restrictions related to long‐distance travel. The results indicate that both accessibility effects and effects related to information and communication technology (ICT), concentration of activities and opportunities towards major cities, age, labour market, and economic situation. Over time, particularly since improved accessibility conditions have enabled much faster travelling, more people have come to travel more frequently (although a suppressed demand is still present and inequalities are considerable) to more distant destinations, major cities in particular, for mainly social motives. A recent countertrend is evident, partly arising from mobile phones replacing physical movement. The increase in private vehicle ownership has so far been slow, so modal choice is still highly sustainable. Overall, the findings support core ideas derived from the new economic geography, but also notes, with earlier studies in transport geography, that travel time is a prime consideration.     

A Spatial Price Determination Model for Multi‐Market Heterogeneously Distributed Resources: An Application to Forestry Markets in Sweden

The spatial dimension is a key paradigm in price determination, as attested by recent studies in the literature that highlighted the differential in market behavior between spatial and non‐spatial pricing settings. In this paper, we develop a model of spatial pricing for multi‐market heterogeneously distributed resources, with an application to the Swedish forestry sector. The focus of the model is to estimate the impact of spatial interaction on the demand for resources in terms of resource allocation, competition, and pricing. In its core, the pricing mechanism relies on a supply–demand framework. Using disaggregated data at the gridcell level for forest feedstock supply and harvesting costs in Sweden, we construct regional supply curves for each gridcell assuming a maximum transportation distance to delimit the potential market. Demand nodes are exogenously determined and are adjusted using a distance‐decay model to assess demand pressure across locations. We apply the model empirically to assess the impact on forest feedstock prices of a 20 TWh increase in biofuel production.     

MODELING SPATIAL STRUCTURES THROUGH EQUILIBRIUM STATES FOR TRANSITION MATRICES*

ABSTRACT. In this paper we present a model for spatial interaction within a network of towns. This interaction is modeled through equilibrium states for certain Markov chains where, in particular, explicit formulas for these states are given. Our model exploits and intertwines ideas from gravity models, the competing destinations model and the intervening opportunities model. The central idea in the paper is to capture the effect of spatial structure in a framework where interaction is determined by the global network configuration.