ECONOMIC REGION NET MIGRATION PATTERNS IN THE USSR: 1979-89

This article investigates economic region net migration patterns in the USSR during the 1979-89 intercensal period. Net in-migration and net migration rate increases (compared to 1970-79) occurred in both the western and eastern portions of the Northern USSR region, while net out-migration and rate declines occurred throughout the Southern USSR. Net in-migration again occurred to Siberia, especially Tyumen' Oblast, and there was a reduced rate of net out-migration from the Nonchernozem Zone and Central Chernozem Region of European RSFSR.     

Migration and the metropolis: recent research on the causes of migration to southeast England

"The paper focuses on one main issue: the relative importance of housing and labour market forces in explaining the volume and nature of migration to the southeast region [of England]." The author reviews recent literature in an attempt to determine "why people migrated to [and from] the southeast...[and] what the consequences of these in-migration and out-migration streams were for their respective origin and destination regions."     

Poor people on the move: county-to-county migration and the spatial concentration of poverty

Poverty rates in high-poverty and low-poverty rural counties, and, thus, the spatial concentration of poverty, are affected by poverty-specific differences in in-migration and out-migration patterns. These patterns are investigated using 1985–90 county-to-county migration data from the decennial census. Effects on poverty rates of four migration flows (in- and out-migration of poor, in- and out-migration of nonpoor) are quantified, and their impacts on spatial concentration of poverty are assessed. The effect of selected county characteristics on the migration of the poor and nonpoor in nonmetro counties are estimated. The poor are as mobile as the nonpoor, and the migration patterns of both poor and nonpoor generally maintain and reinforce the pre-existing spatial concentration of poverty.     

Urbanization Processes in North Vietnam

The pattern of urbanization of North Vietnam is traced from 1945 through 1960 to 1970. The average contribution of the in-migration component to urban growth was 40 percent from 1945 to 1965, but a slight net out-migration from cities marked the period of American bombings of North Vietnam after 1965. As a result urban population declined from 1.9 million in 1965 to 1.84 million in 1970, while total population of North Vietnam rose from 17.5 to 20 million. Urban growth has been distinguished by rapid rates of growth in large cities, low rates in middle-size cities, and no growth or even decline of population in the small urban places.     

Time-series modeling of gross migration and dynamic equilibrium

Firstly, the high association between in- and out-migration is investigated in a time-series context and modeled according to three categories: 1) job transfer, 2) job search and marriage, and 3) return migration. Under certain coditions it is shown that aggregation of these migrations yields a bivariate time-series model having feedbacks in both directions. Secondly, the recent phenomenon of sharp changes in net migration seems to be discontinuous and, hence, catastrophic modeling [Casetti (1981) may be appropriate. However, this paper considers gross migration between cores (metropolitan areas) and peripheries (rest of the nation) for which a continuous function seems adequate. This is done by introducing a multivariate time-series model. This model is empirically supported, especially in Japan, divided into 32 regions, by t-tests and Durbin-Watson ratios, although it excludes economic variables such as employment growth and wage differentials. This may imply that the recent dispersal from core to peripheral regions could be explained primarily by feedback from return migrants. Finallym, provided future streams of gross migration follow the past trends given by simultaneous equation estimates, in-migration and out-migration would approach a stable state in most regions. Irrespective of random shocks in the future, in- and out-migration would tend to approach a stable equilibrium. According to the estimation of the stable states, the 45 core regions in the US would continue to lose population through net outflows while those in Japan would continue to gain. The present model may thus be valid only for short-term forecasts. By introducing feedback and lag structures, however, it does offer one explanation for the recent population turnaround.     

人口流动对边境地区人口安全的影响及机制分析

本文关注我国边境人口变动和人口流动状况,着重分析了人口流动对边境人口安全的影响机制,并探讨了边境人口流动的影响因素。研究发现,①边境县域人口总体规模稳中略降,人口增速和增量持续减少;②人口净流出已逐步成为边境人口变动主要因素;③边境人口变动与流动影响程度有明显区域差异。外流风险型地区已出现明显的人口负增长和外流,人口安全缺乏数量和质量保障;相对稳定型地区人口保持低速增长,但其人口净流出水平正不断提高,有向外流风险型转变的趋势;相对封闭增长型地区人口增长较快,但流动性较弱。各类边境地区人口流出流入呈现不同特征,并受到经济、教育、城镇化、民族、政策等不同因素影响。     

A simultaneous equations model of migration and economic change in nonmetropolitan areas

A simultaneous equations model of migration and economic growth in nonmetropolitan regions of the United States is estimated using data for 1960-1970. The dependent variables considered include in-migration, out-migration, growth in employment, and growth in income. The findings indicate that there is a definite link between the patterns of economic and demographic change in nonmetropolitan areas but that it differs in important respects from that which has been observed in metropolitan areas.     

The assumption of equilibrium in the analysis of migration and interregional differences: a review of some recent research

"This paper questions the plausibility of the assumption of interregional equilibrium in recent research into migration and the valuation of amenities in the United States. It is shown that it is difficult to develop a satisfactory explanation for continuing net migration which is compatible with the equilibrium assumption, and that recent relevant research generally fails to support the idea that the U.S. economy is in equilibrium. The association of higher rent levels with in-migration is explained as a short-run phenomenon. If the spatial economy is in disequilibrium, then the valuations of amenities assuming equilibrium will be biased, being probably too low in areas of net in-migration and too high in areas of net out-migration."     

Some Demographic Problems in Belorussia's Urban Population Change in 1959–1971

The relative significance of the natural and migrational components of population change are analyzed for urban places of the Belorussian SSR using a graphic analytical technique proposed by J. W. Webb (Economic Geography, 1963, No. 2). A total of 59 out of 204 urban places in Belorussia are found to have a net out-migration, most of them being places of 5,000 population or less, with few employment opportunities. In 26 places, natural increase is inadequate to compensate for the outflow, resulting in a population loss, and three other places combine an excess of deaths over births with net out-migration. All 28 places of 20,000 population or more combine natural increase with net in-migration, with the natural component predominating in six places and the migrational in 22. In Minsk, the republic capital, and the five other oblast centers, the migrational component represents 70 to 75 percent of the population increment.     

1995-2010年中国省际人口迁移态势与空间格局演变——基于社会网络分析的视角

采用第五次人口普查、2005年人口抽样调查和第六次人口普查数据,基于社会网络分析的视角,研究了省级尺度下中国人口迁移态势与空间格局演变特征。结果显示:(1)1995-2010年间,中国人口迁移规模迅速增大,省际间人口迁移规模差异明显;上海、浙江人口迁入率显著上升,河南、安徽人口迁出率显著上升。(2)北京、上海、安徽、四川等13省是我国人口迁移网络的核心节点,人口迁移网络表现出中心性、收敛性和地区非均衡性特点。(3)京津地区、长三角地区、广东是我国主要人口辐合流场,安徽、四川、河南、湖南等中部省份是我国主要人口辐散流场。研究表明,不同地区的人口迁移有显著的空间异质性,各地应根据自身人口迁移趋势及在全国人口迁移网络中角色,科学制定区域人口政策与经济社会发展规划。     

Impact of Characteristics of Origin and Destination Provinces on Migration: 1995–2000

During the second half of the twentieth century, internal migration in Turkey played an important role in the redistribution of the population, the concentration of capital in major cities, and the expansion and restructuring of metropolitan areas. To be able to explain the results of this restructuring process, it is important to investigate the provincial differences in migration determinants. The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of the characteristics of origin and destination provinces and the distances between them on internal migration at the end of the twentieth century in Turkey using global and local forms of regression analysis. Therefore, there are two main parts of the study. The first part includes analyzing the in-migration globally. Second, the spatial distribution of the out-migration with respect to determinants among all the provinces of Turkey is investigated. According to the results, in-migrants are correlated with the characteristics of provinces such as industrial employment, service sector employment and number of university students. Out-migration is investigated for each province according to the aforementioned characteristics of the destination provinces and the distances between them. The results of the study reveal that there are locally varying relationships in out-migration in Turkey.     

Devolution,Constitutional Development,and the Russian North

A prominent American Sovietologist examines a range of issues surrounding the involuntary migration of Russian populations from the non-Russian republics of the former USSR. Among the questions addressed are possible magnitudes of in-migration into Russia (with special attention paid to conditions in one of the major source regions, Central Asia), attitudes in Russia regarding appropriate policy with respect to treatment of co-nationals in the near abroad and whether their return to Russia would have a positive or negative impact, and conditions in areas of Russia that presently are absorbing the greatest numbers of migrants. The assertion that Russian policy should seek aggressively to prevent the out-migration of Russian populations in the near abroad is assessed critically. 1 table, 1 figure, 10 references.     

Urban bound migration and rural investment: the case of Mexico

The authors investigate an agriculturally based policy for improving rural incomes and for retarding the rural-urban migration flow. The production of agricultural goods is characterized by a production function in which output increases with increases in agricultural labor inputs, capital, public infrastructure, land, and technology. Differences among regions in agricultural technology will reflect regional differences in education, the institutionalized form of productive organization, and differences in access to technological information channeled through more technically advanced cities. To pick up the effect of out-migration changes in state agricultural labor supply and upon agricultural output, the state's agricultural out-migration rate is included together with the agricultural labor force. The gross migrant flow between 2 locations is hypothesized to depend upon a set of variables influencing the individual's perception of the economic rate of return to be gained by moving, a set of variables reflecting the individual's propensity to relocate, the labor displacement effects of investments, and the at risk population at 1 location available to migrate. It is also taken into account that individuals differ in their response to information about origin and destination wage differentials and that individuals may or may not perceive a new ecnomic gain from migration but may base the decision on other considerations. Results of a statistical analysis using data from the Mexican census of population for 1960 and 1970 are: 1) size of the rural labor force was negatively associated with agricultural wages, contrary to expectations; 2) small farmers have benefited from the expansion of irrigation in Mexico; and 3) higher urban wages attract migration, and higher growth rate of agricultural income retards rural-urban migration. With respect to the 1950-60 decade both agricultural income and rural out-migration impacts could have been substantial but both the impact on local urban growth and on the rate of in-migration to the primate city would have been slight.     

OLDER-AGE PARENTS IN RURAL CAMBODIA AND MIGRATION OF ADULT CHILDREN

This study examines links between migration status and location of adult children and measures associated with the well-being of older parents. Data come from older adults born between 1940 and 1950 living in a region in northwest Cambodia near the Thai border with good access to Phnom Penh. Analyses are conducted from the perspectives of the older adult and adult children. Results show that high rates of out-migration do not leave their older parents without alternative means of support. Migrant children often remain in contact by telephone. Most adult children remit money to their parents, but the majority of remittances are small. While large remittances are atypical, adult children living in Phnom Penh or across the border in Thailand are more likely to provide substantial amounts. The analysis presents a picture of an area where people are on the move but families still share resources and time with older adults.     

基于村域微尺度的人口流动类型空间分异及作用机理——以云南玉龙县为例

村域微尺度人口流动过程对县级单元就近城镇化发展、小城镇发展和新型农村社区建设等方面影响凸显.以云南玉龙县为研究区域,以行政村为基本空间单元,深入剖析人口流动村域类型空间分异特征,识别人口流动村域类型空间分异的关键影响因素及其作用机制.研究表明:①玉龙县村域人口流动特征呈现明显的空间分异,具体表现在人口流动强度和人口流动...     

Rural out-migration and economic standing in a prairie setting

"This study attempts to trace the determinants of rural out-migration for a typical portion of the Canadian Prairies, namely agricultural Manitoba. In concentrating on the 'push' factors responsible for gross out-migration over the period 1966-71, the study considers aspects of several dimensions: spatial, economic, social, ethnic and demographic. However, in order to explore the ramifications of interaction between migration and these multifaceted factors, a model is construed which dwells not only on the forces responsible for out-migration, per se, but also on those capable of regulating rural economic structure and agricultural welfare."     

Long-term environmental change and geographical patterns of violence in Darfur, 2003–2005

This paper investigates spatial associations between environmental change and violence in Darfur. Long-term variations in the geographical distribution of water and vegetative resources can foster migration from areas with decreasing levels of resource availability to areas with increasing levels. Rising ethnic diversity and resource competition can, in turn, escalate the risk of violence in areas of high in-migration. This paper employs a multimethod approach to investigate this hypothesis. Qualitative evidence is used to demonstrate the plausibility of the argument for the case of Darfur. The quantitative analysis is based on information retrieved from satellite imagery on long-term vegetation change and the spatial distribution of attacks on villages in the early phase of the civil war (2003–2005). The findings indicate that violence has been more likely and intense in areas that experienced increasing availability of water and vegetative resources during the 20 years prior to the civil war.     

Time‐Dependent Functions for Avoidance Behaviors Made in Response to the Circulation of HIV and AIDS

Interventions aimed at preventing HIV transmission include avoidance behaviors like condom use and reduced partner acquisition. In turn., engagement in such activities might also entail changed patterns of travel to evade contact with infected individuals. One method of estimating the effects of these actions on the observed distribution of HIV/AIDS involves the specification of space‐time models that imitate the epidemic process. This paper presents an application of this procedure where prevention is construed as a continuous population response to the evolving distribution of HIV and AIDS. This task entails the construction of models with time‐dependent parameters adapted to predicted prevalence or incidence measures to represent the effects of specific avoidance behaviors. In this respect, a multiregion model is described that serves as a baseline for analyzing the impact of preventative actions on the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Western Europe. A series of adaptation functions are derived within this system for imitating both changed rates of partner acquisition and altered travel behaviors. The results elicit modifications to the behavior of the baseline epidemic that are generated by each of these functions. Then, the conditions supporting space‐time variations in rates of survival between core countries (relatively low) and those in the periphery (relatively high) are investigated. The discussion considers the implications of these results for health policies that promote avoidance behaviors.     

In-migration and diphtheria mortality among children in the Sundsvall region during the epidemics of the 1880s

While many works have examined urban mortality rates in nineteenth-century Europe, much less attention has been placed on disease patterns in the peripheral areas surrounding these population centers. This study demonstrates that during the Swedish diphtheria epidemic of the early 1880s, mortality rates among children living in the industrial parishes on the outskirts of the town of Sundsvall exceeded those found in the town itself. The epidemic was fueled by the mass in-migration of laborers and their families from distant provinces who sought work in the region's sawmills. Thus, in contrast to the common pattern of disease entering through a port city and spreading into the interior, in this case diphtheria followed the paths of migrants through the rural parishes of the Sundsvall region to the sawmills and then finally into the town itself. This spatial pattern was reversed in the late fall when migrants returned home. Conflicts within the medical profession regarding how best to prevent or contain diphtheria, popular suspicion and distrust of local physicians, and the introduction of the disease into a population with no prior contact with it, all helped increase the number of young corpses.     

The Problems of Adjusting to Slow Growth in the Niagara Region of Ontario

During the 1970s it became clear that earlier forecasts of population increase and urban expansion in the Niagara region were too great. There has been a steady decline in the national birth rate since the 1950s and a decline locally in the rate of net in-migration. Moreover, a worsening economic climate, increasing development costs, and greater planning restrictions have led to a decline in the rate of land conversion from rural to urban uses. These changing circumstances afford an opportunity to plan for more compact urban areas and thus protect the area's valuable agricultural land. However, attempts to achieve these ends have been constantly frustrated by a regional and local planning process which has been loath to recognize such a conservationist cause or the need to plan for slower growth. In this report I will review three issues: the changing trends in future urban growth in the Niagara region; the regional plan and the designation of future urban areas; and the problems that have contributed to conflict and delay in approving that plan.