传统平原农区人口非农化对耕地利用方式的影响

传统平原农区是我国重要的粮食产区和人口集聚区,也将是我国未来人口城镇化的快速发展区。本文基于农村劳动力就业转移与农户家庭总收入之间的数量关系,提出农区发展演化三阶段的理论,并选取不同发展阶段的河南省吴庄村和山东省东店村进行验证。结果表明:微观层面的人口非农化特征与农户家庭总收入存在相关性,宏观层面的县域经济发展能力是农户兼业行为特征的重要外因;兼业农户通过土地流转,种植结构调整改变传统耕作方式,优化了农业与非农业收入结构,并推动农区进一步的发展演变。通过分析传统平原农区人口非农化对耕地利用方式的影响机理,对于保障粮食安全、推进该类型区的社会经济转型具有一定的现实意义。     

延安市农民收入可持续增长机制探析

近年来,延安市农民人均纯收入一直低于全国平均水平,城乡居民收入差距也不断扩大。为改变这一局面,延安市政府实施了生态移民工程,进行了农业产业结构调整。这些措施在一定程度上改善了农民的生活水平,但是,制约农民收入增长的根本性障碍仍然存在。只有促进高附加值农业的可持续发展、鼓励农村剩余劳动力的外出就业和使农村非农产业实现较快发展,才能建立起农民收入的可持续增长机制。     

三江平原垦区经济发展差距及其与产业结构的关联分析

作为一种以农业专业化和规模化生产为主要特征的经济地域类型,垦区经济增长和产业结构具有鲜明的区域特色。本文采用基尼系数和灰色关联模型,探讨了三江平原垦区经济发展差距变化特征及其与产业结构的关联性。研究结果表明:①2000年以来垦区经济差距呈现先缩小后增大的趋势,农场间人均农业资源占有量的不同是垦区经济差距产生的重要基础。②垦区经济发展变化与各产业集中度变化密切相关,三次产业基尼系数变化引起的集中效应是导致垦区经济发展差距变化的主要原因。③农垦区经济发展水平与农业发展关系最为密切,多数农场经济发展仍依赖于农业综合生产能力的提高。应积极推进垦区农业现代化进程,培育非农产业集群和新的增长点,以提高垦区整体经济实力。     

国家宏观调控政策及区外市场价格波动在青海的时滞性研究

国家宏观政策和市场物价水平在地方的传导存在一定的时滞期。本研究分析货币政策、投资政策和进出口政策对青海传导的执行时滞以及农畜产品价格、工业产品价格和生活消费品价格波动对青海传导的时滞性特征，以期为相关政府部门决策提供参考。     

Areas of large enterprise and industrial districts in the development of post-war Italy: A preliminary survey

Our aim in this article is to lay some statistical and theoretical foundations for an understanding of Italian post-war economic growth, by devoting special attention to what has happened in the hundred different “Italies” that go to make up the mosaic of this country. We have concentrated our analysis on comparing “areas of large enterprise” with “industrial districts” through a distinction between district provinces (IDPs), large enterprise provinces (LEPs) and other provinces (OPs). We investigate manufacturing industry by means of in depth analyses of trends in employment and value added, as well as through breakdowns of export flows and income and prosperity levels. Since the end of World War II it appears that Italian economic growth has largely been formed by the constant, massive flow of exports of personal and household goods and light mechanically-engineered products, that a sizeable flow of exports is attributable to growth in the industrial districts, and that although the income gap between the different parts of the country has not been eliminated, growth by the industrial districts and the policy of industrialization in Southern Italy have together engineered a major territorial dispersion of both light and heavy industry. However, heavy industry and high-tech large Italian companies have found increasing difficulties and even lost many of the positions they once held. Our survey indicates that a policy for industrial development in Italy must take account of the weakness of the heavy industry sector along with the features and requirements of industrial districts.     

基于干旱脆弱性的农户系统体制转换及其影响机制——以榆中县中连川乡为例

通过问卷调查和半结构式访谈获取数据,基于社会-生态系统多体制视角,对农户系统体制及状态进行辨识,并构建农户对干旱的脆弱性指数对其进行评价;采用多元logistic模型识别农户系统体制转换影响因素,并从客观动因、主观动因和决定动因三方面,探讨农户系统体制转换的影响机制。研究表明:①研究区农户系统体制从传统农业体制,向新型农业体制和非农型体制转换。农户由于自身转化力不同,转换结果存在差异。②自然环境和社会经济发展驱动系统体制发生转换,农户期望(教育支出和家庭责任)决定转换方向,农户转变生计方式的能力(行为认知、劳动力比重和社会网络)决定转换程度,在其作用下,农户体制和状态出现差异并最终导致脆弱性分异。     

Industrial policy in the EU: old dilemmas and new options

Industrial policy is highly controversial. Supporters claim it is necessary to address market failures. Critics argue that the danger of government failure is often higher and that such failure may lead to greater welfare loss. The EU justifies its industrial policy by pointing to the existence of transnational problems and to its unique ability to counter them. The EU has the capacity to coordinate national policies, to reduce redundancies, to control and limit national subsidies to industry. It also has a mandate for managing EU foreign trade and competition policy. There are five major industrial policy arenas. Technology policy has been relatively successful in certain fields like telecommunications or traffic‐control systems. In other fields, such as micro‐electronics and computers, the results have been mixed at best. Regional policy has had a limited developmental impact. On foreign‐trade policy, anti‐dumping measures have largely been a failure, though they have stimulated Japanese direct investment. A division of labour between the EU Commission and national, regional and local governments should be advanced with a view to formulating and implementing industrial policy. The regional and local levels should formulate policies aimed at strengthening specialized factors. The EU should concentrate primarily on fostering and shaping new lines of technological development and managing capacity reduction in declining industries.     

Social-Demographic Aspects of Urbanization in the USSR

A certain measure of agreement is found between rates of urbanization and industrialization, with the agreement far greater with total growth of urban population than with the concentration of urban population in big cities. This finding is thought to be significant support for those who contend that limitations on big-city growth are desirable and will not have an adverse effect on industrial development. Migration from the countryside continues to be the main source of urbanization, although its significance has greatly declined as natural increase of the urban population has risen. Migration in general is thought to be desirable because it helps redistribute the able-bodied population between the agricultural and industrial sectors of the economy and provides a channel for social mobility of rural youth. However, the magnitude and composition of rural-urban migration in some regions is having an adverse effect on the economy and requires more effective regulation.     

TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN MANUFACTURING FURTHER EVIDENCE FROM THE STATES*

In this paper, we first develop a measure of total factor productivity (TFP) growth and summarize a source-of-growth analysis for the manufacturing sector of 48 states. As have others, we find little association between TFP growth differentials and output growth differentials for census regions. At the staterather than the regional level, however, we find a positive association between TFP growth and output growth. We use cross-sectional data to estimate the determinants of the variation in TFP growth. Two results emerge that are important for regional policy and for understanding national productivity trends. First, state investments in education and in transportation infrastructure may affect TFP growth. Second, energy price increases in the early 1970s had no differential effects on productivity growth across states. We also explore the determinants of manufacturing output growth and find that TFP growth, demand growth, wage growth, wage levels, and state corporate income tax rates are significant.     

The Search for National Identity and Japanese Industrial Policy, 1950–1969

Abstract. Economic nationalism reflected in Japanese industrial policy experienced two distinctive stages during 1950–69. It was fragmented in the 1950s as political actors held competing perceptions of national interest and consequently asserted contesting strategies for industrial policy. The tensions between the conservative and the progressive eventually led to a clash in 1960 on the issue of the renewal of the Japan–US security treaty. Economic nationalism began to unify the country in the 1960s as political actors were able to build a consensus on national interest based on economic growth and united around a grand strategy of high growth and liberalisation of trade. During this transition, the perceived external threat to the nation was a major force in generating the momentum for economic nationalism in policy-making, while a fair distribution of economic welfare among social classes through industrial policy was indispensable for economic nationalism to obtain public support.     

珠江三角洲镇域乡镇工业发展及其地方经济影响研究——以顺德市北窑镇为例

本文以珠江三洲为研究区域,以顺德市北窑镇为实例,就乡镇工业发展对一个镇域地方经济产生的影响进行了研究。认为在一些乡镇工业部门的发展过程中,可以作为一个"增长极",通过前后项生产联系有效地带动地方农业和第三产业的增长,从而形成地方的多种经济活动空间集聚体。因此,地方政府在选择其经济增长极时需对其与其它经济部门的前后项生产联系作周密的考察。     

THE URBAN ENTERPRISE ZONE*

ABSTRACT This paper provides an analytical framework of urban enterprise zones in a context of regional development. The direct and indirect impacts of urban enterprise zones on regional economies such as job creation, urban unemployment, agricultural wage and changes in the regional economic structure are analyzed by incorporating the intermediate goods sector. The study suggests that the establishment of urban enterprise zones is a beneficial and effective policy instrument which can be used in promoting urban renewal and regional economic growth.     

Decentralized Industrial Policy in Germany. Case Study: Bavaria

Bavaria has achieved a dynamic change in its economic structure since the end of World War II, having evolved in the last four decades from an agricultural to a well-performing modern and service state. A wide variety of R&D-, SME- and infrastructure-oriented industrial policy measures have significantly contributed to the establishment of new small firms and job creation, the modernization of industrial structure as well as the economic and technology development in this German state. Bavarian industrial policy also stresses the subsidiarity principle and the working-together-through-dialogue principle of various groups including government, firms, trade unions, interest groups, etc. This type of loosely defined industrial policy has functioned remarkably well in the Bavarian-specific framework, in which a few large leading firms of international renown, in combination with the strong SME-basis, have played a key role for the rapid development. This study examines some major characteristics of regional industrial policy measures in Germany, taking Bavaria as a successful case.     

REGIONALIZING “MODE 2”? THE ADOPTION OF CENTRES OF EXCELLENCE IN SWEDISH RESEARCH POLICY

This article contributes to the ongoing debate on the role of university research for innovation and economic growth, a debate highly influenced by concepts such as Mode 2 and regional innovation systems and clusters. A prominent trend in many EU and OECD countries is to direct research funding towards so‐called Centres of Excellence (CoEs) in order to stimulate the industrial output of scientific research. The implementation of the CoE approach is viewed as an attempt to bridge research and innovation policy. By using Sweden as an example and providing an overview and critical discussion concerning Swedish research policy during the period 2001 to 2007 we show that the rhetoric within research policy has changed and become increasingly intertwined with innovation policy. In practice, however, this is not as evident. The study draws on (a) an analysis of policy literature pointing out regulatory and organizational changes concerning the increasing emphasis on linking research to competitive industrial milieus, and (b) a comprehensive database including 110 CoEs, presenting a detailed picture of university‐industry collaboration, cross‐disciplinarity, and prioritized sectors. We fiind that the CoEs account for a relatively small share of government funding, but may however have a strengthening impact on particular research milieus and industries, especially in the life sciences. Additionally, although contemporary policy rhetoric appears to highlight steering funding to geographically‐concentrated milieus, thereby linking leading university research to regional industrial clusters, this has only been manifested in a few cases – notably in the Vinnväxt programme run by Vinnova, the national agency promoting innovation systems.     

Urban bound migration and rural investment: the case of Mexico

The authors investigate an agriculturally based policy for improving rural incomes and for retarding the rural-urban migration flow. The production of agricultural goods is characterized by a production function in which output increases with increases in agricultural labor inputs, capital, public infrastructure, land, and technology. Differences among regions in agricultural technology will reflect regional differences in education, the institutionalized form of productive organization, and differences in access to technological information channeled through more technically advanced cities. To pick up the effect of out-migration changes in state agricultural labor supply and upon agricultural output, the state's agricultural out-migration rate is included together with the agricultural labor force. The gross migrant flow between 2 locations is hypothesized to depend upon a set of variables influencing the individual's perception of the economic rate of return to be gained by moving, a set of variables reflecting the individual's propensity to relocate, the labor displacement effects of investments, and the at risk population at 1 location available to migrate. It is also taken into account that individuals differ in their response to information about origin and destination wage differentials and that individuals may or may not perceive a new ecnomic gain from migration but may base the decision on other considerations. Results of a statistical analysis using data from the Mexican census of population for 1960 and 1970 are: 1) size of the rural labor force was negatively associated with agricultural wages, contrary to expectations; 2) small farmers have benefited from the expansion of irrigation in Mexico; and 3) higher urban wages attract migration, and higher growth rate of agricultural income retards rural-urban migration. With respect to the 1950-60 decade both agricultural income and rural out-migration impacts could have been substantial but both the impact on local urban growth and on the rate of in-migration to the primate city would have been slight.     

Place-based innovation policy for industrial diversification in regions

New industrial innovation policies like smart specialization aim at boosting economic growth by diversification towards more complex and higher value economic activities. This paper proposes a conceptual and analytical framework to support the design and implementation of such policies considering place-specific preconditions, particularly the differentiation of the regional system of innovation and entrepreneurship and the degree of current industrial diversification. The paper expands on the links between these preconditions and the barriers and opportunities for industrial diversification. Consequently, it proposes an archetypical place-based policy framework covering overall policy objectives as well as measures at the level of actors, networks, and the institutional and organizational support structures.     

Barriers and Limitations in the Development of Industrial Innovation in the Region

The growing interest in public policy contributing to the expansion of industrial innovation, has become increasingly significant, resulting from the interrelationship between innovation, competitiveness, and economic growth. This article presents the results of an empirical study in identifying the most important barriers to the development of innovation, as ascribed by industrial firms belonging to the high-tech sector alongside the more traditional industries. The data were collected through field survey of industrial firms, located in the Northern region of Israel. A considerable unexpected similarity was identified in the most important factors that constitute barriers to innovation, between the industrial sectors and the different regions investigated. The most significant limitations are those that relate to the high risk involved with the engagement in innovation. The risks are related, on the one hand, to the lack of financial resources, and on the other hand, to the high cost needed for this engagement, thereby affecting the time needed for return on investment. Additionally, the lack of highly skilled workers was also found to be a significant barrier.     

NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL POLICY AND ECONOMICALLY DISTRESSED COMMUNITIES

Industrial policy refers to deliberate government actions to affect the growth or decline of firms or industries for the sake of aggregate national prosperity and international competitiveness. This paper presents empirical evidence that policies designed to promote these objectives would be targeted differently from those designed to promote development of economically-distressed regions and communities. Facing multiple objectives, it is difficult for the public sector to pursue industrial growth directly as effectively as can private entrepreneurs. However, government aid to economically-distressed locales and dislocated workers and firms may indirectly support national industrial policy goals.     

The Determinants of Public Policy: What Matters and How Much

This article is a research synthesis addressing four questions critical to our understanding of the determinants of public policy. How often and how strongly do hypothetical determinants of policy—public opinion, interest groups, the party balance, and other factors—actually influence policy? Do some hypothetical determinants of policy have more influence than others? Does the way we measure policy affect our ability to explain it? And is there a connection between how strongly particular variables affect policy, and how much effort we devote to studying them? It turns out that variables hypothesized to influence policy more often than not have no effect. When variables do affect policy, researchers very seldom say anything about how much impact they have. Variables that convey the most information to policymakers about what the public wants have a greater impact than other variables, but it is less clear how the measurement of policy affects our findings. Researchers pay much attention to hypothetical determinants of policy unlikely to matter very much, and little attention to those likely to be the most important. Implications for future research are considered.