THE SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN FACTOR-MARKET CONSEQUENCES OF IMMIGRATION TO THE UNITED STATES*

ABSTRACT. This paper applies the production-theory approach to assess the impact on domestic wages and employment of immigration to the United States. Inputs are disaggregated between recent immigrants, non-recent immigrants, native workers, and capital. Census cross-sectional data for 1980 and for 123 metropolitan areas are used. Empirical estimates are reported for alternative functional forms with special attention devoted to required curvature conditions which have frequently been violated in previous work. Elasticity estimates are reported for alternative settings, including for the short run where we view domestic factor prices as given and the long run where we treat them as flexible.     

Conversion by the Numbers: Benefits and Pitfalls of Quantitative Modelling in the Study of Early Christian Growth

Proponents and critics of numerically modelling early Christian growth have missed many complexities of this approach. This study re‐examines quantitative modelling by conducting “thought experiments,” built from initial assumptions to population projections. First, an “apostolic mission” model assumes that Christianity grew via persuasive leaders; it projects a cubic growth curve. Second, a “values reproduction” model ties higher reproduction and conversion to certain Christian values; it projects an exponential curve. Next, a “social reaction” model links growth to interconfessional interactions; it projects a logistic curve. Such formal models reveal numerical parameters of conversion and the impact of various assumptions. Together, they illustrate the variability of early Christian population projections. They also showcase limitations of traditional quantitative modelling, which tends to oversimplify social conditions, to mischaracterise ancient religion, and to inspire teleological reasoning. Newer “network” models can overcome only some of these limitations. Used carefully, however, quantitative methods supplement familiar socio‐cultural approaches.     

A study of parametric versus non-parametric methods for predicting paleohabitat from Southeast Asian Bovid astragali

Studies of the African members of the family Bovidae have demonstrated the feasibility of using linear discriminant analysis to predict paleoenvironment based on measurements from postcranial skeletal elements. The use of discriminant analysis depends upon adherence to certain assumptions about the data set. In certain cases, these assumptions are violated, thus reducing the confidence of the results. The research presented here introduces the use of the non-parametric recursive partitioning method as a test of the linear discriminant method for predicting habitat from a collection of modern Bovid astragali from Southeast Asia. This study also provides a critique of the previous African studies. The results indicate that a combination of the parametric and non-parametric methods provides the highest prediction accuracy for Southeast Asian Bovids, though the independent methods do test favorably; thus providing an additional tool for archaeologists and paleoanthropologists in this region.     

The Pace of Indian Urbanization

In contrast with conventional formulations of urban growth, Tolley proposed a simple, supply-driven model relying upon the intersectoral differential in nonlabor productivity growth as the prime motivator of urbanization in developing countries. In the present paper, we apply Tolley's model to India over the period 1951–1981 and attempt to explain its mixed performance in tracking the pace of urbanization in that country. A modified version, adjusted for inter-regional migration, is then simulated for individual Indian states; the exercise confirms actual urban growth during 1971–81 to have been generally below that predicted by Tolley's model. Tolley's assumptions then are tested through an examination of the relationship between urban growth rates and translog indexes of intertemporal productivity growth. Finally, exploratory analysis of Tolley-model deviations in the various states is used to suggest directions for extending urban growth formulations for India. We conclude with a normative examination of policy implications.     

Estimation of adult skeletal age‐at‐death: statistical assumptions and applications

We examine the statistical assumptions underlying different techniques of estimating the age‐at‐death of a skeleton from one or more age indicators. The preferred method depends on which property of the distribution of the data in the reference sample is preserved in the skeleton to be aged. In cases where the conditional distribution of age given indicator is preserved, we provide ‘look‐up’ tables giving essentially unbiased age estimates and prediction intervals, using a large reference sample and the auricular surface and pubic symphysis age indicators. Where this assumption is violated, but the conditional distribution of indicator given age is preserved, we find that an alternative model which attempts to capture the biological process of development of an individual has some attractive features, which may make it suitable for further study. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Role of vertical winds on the Rayleigh-Taylor mode instabilities of the night-time equatorial ionosphere

In view of the recent observations on the presence of vertical winds in the equatorial ionosphere in the evening and night-time, the role of vertical winds in the Rayleigh-Taylor (R-T) mode instability has been re-examined. The mathematical treatment of Chiu and Straus, earlier developd for a case of horizontal winds, is extended to evaluate the role of vertical winds in causing the R-T mode instability. It is shown that the vertical (downward) winds of small magnitude have a very significant effect on the instability growth rate in the. F-region. A downward wind of l m s⁻¹ can cause the same growth rate as a 200 m s⁻¹ eastward wind at 260 km altitude. Furthermore, a downward wind of 16m s⁻¹ at 300 km can be as effective as that due to the gravitational drift itself. Similarly, an upward wind can inhibit the instability on the bottomside of the F-region. It appears that the polarity of the vertical winds (upward or downward) at the base of the F-layer plays an important role in the growth of the R-T mode plasma instability in the equatorial ionosphere.     

试论在美国的中国公民权益受侵犯及其保护

针对目前在美国的中国公民权益受侵犯案件时常发生的现状,结合对从美国回来的华侨进行的社会调查,从国际法的视角,分析了在美国的中国公民权益受侵犯的主要现象和原因;指出了侵犯在当地的中国公民权益,是对国际法上关于国际人权保护和反种族歧视原则的践踏;并就如何保护在美国的中国公民权益问题提出了自己的看法。     

The Influence of Headland Alignment on the Plan Shape of Modelled Zeta-Form Beaches

The east coast of Australia includes many beaches exhibiting a zeta-form or log spiral curve when viewed in plan. It has already been established that there is a relationship between the orientation of such beaches and their curvature. This paper extends understanding by examining the relationship of the upswell headland and the curvature of model beaches. A wave tank model simulates the variation in beach orientation relative to wave approach direction and examines the response in beach curvature to changes in headland alignment.     

知识密集型服务机构(KIBS)嵌入视角的集群企业成长实证研究框架

通过构建"知识密集型服务机构(KIBS)嵌入-集群网络结构-集群企业成长"的概念模型,本文分别对两阶段模型即"KIBS嵌入-集群网络结构"、"集群网络结构-知识能力-集群企业成长"进行深入理论分析,揭示了KIBS嵌入对集群企业成长的作用机制。     

The service sector,regional specialization,and economic growth in the Victorian economy

During the Victorian period there were substantial regional variations in employment in the service industries. Explanations of economic growth in this period have been dominated by the notion that it was industry-led. If that were so, service growth would be a function of industrial growth. Testing of this thesis by econometric methods suggested that industry provided a poor explanation for variations in services, and that the main explanation was provided by variations in income. This raised other questions, since income per head in the industrial areas was generally much lower than in the less industrialized and service-oriented south of England. There is an abundance of evidence to suggest that this service-oriented regional growth was not derived from industrial development but from international trade and finance together with the consumer spending of a wealthy landed society. There was thus a substantial element of economic and spatial dualism in the Victorian economy. The role of heavy industry in Victorian growth thus needs to be revised considerably downward, and the importance of services and the South East region in particular revised considerably upward. Indeed it is by no means sure that the industrial regions provided the principal stimulus to Victorian growth: the evidence of this study would suggest otherwise.     

Samoa on the World Stage: Petitions and Peoples before the Mandates Commission of the League of Nations

One of the innovative aspects of the mandates system of the League of Nations, the oversight regime applied to the former German and Ottoman territories seized by the Allied Powers in the First World War, was that it included a right of petition. Inhabitants of any territory governed under mandate, or any interested outsider, could petition the League of Nations if they believed that the stipulations laid down in Article 22 of the League Covenant or in particular mandate texts were being violated. This article explores the origins, development, politics and scope of the practice of petitioning under the mandates system, arguing that it was much more significant, extensive and consequential than has previously been recognised. Petitions rarely offered petitioners redress; instead, they made visible the assumptions about racial and civilisational hierarchies, and the realities of power, on which the system was based. Yet petitions were not only revelatory of political relations but also altered those relations in turn, as petitioners used the opportunity of appeal to learn the skills of claim-making, international lobbying and political mobilisation. The article looks closely at one dramatic case—that of the mass movement against New Zealand's administration of the mandated territory Western Samoa in the late 1920s, which involved numerous petitions to the League—to illustrate these points.     

Trends in real wages in Denmark since the Late Middle Ages

This article constructs long-span time series indices on wages in Denmark and explores the growth in living standards in the pre-industrial era. There were several persistent upward and downward trends in real annual earnings from 1500 to 1820, but no clear upward long-term trend. This finding seems hard to reconcile with Maddison's figure for the average annual growth in real GDP per capita in Denmark (0.17%) over the same period. This is the case, even if the growth rate in pre-industrial annual earnings is underestimated by 0.05%–0.06% per annum due to an increased number of working days.     

GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM OF A REGIONAL ECONOMY WITH A FINANCIAL SECTOR–PART II: A SIMPLE BEHAVIORAL MODEL

ABSTRACT. Simple behavioral assumptions are incorporated into an accounting framework that provides linked budget and balance sheets for sectors of a regional economy. A short-run Keynesian-type model is developed where quantities rather than prices adjust, and where regional prices and interest rates are equal to national levels. The analysis highlights the importance of the financial services sector as an active factor in regional growth. Consumer deposit and debt preferences, and limitations imposed on credit extension by the financial services sector can have important effects on the regional economy as evidenced by changes in the export multiplier.     

On the Implications of a Stationary Urban Population For the Size Distribution of Cities

The paper analyzes the limiting case for a modified Yule-Simon model of city growth. The aim of the paper is primarily to reintroduce geographers to the notion of a closed system of cities, i.e., a system of cities where the aggregate population is stationary in size. The Yule-Simon model, while successful in dealing with the observed properties of open systems, is seen to break down for closed systems. Moreover, incorporating Simon's assumptions regarding intercity migration into the model produces implausible results. Also, the traditional approach of employing entropy-maximizing procedures assumes a certain pattern of intercity migration. This pattern, while not inherently implausible, does present features which are questionable. The authors conclude that an adequate theory for closed systems has yet to be developed.     

Equilibrium and Economic Growth: Spatial Econometric Models and Simulations

Neoclassical theory assumes diminishing returns to capital and spatially constant exogenously-determined technological progress, although it is questionable whether these are realistic assumptions for modeling manufacturing productivity growth variations across European Union (E.U.) regions. In contrast, the model developed in this paper assumes increasing returns and spatially varying technical progress, and is linked to endogenous growth theory and particularly to 'new economic geography' theory. Simulations, involving 178 E.U.regions, show that productivity levels and growth rates are higher in all E.U. regions when the financially assisted (Objective 1) regions have faster output growth. This also reduces inequalities in levels of technology. Allowing the core regions to grow faster has a similar effect of raising productivity growth rates across the E.U., although inequality increases. Thus, the simulations are seen as an attempt to develop a type of 'computable geographical equilibrium' model which, as suggested by Fujita, Krugman, and Venables (1999), is the way theoretical economic geography needs to evolve in order to become a predictive discipline.     

Some aspects of Doppler radar measurements of the mean and fluctuating components of the wind field in the upper middle atmosphere

The basic assumptions made when a Doppler radar is used to measure the mean and fluctuating components of the wind field in the middle atmosphere with various beam configurations are examined. Particular reference is made to the measurement of the various components of the Reynolds stress tensor associated with short period internal gravity waves. It is shown that it is not generally possible to measure the upward flux of horizontal momentum with the conventional Doppler radar beam configuration in the upper middle atmosphere and that an optimum beam configuration is that in which beams are directed at +θ,0 and − θ to the zenith in both the zonal and meridional planes. This allows five of the six components of the Reynolds stress tensor (all those except the horizontal transport of momentum) to be obtained directly from the mean square radial velocities. In addition, the mean wind components and, in principle, the horizontal divergence and stretching deformations may be obtained. The power spectrum of the horizontal velocity may also be calculated using only the assumption that the statistics of the motions are horizontally homogeneous.     

A Narrative Analysis of the Political Economy Shaping Policy on Child Undernutrition in India

This article examines two narratives on the subject of child undernutrition in India espoused by competing sides of the policy elite. It argues that undertaking narrative policy analysis in a structured fashion helps to elucidate a clearer sense of the underlying positions within this important area of development discourse. India's high rates of child undernutrition have become a battleground of positions on the country's growth trajectory, revealing of the wider assumptions, ideologies and manifestations of power of the various actors espousing particular positions. Recent debates have brought into focus not only the contestation of various causalities and remedies, but also the politics of measurement, data and their interpretation. The results of this analysis are relevant elsewhere in their illumination of the politically public nature of technocratic debates on nutrition and the way in which this public discourse extends beyond the immediate topic to wider ideological divisions and assumptions on growth, equity and recent history.     

Archaeological sedimentology of overbank silt deposits on the floodplain of the Ohio river near Louisville,Kentucky

The surface of the floodplain of the Ohio River about 20km southwest of Louisville, Kentucky, is a series of linear ridges and swales that are subparallel to the channel of the river, which here is relatively straight and flows southward. Numerous prehistoric occupational sites are located on these ridges. The sediments that underlie the ridges, which were examined in four archaeological excavations as deep as 8 m, are predominantly sandy silt and silty fine to very fine sand and appear to be mainly the product of overbank deposition from suspended load. Abundant cultural material and occupational sites dating as early as 10,000 years BP are found in the sediments at depths as great as 6·5 m. The fine sediments of the floodplain are underlain by sand and gravel.The context of the cultural materials and the stratigraphy and morphology of the deposits indicate that the ridged deposits began as linear riverside sand and gravel bars. These were succeeded upward by fine-grained overbank deposits in which the ridged morphology was maintained because the overbank silt and fine sand were deposited as prograding elongate bars at high water. As the floodplain ridge built upward, the sedimentation rate decreased and the sand content of the sediments diminished, and as the river channel occasionally shifted, the ridged deposits were built in successive subparallel sequences.Two archaeological consequences are implicit in this depositional model of orderly growth of the floodplain. First, available archaeological data from floodplain segments along other parts of the river should confirm the model; and second, the model should make it possible to search the floodplains of the Ohio River for stratified sites of any desired age.     

Estimating the likelihood of fallacious ecological inference: linear ecological regression in the presence of context effects

In situations where the only reliable data source is electoral data at the aggregate level for a geographic unit such as voting precincts, social scientists have sought to use ecological regression techniques to recreate the voting behavior of particular groups without committing the ecological fallacy of the sort warned of by Robinson (1950). Until quite recently, the most common use of ecological regression techniques was for the analysis of historical data, e.g., determining the social groups that supported the Nazis. In the US, however, in a development little known to political geographers, within the past decade, social science expert witnesses have testified in hundreds of cases involving minority voting rights—cases where a central issue has been to ascertain the extent of white/Anglo support for black or Hispanic (or more recently, Asian-American) candidates in elections involving candidates of more than one race/ ethnic background. One issue in several recent voting rights cases has been whether linear regression methods can validly be used to model racial voting patterns, with experts for defendant jurisdictions claiming that the presence of contextual effects may invalidate the assumptions underlying linear models and give rise to an ecological fallacy. For data on voting patterns in small geographic units such as voting precincts, we show that the presence of a plausible type of race-related contextual effect will, in general, lead to a quadratic relationship between minority share of the electorate and the share of the vote received by the minority candidate. However, when either a substantial proportion of the electorate is located in racially homogeneous or near homogeneous precincts (as often occurs given the patterns of residential concentration in US cities), or when the contextual effects are small, we show that the estimates of the key parameters of interest in voting rights litigation, namely the proportions of minority and non-minority voters who voted for the minority candidate(s), will be very well approximated by a bivariate linear model. In such circumstances, fallacies of ecological inference can be avoided with near certainty, despite the fact that the linear model that has been used to fit the data omits potentially important variables and regression diagnostics for it would show heteroskedasticity, while a quadratic regression would provide coefficients that are essentially uninterpretable in terms of the parameter of interest. This result has potentially broader implications for the reliability of ecological inference because it demonstrates that, under plausible assumptions, a simple ecological model can yield accurate results despite theoretical errors in model specification—because those errors prove to be of little or no practical significance.