Transformation of Istanbul from a monocentric to a polycentric city

This paper investigates the spatial transformation of Istanbul from a monocentric to a polycentric city following the growth of the city and the development of its communications systems. The population and employment of peripheral districts have been growing rapidly, while those of the core districts have decreased. In addition, other variables are utilized for the identification of polycentres such as tax revenues from commercial enterprises, weighted average trip length and volume of mail. The results of the study reveal that the old CBD of Istanbul is no longer a dominant employment centre. Instead, a new CBD is emerging at the intersection of the radial and the peripheral highways, and subcentres are developing in some of the first and second ring districts. A major contributing factor to Istanbul's polycentric development has been the transformation of its economy into one that requires large modem office space and facilities for private automobiles—both of which are difficult to provide within the old CBD. In addition, the construction of peripheral highways has contributed to a pattern of polycentric development. Moreover, there is a desperate need for planned development of these subcentres in order to prevent their current haphazard development and to give a character to the peripheral areas of Istanbul.     

城市规模分布模型的应用——以珠江三角洲城市群为例

城市规模分布定量研究是城市规划中的一项基础性研究工作,它对于准确地预测城市人口规模以及合理地确定城镇体系结构具有非常重要的意义。本文应用城市首位律、位序-规模律、基尼模型对珠江三角洲城市群的城市规模分布及其变化特征进行了实证分析,同时指出了应用这些模型过程中应注意的若干问题,包括模型的运用范围、理想值、相关性、城市规模基础指标的选取等等。该研究旨在解决我国城市规模分布定量研究中的一些问题与困扰,以期能为城市规划实践提供一定的借鉴。     

URBAN GROWTH EXTERNALITIES AND NEIGHBORHOOD INCENTIVES: ANOTHER CAUSE OF URBAN SPRAWL?*

ABSTRACT This paper suggests a cause of low density urban development or urban sprawl that has not been given much attention in the literature. There have been a number of arguments put forward for market failures that may account for urban sprawl, including incomplete pricing of infrastructure, environmental externalities, and unpriced congestion. The problem analyzed here is that urban growth creates benefits for an entire urban area, but the costs of growth are borne by individual neighborhoods. An externality problem arises because existing residents perceive the costs associated with the new residents locating in their neighborhoods, but not the full benefits of new entrants which accrue to the city as a whole. The result is that existing residents have an incentive to block new residents to their neighborhoods, resulting in cities that are less dense than is optimal, or too spread out. The paper models several different types of urban growth, and examines the optimal and local choice outcomes under each type. In the first model, population growth is endogenous and the physical limits of the city are fixed. The second model examines the case in which population growth in the region is given, but the city boundary is allowed to vary. We show that in both cases the city will tend to be larger and less dense than is optimal. In each, we examine the sensitivity of the model to the number of neighborhoods and to the size of infrastructure and transportation costs. Finally, we examine optimal subsidies and see how they compare to current policies such as impact fees on new development.     

中国内陆特大城市中心商业区发展布局探讨——以西安城市中心区为例

本文以西安城市中心区作为调查研究对象,选取CBHI和CBII两项量化指标,采用指数法界定CBD的范围;分析了CBD土地利用的基本格局,并通过与沿海城市对比,总结出内陆型特大城市CBD的结构与布局的基本特点;提出进一步建设CBD,促进内陆城市协调、快速发展的对策。     

EMPIRICAL POLYCENTRICITY: THE COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT CENTERS

Our paper empirically demonstrates that employment subcenters in large urban areas have important economic relationships with each other, and not solely with the central business district (CBD). Using data from Houston, Texas, we estimate polycentric density functions and show that “total” gradients differ from gradients using only own‐center coefficients. We model asymmetry by showing density is very different for centers with overlapping areas of influence. We conclude that subcenters have important yet heterogeneous linkages to each other in addition to the CBD, and that therefore the polycentric city is more complex than simply having additional centers mimicking the CBD.     

Informal housing,spatial structure,and city compactness

This paper develops a monocentric city model with a formal and an informal sector in the housing industry. While formal developers build houses renting land from landowners, informal developers use land for free. However, informal developers must incur defensive expenditures to avoid government intervention. In equilibrium, at any distance of the central business district (CBD), informal developers use land until the value of the marginal productivity of land equals the defensive expenditures per unit of land. The model shows the land allocated to produce short informal (tall formal) buildings increases (decreases) with distance to the CBD. Thus, the model introduces a new source of spatial variation of building height. The model also shows that a higher level of informal housing increases the spatial size of a city and reduces the height of its buildings.     

HOUSING CONSUMPTION DECLINES WITH INCOME IN THE OPEN‐CITY MODEL: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

This paper demonstrates that the standard urban model (SUM) has important, previously unknown, and rather counterintuitive predictions about the determinants of housing consumption in cities. For example, the SUM predicts that, as higher wages in the central business district prompt city growth, the housing space per household falls, that is, rising income is associated with falling housing consumption. Empirical testing using a specially constructed panel data set of U.S. cities, confirms this prediction. When city size, income, and housing price rise, housing space per household falls.     

War and city size: The asymmetric effects of the Spanish Civil War

Populations are affected by shocks of different kinds, and wars, a priori, may be among the most prominent. This article studies the effect of the Spanish Civil War (1936–1939) shock on the distribution of population, especially on cities. One of the main contributions of this study is that it underlines the importance of distinguishing between winning and losing sides, an aspect which until now has been largely overlooked. While previous research on war shocks has also tended to be concerned with inter-state wars, this paper concentrates on a civil war. We take advantage of a new, long-term, annual data set. Our results show that, overall, the Spanish Civil War did not have a significant effect on city growth. However, we also find a significant and negative effect in the growth of cities that aligned themselves with the losing side. These results are robust to heterogeneity in the effect of the war shock, measured as war severity and duration. Although short lived, the temporary effect on growth results in a permanent effect on the size of cities on the losing side.     

Logistic Population Growth in the World's Largest Cities

This article demonstrates that recent population growth in the world's largest cities has conformed to the general parameters of the logistic process. Using data recently provided by the United Nations, logistic population growth for 485 million-person cities is analyzed at 5-year intervals during 1950–2010, with the UN projections for 2015 adopted as upper limits. A series of ordinary least-squares regression models of increasing complexity are estimated on the pooled data. In one class of models, the logarithms of population proportions are specified to be linear in time, which is the standard approach, but in a second class of models those proportions are specified as being quadratic. The most complex models control logistic growth estimates for (i) city-specific effects (e.g., initial population), (ii) nation-specific effects (e.g., economic development, age distribution of population), and (iii) global coordinates (for unobserved effects). Moreover, the results are segregated according to each city's membership in four different growth clubs, which was an important finding of previous research.     

HOW DO DIFFERENCES IN PROPERTY TAXES WITHIN CITIES AFFECT URBAN SPRAWL?*

ABSTRACT We develop a duocentric‐city model and show that the ratio between the property tax in the suburbs and in the center has an ambiguous impact on the size of the city. We test this model by using a dataset of effective property tax rates which we developed using GIS techniques for central cities and suburbs in 445 urbanized areas. Results from the empirical analyses suggest that a lower property tax rate in the suburbs as compared to the central city is associated with more expansive urban growth and a greater level of decentralization of population and employment.     

THE OPTIMAL PROVISION OF LOCAL PUBLIC GOODS IN A METROPOLITAN AREA WITH FLEXIBLE JURISDICTIONAL BOUNDARIES*

ABSTRACT In this paper, we analyze the optimal structure of a monocentric city that has multiple jurisdictions. The cost of providing a public good depends on both the area of the jurisdiction and the quality of the service, both of which are endogenous variables. We show that the optimal quality of the public good decreases as distance from the central business district (CBD) increases if the public good and the housing lot are substitutes, and may increase if they are complements. The optimal population density always decreases as distance from the CBD increases.     

Residential Mobility Patterns and Population Redistribution within the City

A residential change model is derived that allocates migrants to housing vacancies using a Luce-type choice process. The residential change model is then used as the basis for a small area forecasting model designed to predict changes in the size and composition of the population residing in designated areas of the city.     

Population,light, and the size distribution of cities

We provide new insights on the city size distribution of countries around the world. Using more than 10,000 cities delineated via geospatial data and a globally consistent city identification scheme, we investigate distributional shapes in all countries. In terms of population, we find that Zipf's law holds for many, but not all, countries. Contrasting the distribution of population with the distribution of economic activity, measured by nighttime lights, across cities we shed light on the globally variant magnitude of agglomeration economies. Deviations from Zipf's law are to a large extent driven by an undue concentration in the largest cities. They benefit from agglomeration effects which seem to work through area rather than through density. Examining the cross‐country heterogeneity in the city size distribution, our model selection approach suggests that historical factors play an important role, in line with the time of development hypothesis.     

中国城市群空间结构演化的影响因素分析——基于铁路客运的功能联系视角

以中国13个城市群为研究对象,采用铁路客运班次构造多中心指数来表征基于功能联系的城市群空间结构,在分析城市群空间结构演变基础上重点分析其影响因素。研究发现,基于功能联系视角的城市群空间结构总体呈单中心化趋势,但地区差异化明显,珠三角、山东半岛和闽东南城市群已表现出多中心化特征;城市群空间结构的多中心程度随经济发展水平的提高表现为先单中心后多中心的演变过程;城市群规模的增大和城市间联系加强促进了城市群向多中心方向演化;而面积小、三产比重高的城市群更有利于形成单中心的结构;政府干预作用对城市群空间结构影响并不显著。鉴于不同城市群空间结构演化趋势不同,未来政策取向应该遵从各个城市群自身规律。     

Specialized industrial cities in the United States 1860–1930

There is a general view among geographers, historians and economists that a high level of industrial specialization is likely to inhibit the growth of a city. The arguments in support of this position emphasize the importance of diversity in the generation of new work. This position is more reasonable for a large geographic region than for an individual city in a regional system. Empirical data on the growth of American cities in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries fail to support the proposition that specialization retards population growth. Specialized cities of a given region and age grew at about the same rate as their regional contemporaries. These data are consistent with the notion that flows of capital, entrepreneurship and labor among cities in a regional system render specialization of little importance to long run population growth.     

Job polarization in the new economy in Danish cities: location,size, and the role of the public sector

ABSTRACT

In this paper we examine the geographic patterns of employment growth and employment polarization in small and medium-sized cities (SMCs) in Denmark during the rise of the new economy. The geography of employment polarization in Danish cities is examined using register-based employment data on occupations and wages divided into the public and private sectors in the period 1993–2006; it therefore covers a long period of transformation and growth in the Danish economy. We conclude that employment growth is characterized by employment polarization combined with growth in low- and high-wage employment and a decline in medium-wage employment. However, these patterns of polarization differ across the public and private sectors, as well as by geography. While local labour market (LLM) size, city position and city specialization influence the geography of private-sector employment growth and polarization, municipal population and composition influence the geography of public-sector growth patterns across wage levels. Finally, public and private employment are positively associated within SMCs, predominantly driven by the positive association between public employment and private-sector low-wage employment. However, public employment is not associated with an increase in private low-wage employment in more remote areas.     

Economic growth and restructuring in Canada's heartland and hinterland: From shift‐share to multifactor partitioning

The geography of the Canadian economy has long been dominated by heartland‐hinterland contrasts, with manufacturing identified as the dominant function of most heartland cities in analyses of the 1961 and 1971 census data. However, the proportion of employment in manufacturing has been declining in the heartland provinces of Ontario and Quebec over the past fifty years and some geographers argue that the heartland‐hinterland dimension of the regional economy is being overridden by city‐regions that are integrated into global networks of production and trade. The heartland‐hinterland trends are examined using multifactor partitioning (MFP), an advanced shift‐share methodology, for the period of 2001–2006. This is the first intercensal period in which Canadian business has faced the full impact of the removal of North American tariff protection and the increased globalization of the Canadian economy. The data covers employment by eighteen industry sectors for the seventy‐three economic regions defined by Statistics Canada. MFP measures the region and industry‐mix effects, which are interpreted as in the traditional shift‐share model (though they are derived more accurately) and, in addition, an interaction effect. The results demonstrate that the broad heartland‐hinterland differences in the distribution of population and employment growth are increasing not decreasing and that the hinterland is in fact falling further behind the heartland in employment growth. However the Calgary‐Edmonton corridor and the Lower Mainland of British Columbia are emerging as a western heartland. The population size of cities does affect their rates of employment growth, but so too does their location: the growth of heartland cities is outpacing those in the hinterland. The Appendix provides the equations for two‐variable multifactor partitioning.     

Metropolitan Housing Subsystems: A Comparative Review

Population, household, and housing data of twelve cities in industrialized countries are compared with respect to different rates of growth or decline in the inner and outer parts of the urban area. The study shows that in nearly all metropolitan areas the core declines in terms of population, but less in terms of households, and is stable or grows in terms of dwellings. This phenomenon can be characterized as a process of “spatial substitution” from core to periphery which is fast in terms of population, but slow in terms of dwellings because of the inherent inertia of the physical stock of the city. Following Batten (1985), a logistic substitution model is used to compare the speed and duration of spatial substitution in the urban areas studied. It is found that the process is similar in most urban areas, but that the cities have reached different points along its course. The conclusion is that the residential deconcentration observed in most urban areas in industrial countries is mainly a consequence of overall population growth or decline, decreasing household size, increasing per capita consumption of floor space, and lack of land in the core.     

An Approach to the Mapping of Changes in the Settling Process

A variety of mapping techniques are used to establish regional differences in the settling process in Irkutsk Oblast and to measure the process in general terms. The most dynamic area, with urban and rural population growth, is the Middle Angara valley, where industrialization has been combined with the development of rural nonfarm places based on resource development and construction. Both urban and rural decline is typical of old mining districts, such as the coal district of Cheremkhovo and the gold area of Bodaybo. In most of Irkutsk Oblast, urban growth has been associated with rural decline. An important factor in the rural settling process has been a reduction of the number of places and an increase of the mean size of places, with remarkable stability in the 200–300 population class of rural places. Analysis of the settling process yields a map that distinguishes population growth, decline or stability in combination with a predominance of particular population size classes among rural places. A previous paper by the author on the mapping of the settling process appeared in Soviet Geography, December 1969.     

Spatial Point Processes Applied to the Distribution of River Junctions

The notion of randomness has been extensively applied to topological (nondimensional) properties of drainage networks. The spatial (dimensional) organization of five fluvial hierarchies is examined herein through the application of quadrat analysis to random and clustered spatial probability models. The Poisson, Polya-Aeppli, and negative binomial models are compared with point-pattern distributions of river junction location for three basins in Indiana and two fossil systems on an erosion surface in semiarid Australia. The negative binomial model best fits all five networks, suggesting that the branching behavior of fluvial systems follows the mathematical precepts leading to clusteredness of junctions. The degree to which the Polya-Aeppli model fits the data suggests the imposition of a temporally limited set of environmental conditions optimally suited for network growth. Only for the two fossil systems does the Poisson model agree. It is speculated that the effect of prolonged subaerial erosion may be to shift a clustered distribution towards the random state as the surface approaches a pediplained state.