On the Use and Limitations of Trend Surface Models

A lthough the technique of trend surface mapping has been developed in the main by geologists and geophysicists, its use has now diffused into a number of other fields including regional science, botany, meteorology, and geography. It would be wrong to be unduly critical of the pioneer applications of any technique, even where errors have been made, for there are few guidelines to help such explorers. On the other hand it is felt that trend surface methods are sufficiently well estab-lishd in geography for there to be a need for a more critical appraisal of the method, especially in view of some careless or even erroneous applications that have been made recently by geographers. This paper will highlight what are considered to be some of the more important limitations of trend surface models, and will point to one or two specifically geographical problems.     

Shared Resources and Competitive Advantage in Clustered Firms: The Missing Link

This study examines the mechanism by which shared resources act on clustered firms' strategic resources to impact firm performance. Results indicate that five different kinds of cluster-specific shared resources have significant and positive effects on strategic resources to various degrees. Results also show that four elements of strategic resources have significant and positive effects on competitive advantage of firms. The framework developed in this study thus suggests that internal strategic resources and capabilities of firms mediate the relationship between shared resources and competitive advantage of firms in clusters.     

日本年鉴教科书化现象探析

二十世纪七八十年代日本出版市场上出现大规模的"年鉴教科书化"现象,主流出版商出版了一批既能辅导中小学生学习,又能介绍日本历史文化等地情的教科书年鉴.这类年鉴兼具了教辅的学习性、大众读物的科普性以及年鉴的时效性和检索性等,在日本出版市场风靡一时,产生了较大的经济效益和社会影响.但是随着日本教育政策的变化,教辅市场需求转变...     

Distance Distributions and Trip Behavior in Defined Regions

This paper discusses applications of the statistical distribution of distances between random pairs of points in bounded regions. The existing literature on convex figures is first described, and applications of the analytically tractable distributions to point pattern analysis are given. New statistics are then introduced with applications in shape analysis and trip distribution studies. Finally a brief discussion is made of directional bias, and of alternative sampling rules and distance metrics.     

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Surface Changes by Tessellations

This paper develops a method for analyzing the change of surface, a continuous function defined over the two‐dimensional space. The surface change is represented by a scalar field in a spatiotemporal region. The region is divided into subregions called hills and waves which are based on the local form of the surface. They are both three‐dimensional tessellations of the spatiotemporal region, and provide an overview of the surface change. To summarize the tessellations, four operations are proposed: section, projection, merging, and graph representation. They extract useful information from tessellations to describe the structure of surface change. To test the validity of the method, the change of a retail cluster in Shinjuku and Shibuya area in Tokyo is analyzed. The empirical study yields some interesting findings that help us understand changes in the spatial structure of retailing.     

Empirical Zoning Distributions for Small Area Data

It is well established that using data summaries for a set of geographic areas or zones to estimate the parameters of a statistical model, commonly called ecological inference, frequently leads to the modifiable area unit problem (MAUP). In this article, the zoning effect of the MAUP is investigated for a range of scales. A zoning distribution is defined, and then used to characterize the zoning effect for parameter estimates from ecological analyses. Zone‐independent parameter estimates are obtained using the mean of the zoning distribution, and assessed using the variance of the zoning distribution. Zoning distributions are illustrated for parameter estimates from two ecological regression models at multiple scales using Australian National Health Survey data. For both a continuous response variable and a binary response variable, the empirical zoning distributions are unimodal, relatively symmetrical with appreciable variation, even when based on a large number of zones. The “ecological mean,” or expected value of the empirical zoning distribution at each scale, displays systematic variation with scale and the zoning distribution variance also depends on scale. The results demonstrate that the zoning effect should not be ignored, and the sensitivity of ecological analysis results to the analysis zones should be assessed.     

Analysis of the role of fluids in causing fractures in the Spraberry Trend,Midland Basin

The Spraberry Formation in west‐central Texas is a highly fractured formation with both extension and shear fractures. At least two sets of natural fractures exist in two reservoir intervals. We have considered two possible origins for the fracturing: (i) high fluid pressure plus tectonic stress and (ii) tectonic stress at near‐hydrostatic fluid pressure. Reconstruction of geologic, thermal and hydrodynamic histories suggests that high fluid pressures probably did not occur during the basin’s history. To explore the second hypothesis, we developed and applied a calibrated, discrete‐element model of Spraberry strata to investigate whether weak Laramide compressional forces could cause fractures in the absence of high fluid pressures. Simulation results suggest that a mild compressional episode of geologically short duration may indeed have induced conjugate shear fractures.     

Distributions of the irregularities which produce ionospheric scintillations

The distribution of nighttime irregularities which produce satellite scintillation has been examined for a midlatitude location using a large array of receivers. The irregularities are aligned along the earth's magnetic field and appear to extend from top to bottom of the F-region, being preferentially observed near the F-region ionization peak where they produce the strongest scintillations. A new method of mapping the horizontal distribution shows patches of various shapes and sizes but with no systematic structure.     

基于本底趋势线与小波函数的中国旅游成长及多周期分析

本文依据本底趋势线理论和小渡分析理论,对近20年来中国入境及国内旅游客流量成长过程进行了滤波分析,提取了旅游成长过程中的趋势项和不同时间尺度的周期项。结果发现：（1）近20多年来我国入境和国内旅游的成长,在年际尺度上均可分解为趋势项、周期项和事件冲击项3个部分;（2）入境旅游和国内旅游客流量的增长趋势存在一定的差异,入境旅游长期趋势为直线增长,国内旅游长期趋势为指数增长;（3）入境旅游存在2个时间尺度的客流量波动周期,较长的周期为20年,较短的周期为6年,而国内旅游只存在一个10年左右的周期。最后,本文对本底趋势线理论与小波分析方法在旅游成长及波动周期分析上的差异进行了比较。     

旅游资源开发的时代演进及发展趋势浅析

旅游资源开发是旅游业发展的基础。在漫长的历史发展中,其经历了自发时代、自觉时代、生态时代,正向信息时代迈进。本在分析旅游资源开发历史演进的基础上,提出“竞争与合作相统一”的开发理念,“科学化 网络化”的开发方式,“多元目标协调”的开发目标,探讨了其在新世纪里的发展趋势。     

Core Use-Life Distributions in Lithic Assemblages as a Means for Reconstructing Behavioral Patterns

Artifacts with varying use-lives have different discard rates and hence are represented unequally among archaeological assemblages. As such, the ability to gauge the use-lives of artifacts is important for understanding the formation of archaeological assemblage variability. In lithic artifacts, use-life can be expressed as the extraction of utility, or work potential, from existing stone volume. Using experimental data and generalized linear modeling, this study develops models of artifact use-life on cores in the form of reduction intensity. We then apply these models to two archaeological case studies to (a) reconstruct the reduction intensities of archaeological cores and (b) investigate the survivorship curves of these archaeological cores across the reduction continuum using the Weibull function. Results indicate variation in core reduction and maintenance with respect to raw material properties and place use history and implicate evolutionary differences between Early Stone Age hominins and Holocene modern humans.     

Never Judge A Gold Object by Its Surface Analysis: A Study of Surface Phenomena in a Selection of Gold Objects From the Staffordshire Hoard

With the introduction of commercially available handheld XRF analysers, there is a growing problem that the results, simply taken at face value, are regarded as representative of the bulk gold alloys of the objects analysed in museums and used for treasure analysis. It is well known that surface analysis is problematic, and the aim of this study was to test whether non‐destructive surface analysis could be useful in grouping the very large numbers of fragmentary pieces in the Anglo‐Saxon Staffordshire Hoard. Surface and subsurface analyses of 16 objects from the Hoard were carried out by X‐ray fluorescence (XRF) and scanning electron microscopy with energy‐dispersive X‐ray analysis (SEM–EDX). The results indicate that there are significant but inconsistent levels of enrichment of the gold at the surface of many of these objects, due to the loss of both copper and silver. The significant loss of silver (up to 50% relative in some cases) suggests that some form of deliberately induced depletion gilding was carried out during manufacture to remove both silver and copper from the surface. In three cases, an increase in silver at the surface compared to the core metal was detected: this might tentatively be explained by redeposition from contact with silver objects during burial. These results have clear implications for the reliability and interpretation of surface analysis data of gold alloys from this period.     

次贷危机中的日本金融经济动向

本文通过分析日本金融市场短期利率、长期利率、股票指数、日元汇率指标的变动,来评估次贷危机对日本金融市场和金融体系产生的影响。文章认为次贷危机使日本丧失了一个难得的金融政策正常化以及走向长期经济增长的机会,日本金融指标变动与美欧的同步化使得日本难以独善其身,而高企的日元汇率随时有反转的可能。