VARIABLE RETURNS TO SCALE AND REGIONAL RESOURCE ALLOCATION UNDER UNCERTAINTY*

ABSTRACT. This paper investigates the resource allocational implications of intra-industrial externalities, i.e., variable returns to scale (VRS), in a two-region general equilibrium model of production under uncertainty. It is shown that most standard results concerning changes in the goods price ratio with constant returns to scale (CRS) under uncertainty generalize to VRS. In contrast, standard results concerning changes in factor endowments extend from CRS to decreasing returns to scale, but not to all permissible levels of increasing returns to scale. Thus, such theorems as factor price equalization and Rybczynski do not generalize to all real-world levels of VRS.     

STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING MODELS OF STOCHASTIC NETWORK EQUILIBRIUM*

ABSTRACT. Boyce et al. (1981, 1983) have proposed and implementd the use of observed entropy levels to estimate the travel-cost coefficient in mathematical programming models of network equilibrium which involve logit route-choice probabilities. This so-called “dispersion-constrained” model is shown to give severely biased and statistically inefficient underestimates. A natural counterpart, the entropy-maximizing model, is proposed here and overestimates the travel-cost coefficient with much lower bias and much higher statistical efficiency. Even though the two models are mathematically homeomorphic in some respects, they have vastly different statistical properties. It follows that the use of observed entropy levels is undesirable and should be avoided, since maximizing entropy provides an unambiguously superior alternative.     

新区域经营观的空间体系价值统一规划理念——我的区域规划社会公正观

依据"新社会经济发展的公正理念"首议的"新区域经营"管理思想,从空间公正角度创立了将其耦合到区域发展规划的系统理念。当代人文社会科学与区域学科出现了"社会公正"转向探讨的系列"新"前沿理念。地理学提出了新人文地理学逻辑,社会行政的公共管理也提出了新公共管理逻辑。将空间公正与社会公正耦合到区域生活空间单元体系,为此"新区域经营"提出了"社会与区域价值统一"的原理。论文以新人文地理学的"社会生活空间质量观"为基础,阐述了"空间体系价值统一规划"机理、原则与控制性路径;其次,论证了其构建的价值体系响应及构成因素响应结构;最后,论述了新区域经营观对生活质量价值统一的两个层次控制规划规则与路径。     

PRICE UNCERTAINTY AND PRODUCTION-LOCATION DECISIONS UNDER FREE ENTRY OLIGOPOLY*

ABSTRACT. This paper departs from earlier work on location theory under uncertainty by considering an oligopoly case where the symmetric Cournot-Nash equilibrium of imperfectly competitive and identical firms are examined. It will be shown that once a Cournot competitive equilibrium is introduced, the demand function plays a central role in the choice of location, and the effects of changes in fixed costs, mean product price and price variability on the firm's optimum location and output are independent of absolute and/or relative risk aversion. These striking results are in sharp contrast with the well-known results obtained in previous contributions to the location literature.     

地域尺度重组下的我国城市与区域规划体系改革

中国传统的空间发展单元正在经历前所未有的地域尺度重组和经济社会重构过程,尺度运用已经成为我国调控空间发展的重要治理手段。本文基于尺度与尺度重组理论,梳理了我国国家治理的新型空间尺度,归纳了我国城市与区域规划体系的现状及其对新型空间尺度的适应性。在此基础上提出,适应尺度重组及尺度重组下国家空间治理重塑的新要求,必须尝试对我国城市与区域规划体系进行改革,整合区域空间规划体系,进一步完善都市区发展与建设规划,善用新区、试验区等的规划,并以治理理念引导规划思维的转变。     

A REGIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR PLANNING ECOTOURISM IN SASKATCHEWAN

An analysis of opportunities and constraints reveals potential for a limited ecotourism sector in Saskatchewan dominated by an intraprovincial market. A framework is proposed which augments the existing inventory of individual ecotourism sites by taking into consideration the variable spatial context within which these sites occur. Encompassing the entire province are five zones, progressing according to the degree of environmental modification through the Urban, Agricultural Heartland, Agricultural Frontier, Resource Frontier, and Wilderness. Each zone is characterized by distinctive configurations of ecotourism space, as well as economic status, participants, constraints, and opportunities.
Une analyse des avantages et des contraintes démontre le potentiel d'un secteur ecotouristique limité en Saskatchewan oú le marche interprovincial joue le rôle principal. Le cadre proposé augmenterait l'inventaire existant de sites individuels écotouristiques en tenant compte du contexte spatial variable dans lequel se trouvent ces sites. La province est divisee en cinq zones selon le niveau de transformation environnementale: une zone urbaine, une zone centrale agricole, une zone de developpement agricole recente, une zone nouvelle de dé veloppement des ressources et une zone sauvage. Chaque zone se caractérise par des configurations différentes d'espaces ecotouristiques aussi bien que par un statut economique, des participants, des contraintes et des possibilites differents.     

区域生态经济规划若干问题研究

区域生态经济规划的研究工作在我国始于20世纪80年代,起步较晚,仍处于初级阶段。本文从规划的主要对象、指导思想、理论依据、追求目标、所处阶段等方面比较了区域生态经济规划的差异,指出区域生态经济规划必须遵循整体性、区域性、市场经济、技术进步与创新、三效益并重统一、以人为本等基本原则,论述了区域生态经济规划的基本内容和编制程序,最后对编制好区域生态经济规划提出了三条建议,即:①加强领导,组织强有力的规划队伍;②抓住关键问题,不要面面俱到;③因地制宜,从实际出发。     

A MIXED-FREQUENCY MODEL OF REGIONAL OUTPUT*

ABSTRACT. This paper proposes a new method for estimating a monthly regional production model. The technique involves treating the region's monthly industrial output as a latent variable, which is in turn a function of capital (prosed by energy usage) and labor inputs. Annual observations on regional value added correspond to the summation of the unobservable monthly series over the 12 months, while changes in the national Industrial Production index help infer the series' month-to-month fluctuations. The model is estimated using the Kalman filter and the method of maximum likelihood. The estimates are used to compute monthly indices of regional value added for 15 individual 2-digit industries, and for the aggregate manufacturing sector in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. In a comparison of out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, the mixed-frequency model outperforms both the traditional parametric Cobb-Douglas and nonparametric Atlanta methods over the 1988–89 forecasting horizon.