UNCERTAIN INCOME AND HOUSING PRICE AND LOCATION CHOICE*

ABSTRACT. In this paper, we adapt recent developments in uncertainty modeling to the location choice paradigm. In particular, we analyze the impact of income and housing price uncertainty on housing demand and location demand characteristics in a partial equilibrium framework. We begin by recognizing that housing consumption cannot readily be altered in response to changes in income and price. We find that income and house price risk affect housing and location demands in different ways. Additionally, the spatial characteristics of price risk also affect consumer housing and location demands. For example, if housing price risk is lower farther from the central city, housing demand can be greater in those locations even with the higher transportation cost. Thus, over some locations, the expected price gradient could be positive.     

ANALYSIS OF A DYNAMIC RESIDENTIAL LOCATION CHOICE MODEL WITH TRANSACTION COSTS*

ABSTRACT. This paper incorporates transaction costs in a residential location choice model. An individual's choice is assumed to be an outcome of a two-stage process: a decision to change, or to undertake a transaction and, conditional on a change occurring, a choice of a new alternative. The dynamic choice model is aggregated to yield a Markovian model of residential location patterns. It is shown that recent contributions to dynamical urban modeling correspond to special cases of the deterministic version of this model. The Markovian model is used in a theoretical analysis of the influence of transaction costs on the properties of the stationary state. The effects of residential mobility rates and of interdependencies among individuals, caused by supply-side and density-related interactions, are also analyzed. It is shown how these dynamical factors modify the stationary state, thereby demonstrating the type of errors which may occur with static models that omit them.     

THE SCOPE FOR PURE PROFITS IN A STANDARD LOCATION MODEL*

ABSTRACT. This paper examines the possibility of sustaining a collusive equilibrium in a standard location model. Drawing on recent developments in game theory, it is suggested that collusion is only feasible if market areas lie within a certain range. When market areas are large the threat of entry is likely to undermine any collusive agreement. In contrast when market areas are small, defection from the cartel is shown to be profitable. Thus collusion is shown to be feasible only when market areas and demand lie within certain bounds. More generally, this result appears to be consistent with the somewhat ambiguous empirical evidence which suggests that competitive pricing behavior is likely to prevail in periods of excessively high demand and during recessions.     

STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION OF RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY AND HOUSING TENURE CHOICE*

ABSTRACT. This study is devoted to studying households'decisions to move and whether to rent or own after moving. It employs dynamic discrete choice models which condition households'decisions on their circumstances at every point in time during the length of the observation while accounting for individual heterogeneity. The results show that key dynamic elements, captured by means of lagged dependent variables, as well as household heterogeneity, are significant determinants of the tenure choice and mobility decisions. Moreover, homeowners are found to be responsive to housing market conditions when adjusting their housing stock. Housing-price appreciation is found to discourage renters from becoming homeowners. Finally, our results reject the proportional monetary transaction costs specification suggesting that monetary transaction costs might be fixed.     

A MODEL OF URBAN HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOR WITH LEISURE CHOICE

This paper provides a complete comparative-static analysis of the simplest model of urban household behavior that incorporates time explicitly. Results involving the housing-price function and the effects on housing consumption and location (radial distance from the CBD) of exogenous changes in preferences for housing, housing price, and money costs of transportation are the same as in models not incorporating time explicitly. In addition, it is found that housing consumption and location are negatively related to commuting time, positively related to nonwage income, and ambiguously related (both a priori and empirically, for reasonable values of the relevant variables) to the wage rate.     

THE LOCATION THEORY OF THE PLANTATION*

ABSTRACT This paper develops a method for studying noninfinitesimal operational units, with the Thünen location and land use model. With constant returns to scale and perfect divisibility of nonland inputs, all operational units would occupy only a point on the landscape. The present model uses increasing returns to scale to generate large operational units, called “plantations” and studies the comparative statics. The setting of the model is an agricultural operation in which some processing of raw crop must be conducted prior to shipment to market. The processing is assumed to have increasing returns to scale.     

A MANAGERIAL MODEL OF THE EFFECT OF PRODUCT MARKET STRUCTURE ON FIRM LOCATION*

ABSTRACT. This paper develops a model of firm location choice based on managerial theory of discretionary behavior. Specifically, it is assumed that the management of the firm maximizes a utility function which incorporates profits and location-specific amenities. As the firm moves from one prospective location to another, it faces a profit-amenity constraint imposed by market conditions. The optimal location decision is derived by maximizing the utility function subject to this market-imposed constraint. After examining the properties of the optimal solution, the impact of various changes in product market structure (including changes from a contestible markets perspective) on the location decision is investigated. A major finding is that the impact of a change in market structure depends upon the nature of the structure change and upon the substitution and income effects induced by the structural change.     

HOUSING SUBSIDIES AND URBAN HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOR*

ABSTRACT. This paper examines how housing subsidies affect housing and location demands in a monocentric market, identifying the extent to which policies prompt targeted populations to congregate more or less intensely in the central city. Various subsidies are studied: rents based on ability to pay, lump-sum housing aid, housing vouchers, and subsidies based on percentage of rent. The demand effects are seen to hinge critically upon whether or not subsidies are tied to binding consumption restrictions. Policy impacts are shown to be identical for both CBD employed and locally employed consumers targeted for the housing policies.     

A NEOCLASSICAL MODEL OF HOUSING QUALITY GROWTH AN INTERPRETATION*

The paper interprets a neoclassical model of quality growth in relation to housing technology, reinvestment choice, growth of the stock of shelter, growth with and without architectural design progress, and analyses of the golden rule of quality accumulation in the housing sector.     

THE ROLE OF INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE SUPPLY OF HOUSING*

ABSTRACT As the housing stock in a city is duplicated, developers must devote greater amounts of resources to the provision of infrastructure. If the production of infrastructure is characterized by decreasing returns to scale, this will cause the price of developable land to increase. The conditions under which an upward-sloping supply curve for housing will result are discussed. Using cross-sectional data for U.S. cities from 1973 to 1982, it is shown that land prices fail to increase with the quantity of construction and that the price elasticity of the supply of housing is infinite.