The direct election of mayors: an assessment of the institutional reform following the Italian municipal elections of 2001

On 13 May 2001, the same day as the general elections, municipal elections were held in more than 1,000 municipalities, including all the major Italian cities (Rome, Milan, Naples, Turin). Incumbents already re-elected once could not stand because of the two-term limit. This in many cases opened the way for a renewal of mayoralties. This article aims to provide a balanced assessment of the process of direct mayoral elections by using data relating to electoral behaviour, stability and mayoral recruitment inside the 103 Italian provincial capitals (the capoluoghi ) to complement an analysis of the reform of 1993. On the basis of the theoretical analysis and the empirical evidence provided, it is argued that the direct election of mayors, and more generally the neo-parliamentary system of government, represents an example of a successful institutional reform.     

The Italian national elections of 13 May 2001

As expected and long predicted by all the surveys, Silvio Berlusconi's Casa delle LibertÀ won the Italian national elections of 13 May 2001. The four coalition partners had significantly different results. Forza Italia became the largest Italian party while both the National Alliance and the White Flower lost votes but kept almost the same number of seats as in 1996, and were anyway happy to return to the government. The Northern League shared this kind of success, but lost heavily in terms of votes – falling below the 4 per cent threshold – and seats. In spite of its five years of good government, the Olive Tree/Centre-Left coalition was defeated. This article argues that the defeat was due to three major factors. First, the Olive Tree had broken its promise of one government, one Prime Minister, one programme of reforms. Second, it forfeited the advantage of incumbency by choosing Francesco Rutelli as its prime ministerial candidate, using an opaque procedure. Third, because of the differences of opinion among the various partners, the Olive Tree/Centre-Left could not capitalize either on its systemic reforms, that is joining the Euro and the reconstruction of a viable economic system, or on its piecemeal reforms. The list led by Rutelli, the Daisy, did relatively well. The real losers were the Left Democrats who, because of their organizational decline and political confusion, plummeted to their lowest percentage ever. Now Berlusconi has the chance to prove that he can not only win the elections, but also, in spite of his immense conflict of interests, govern the country. Come atteso e da lungo tempo previsto da tutti i sondaggi, la Casa delle LibertÀ di Silvio Berlusconi ha vinto le elezioni italiane del 13 maggio 2001. I suoi quattro alleati hanno ottenuto risultati diversi. Forza Italia è diventata il più forte partito italiano, mentre sia Alleanza Nazionale che il Biancofiore hanno perduto voti, pur mantenendo all'incirca lo stesso numero di seggi rispetto al 1996, ma sono comunque felici di ritornare al governo. La Lega Nord è egualmente soddisfatta per questo, nonostante abbia perso pesantemente in termini di seggi e di voti, non raggiungendo la soglia del 4 per cento. Questo articolo indica come, nonostante i suoi cinque anni di buon governo, la coalizione Ulivo/centro-sinistra sia stata sconfitta per tre fondamentali fattori. Primo, l'Ulivo non ha saputo mantenere le promesse fatte in campagna elettorale: un governo unico e un Primo ministro per tutto il corso della legislatura, e un programma di riforme. Secondo, ha sciupato il vantaggio derivante dall'essere il governo in carica scegliendo in maniera opaca il suo candidato alla presidenza del Consiglio Francesco Rutelli. Terzo, a causa delle differenze di opinione fra i diversi alleati, l'Ulivo/centro-sinistra non ha saputo sfruttare nè le sue riforme sistemiche, come la partecipazione italiana nell'Euro e il risanamento economico, né le riforme specifiche. La Margherita, lista guidata da Rutelli, ha avuto un buon successo, mentre i Democratici di Sinistra sono i veri perdenti poichè, in preda a confusione politica e organizzativa, sono piombati al loro pi basso livello percentuale di sempre. Adesso, Berlusconi ha la possibilitÀ di provare che non è soltanto capace di vincere le elezioni, ma anche, nonostante l'immenso conflitto di interessi determinato dalla sua posizione imprenditoriale, di governare il paese.     

Burma's historic elections

This guest editorial looks at Burma's national elections that have the promise of radically changing Burma's government after over half a century of military rule.     

The 2013 elections and the Italian political system

The February 2013 Italian general elections were characterized by the highest volatility to date. Although, thanks to the majority bonus, the Partito Democratico (Democratic Party) obtained the absolute majority of seats in the House of Deputies, it could not be considered the winner of the elections. Lacking a majority in the Senate, it was obliged to form a government with Silvio Berlusconi's party and with the rather small number of parliamentarians elected in former Prime Minister Mario Monti's list. In spite of his last-minute surge, Berlusconi was a clear loser, having lost almost six million votes in respect of his 2008 victory. Comedian Beppe Grillo's Movimento Cinque Stelle (Five Stars Movement) received the highest-ever number of votes for a new entry into any post-war European general election. Unwilling to play the coalitional game and made up of inexperienced and incompetent parliamentarians, Grillo's party has remained isolated and ineffective. The present Italian party system consists of three poles, the Movimento Cinque Stelle playing the role of anti-system party. Institutional reforms and especially reform of the electoral system, which has been struck down by the Constitutional Court, are again the focus of debate. Restructuring of the Italian political system is yet to come.     

An alternative classification of Australian elections

Attempts have been made to apply to Australia the classification of elections developed by researchers at the University of Michigan. However, the American model is not suitable for Australian elections on a number of grounds. An alternative classification of Australian elections could be made by modifying the basic scheme developed for New Zealand elections.     

Thailand-Four elections and a coup

Thailand's political turmoil, evident after the December 2007 elections, is more than the sparks of ordinary conflict between rival elites seeking access to state power. The struggle has become not just about state capture, but also about who gets to determine the most fundamental questions relating to political order – the rules of the game. This article offers a critical interpretation of a decade of Thai politics, with the focus on the 2007 election and its aftermath. It examines debates about democracy, considers the position of the Thai monarchy and reflects on the regional implications of the Thai crisis.

     

The Myanmar imbroglio and ASEAN: heading towards the 2010 elections

Following the adoption of a new constitution by national referendum, Myanmar's military junta is set to organize multiparty elections in 2010. Not least to influence Myanmar's leadership, with regard to the conditions Washington believes necessary for credible elections, the United States announced in September 2009 that it would embark on a new approach towards Naypyidaw. This will focus on a high‐level dialogue while keeping existing sanctions in place. The Obama administration has asked the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to support this new approach. Against the backdrop of the deep divide between the ruling generals and Aung San Suu Kyi, and the continued conflict between Naypyidaw and armed ethnic nationalities, this article asks: How strong is ASEAN's record when it comes to influencing the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) in relation to matters of national reconciliation and political transition? What factors explain ASEAN's approach towards Myanmar? What prospect, if any, is there that ASEAN states can influence Myanmar's political developments before the 2010 elections? The article argues that ASEAN has not moved beyond a collective criticism which aims to induce Naypyidaw to respond positively to the demands of its international detractors. ASEAN's norms, different political identities and geopolitical interests coupled with the SPDC's prickliness have limited the consensus on Myanmar. Naypyidaw's calculations about relations with Washington, rather than ASEAN's ‘enhanced interactions’ with the military government, and domestic political dynamics are likely to be the crucial determinants of further developments in the context of the 2010 elections.     

The campaigns and elections of congresswomen Edith Green and Julia Butler Hansen

The Third Congressional Districts of Oregon and Washington face each other across the Columbia River. It is not surprising that for more than a decade each district had been represented in Congress by the same representative or that they were both Democrats. Though Oregon's Third District is much more urban and compact than Washington's, they share some of the demographic and economic characteristics which are usually associated with Democratic constituencies outside of the South, namely, a relatively high proportion of persons employed in manufacturing or other heavily unionized occupations, who are relatively mobile, or of fairly recent ethnic stock. What is not so expected is that both incumbent Congressmen were Congresswomen — Edith Green of Oregon and Julia Butler Hansen of Washington. Mrs Green and Mrs Hansen were chosen as the specific subjects of this study because they had both demonstrated political longevity in retaining Congressional office throughout see‐sawing political changes in party domination in both their states and the national administration. They were both longstanding members of the Democratic Party. They were both from the Pacific Northwest, giving them common regional interests, and indeed, while from different states, their districts are continuous with the Columbia River as a common boundary adding specific common district interests. Each had attained what are generally recognized as powerful positions within the structure of the Congress as chairpersons of important subcommittees: Mrs Green as Chairman of the Special Subcommittee on Education of the House Committee on Education and Labor; Mrs Hansen as Chairman of the Subcommittee on Appropriations for the Interior and Related Agencies of the House Appropriations Committee. And finally, both women were in their early sixties.     

March

1日-2日,22日-23日,台弯云门舞集将携《九歌》登陆国家大剧院歌剧院和广州大剧院,以屈原的诗篇作为想象力的跳板,为北京和广州的观众呈现一场剧场祭仪。票价为160元-1080元。     

Economic conditions and forecasting of Australian elections revisited

In a recent paper in this journal, Jackman and Marks (1994) examine the relationship between economic conditions and election outcomes in Australia using data from 1949 onwards. Their analysis, however, is in my opinion technically inadequate because they seem to have overlooked the possible existence of autocorrelation in their models. In this paper, I present a re‐examination of some of their models which takes autocorrelation into account and which results in improvements in both the fit of the models and of their overall predictive accuracy. Inflation is shown to be a more definite influence on vote shares than are changes in unemployment rates. Also, I show that Jackman and Marks’ conclusion that the 1993 election was an exceptional one in the way in which economic conditions affected aggregate vote shares is incorrect, and that the election result was actually quite well within the normal range in the extent to which it was accurately predicted by economic conditions.