An Analysis of Migration Streams for the Canadian Regional System, 1952–1983 1. Migration Probabilities

This is part one of a two-part series that seeks to specify the factors and processes contributing to aggregate change in the Canadian population distribution over the recent past. In part one, we use a model of migration probabilities to identify socioeconomic factors that explain the observed interregional migration flows. In part two, we use an adjustment process for our regional population system to calculate equilibrium population distributions. The estimated migration probabilities of part one are essential for this calculation, thus linking equilibria with the socioeconomic factors previously identified. Disequilibrium, defined as the difference between observed and equilibrium population distributions, is then used to infer relative growth and decline tendencies in the system. We examine and justify our results in the larger context of contemporary Canadian history.     

An Analysis of Migration Streams for the Canadian Regional System, 1952–1983: 2. Disequilibrium

This is part two of a two-part series that seeks to specify the factors and processes contributing to aggregate change in the Canadian population distribution over the recent past. In part one, we use a model of migration probabilities to identify socioeconomic factors that explain the observed interregional migration flows. In part two, we use an adjustment process for our regional population system to calculate equilibrium population distributions. The estimated migration probabilities of part one are essential for this calculation, thus linking equilibria with the socioeconomic factors previously identified. Disequilibrium, defined as the difference between observed and equilibrium population distributions, is then used to infer relative growth and decline tendencies in the system. We examine and justify our results in the larger context of contemporary Canadian history.     

On the Implications of a Stationary Urban Population For the Size Distribution of Cities

The paper analyzes the limiting case for a modified Yule-Simon model of city growth. The aim of the paper is primarily to reintroduce geographers to the notion of a closed system of cities, i.e., a system of cities where the aggregate population is stationary in size. The Yule-Simon model, while successful in dealing with the observed properties of open systems, is seen to break down for closed systems. Moreover, incorporating Simon's assumptions regarding intercity migration into the model produces implausible results. Also, the traditional approach of employing entropy-maximizing procedures assumes a certain pattern of intercity migration. This pattern, while not inherently implausible, does present features which are questionable. The authors conclude that an adequate theory for closed systems has yet to be developed.     

The assumption of equilibrium in models of migration

In recent articles Evans (1990) and Harrigan and McGregor (1993) (hereafter HM) scrutinized the equilibrium model of migration presented in a 1989 paper by Schachter and Althaus. This model used standard microeconomics to analyze gross interregional migration flows based on the assumption that gross flows are in approximate equilibrium. HM criticized the model as theoretically untenable, while Evans summoned empirical as well as theoretical objections. HM claimed that equilibrium of gross migration flows could be ruled out on theoretical grounds. They argued that the absence of net migration requires that either all regions have equal populations or that unsustainable regional migration propensities must obtain. In fact some moves are inter- and other are intraregional. It does not follow, however, that the number of interregional migrants will be larger for the more populous region. Alternatively, a country could be divided into a large number of small regions that have equal populations. With uniform propensities to move, each of these analytical regions would experience in equilibrium zero net migration. Hence, the condition that net migration equal zero is entirely consistent with unequal distributions of population across regions. The criticisms of Evans were based both on flawed reasoning and on misinterpretation of the results of a number of econometric studies. His reasoning assumed that the existence of demand shifts as found by Goldfarb and Yezer (1987) and Topel (1986) invalidated the equilibrium model. The equilibrium never really obtains exactly, but economic modeling of migration properly begins with a simple equilibrium model of the system. A careful reading of the papers Evans cited in support of his position showed that in fact they affirmed rather than denied the appropriateness of equilibrium modeling. Zero net migration together with nonzero gross migration are not theoretically incompatible with regional heterogeneity of population, wages, or amenities.     

The Geographic Components of Change in a Migration System

A method for deriving a set of geographic components of temporal change in a system of interregional flows is proposed and applied in an analysis of U.S. interstate migration in the early 1980s. Dynamic change in net migration is conceptualized to consist of system-growth, system-mobility, geographic mix, and competitive components. Hypotheses concerning the structural dynamics of migration systems are suggested, as are some implications for migration-modeling techniques.     

Requiem for the Fixed-Transition-Probability Migrant

In a recent paper titled “Requiem for the Net Migrant” Andrei Rogers persuasively argues for the use of a multiregional perspective rather than a uniregional one in measuring and projecting the dynamics of internal migration. In particular, he highlights the deficiencies of using net migration rates in population projections, giving illustrations of the very large differences that can occur if constant net migration rates are assumed versus fixed interregional transition probabilities. Net migration rates are conceptually unsound because their denominators are not true “at-risk” populations. Fixed interregional transition probabilities, however, are inconsistent with a sound behavioral representation of migration system dynamics. Whereas such stationary Markov models posit a role for shifting origin region populations, they do not embed the assumptions intrinsic to gravity or opportunity model concepts about the role of changing destination region populations. This paper explores alternative, more behaviorally pleasing interregional models that posit a role for shifting destination populations in altering the attractiveness of migration alternatives. Density-dampened, destination-population-weighted transition probability structures are explored. The importance of modeling intraregional migration separately from nonmovement is stressed.     

Modeling Suburbanization as an Evolutionary System Dynamic

The research undertaken investigates the applicability of Allen and Sanglier's dynamic model of urban system evolution to the process of suburbanization occurring in the post-World War II United States. The model, derived from principles of the theory of dissipative structures formulated by Ilya Prigogine, considers the urban system as open and far from equilibrium, thereby allowing a dynamic evolution which has the following properties. The structure of a system at any point in its development is historically contingent upon the sequence of structures it has exhibited in its past, and on the precise nature of random fluctuations which have acted to induce structural change. The joint action of chance and determinism influence a system's evolution through the complex interactions and feedback mechanisms embedded in its structure. The critical point at which these forces cause the system to undergo a structural change is called a bifurcation point. The model allows that the microdynamics of the system underlie its macrostate. This implies, therefore, the opportunity for individuals to influence the system's structure and for the possibility for creative system evolution to occur. The central question of the research was whether the processes of deconcentration of population and dispersal of employment from the central cities to the suburbs of large U.S. metropolises, with the resulting morphological shifts from mono- to polycentric urban forms, represent structural changes of the sort defined and modeled by Allen and Sanglier's adaptation of Prigogine's theory. The introduction of a calibration procedure, unspecified in previous applications of the model, provides a means whereby the calibration of the many system parameters can proceed in a systematic fashion, offering insight into the function of these parameters in the overall dynamic and their interactions with one another. Research results highlight the benefits of Allen and Sanglier's approach and areas inviting further investigation.     

METROPOLITAN AND NON-METROPOLITAN POPULATION TRENDS IN CANADA, 1966–1982

This paper discusses broad population movements within and between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions in Canada during the recent past. It is based on an annual series of aggregate migration at the metropolitan level. Three complementary approaches are used in order to distill information from this vast array of interregional flows. The first is based on net migration. The second, disequilibrium analysis, is based on the difference between the observed population shares of regions and a set of calculated steady-state population shares which would result if the currently observed set of interregional migration rates remained constant. Both approaches indicate short-term effects of migration on the evolving pattern of regional growth and decline. The third approach, based on aggregate interregional flows, allows one to observe some changes in migration behaviour which are not made evident by the first two approaches.     

ESTIMATING INTERREGIONAL UTILITY DIFFERENTIALS*

ABSTRACT The major objective of this paper is to estimate regional utility levels based on interregional migration data. We first revealed three stylized facts concerning migration behavior by examining long‐term Japanese data on interregional migration. We then uncovered inconsistency between net migration and utility differential in the presence of distance‐related migration costs. Based on the stylized facts and the inconsistency problem, we formulated an operational model and estimated interregional utility differentials. We showed that the interregional utility differentials converged until the late 1970s. We also showed that the utility estimates are highly correlated with the per capita real income. We also applied the model to interregional migration data in the United States and Canada and confirmed the model's validity.     

News Notes

The settling of the Russians in Siberia is considered in the framework of three periods: (1) the 17th century, when the initial nucleus of the Russian population contingent was formed; (2) the 18th century and first half of the 19th, when in-migration declined and natural increase assumed a greater role in population growth; (3) the second half of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th, when Eastern Siberia's population grew at about the same rate as that of Russia as a whole, mainly through natural increase. Differences in natural increase, migration, economic activity and ethnic composition accounted for a wide diversification of the settling process within the region, and a number of distinctive settlement areas are described and mapped for the last two periods. Except for the initial intensive migration flow that gave rise to the nucleus of Russian population, Eastern Siberia's population growth before the 1917 Revolution derived mainly from natural increase, with migration playing a subordinate role.     

A Time Series Analysis of Regional Income Inequalities and Migration in Japan, 1955–1985

This study tests the neoclassical concept of interregional migration in post–World War II Japan. The lead-lag relationship between net migration to a core area and regional income inequalities is examined by modeling an ARIMA transfer function. Until 1961, there was a rapid growth in net migration from the periphery to the core area that was accompanied by rapid divergence in regional income inequalities. Since then, migration to the core apparently has declined due to a convergence of regional income inequalities. The time series analysis indicates there has been short-run, as well as long-run, volatility in migration related to cyclical variations in economic performance in the core.     

The Effect of Migration on Changes,Composition, and Distribution of Canada's Population

The high mobility of the Canadian population accounts for the significant influence of migration processes on the dynamics, composition, and distribution of population. Immigration determines to a large extent the age-and-sex and ethnic distribution of the population and labor force, and fosters urbanization. The areal distribution of immigrants intensifies regional differences in the level and structure of the economy. These differences, in turn, are the main factor in interregional migration. The interdependence between regional economic indicators and the intensity of migration is analyzed.     

The State of the Art in Modeling Migration in LDCS: A Comment

Early research on migration in LDCs, initially motivated by labor market postulates offered by Harris and Todaro, built upon general equilibrium models of interregional trade. In contrast, recent research on migration (such as Brueckner and Kim in this issue) builds upon a partial equilibrium analysis that is based on an urban land model. There are subtle differences between these models that complicate intermodel comparisons. The current paper, motivated by this complexity, has three purposes: (1) a mathematical explication of the state of the art in migration modeling, (2) a provision of further insights into the Todaro paradox, and (3) a suggestion for future research predicated on melding the urban land and interregional literatures.     

A Hierarchical Migration Model of Population Redistribution within a Central Place Hierarchy

A simple hierarchical migration model is proposed as a mechanism for the redistribution of population within a Christaller central place hierarchy. Given a predefined functional hierarchy, the migration process causes any initial population distribution to converge to an equilibrium distribution. Under certain special conditions, the equilibrium is identical to a central place population distribution derived from economic base concepts.     

Major Cyclical Components of the 1966–71 Canadian Interregional Population System

The eight most durable cyclical components determined by the 1966–71 structural matrix of the eight-region and ten-age-group Canadian interregional population system are identified. Each of these components is related to a unique region. Their periods distribute within a narrow range around the length of a generation, while their half lives vary substantially, mainly due to a large variation in the shapes of regional fertility schedules. The magnitudes of cyclical waves transmitted among regions tend to be positively related to interregional outmigration rates. The most durable and significant cyclical component has its greatest impact on the age profile of Ontario.     

Stability of Spatial Equilibrium*

Abstract. Asymptotic stability of equilibrium is often difficult to know when the number of variables exceeds four, since all eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix are not analytically solvable. However, we obtain stability conditions for a general class of migration dynamics without computing eigenvalues. We show that a spatial equilibrium is stable in the presence of strong congestion diseconomies, but unstable in the presence of strong agglomeration economies. We also show existence of a stable equilibrium in the case of negligible interregional externalities, which is applicable to club goods, local public goods, and new economic geography.     

The economic impact of national competition policy on Australian regions

Over the past 7 years Australia has been undergoing substantial economic reform under a collaborative Federal and State government programme known as national competition policy. These reforms have increased the nation's productivity and international competitiveness, and are generally held responsible for Australia's increased growth rate in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita over the past decade. However, the reforms have been carried out against a background of increased interregional disparities, to which the reform programme may have partly contributed. In this study we examine a number of Australian studies that have used computable general equilibrium modelling to uncover the regional economic consequences of national competition policy.     

Modeling Geographic Ferrous Scrap Markets: Regional Prices and Interregional Transactions in the United States*

Abstract. The U.S. Regional Ferrous Scrap Model analyzes spatial variations in prices for two grades of ferrous scrap using a logistic model of choice under differentiated products. The model uses a computer‐generated equilibrium framework to solve for prices that support the observed spatial distribution of supply and demand quantities. This paper presents the model's formal structure and its solution algorithm. The model specification is highly disaggregated with 1,212 supply and 240 demand regions. Characteristics of the equilibrium solution are described for prices and interregional flows. Sensitivity of equilibrium values to changes in model parameters is reported.     

Current Literature Bibliography

The author describes a static city model consisting of six matrices: the city's industrial output, its distribution among city industries, population and out-shipments, and the inflow of goods to the city, with a breakdown by industrial consumers and the population. The model, as applied to three urban places of the Dnieper economic region, in used to determine a city's interindustry and interregional relationships and its rank in the hierarchy of urban places.     

Gains and losses, outcomes of interregional migration in the five Nordic countries

This paper examines the outcome of interregional migration in various aspects from the migrants' perspective. It is based on a survey, including 6 000 interregional migrants in the five Nordic countries. The results indicate that interregional migration leads to a positive outcome for most migrants and few people seem to be forced to make decisions including painful tradeoffs. Motives have an effect on what aspects of outcome migrants are satisfied with. The influence of individual migrants' characteristics on migration outcome revealed few significant effects. Migrants claimed to be most satisfied with living conditions and less satisfied with the livelihood after moving. To be satisfied with social conditions turned out to be crucially important for the general outcome of migration.