A LONG-RUN INTERPRETATION OF REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT. Regional input-output (I-O) analysis is traditionally motivated by a short-run, extreme Keynesian vision of markets. In this paper we argue that an appropriately formulated, investment-endogenous, I-O system replicates the long-run equilibria of a wide range of regional models, many of which do not operate as I-O systems in the short run. In particular, we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework to illustrate the impact of an aggregate demand disturbance on an I-O and standard neoclassical model. When run forward over a number of periods, the results from the capacity-constrained neoclassical model asymptotically approach the I-O outcome. We use sensitivity analysis to examine the speed of adjustment of the neo-classical system and investigate barriers to the attainment of the I-O result.     

Economic growth and restructuring in Canada's heartland and hinterland: From shift‐share to multifactor partitioning

The geography of the Canadian economy has long been dominated by heartland‐hinterland contrasts, with manufacturing identified as the dominant function of most heartland cities in analyses of the 1961 and 1971 census data. However, the proportion of employment in manufacturing has been declining in the heartland provinces of Ontario and Quebec over the past fifty years and some geographers argue that the heartland‐hinterland dimension of the regional economy is being overridden by city‐regions that are integrated into global networks of production and trade. The heartland‐hinterland trends are examined using multifactor partitioning (MFP), an advanced shift‐share methodology, for the period of 2001–2006. This is the first intercensal period in which Canadian business has faced the full impact of the removal of North American tariff protection and the increased globalization of the Canadian economy. The data covers employment by eighteen industry sectors for the seventy‐three economic regions defined by Statistics Canada. MFP measures the region and industry‐mix effects, which are interpreted as in the traditional shift‐share model (though they are derived more accurately) and, in addition, an interaction effect. The results demonstrate that the broad heartland‐hinterland differences in the distribution of population and employment growth are increasing not decreasing and that the hinterland is in fact falling further behind the heartland in employment growth. However the Calgary‐Edmonton corridor and the Lower Mainland of British Columbia are emerging as a western heartland. The population size of cities does affect their rates of employment growth, but so too does their location: the growth of heartland cities is outpacing those in the hinterland. The Appendix provides the equations for two‐variable multifactor partitioning.     

SUPPLY-SIDE MULTIREGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS*

ABSTRACT This paper introduces a new class of supply-side multiregional input-output (MRIO) models and provides the necessary and sufficient conditions on the regional trade matrices that ensure that a generalized supply-side model will be convergent. The paper also introduces a new version of the row coefficient model, conceived as the “mirror image” of the Chenery-Moses demand-side column coefficient MRIO model. Given that the conventional supply-side input-output model has been shown to perform equally as well as the demand side model in forecasting exercises, the supply-side MRIO model is expected to be of value for policy and planning purposes. Moreover, this model is of potential theoretical value for a broad synthesis of demand-side and supply-side MRIO models.     

港口连通性及其影响因素的时空差异——以中国环渤海港口为例

为明确港口连通性及其影响因素的时空差异，基于港口供应链视角，从港口面向内陆、内贸和外贸连通能力构建港口连通性模型，并借助空间计量模型对2002-2017年间中国环渤海港口连通性及其影响因素的时空差异进行测度。结果表明：①除天津、青岛和大连港连通性最强外，内陆、内贸和外贸连通性最强分别为日照、唐山和烟台港，连通性最弱分别为威海、丹东和盘锦港，黄骅港增速最快；②连通性分布具有多核心-边缘特征和多门户港口并存格局；③连通性影响因素具有空间相关性和异质性，但均对连通性有正向促进作用。本文旨在使决策者明确港口运输的连通能力及其影响因素，为港口规划布局和提升在港口供应链中地位提供决策支持。     

边界效应与跨国界经济合作的地域模式——以东亚地区为例

边界是划分不同政治实体及其管辖地域的政治地理界线。国际边界对地区经济发展有屏障和中介两种效应,并在一定条件下可相互转化。从跨国界经济合作的角度,可划分出封闭型、半封闭型和开放型等边界类型,不同的边界类型对跨国界次区域经济合作的影响不同。边界效应在空间维上是可变的,通过空间扩散向腹地外延。文中图示了核心腹地、紧密腹地和边缘腹地三种类型。在经济全球化和区域经济集团化的推动下,开放型边界逐渐增多,跨国界次区域经济合作日益发展,成为区域经济集团化的一种重要表现形式。本文以边界经济合作发展迅速的东亚地区为研究样本,提出了边界跨国界经济合作的3种基本地域模式,即通道模式、贸易口岸模式和开发区模式,并探讨了各自在边界经济合作中的发展内涵及发展前景。     

SPATIAL DISCONTINUITY FOR THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF THE EU REGIONAL POLICY: THE CASE OF ITALIAN OBJECTIVE 1 REGIONS*

The economic impact of the Regional Policy of the European Union is still controversial. This paper exploits administrative boundaries as spatial discontinuity to estimate the causal effect of this policy on the Italian Objective 1 regions’ employment. The analysis, developed both in a border strategy framework (municipalities contiguous to the policy‐change boundary) and with more traditional RDD models balanced by spatial forcing variables (centroids’ distance and coordinates), shows that the EU Regional Policy produced a positive impact on employment levels, without any displacement of economic activities away from nontreated regions and a concentration of the impact in key economic sectors.     

THE IMMIGRATION SURPLUS REVISITED IN A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL WITH ENDOGENOUS GROWTH*

ABSTRACT We revisit the influential work of Borjas (1995) on the economic gain to the host population from immigration—“the immigration surplus.” We develop his analysis by using a general equilibrium endogenous growth model with endogenous capital and several sectors, including an R&D sector driving growth. Skilled immigration leads to a bigger R&D sector share resulting in higher long‐term growth. If skilled labor and physical capital are complements, this growth gain increases. Growth effects on the immigration surplus dominate the purely static effects of Borjas, but are not sufficient to eliminate the emergence of losers (skilled natives) within the host population.     

The Macro‐Economic Effects of Directed Credit Policies: A Real‐Financial CGE Evaluation for India

The effectiveness of directed credit programmes as an instrument for economic development is the subject of considerable debate. However, the focus of this debate is almost exclusively on the intra‐sectoral effects of directed credit and its adverse effects on financial sector performance, neglecting possible spillover effects on demand, production and investment in the rest of the economy. This article tries to fill this gap by examining the macro‐economic effects of directed credit in India with the help of a novel real‐financial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Focusing on credit rather than money, the model goes beyond earlier modelling approaches by (1) incorporating directed credit policy and credit rationing; (2) recognizing the dual role of credit for working capital and investment; and (3) allowing for switches between credit‐constrained, capacity‐constrained and demand‐constrained regimes. The results from short‐ and medium‐term simulation experiments with the model indicate that, when credit market failures result in rationing as in India’s agricultural and small‐scale industrial sectors, the macro‐economic effects of directed credit are likely to be significant and positive.     

教育资源配置对住房价格影响的时空差异研究——以35个大中城市为例

本文以2002—2017年35个大中城市为数据基础,借鉴Rosen-Roback城市空间均衡模型,测度大中城市教育资源对住房价格的影响差异性。研究发现:(1)控制其他变量后,教育事业费支出水平每提高1%,住房价格水平平均上涨0.156个百分点;(2)空间维度上,沿海城市的教育资源对住房价格的影响,显著小于内陆城市;而政治级别的差异在大中城市间的影响较小;(3)时间维度来看,教育资源对住房价格的影响在各时期都是显著存在的,表明教育资源的影响具有长期累积特征;从影响程度绝对值来看,影响系数具有随时间递减的特征。     

MEASURING THE DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF A TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: A SIMPLIFIED APPROACH*

The Multiregional Variable Input-Output (MRVIO) model is introduced to measure the development impact of a transportation system. The MRVIO model is a theoretically flexible, computationally simple, and cost-responsive model. Under the MRVIO model, regional input-output coefficients, trade coefficients, and trade flows become cost responsive and easy to compute. The MRVIO model is employed to measure the development impact of the Arkansas waterway during the period of 1974 to 1978. In the study, the U.S. economy is disaggregated into 3 regions and 35 industrial sectors. The MRVIO model estimates the economic conditions of these 3 regions with and without the waterway in terms of industrial output, income, employment, and trade flows.     

青岛物流产业发展的空间竞争研究

物流是在网络信息技术支持之下,由运输、仓储、包装、装卸、加工和配送等环节所组成的,有形物品从产出源地到最终消费地的流动仓储活动。物流产业是推动地区经济发展的新型服务产业,是社会分工深化的结果。通过构建国际物流流程模型,探索港口城市国际物流的运作机制和一般规律;通过对三大港口城市进行港口-腹地关系的对比分析,揭示青岛物流产业发展所面临的国际和国内竞争;最后,结合青岛在区位、水深、腹地以及港口设施等方面的优势,提出青岛物流产业发展的方向及对策。     

The Role of Economic Sectors in the Formation of Regional Production Complexes

A variety of approaches used in Soviet economic geography to define and measure the productive specialization of an economic region are reviewed. In the author's view, a regional activity qualifies as regional specialization if it helps shape the basic character of the regional economy. It is not sufficient for a regional activity merely to represent a major portion of a particular national sector of the economy. For example, the asbestos industry in the Urals represents the major portion of Soviet asbestos output, but asbestos does not shape the basic character of the Urals economy and is therefore not a principal specialization sector. Regional specialization derives from relationships among the various sectors of the regional economy, not from the significance of any particular commodity. A classification of economic sectors is proposed as an aid in analyzing the functioning of a regional economy: (1) the principal specialization sectors; (2) basic raw-material sectors; (3) associated sectors using the wastes and by-products of the principal sectors; (4) complementary specialization sectors, such as asbestos in the Urals; (5) auxiliary sectors, such as metallurgical fluxes for the iron and steel industry; (6) service sectors, including utilities, transportation, construction, trade; (7) local sectors, working for local consumption.     

Multi-sectoral Cluster Modelling: The Evaluation of Scottish Enterprise Cluster Policy

This article describes the ex post cluster evaluation framework being developed by Scottish Enterprise. It focuses primarily on the macro level evaluation and, in particular, on the use of multi-sectoral modelling techniques to identify the effects of cluster policy on key indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment and competitiveness. The Scottish Input-Output (I-O) table is a key element in this approach. The strengths and weaknesses of I-O data, both as a basis for this analysis and as a means of identifying important intra-cluster linkages are explored. Further, the article describes methods for visual representation of the linkages identified using such a method.     

Port cities and hinterlands: A comparative study of Singapore and Calcutta

This paper analyses the evolution of Singapore and Calcutta from colonial port cities to a post-colonial city-state and a city within a state, respectively. It will examine how the historical trajectories of these cities were determined and complicated by their maritime character and evolving relations with their respective hinterlands. Singapore had a fluid (literally and metaphorically) hinterland and its economic, social and cultural orientations were defined by the maritime trade that it conducted and the networks that were developed as a result of its commercial activities. The modern state of Singapore, which embraces the world as its ‘hinterland’, remains in essence a port city – subjected to global flows, multi-cultural influences and fully integrated with and dependent on regional and global commercial networks. Calcutta's position as port city, too, grew out of empire and imperial trade, but unlike Singapore, it had a clearly defined and dominant hinterland – Bengal. Its identity as a Bengali city is therefore unmistakable and it clearly shares in the strengths and weaknesses of its immediate social, economic and political hinterland, especially in its post-colonial incarnation, when it shifted from being an imperial city to a regional city.     

International regulation and regional development: Consequences of the single European market for small and medium sized enterprises in Portugal

In seeking to understand contexts for regional development an increasingly important element is the growing influence of international institutions and agreements in the regulation of economic systems. Within Europe the economic liberalization and increased market competition encouraged by the Single European Market (SEM) has been widely predicted to benefit larger elements of capital and core regions of economic activity at the expense of Europe's smaller firms and less favoured peripheral regions. Through analysis of results from empirical research, this paper will analyze the impact of the SEM on small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in north and central Portugal. The significance of sectoral and spatial variations in impact are examined by considering two industrial sectors, food and clothing, and the effectiveness of firms’ responses and policy initiatives in mediating the potentially negative impacts of Single Market competition are evaluated.     

‘Our home,our way of life’: spiritual homelessness and the sociocultural dimensions of Indigenous homelessness in the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada

In this article, I examine the sociocultural dimensions of Indigenous home and homelessness through a case study of increasing visible homelessness in two northern Canadian communities. Drawing on five years of ethnographic research on Indigenous homelessness in Yellowknife and Inuvik, two regional centres in the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, I suggest that Indigenous experiences of homelessness are at once collective and immediate. In particular, I draw on the concept of ‘spiritual homelessness’ (Keys Young 1998) to examine the multiple scales of homelessness experienced among northern Indigenous people. Research participants highlight several key elements of rapid sociocultural change that have an enduring impact on a collective sense of home and belonging, and play integral roles in shaping the experiences of homeless Indigenous people. Social and material exclusion, breakdowns in family and community, detachment from cultural identity, intergenerational trauma and institutionalisation are all woven throughout the personal narratives of homelessness articulated by research participants. I argue that the alleviation of Indigenous homelessness in the NWT depends on a decolonising agenda that specifically addresses contemporary colonial geographies and their expressions in the key institutions in Indigenous peoples' lives.     

UNDERSTANDING THE UNIQUE IMPACTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH VARIABLES*

ABSTRACT The paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for a small city to examine how expansions in export and local sectors, changes in total factor productivity (TFP), and growth in population impact an economy. We examine the effects of each source of growth and find that the level and distribution of economic activity vary considerably. We also evaluate each source of growth in the context of a variety of policy metrics, which provide guidelines to policy makers, including the types of firms to be recruited in specific regions.     

西方地理学界关于生产性服务业作用研究述评

生产性服务业是目前西方大部分服务业体系中对国民经济作用最显著的部分,20世纪70年代以来,西方学者关于生产性服务业作用的研究日益增加。总括而言,西方地理学者对生产性服务业作用的研究主要从四个方面进行:生产性服务业对城市与区域整体发展的作用、对地区的制造业发展的作用、对地区其他服务业发展的作用,以及对城市等级序列重构的作用。其中,主要是从产业的内在功能和布局两个角度研究生产性服务业的作用。     

城市和区域产业发展分析的增长商测度

区域产业分析的常用测度之一是区位商,该测度用于一个地理单元（如北京市）中某种行业在全部行业中的比重与特定区域（如全中国）的同种行业比重做比较。然而,区位商是一个静态概念,不能反映一种行业的相对增长幅度或者变化速度。基于数学中"商"的概念和理论地理学中测度构造的一般方法,本文定义了一个行业增长商测度,用于比较一个子区域中某种行业的增长幅度与特定地理区域中同一行业增长幅度,数值越大表明一个子区域的某种行业相对于特定区域的同种行业的增速越快、增幅越大。进一步地,定义了一个区域增长商,用于比较某种行业的相对增幅与全部行业的平均增幅,数值越大表明某种行业在全部行业中的增速越快。采用信阳实例说明了增长商分析的应用方法。作为参照,定义、对比并讨论了区位熵和增长熵测度。增长商是一个动态的测度,简明易懂,在区域产业分析中可以与区位商功能互补,在未来的主导产业选择中可能发挥一定作用。