黄金周旅游的理性回归

黄金周旅游现象是目前我国旅游业发展中一种非常重要的现象。作为一种“政策经济”,在推动旅游业快速发展的同时,又引发了一系列问题。旅游需求的集中释放导致了许多失衡现象的发生和市场有效配置功能的失效;市场的压抑性调节又使黄金周旅游现象不断出现新的特点,以人为本和度假休闲成为黄金周旅游的最本质要求。黄金周旅游的卖方市场地位已经发生动摇,黄金周旅游作为过渡时期的特殊现象,最终将归于理性。     

Optimizing the Spatial Structure of the Agricultural Production Function

Important characteristics of spatial agricultural production functions are derived by introducing a non‐negative curvilinear spatial demand function for production input intensities. Given the usual neoclassical rationale assumptions of spatial demand for capital and labor inputs under competitive environment of farming in developing agricultural economies, the optimal production levels are determined by optimizing spatial demand for production inputs. Decreasing price‐to‐transport costs ratio (that is, decrease in the prices of capital goods or increase in freight rates) and increasing wage‐to‐travel costs ratio (that is, increase in labor wages or decrease in the travel rate) expand the limits of the (spatial) optimal boundary of the demand for agricultural capital goods and labor input respectively. These effects occur on account of the operation of (positive) spatial price gradient and (negative) wage‐gradient in the market region. It may be noted that elasticities of demand for production factors are spatially variant and have significant effects on the alterations in the structure of agricultural production. However, the spatial optimal solution of production has a complicated relationship with them. The price elasticity has negative and wage elasticity has positive spatial gradients in the market region. Farmers located in the periphery of the market region are not much affected by the proportionate changes occurring in the prices of agricultural capital goods but are more sensitive to the proportional changes in labor wages. Because of a decreasing trend in capital input demand and increase in labor input with distance from the market, capital‐product diminishes with a decreasing rate and labor‐product increases with an increasing rate in the spatial structure of agricultural production. As a result, capital‐labor ratio falls toward zero, which raises profit rate per unit of capital investment especially in the outer part of the market region. The equilibria of optimal production with price elasticity as well as of capital intensity with labor employment (that is, capital‐labor ratio as unity) determine spatial limits of the optimal production zone which is shifted outward subject to the provision of cheap transportation, stabilizing market prices and/or increasing wage rate at the market center. It will help in extending outwardly the optimal spatial limits of capital investment and will mobilize capital resources of farmers in the periphery for efficient and competitive capital‐dominated farming.     

The Location Invariance Theorem in Weberian Space Under Uncertainty

This paper examines the validity of the location invariance theorem in Weberian space under various types of uncertainty. The main results are: Given that the firm's location is constrained to remain at a specified distance from the output market, the optimal location is invariant to any change in product demand if and only if the production function is homothetic for a firm facing demand price uncertainty, or if the production function is homothetic and both inputs are risk-neutral for a firm facing technological uncertainty. Alternatively, given that the distance from the firm's location to the output market is a variable, location invariance occurs for a firm facing demand price uncertainty if the production function is linear homogeneous. In the presence of input price uncertainty the optimal location always varies with a change in product demand. The results can include those previously obtained for linear stochastic location models as special cases and some are new contributions to the literature.     

The Political Economy of Electrical Power Generation

This article examines the procurement practices of Canada s three largest electric power utilities, Ontario Hydro, Hydro Quebec, and B.C. Hydro in terms of their impact on the technological development of the electrical power equipment industry in Canada. The theoretical underpinnings of this analysis are that under certain economic, technical and institutional conditions, procurement as managed by large publicly owned corporations with a high level of technical capacity can be a powerful instrument of industrial innovation. The paper describes how in the face of weakening market power following the twenty-year expansion phase in the industry (1960–80) and global restructuring among electrical power equipment suppliers, the three utilities have been forced to reassess conflicting commercial and technological objectives. The authors point to Hydro Quebec's signing of a recent series of strategic production agreements with key suppliers as an example of a new approach lo procurement through concentrated use of limited market power in critical product areas. The paper concludes that the distribution of risks involved in technology development between buyers and sellers is dependent on market structures. Secondly, the nature of these client-supplier interactions in management of risk will reflect the internal coherence of an organization's commercial and technological strategies.     

Surviving in a Competitive Spatial Market: The Threshold Capture Model

Many facility location decision models ignore the fact that for a facility to survive it needs a minimum demand level to cover costs. In this paper we present a decision model for a firm that wishes to enter a spatial market where there are several competitors already located. This market is such that for each outlet there is a demand threshold level that has to be achieved in order to survive. The firm wishes to know where to locate its outlets so as to maximize its market share taking into account the threshold level. It may happen that due to this new entrance, some competitors will not be able to meet the threshold and therefore will disappear. A formulation is presented together with a heuristic solution method and computational experience.     

Adaptation in cultural industry under conservation pressure: case study of two Chinese embroidery clusters

Abstract

In this study, we explore how tension between ‘culture’ and ‘industry’ can be effectively dealt with in promoting cultural industry, taking the Chinese embroidery sector as an example. The diverging performance of two leading centers of Chinese embroidery production suggests that local adaptive and networking capabilities are essential in creating a new path out of the tension, and these capabilities are largely determined by local openness/flexibility, entrepreneurship, and linkage capacity. In Changsha, cultural conservatism prevails, and the local embroidery sector largely maintains traditional product styles and target customers, sticking to the historic path. It is in question, however, whether such a strong bias toward the high-culture segment of the industry is good for cultural heritage protection in the long run, given that the industry at standstill has faced increasing challenges in sustaining a solid local pool of skilled labor. In contrast, Suzhou’s local embroidery sector has actively responded to the changing market environment, through increased product segmentation and customization as well as intra/cross-industry collaboration. Such a flexible, scale-up strategy has helped the industry attract local talent and meet the market demand, while maintaining space for high-end artistic products.     

RESEARCH BRIEFING: EU accession and the Bulgarian real estate market

Accession of Bulgaria to the European Union (EU) is expected to result in an increase in the prices of all types of real estate as changes are expected to differ across the segments of the national real-estate market. Property prices have been influenced primarily by local demand, government policies and the perception that EU accession is promoting investment. It is likely that prices of flats will further differentiate, the market for office space will stabilize, the provision of infrastructure will importantly influence prices in holiday resorts and of industrial estates, and agricultural land prices will upsurge initially.     

ON THE RELATION BETWEEN USERS' BENEFITS AND THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF TRANSPORTATION ACTIVITIES

ABSTRACT. The addition of output variation benefits to the users' surplus generated by transportation improvements has been subject to debate, and no agreement has been reached. In this paper, the problem is restated at the level of the origins of transportation demand, which can be derived from the information provided by the economic activity. It is shown that a competitive productive environment makes the transportation consumers' surplus exactly equal to the net economic benefits provoked in the products' markets; however, when monopolistic production prevails, the users' surplus may not reflect the benefits to the economy with accuracy. Mixed conditions are also explored and the role of final products' demand elasticity is highlighted. Different styles of welfare analysis are recommended for different market conditions.     

TWO-EARNER FAMILIES IN THE HOUSING MARKET

The 1970's has been a period in which three trends have coincided: housing prices have been escalating, wives have continued to enter the labor force, and legislation prohibiting discrimination in mortgage markets on the basis of sex and marital status has been enacted. In this paper, we examine the role of the two-earner family–one in which both husband and wife work–in the housing market of the 1970's, and the interrelation of this household type with other factors shaping the current high demand for housing. We also speculate on the role of the two-earner family in the housing market of the 1980's. We conclude that two-earner families are in a position to increase their housing outlays in the future, that the continued growth in the number of two-earner families will add to future housing demand, but that many two-earner families may be divorced couples of the future. This suggests that, while there will be a strong impact on single-family home demand, there will also be some restructuring of demand toward rental housing and cooperative/condominium ownership.     

Export-led Technology Development in the Four Dragons: The Case of Electronics

To date, little attention has been paid to the strategies of local firms in bringing about industrialization in Bast Asia. This article focuses on the methods by which domestic firms utilized foreign connections to overcome technology and market barriers in electronics. A simple market-technology model is developed as a first approximation of how domestic technology assimilation relates to export marketing in the four ‘Dragons' of East Asia (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore). It proposes that export demand shaped the pace and pattern of technological progress in electronics in each of the four Dragons. Historical evidence shows that each country used a distinctive mix of direct and indirect export mechanisms to acquire technology and to enter international markets. Foreign buyers, transnational corporations (TNCs), original equipment manufacturer (OEM) arrangements, joint ventures and licensing deals were exploited by ‘latecomer’ firms to their market and technology advantage. Asian firms progressed from simple assembly tasks to more sophisticated product design and development capabilities, travelling ‘backwards' along the product life cycle of traditional innovation models. Today, leading Asian firms invest heavily in R&D and engage in partnerships with TNCs to acquire and develop advanced new electronics technologies. The technological progress of latecomers remains closely coupled to export demand through OEM and other institutional arrangements.     

Inelastic Demand Spectra of Bi-Linear Models for Capacity Spectrum Method and Response of Simple Structures under Near-Source Records

A very useful tool for the preliminary design of structures is the elastic demand spectrum that can be used in the capacity spectrum method. A pseudo-acceleration relationship has to be assumed when constructing a demand spectrum. This assumption results in large errors for long period structures with large damping ratios and the conventional demand spectra require a substitute elastic structure. In the present study, the conventional demand spectra are extended to bi-linear models. Pseudo-acceleration is still assumed but results in acceptably small errors, when a constant viscous damping coefficient for a single-degree-of-freedom (SDF) structure is calculated from the tangent stiffness and the damping ratio is set at 5% in both elastic and yield phases. For nonlinear structures, tangent stiffness dependency of damping force could be acceptable because energy absorption is primarily the result of structural nonlinear deformation. To extend the conventional demand spectra to a bi-linear model, effective period calculated from the secant stiffness has to be used. The use of effective period introduces no approximation because the peak displacement of the SDF structure is computed from nonlinear analysis in the time domain. The method presented in this study is also valid if damping coefficient proportional to initial elastic spectra is used. In this case, the pseudo-acceleration is defined as the base shear coefficient that is required to produce the peak displacement of the SDF structure in a static manner. We present demand spectra of bi-linear models for a number of near-source records from large earthquakes, and spectral ratios of two horizontal components. The effects of different types of ground motion on the response reduction factor due to inelastic deformation are investigated.     

Spatial Price Discrimination in Two-Dimensional Competitive Markets

Intuition suggests that firms that can apply price discrimination make higher profits than firms that are restricted in their pricing policy. In this paper, we show that, in general, this is not the case. In the framework of a two-dimensional spatial model with elastic demand à la Lösch, we further investigate the interplay of transport costs, competition, and price policy. One of our results is that under realistic specifications of parameters each firm gains a monopolistic area in the center of its market that has the same shape as the entire market, but with a convexly or concavely distorted separating line, depending on the extension of the market.     

COMPETITIVE LOCATION UNDER UNCERTAINTY OF COSTS

ABSTRACT. In this paper, we study the centroid problem from competitive location theory for a linear market with uniform demand, assuming that the leader has imperfect information about the follower's fixed and marginal costs. It is shown that the general version of this problem can be formulated as a nonlinear programming problem and the exact solution can be obtained analytically in a special case. A simple strategy is also given for the general problem, and it is proven that this strategy has a guaranteed error bound. It is demonstrated that uncertainty of costs might lead to market failure in the centroid problem, but this disappears if the game is repeated and the firms learn from observing each other's moves. It is also shown that it is possible for the leader to obtain optimal expected profit at a low perceived risk, with only sufficient, and not necessarily perfect, information. These two observations lead to our primary conclusion from the study that although cost uncertainty is a realistic feature of most competitive location models, there are very effective ways of dealing with it.     

PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION,PRICING POLICY AND EQUILIBRIUM*

ABSTRACT. This paper studies the price-location equilibrium of duopolists supplying differentiated goods and competing in a spatial market with elastic demand. We show that a price-location equilibrium exists under all three pricing policies traditionally considered by the literature: f.o.b. mill, uniform delivered, and spatially discriminatory pricing. We also show that firms always cluster at the market center. The second part of the paper studies the endogenous choice of pricing policy. A surprising feature of the resulting equilibrium is asymmetry. The greater the extent to which the goods are substitutes, the more likely is it that one firm will choose f.o.b. pricing and the other price discrimination. Finally, the welfare consequences of the analysis show some interesting trade-offs.     

城市居民休闲度假旅游需求实证研究——以南京为例

我国旅游业正在从观光游览型向休闲度假型转变。运用数理统计分析方法,以南京为例探析对城市居民休闲度假旅游需求进行研究。研究发现偏爱休闲度假的居民在旅游资源喜好、旅游活动偏好、购买行为、信息来源渠道、出游方式等方面与一般居民有着明显差异。据此探讨休闲度假产品的开发,分析未来的休闲度假旅游发展趋势,并提出相应的休闲度假旅游产品开发对策与建议。     

自驾车旅游及其产品的深度开发研究——以广东省肇庆市为例

文章在归纳分析自驾车旅游兴起的社会背景、旅游者行为特征基础上,对广东传统旅游目的地肇庆市自驾车旅游的发展条件、发展现状与存在问题进行了思考,认为肇庆具有许多发展自驾车旅游的有利条件。尽管肇庆自驾车旅游市场已初步形成,但也有一些深层次的问题有待解决,离成熟的的自驾车旅游目的地仍有不少距离。在对肇庆自驾车旅游的市场特征进行调查分析的基础上,文章相对系统地提出肇庆自驾车产品旅游深度开发的若干思路与策略。包括:通过资源整合与区域合作丰富自驾车旅游线路;继续完善公路网络、交通标识与自驾车服务站建设;增强旅游信息系统尤其是网络的预定与服务功能;加快汽车旅馆等经济型酒店及汽车营地的建设;建立保障自驾车旅游发展的长效机制等。     

基于群体心理特征的老年旅游产品谱系构建——以关中地区为例

将心理特征分析引入旅游产品谱系构建当中,是旅游产品开发市场导向型下人本主义思想的体现。本文从感知、情感和情绪、意志和兴趣等方面对老年心理特征进行分析的基础上,从基本层次、提高层次和专门层次的三维视角概括老年群体旅游动机,并从安全性、体验性和参与性三方面总结该群体的旅游偏好。针对旅游动机,结合旅游偏好设计了相应的旅游产品系列,并对每个系列具体旅游产品类型进行选择,得到面向老年群体的旅游产品谱系。以关中地区老年旅游市场为例,通过问题的分析,运用所构建的老年旅游产品谱系对该地区旅游产品深层开发和拓展提出建议。     

Simulating changes in tourism demand: a case study of two German regions

Travel behaviour is shaped by the complex interaction of a variety of societal, economic, ecological and political drivers that undergo rapid changes. This poses continually new challenges on destinations which need to adapt to altering conditions. Significant changes of influencing factors might lead to shifts in tourism flows in temporal and/or spatial dimensions. This study investigates how German tourists’ destination choices develop under changing framework conditions. It furthermore rates the impact of influencing factors such as socio-demographic and socio-economic aspects on changes in tourism demand using an agent-based model. The interactions among 15 million tourists and 109 European destinations are simulated under three different scenarios. Destinations included in the model develop in different ways in regard to tourist arrivals until 2030. The results indicate that the number of tourist arrivals will develop divergently in the investigated regions until 2030 and that some market segments will undergo changes in seasonality: the model shows a growth in arrivals for many city destinations, cultural as well as sports and active tourism destinations. It indicates a trend towards equalisation in the segments sun and sea tourism, city and cultural tourism with a shift from summer months to spring and autumn towards 2030. They furthermore imply that demographic change dominates altering tourism demand in the source market and that related changes in travel preferences are the most urgent challenge for destinations.     

Why Do Suburban Offices Cluster?

The clustering of suburban office space in “office parks,” as well as the larger activity nodes of polycentric cities, has been widespread in recent years. The reasons for this clustering are not well understood, as the footloose nature of firms suggests a variety of patterns might evolve. This paper explores three traditional explanations: economies of scale in the supply of space, demands for access, and face-to-face contact needs of firms. Finding that those explanations do not completely explain the clustering pattern, an alternative explanation is considered, the demand for image or prestige.     

近年来中国旅游开发与管理态势研究

本文对处于产业结构剧烈转型时期的中国旅游业的发展态势进行了较深入的阐述,这一观察主要从旅游区(点)和旅游资源的开发与管理这一特定角度切入,重点从假日峰值压力、旅游目的地营销、旅游规划、旅游产品创新、旅游支持系统等几个方面加以讨论。