‘We Lost on the Numbers,But for Us It's a Victory’: New Caledonia's 2018 Referendum on Self-Determination

On 4 November 2018, more than 141,000 voters in New Caledonia went to the polls to determine the political status of the French Pacific dependency. A referendum on self-determination, the culmination of a 20-year transition under the 1998 Noumea Accord, posed the question: ‘Do you want New Caledonia to accede to full sovereignty and become independent?’

In an unprecedented turnout, 56.67 per cent of voters decided to remain within the French Republic, while 43.33 per cent voted Yes for independence. These figures, with a clear majority opposing full sovereignty, suggest a setback for New Caledonia's independence coalition Front de Libération Nationale Kanak et Socialiste (FLNKS). In reality, the size of the Yes vote has disappointed partisans of the French Republic and opened the way for a second referendum in 2020.

After briefly outlining the 1998 Noumea Accord, the article details the results and participation rates in the November 2018 vote. It then focuses on different aspects of the referendum campaign, including: the role of opinion polling, administration of the referendum by the French state; disputes over electoral registration; international monitoring; key objectives of the anti-independence parties; grassroots campaigning by the FLNKS and the significance of the youth vote. It flags some issues in the aftermath of the referendum, as New Caledonians prepare for the next local elections to be held on 12 May 2019.     

The 2014 Elections in New Caledonia: A Precursor to Self-determination?

ABSTRACT

On 11 May 2014, voters in New Caledonia went to the polls to elect representatives to three provincial assemblies and the national congress. The election results reaffirmed the division between supporters and opponents of independence, as New Caledonians move towards a self-determination referendum scheduled before the end of 2018. The election results confirmed longstanding regional and political divisions. In the rural north and outlying Loyalty Islands, the FLNKS independence movement holds sway. In spite of a united mobilisation by a pro-independence coalition in the Southern Province, three competing anti-independence parties dominate the Southern assembly. The campaign highlighted issues that will dominate political debate in coming years: electoral reforms, economic and fiscal policy, the key role of nickel mining and competing alternatives to ‘exit’ the 1998 Noumea Accord. In the incoming congress, 29 conservative opponents of independence face 25 members of independence parties. This balance of forces in New Caledonia's political institutions and divisions within the loyalist camp means tension will be ongoing as the country moves closer to the scheduled referendum on self-determination – especially as France seeks to maintain its status as a midsized global power.     

The ‘Rebalancing’ of New Caledonia’s Economy

This article assesses the impact of ‘rebalancing’ (ré-équilibrage) policies implemented in New Caledonia following the Noumea Accord in 1998. These policies were designed to redress the disadvantages of the Indigenous Kanak population (both at the political and at the socio-economic level) and to foster Kanak support for a post-Noumea Accord deal with the non-Indigenous population. It outlines the institutional framework of the Noumea Accord and its impact on development policy, exploring the structural dynamics of the New Caledonian economy and the extent of achievements in reducing inequalities. Conventional indicators demonstrate some accomplishments as regards reducing provincial inequalities but this article argues that the goals of rebalancing remain far from achieved and it explores the reasons for those shortcomings. I argue that most difficulties stem from the lack of structural reforms and absence of a shared vision of development. Nevertheless, scope does exist in New Caledonia for fostering balanced development that is environmentally and socially sustainable and better adapted to local specificities.     

New Caledonia Remains French for Now: The Referendum of 4 November 2018

New Caledonia’s 4 November 2018 referendum confronted voters with a divisive choice between independence and continuation of the status quo. It did not offer another potential option of ‘associated independence’, though that had been extensively discussed in the 1980s and rejected by loyalists because it entailed too much independence and by Kanak because there was too much association. This paper reviews the referendum outcome, and examines the controversies about the make-up of the special electorate for that contest and the electoral roll for provincial and French national elections. It argues that 30 years of dialogue about decolonization have not succeeded in reaching agreement on a consensual future and that there is a risk that the political map of New Caledonia remains frozen. What is needed is not further institutional reform or so-called ‘internal decolonization’ but a crossed interethnic majority in Congress, and a halt to French efforts to strengthen the anti-independence demographic and electoral majority.     

The Limits of Influence: Australia and the Future of New Caledonia, 1975 to 1988

From the late 1970s Australian governments (led in turn by Malcolm Fraser and Bob Hawke) expected New Caledonia to become independent. France responded with suspicion. From 1983, however, reformist governments in Australia and France took apparently converging views. But tensions rose because of unrest in New Caledonia and conflict over French nuclear testing. Australia’s limited capacity to influence developments waned further in 1986 when Jacques Chirac became French prime minister and countered the Kanak nationalist movement. Foreign Minister Bill Hayden favoured moderating Australia’s position, but the issue became moot in mid-1988 when the rival forces in New Caledonia agreed to the truce embodied in the Matignon Accords. The different approaches of the Fraser and Hawke governments reflected philosophical differences, the personal stance of key players, influences from their political movements, and the challenges of changing circumstances. Decades later, with a referendum due by November 2018, Australia’s approach is likely to be cautious.     

Australia's Economic Ambitions in French New Caledonia, 1945–1955

ABSTRACT

From 1945, consistent with its broader South Pacific ambitions, Australia sought to strengthen its economic position in New Caledonia. The leaders of the European-descended ‘Caledonian’ community wanted economic autonomy for the territory and improved trade with Australia. Yet the opportunity proved illusory. France remained committed to imperial preference and economic dominance. Its revival was underwritten by Marshall Plan aid, including in New Caledonia. Australia failed to provide enough of the coal that appeared to offer economic influence. In the 1950s the Melanesians gained the vote, and the Caledonians lost political power. Conservative governments in Australia showed less interest than their Labor predecessors. Australia would have welcomed an economically autonomous New Caledonia with close Australian links, but this idea clashed with France's centralist and unitary traditions. In the tension between New Caledonia's geography and its history, France had ensured that history won.     

Tailors-Made: Heritage Governance Customization in Late Modern Canada

Canada is not just a patchwork of varying heritage governance delineated by provincial and territorial boundaries but a maelstrom of contesting and overlapping practices and processes originating from state and non-state actors. Since the 1990s, this patchwork of governance has increasingly diffused into Indigenous and local spheres through the negotiation of formal (treaties, legislation) and semi-formal (memoranda of understanding) agreements. Ideological tensions persist between the design aspirations of resurgent Indigenisms and Canadian late modern state processes. The resurgence of Indigenous capacities and institutions with a heritage management mandate has also created Indigenous jurisdictions not premised in any nation-to-nation agreement.     

Explaining accommodation and resistance to demands for independence referendums in the UK and Spain

This article examines why the UK Government accepted the 2014 Scottish independence referendum while the Spanish Government opposes a similar referendum in Catalonia. Adopting a most similar research design, we argue that the variation is best explained by perceived political opportunities by the two ruling parties. These are embedded in different conceptions of the state and constitutional designs, mostly mononational in Spain and mostly plurinational in the UK but multiple and contested in both cases. In Spain, vote‐seeking calculations incentivise the Popular Party to oppose a referendum, while its mononational conception of the state and the Spanish constitutional design provide a further constraint and a discursive justification for their position. In the UK, David Cameron's accommodating position was based on the view that the Scottish referendum was low risk – as support for independence was minimal – with a high reward: the annihilation of the independence demand. The Conservatives have recently adopted a more restrictive position because seeming political advantage has changed. The findings suggest that independence referendums will continue to be rare events.     

Respondent Understanding of the 1999 Referendum Question on a Reform of the New Zealand Justice System

A referendum question at the 1999 New Zealand general election resulted in a 92% 'Yes' vote in favour of reform of the New Zealand justice system. However, even supporters of the referendum conceded the question was poorly designed and open to different interpretations. To examine these interpretations, we deconstructed the referendum question into five constituent questions and tested these on a sample of potential voters. Support for the constituent questions ranged from 70% to 95%, and subsequent probing revealed that respondents' understanding and interpretation of the key concepts varied considerably. These findings emphasise that survey professionals need to be involved in designing referendum questions and that proposed questions need cognitive pre-testing to ensure they convey their intended meaning and can be understood by voters. A poorly designed question reduces the credibility of the referendum process and threatens the outcome of specific policy initiatives.     

Framing social rebalancing,national identity,and victimhood in Kanaky/New Caledonia

New Caledonia is an island territory located in the French South Pacific. In 2018, the first of three referenda on the island’s sovereignty will occur. Over the next decade, inhabitants of this territory will decide whether to become fully sovereign, maintain their dependence on France, or enter into an independent-association relationship with another state. Through a series of interviews with prominent New Caledonian politicians and secondary sources, this article explores how definitions of victimhood and national identity construction shape the notion of rebalancing. Both loyalist and nationalist politicians argue that the current social inequalities between New Caledonian communities require targeted policies intended to re-balance the populations. Politicians use these victim narratives and national identities to construct imagined communities that advocate for the inclusive or exclusive application of the right to self-determination.     

Scotland's post-referenda futures

In the midst of chaotic Brexit negotiations and the failing political processes of Westminster, the Scottish National Party (SNP) is preparing to call a new independence referendum, arguing that Scotland should not be taken out of Europe against its will. As the SNP begins campaigning for a new referendum, two different visions of Scotland’s independent future emerge: one based on concrete economic and welfare policies championed by the party, the other, an unofficial activist-driven orientation of the future as ‘empty’. The first makes the future tangible, populated with wishful images and achievable goals. The second promises the future as a blank slate, to be authored only after a successful independence vote. These two orientations exist in tension with one another, in continuous negotiation as they are played out on the SNP campaign trail.     

‘Sharing the white man's burden’ Nazi colonial revisionism and Australia's New‐Guinea mandate

ABSTRACT

The September 2014 general elections in Fiji resulted in a decisive victory for Prime Minister Bainimarama and his FijiFirst Party. It indicated a desire for stability on the part of the electorate as well as the popularity of measures such as ‘free’ education and the removal of affirmative action programmes for Indigenous Fijians. The Social Democratic Liberal Party garnered a significant portion of the Indigenous vote through appeals to ethnic identity, but will need to broaden its base in future to have any chance of forming a government. The high voter enrolment and participation reflects a hope for more accountability as well as transparency, in contrast to the arbitrariness of the previous eight years. New oversight institutions and a more expansive bill of rights in the constitution offer some ground for cautious optimism in the face of cynicism about the gap between the government's rhetoric and its actions.     

After independence? The challenges and benefits of Scottish–UK defence cooperation

The Scottish government's white paper on independence, Scotland's future, sets out its defence blueprint following a ‘yes’ vote. It makes clear that its defence plans would be subject to a Strategic Defence and Security Review in 2016, as well as negotiation on the division of assets with London. However, it also provides a strong indication of how it envisages its defence posture as an independent state—a major pillar of which is founded upon strong and continued defence cooperation with the rest of the United Kingdom. Is this a realistic assumption? And, if so, how would it work in practice? Contextualized by the increased emphasis on defence cooperation which sits at the heart of NATO's Smart Defence initiative, as well as the European Defence Agency's ‘pooling and sharing’ programme, the article assesses the benefits and challenges that might be encountered in a defence cooperation agreement between an independent Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom in the event of a ‘yes’ vote in September's referendum.     

Multi-actor Initiatives after Rana Plaza: Factory Managers’ Views

The Rana Plaza factory disaster in April 2013, which resulted in the death of a large number of factory workers and injured many more in Bangladesh's ready-made garment industry, highlighted the sustained failure of the government of Bangladesh to address safety in the workplace. In the wake of the tragedy two significant transnational governance initiatives emerged — the Accord on Fire and Building Safety in Bangladesh (hereafter the Accord) and the Alliance for Bangladesh Workers’ Safety (hereafter the Alliance). For the first time, different key stakeholders worked together to address fire, electrical and structural safety of factory buildings. This study analyses the perceptions of factory managers in Bangladesh regarding the Accord and Alliance agreements. The article argues that although there have been significant breakthroughs in terms of developing a culture of safety adhered to by the government and entrepreneurs, the suppliers have encountered difficulties in implementing these initiatives. The limited support from buyers has posed a major challenge for the sustainability of these two multi-stakeholder agreements.     

More than a storm in a teacup: the defence and security implications of Scottish independence

In September 2014 the people of Scotland will vote on whether to become an independent nation, with the defence and security of Scotland proving to be one of the more vociferous areas of debate. This article argues that defence and security implications of this referendum are far more fundamental than either the ‘yes’ or ‘no’ campaigns have admitted. It makes four points. First, it suggests that the Scottish government's plans for defence and security in NATO and the EU are at odds with its proposed armed forces and that Scotland may well find itself having to make far greater commitments to defence to assure its allies. Second, it argues that a vote for independence will represent a game‐changing event for the remainder of the United Kingdom's defence and security, which will have significant consequences for the United Kingdom's partners and allies in NATO, the European Union and elsewhere. Third, the article contends that even a vote against independence will have a long‐term impact, in that the ‘West Lothian question’ and Scottish support for nuclear disarmament influence the 2015 Strategic Defence and Security Review. Finally, the article highlights how this issue has revealed weaknesses in the think‐tank and academic communities, particularly in Scotland. The independence vote does, therefore, represent ‘more than a storm in a tea cup’ and thus there needs to be far greater engagement with these issues within the United Kingdom and elsewhere.     

Book Reviews

In early 1971, two Canadian unionists travelled to New Caledonia on a technical mission of assistance to the territory's unions. At the airport in Nouméa, however, the territorial authorities refused the unionists entry. For the French government, the interest of the United Steelworkers of America in New Caledonia represented a threat to the stability and competitiveness of the territory's nickel industry. The visit was also seen as a manifestation of growing American influence on New Caledonia's economic and political development at a time when the French were increasingly concerned about the territory's attachment to France. Yet efforts by the territorial authorities in Nouméa to prevent the visit were complicated by other French and Canadian concerns. Neither Canada nor the metropolitan government of France wanted an international incident that might jeopardise France–Canada relations, which were improving slowly after several years of acrimony.     

Working Towards Regional Agreements: Recent Developments in Co‐operative Resource Management in Canada's British Columbia

Canada's experience with ‘regional agreements’ has attracted considerable attention in Australia as a means by which Indigenous people can secure their native title rights to land and sea and ensure they can participate in the development and management of their homeland territories. However, regional agreements implemented in Canada thus far have often taken years to negotiate. To provide a degree of certainty for resource management and decision‐making while the native title claims process is underway, Canadian governments have proceeded to establish interim resource use and management agreements with Indigenous communities. While both governments and Indigenous people stress that interim arrangements do not replace or limit the scope for future claim settlements, it is recognised that the development of such co‐operative relationships will make long‐lasting formal agreements easier to achieve. This paper draws on several recent examples of interim agreements that have been negotiated for the salmon fishery resource in the Skeena River catchment, and considers how these local experiences offer useful approaches for resource management and native title issues in Australia. These examples demonstrate the importance of building shared understandings of resource values and management approaches prior to cementing co‐management partnerships in formal settlements. They also show some of the problems and prospects facing Indigenous peoples in their efforts to benefit from such co‐management agreements.     

Locality,Mobility and Governmentality in Colonial/Postcolonial New Caledonia: The case of the Kouare tribe (xûâ Xârâgwii), Thio (Cöö)

The colonial history of New Caledonia has been one of dispossession, alienation, and racial segregation. Indigenous people did not experience a life of all‐embracing confinement and immobility. Instead, Kanak localities were historically shaped by the interplay of colonial projects, ideas, tensions, power relations, practices, representations, values, norms, and emotions. Based on the example of Thio, located on the south‐east coast of New Caledonia, this article explores these transformations, focusing on processes of localization and mobility in the colonial and postcolonial eras. The first section focuses on the encounter with and the interplay between different organisations in Thio: the missionary, mining, pastoral, and administrative frontiers. The second section explores the multilayered history of the landscape and settlement patterns in Xârâgwii/Kouare (a tribe located in the mountainous part of Thio), and the third section analyses the interplay of locality and mobility since World War II. The final section examines the ‘invention’ of the tribe as part of colonial governmental projects. The article concludes with a brief discussion of the meaning of this evolving dialectic in the current context of decolonization.     

‘Trouble in Paradise“: The perception of New Caledonia in the Australian Press

Australian perceptions of the South Pacific are largely shaped by promotional tourist reports. Australian press coverage of violent conflict in New Caledonia erupting late in 1984, during the Kanak struggle for independence, produced a very different image of one part of the region. The Australian media coverage focused on violent events, used evocative language and dramatic headlines and stressed the threat that violence posed for Australian tourism. In subsequent months tourist numbers slumped and never regained earlier peak levels while press coverage dwindled as violent events became fewer. In New Caledonia the conservative press argued that biased Australian media coverage had encouraged local economic collapse to enable Australia to exert greater hegemony in the region and that the nationalist movement was merely a socialist or terrorist minority and that nationalist sentiments were stirred up by overseas media interest. Inevitable media distortion, through oversimplification in a complex socio-economic context and the lack of continuous coverage, did contribute to a biased perception, whose legacy remained beyond the duration of the period of violence.     

Heritage and separatism in Barcelona: the case of El Born Cultural Centre

This paper explores the ways in which heritage sites at the crux of neighbourhood renewal and redevelopment initiatives in Barcelona have been manipulated to advance Catalan separatist agendas. We focus specifically on El Born Cultural Centre which was officially opened in September 2013 amid heightened calls for Catalan independence from Spain. A former market site, the centre’s key attraction is its archaeology which has been re-imagined and presented to communicate the horrors of war inflicted on the citizens of Barcelona following the War of Succession in 1714. Narratives that emphasise the historical degradation of Catalan political or cultural identity and/or work to reaffirm the distinct and separate nature of Catalan nationalism resonated strongly with the political reawakening of Catalonians in the run up to the 2014 November referendum on independence. The referendum which was subsequently deemed illegal by the Spanish government, and subsequent regional elections were held in 2015. In considering the negotiation of El Born during this drive for independence, this paper suggests that an examination of heritage sites and the ways in which they engage with, or are received by multiple stakeholders, can offer insights into the complexity of separatist campaigns in ethno-nationalist societies.