Punctuated Equilibrium Theory and the Diffusion of Innovations

This article builds on punctuated equilibrium theory to evaluate the diffusion of public policy innovations in the United States. The article argues that punctuated equilibrium theory provides a unifying framework for understating three mechanisms leading to the diffusion of innovations: gradual policy diffusion driven by incremental policy emulation, rapid state‐to‐state diffusion driven by policy imitation and mimicking, and nearly immediate policy diffusion driven by state‐level responses to a common exogenous shock. Drawing upon the Bass mixed influence diffusion model, this research generates measures of the coefficients of external and internal influences for diffusion for 81 public policy innovations that have spread across the United States. The article then evaluates how the policy image and direct participation of the federal government contribute to distinct patterns of diffusion over time.     

Punctuated Equilibrium and the Information Disadvantage of Authoritarianism: Evidence from the People's Republic of China

According to the punctuated equilibrium thesis, government attention allocation alternates between long periods of stasis and dramatic spurts of disequilibrium because democratic institutions enable minority groups to obstruct change. This article presents a critical discrepancy in contemporary China, where punctuated instability is significantly more intense despite a lack of democratic institutions to empower minority obstructionism. Our empirical analysis further reveals that punctuated intensity goes even higher for Chinese regions facing fewer signs of social discontent. We attribute the intensification of punctuated dynamics to an information disadvantage arising from the lack of diverse, independent sources of information under authoritarianism. Our finding contributes to punctuated equilibrium theory by underlining the function of opposition groups not only as obstructionists but also as challengers to policy priorities. By marginalizing these challengers, authoritarian institutions confine attention to known problems, leading to serious delays in the discovery of and adjustment to emerging issues.     

Point Predictions and the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory: A Data Mining Approach—U.S. Nuclear Policy as Proof of Concept

In Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), information processing under the constraints of limited attention and bounded rationality leads to stick‐slip dynamics in policy outcomes. Empirical work in this field often focuses on the macro level. Using the case of nuclear energy policy in the United States as proof of concept, we demonstrate how decisive budget changes in a specific policy subsystem can be linked to attention of Congress and the president. We utilize a mixed‐methods data‐mining approach: Maximum likelihood estimation is used to analyze the distribution of the nuclear energy RD&D budget. Then attention data of both Congress and the president are structured by means of cluster analysis and principal component analysis. Finally, these data are used in a generalized linear model to predict specific budget shifts. The article is designed as a proof of concept: In the case of nuclear energy policy, we are able to predict budget shifts without violating the assumptions of PET. More importantly: we can demonstrate that attention is not only affecting the final policy outcome but also the corridor of the possible.     

Moral Panics and Punctuated Equilibrium in Public Policy: An Analysis of the Criminal Justice Policy Agenda in Britain

How and when issues are elevated onto the political agenda is a perennial question in the study of public policy. This article considers how moral panics contribute to punctuated equilibrium in public policy by drawing together broader societal anxieties or fears and thereby precipitating or accelerating changes in the dominant set of issue frames. In so doing they create opportunities for policy entrepreneurs to disrupt the existing policy consensus. In a test of this theory, we assess the factors behind the rise of crime on the policy agenda in Britain between 1960 and 2010. We adopt an integrative mixed-methods approach, drawing upon a combination of qualitative and quantitative data. This enables us to analyze the rise of crime as a policy problem, the breakdown of the political-institutional consensus on crime, the moral panic that followed the murder of the toddler James Bulger in 1993, the emergence of new issue frames around crime and social/moral decay more broadly, and how—in combination—these contributed to an escalation of political rhetoric and action on crime, led by policy entrepreneurs in the Labour and Conservative parties.     

从信息传播到注意力传播——当代博物馆展示理论的变迁与思考

博物馆作为一个非正式教育机构,通过展示向观众传播文化知识,进行信息灌输是其工作职责.在传统的信患传播模式下,博物馆优先考虑的是传播的内容及其数量的多寡.然而,随着信息社会的到来,注意力成为一种稀缺资源.博物馆要在日益激烈的注意力竞争中实现其社会效益和经济效益,就必须从注意力传播模式中寻找突破.     

从传统到当下:试论官方对传统节日的积极干预

节日作为人类社会一种普遍存在的文化现象,由于它本身的特殊性质,以及与人们的生活、生产安排的密切关系,不仅成为众多学者研究的内容,也成为广大民众关注的焦点。尤其在当下语境中,随着全球化步伐的加快,在全球经济一体化的背景下要保持文化的多样性已成为有识之士的共识。与此相关,一些人从维护和弘扬民族传统的角度出发,针对目前我国传统节日式微、     

加涅信息加工学习理论在对外汉语课堂教学中的应用

对外汉语教学较之传统学科发展相对较晚,有待进一步建设。在这一完善过程中,教育学、心理学的学科理论对其发展有着很好的推动作用。笔者取其一点,着力讨论加涅信息加工学习理论在汉语课堂教学中的应用。     

Government and Governmentality: Using Multiple Approaches to the Analysis of Government

This article analyses a single case in the application of government authority to illustrate a central analytical problem for political science--what is meant by 'government'--and uses two divergent analytic approaches. The established 'liberal instrumentalist' framework is contrasted with the 'governmentality' approach, derived from Foucault, which stresses the complexity of the processes through which government is 'assembled' from a complex of institutions, practices and ways of thinking. The article analyses the regulation of motor vehicle repairing in New South Wales in terms of these two approaches, and shows that each addresses some aspects of the process better than others. It argues that this means that each needs to be deployed, mobilises the distinction between the 'vertical' and 'horizontal' dimensions of government, and suggests ways in which political science can be strengthened by the 'governmentality' approach.     

从阿拉善旗专员到军事专员:南京国民政府介入蒙旗地方政治的尝试

为防止日本侵略势力的渗透,南京国民政府创设了阿拉善旗专员制度。因专员在派驻过程中,遭遇层层阻碍,最终被迫改置为军事专员,权责缩减。专员制度作为南京国民政府介入阿拉善旗地方政治的首次尝试,其尴尬境地也反映了在缺乏稳定环境与足够控制力的条件下,边疆政治整合所面临的困境。军事专员虽远未实现其设置的预期目的,但客观上有利于加强中央与阿拉善旗地方联系,从而有效地维护了边疆主权与统一。     

从第四点计划到和平队:美国对发展中国家援助理论与实践的转变

肯尼迪政府组建和平队,以志愿者的形式,向不发达国家提供所谓“中等人力资源”,进行技术援助,实际上是对战后美国对外援助工作反思的结果,同时也为美国对外援助注入了新的内容。它所涉及的更为深层的考虑,则是广大不发达国家未来的发展道路问题,即这些国家以什么样的方式实现现代化,是以美国为代表的资本主义发展模式,还是以苏联或中国为代表的社会主义发展模式。肯尼迪政府希望,通过和平队的工作,向第三世界国家展示美国的现代化经验和技术,诱导第三世界国家走美国式的现代化道路。     

从总务制到次长制--论伪满洲国政治体制的傀儡性

日本帝国主义在伪满洲国实行“以总务厅为中心”的统治方式,以达到严密控制伪满政权的目的,通过总务制把伪满政府完全变成了傀儡。伪满洲国政权的行政运作,就是通过总务厅、次长制来实现的。在日本政府的殖民侵略下,经关东军司令官到伪国务院总务长官,总务长官到各部总务司长（次长）,各部总务司长（次长）到各省总务厅长（省次长）,由省总务厅长（省次长）再到各县参事官（副县长）,形成由上至下的殖民统治体系。     

清至民初嘉定宝山地区分厂传统之转变--从赈济饥荒到乡镇自治

本文通过揭示赈灾这样的特殊事件及与“分厂”相关连的地方惯习的变化 ,勾勒出有清至民初嘉定、宝山“分厂”制度的确立和衍化过程 ,在此基础上探讨了“厂董”职能的转化以及传统的乡镇管理模式与清末民初地方自治之间的关系 ,指出在清初救荒活动中划分的以市镇为核心的“厂”的管辖区 ,后来逐渐演变成事实上的地方行政区划。至清末民初 ,尽管“厂域”界限纷争不清 ,但该地的地方自治区域还是完全按照原来的“厂域”面积拟定的。     

论社会信息化的影响与冲击——从当代历史进程到世界史研究

20世纪中叶开始的社会信息化已成为有必要加以研究的重大历史现象.社会信息化的由来有其特定历史发展阶段中的技术、理论和认知上的背景及动因;社会信息化自身不仅在当代世界史中据有一席之地,而且已渗透到社会发展的各个方面;社会信息化进程给历史研究的对象、资料、理论、方法和手段等都打上深刻烙印.在现今信息时代,对当代世界史,进而对整个世界史展开深入研究时,不能无视社会信息化及其作用的存在.