Electoral Disproportionality and Bias Under the Alternative Vote: Elections to Australia's House of Representatives

Studies of electoral disproportionality and bias under Australia's alternative electoral system have mainly relied on the two-party preferred (2PP) vote totals for all electorates, irrespective of whether these are needed to determine the election outcome there. We argue that separate analyses should be undertaken for two groups of electorates – where the determination is made using the first-preference (FP) votes and where the 2PP redistributed votes are needed because no candidate wins a majority of FP votes, illustrating this with an analysis of the 2007 House of Representatives election results.     

Components of partisan bias originating from single-member districts in multi-party systems: An application to Mexico

We extend the estimation of the components of partisan bias—i.e., undue advantage conferred to some party in the conversion of votes into legislative seats—to single-member district systems in the presence of multiple parties. Extant methods to estimate the contributions to partisan bias from malapportionment, boundary delimitations, and turnout are limited to two-party competition. In order to assess the spatial dimension of multi-party elections, we propose an empirical procedure combining three existing approaches: a separation method (Grofman et al. 1997), a multi-party estimation method (King 1990), and Monte Carlo simulations of national elections (Linzer, 2012). We apply the proposed method to the study of recent national lower chamber elections in Mexico. Analysis uncovers systematic turnout-based bias in favor of the former hegemonic ruling party that has been offset by district geography substantively helping one or both other major parties.     

Party registration choices as a function of the geographic distribution of partisanship: a model of `hidden partisanship' and an illustrative test

The Public Choice literature has identified conditions in which voters in multi-candidate contests would have an incentive to vote strategically rather than vote for the most preferred candidate or candidates. In the US, where party registration and party primaries play a critical role in the electoral process—especially in states with closed primaries—the existence of multiple layers of elections across constituencies can induce strategic falsification of party registration that is tied to the geographic distribution of electoral strength. Following V. O. Key, we should expect that a long history of one party dominance in local elections should encourage voters to register in the party whose elections are most determinative of electoral choices, even if that is not the party with which they most identify. However, in many states, while politics may be dominated by one party locally, there may be real two-party competition for at least some offices at the state level and for the presidency.We use a `natural experiment' to view the link between party registration and voting for president and obscure judicial offices in order to test the hypothesis that, for whichever party is the minority party in the local unit, party registration will understate the voting support in presidential or other statewide elections, where that party's candidates have a realistic chance to win. In the modern South this hypothesis can be shown to imply that the relationship between Republican party registration and vote shares for Republican candidates for president or statewide office ought to be curvilinear. To test this and other related hypotheses, we examine data on political units (e.g. counties) with considerable variation in party registration and concomitant variation in the extent of one-party dominance of local politics by looking at county level data from North Carolina for the presidential elections and obscure judicial elections in 1984 and 1996. As hypothesized, for the North Carolina data the relationship between party registration and voting can best be fit by a quadratic function, but the strength of the quadratic term is much less for the 1996 data, reflecting the increase in Republican registration and the success of local GOP candidates in the 1990s.     

A Critical Note on ‘The Rise of Illiberal Democracy’

Almost a decade ago, Fareed Zakaria published an article claiming that ‘illiberal democracies’, i.e., countries combining the presence of free and fair elections with the absence of constitutional liberalism, were on the rise in the present; and were beckoning as a new species of democracy in the future. In this research note, I revisit and reassess Zakaria's claim. On the basis of a simple conceptual critique – that it is logically necessary to treat the two components of liberal democracy as different attributes, conceptually independent of each other – I reach an equally simple empirical conclusion: illiberal democracies were not really on the rise in the 1990s and they have decreased rapidly in the 2000s. The latter finding even comes out using Zakaria's own, arguably flawed, conceptualization.     

The Constitution and Democracy in Victoria: Westminster on Trial

This article provides a broad overview and critical appraisal of the major changes to the role and rationale of government and public administration in Victoria brought about by the Kennett Liberal‐National Coalition government (1992–99). It does so in order to revisit and highlight the fading relevance and viability of the Westminster system of 'responsible government' in the constitutional systems of the States. We show how the Victorian Constitution provides very few restraints upon a government seeking to undermine civil and political rights, weaken the Opposition, marginalise contestatory institutions and restrict information. Against the Westminster system, we defend a republican constitutional arrangement that is able to maintain the contestability of public power. To this end, we suggest a range of workable reforms designed to strengthen democracy and to improve the accountability of public power, particularly that of the political executive.     

Geography and Election Results: Disproportionality and Bias at the 1993–2004 Elections to the Australian House of Representatives

The Alternative Vote system used for elections to the Australian House of Representatives is generally believed to disadvantage the Australian Labor Party in contests with the Liberal and National parties. However, most analyses on which such conclusions are based over-simplify the situation by not separating out the translation of votes into seats according to whether the election outcome in a district is determined using the first-preference or two-party preferred (2PP) votes. Analyses of bias at five recent elections which recognise that separation find little bias against either party in the districts where the determination used the 2PP votes (i.e. no candidate received a majority of the first preferences), but considerable bias in those where the outcome was decided on first-preferences. Furthermore, that bias was not in one direction, but rather favoured the largest party in each of those contests. The reason for this is identified in the geography of support for the two parties, which produces the equivalent of a ‘cracked gerrymander’ in sufficient districts to have a significant impact on the outcome.     

Late Holocene Human Expansion into Near and Remote Oceania: A Bayesian Model of the Chronologies of the Mariana Islands and Bismarck Archipelago

Since the investigations of Spoehr in the 1950s, most researchers have accepted a date of ～3500 BP/1500 BC for the initial human settlement of the Mariana Islands in the western Pacific. The relationship of this early expansion beyond Island Southeast Asia, characterized by Lapita-like pottery, to the appearance of Lapita in Near Oceania, generally was either given little thought or largely ignored. The Lapita settlement of Near Oceania is almost universally regarded as the initial expansion of Austronesian speakers into the Pacific, followed a few centuries later by a rapid migration to the east into Remote Oceania. More recently, however, radiocarbon evidence from several sites suggests that initial late Holocene expansion into the Pacific occurred in the Mariana Islands. This hypothesis needs critical evaluation. To this end, we created site- and region-level Bayesian calibration models. Results estimate that initial Lapita occupation of the Mussau Islands in the Bismarck Archipelago occurred between 3535 and 3234 cal BP (95% probability), which is 50–385 years (95% probability) earlier than the initial settlement of the Mariana Islands, dated to 3230–3085 cal BP (95% probability). Additionally, settlement of the Mariana Islands was either coeval or later (?66 to 254 years [95% probability]) than Lapita expansion out of Mussau into the greater Bismarck archipelago between 3397 and 3115 cal BP (95% probability). Radiocarbon datasets from these regions are hampered by problematic samples, and we anticipate that additional reliable radiocarbon dates will refine these estimates.     

What Objects Know: Circulation,Omniscience and the Comedy of Dispossession in Victorian It-Narratives

Modern self-possessing subjects must learn how to alienate parts of themselves economically – their labour, ideas, recorded voices, photographed faces – without alienating themselves psychologically. Victorian it-narratives provide object lessons for such subjects: they tell the stories of their owners, suggesting that inalienability need only be imagined – in the shape of talking umbrellas, feathers, and needles – to be effective. Object narrators also enact a form of omniscience unavailable to human narrators. Rather than traversing the consciousness of characters, they more ‘realistically’ simply over-hear the innermost thoughts of their owners. They circulate among a much wider range of subjects than do the narrators of mainstream fiction. Royals, gypsies, aristocrats, thieves, actors, and shopkeepers are witnessed intimately and accurately by their possessions. Their circulation is comic: they knit the social world together in collecting the stories of their disparate owners. They suggest that the subjects who are most like objects in Victorian Britain and its empire (women, the colonized, slaves, children, the poor) have a specific power: a certain omniscience, and therefore the power to confer, contain and preserve inalienability. Silas Wegg, of Our Mutual Friend, has suffered radical dispossession – his leg belongs to someone else. He is the modern subject par excellence, resolutely optimistic about the inalienability of his leg, which he refers to as ‘I’. Wegg, like the object narrators this essay discusses, suggests to us the necessary porousness of the subject–object boundary given the self-possession of liberal individuals. That boundary has become more porous since the Victorian period: we now alienate our DNA, organs and infants. It is the disavowal of this permeability that marks the great divide between then and now.     

The Democratic Party and the restructuring of the Italian party system

Abstract

Out of a quickly performed merger between the Left Democrats and the Daisy, a new party has made its appearance in Italy: the Democratic Party (Partito Democratico – PD). In the summer of 2007 three candidates, Walter Veltroni, Rosy Bindi and Enrico Letta campaigned in order to convince sympathizers and supporters of that, yet non-existing party, that they were worthy of the office of Secretary of the PD. The election of Veltroni contributed to the already existing tensions within the centre-left governmental coalition that led to the demise of Prodi's government and to early elections. In April 2008, though receiving 33 per cent of the vote, the Democratic Party suffered a serious defeat. This article explores the reasons of the defeat and analyses its consequences on the restructuring of the Italian party system and the future of the Italian political system. Unless the Democratic Party is capable of finding an adequate organizational model and of expanding its electoral support beyond the areas of the traditional entrenchment of the former Communist party, the centre-right seems destined to guide Italian politics for some time to come.     

‘The Epitheatrical Cartoonist’: Matthew Somerville Morgan and the World of Theatre,Art and Journalism in Victorian London

This article examines the vibrant cultural milieu inhabited by one of Victorian Britain's most famous cartoonists, Matthew Somerville Morgan. Morgan is well-known as the cartoonist who attacked Queen Victoria's withdrawal from public life (and her associations with John Brown), and the lifestyle of Albert, Prince of Wales, in the short-lived rival to Punch: the Tomahawk. Likewise, his post-1870 career in New York as cartoonist of the ‘Caricature War’ over the 1872 Presidential elections, and involvement with ‘Buffalo’ Bill Cody have been well-studied. However, his involvement with the world of the 1860s Victorian stage – and the social circles in which he moved – have not been given close attention. This broader social, cultural, and economic context is essential to understanding Morgan's role as a cartoonist-critic of politics, class, gender and art in Victorian Britain. Special attention is given to the ways in which Morgan's work as a theatrical scene-painter informed his other pursuits, including his political cartoons for Fun, the Comic News and the Tomahawk. So central was the theatre to Morgan's life story that he may be appropriately described as an ‘epitheatrical’ figure. Indeed he is one of the most spectacular exemplars of the interconnected worlds of journalism, high art and theatre in Victorian London. The theatre provided him with the artistic and journalistic connections needed to raise himself above his lower-class origins; to move in ‘clubland’ and fashionable bohemian society; and to win an influential place in the key political and cultural debates of his age.     

We will be known by the tracks we leave behind: Exotic lithic raw materials,mobility and social networking among the Côa Valley foragers (Portugal)

The aim of this study is to establish different socio-cultural models based on lithic raw material sourcing integrated with regional rock art distributions to infer social behaviours within the context of central Iberian Upper Palaeolithic societies. Specifically, we focus on Upper Palaeolithic hunter–gatherer mobility and social interaction in the Côa Valley. This study relies on a knowledge of regional geology and field work to identify the sources of the lithic raw material found at Côa Valley Upper Palaeolithic sites. We expose the context of use and discard of flint, which is naturally absent from the region, and other local materials. From this, we present a GIS based analysis concerning space, time and least-cost paths travelled. This analysis, along with the environmental data available, forms a baseline to evaluate different anthropological models on hunter–gatherer lithic use, mobility, and social networks. We conclude with a three-level model for social interaction, in the context of aggregation activities between different social meta-groups, which involves embedded procurement, long-distance raw material exchange, and symbolic community, reflected in the largest known open-air Upper Palaeolithic rock art concentration.     

First absolute dating of Andean hunter-gatherer rock art paintings from North Central Chile

We report the first absolute dating for rock paintings by Andean hunter-gatherer groups. Analysis by Raman spectrometry of remains of black paintings from the center-north of Chile (30° lat. S) allows for the identification of carbon as the raw material. Radiocarbon dating situates these paintings between 1623–1431 BCE and 80–240 ACE, dates that are supported by other lines of independent evidence. These results are consistent with proposals that suggest the appearance and popularization of rock art in various places in the Andes for the temporal transect of 3000–1000 BCE. Finally, these new datings are added to the scant corpus of absolute dates for rock art that exist in South America.     

Surge and Decline: The Impact of Changes in Voter Turnout on the 2010 Senate Elections

Enthusiasm among Republican voters and a lack thereof among Democrats was cited by many post-election analyses as a contributing factor to the outcome of the 2010 midterm elections. Analysis of the aggregate county level voter turnout and results of the 2010 Senate races provides strong evidence of (1) a sharper decline in turnout from 2008 to 2010 in areas in which Barack Obama did well in 2008 and (2) a significant relationship between turnout changes from 2006–2010 and 2008–2010 and changes in the vote share of Democratic Senate candidates in 2010. In addition, a test of the referendum theory of midterm elections shows that declining presidential approval ratings, but not economic indicators, are predictive of the Democratic vote share in 2010. Despite previous findings that midterm and presidential electorates do not fundamentally differ, this analysis of the 2010 Senate elections provides evidence that differential turnout among core and peripheral voters is an important part of the explanation for the surge that occurs in presidential elections and the subsequent decline in voter participation during midterms.     

The Dynamics of the Electoral Geography of the Five Star Movement: The Role of Territorial Area and Municipality Size

ABSTRACT

The aim of the article is to trace the evolution of the Movimento 5 Stelle (Five Star Movement [M.5.S.]) over the last four national elections (the 2013 and 2018 general elections and the 2014 and 2019 European elections). In particular, our goal is to understand how the electoral support for the party changed, in the context of the broad transformations of the Italian electoral geography. In order to accomplish this goal, we investigate the explanatory role of the spatial dimension on electoral support, specifically in terms of geographical zone and municipality size. The M.5.S. is also compared with the two parties that reported the best results in the last European elections: the Lega (League) and the Partito Democratico (Democratic Party [P.D.]). Our results show that the recent European elections do not represent a turning point in the (electoral and geographical) history of the M.5.S.: its territorial rooting in the south of the country and in medium-sized municipalities are present from the 2014 European elections onwards. Interpretations and implications of these findings are discussed in the conclusions.     

Riforma e Rinascimento,Protestantism and Catholicism in Antonio Gramsci's writings on Italian history, 1926 – 35

Abstract

This article readdresses Gramsci's use of Italian history, focusing on his judgement that the Italian Renaissance marked the start of a specifically Italian course of historical failure because it led directly to the Counter-Reformation, the Risorgimento and Fascism. It shows that Gramsci's political strategy after 1923 – on the need for a mass socialist movement – informed his historical opinions. His view of a regressive Renaissance contrasted the dominant historiographical consensus that saw it as the start of European modernity. Gramsci conceptualized modern European history according to a Reformation–Renaissance dichotomy that also determined his general sense of culture. By contrasting Catholic Italy (whose Renaissance had failed to lead to a Reformation) with the Protestant north (whose general Renaissance had formed a harmonious couplet with the Reformation), Gramsci reveals that his single greatest debt as a historian was to Weber rather than Marx or Croce.     

Enzootic diseases and extinction of mammoths as a reflection of deep geochemical changes in ecosystems of Northern Eurasia

The results of investigations performed on more than 23,500 mammoth bones and teeth in Northern Eurasia from 2003 to 2013 with the aim of revealing traces of enzootic diseases are presented here. The study focused on the Late Pleistocene “beast solonetz” sites (i.e. mineral licks/oases) of Western Siberia: Shestakovo-Kochegur (25.9–17.8 ka BP) in the Kemerovo region, Volchia Griva (17.8–11 ka BP) in the Novosibirsk region and Lugovskoye (16.5–10 ka BP) nearby Khanty-Mansiysk. Additional sites studies included sites (30–10 ka BP) from other regions of Northern Eurasia also with mass mammoth remains (Gari, Berelyokh, Krasnoyarskaya Kurya, Kraków Spadzista Street, P?edmostí, Dolní Věstonice, Milovice and others). The results suggest that just at the end of the Pleistocene, large herbivorous mammals experienced a powerful geochemical stress which would manifest as mass destructive changes of bones due to enzootic diseases caused by mineral deficiency. Remains characterized by destructive changes are common and prevalent in all collections. Maximum damage was discovered in the bones and teeth of Mammuthus primigenius Blum. The most typical signs of osteodystrophy were osteoporosis, osteofibrosis, osteomalacia, osteolysis, cartilage atrophy, exostoses and fractures, resulting in the formation of false joints, ulcers and friction grooves on articular surfaces. The results of the paleoecological analysis suggest that the larger part of Northern Eurasia at the end of Pleistocene was extremely unfavourable for the existence of megafauna. The disruption of the abiotic relationships caused by the cardinal transformation of geochemical landscapes could have become the main reason for the wide-spread enzootia and, finally, the extinction of the mammoth.     

Contestability ‘theory’, its links with Australia’s competition policy,and recent international trade and investment agreements

This article examines how contestable market theory (contestability) has come to reconfigure the economic and regulatory concept of competition in order to enhance the compatibility of Australia’s economy with international trade and investment agreements. Australia has recently negotiated and signed a raft of bilateral, plurilateral and regional agreements, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and the Australia–China Free Trade Agreement. In order to ensure that Australia meets its obligations and commitments to these agreements, two key advisory bodies—the Harper Panel on Competition Policy Review and the Financial System Inquiry—made recommendations, the majority of which were accepted by the government, to ready Australia’s competition governance and economic policy for greater global integration. Such impact is dependent on, among other things, how domestic competition policy meshes with the free market ideology underpinning such international agreements, which favours the breakdown of barriers to markets. Less well known is the role of contestability in radicalising ideology as it countenances monopolisation and privatisation in the guise of market access by justifying the substitution of actual competition with the mere threat of competition. The article concludes that the monopoly power of transnational corporations will be enhanced through the acquiescence of governments to the new governance regime of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, which, supported by domestic policy, is set to redraw competition policy in the light of contestability theory.     

Politicisation but not Responsiveness: Preferences and Experiences of New Zealand Councillors

This article reports the responses of New Zealand local government councillors concerning their preferences for, and experiences of, council officer employment; and the values councillors perceive that council officers adopt in their dealings with councillors. This study received responses from slightly fewer than one hundred councillors in New Zealand local government out of 247 and therefore, the results presented here should be viewed as indicative only because of the small sample. Nevertheless the survey found that 54 per cent to 77 per cent would prefer to have influence over council officer employment, with council officers displaying deference to the authority of councillors. Councillors prefer to have frank and fearless advice but they prefer not to be under pressure from council officers to accept that advice. This ensures that they obtain the type of support they need to carry out the tasks and responsibilities that have been conferred on local authorities; and they – the councillors rather than council officers – remain in control of the council affairs.     

The man who never was? The Italian transition and 2008 election

Abstract

The implications for the co-called Italian transition of the 2008 election initially seemed significant – but have since become increasingly uncertain as Berlusconi's conflict of interests has risen higher up the political agenda. This underscores the pertinence of asking about the sense in which the notion of ‘transition’ is actually applicable to the Italian case at all – bearing in mind that it describes a process now supposedly underway for some 17 years; and bearing in mind that its end point can seemingly not be identified (though by definition ‘transition’ implies movement between two points). Discovering if the term applies to the Italian case and if so whether 2008 has brought its conclusion nearer requires exploring if the political protagonists that have emerged from the election as the most significant players – the Popolo della Libertà and the Partito Democratico – have sufficient commonality of view, sufficient desire and sufficient power to complete a process of constitutional overhaul. The evidence suggests that while they have the view and the desire, there are significant limitations on their power. The election might potentially have been a watershed in the so-called Italian transition in the broader sense of system performance, aside from formal constitutional change. Here too, however, the evidence points away from the idea that 2008 represents a real sea change – though the chances seem good that it will come to be perceived as such.     

Archaeological Site or Natural Marine Community? Excavation of a Submerged Shell Mound in Ninigret Pond,Rhode Island

ABSTRACT

Submerged shell midden sites and natural shell deposits can have similar characteristics and can be difficult to distinguish archaeologically. We excavated two test units from a large (at least 35 m×70 m) submerged shell mound in Fort Neck Cove in southern Rhode Island to assess whether it was natural or cultural in origin. This mound had been recognized as a potential archaeological feature as early as the 1970s. Excavation, radiocarbon dating, and subsequent laboratory analysis of excavated materials suggest that the mound was a natural oyster reef rather than a submerged archaeological site. No artifacts were found; there was no clear evidence for human modification of any shells; small species that would not have been targeted as food were present; and δ¹³C values of oyster shells from the mound were consistent with freshwater input into their growth environment, suggesting that they grew in an estuarine environment that did not exist prior to the inundation of the ponds. The stratigraphically oldest radiocarbon date we could obtain (430–190 cal BP, 2σ range), from 70 cm below the pond floor, placed deposition of shells at least 3,000 years after the inundation of the pond. The excavation methods that we used and the process of testing, irrespective of whether the feature is cultural, are valuable contributions to the methodological literature on submerged site archaeology and help provide insight for other researchers working to discern natural from cultural shell midden sites.