Moral Panics and Punctuated Equilibrium in Public Policy: An Analysis of the Criminal Justice Policy Agenda in Britain

How and when issues are elevated onto the political agenda is a perennial question in the study of public policy. This article considers how moral panics contribute to punctuated equilibrium in public policy by drawing together broader societal anxieties or fears and thereby precipitating or accelerating changes in the dominant set of issue frames. In so doing they create opportunities for policy entrepreneurs to disrupt the existing policy consensus. In a test of this theory, we assess the factors behind the rise of crime on the policy agenda in Britain between 1960 and 2010. We adopt an integrative mixed-methods approach, drawing upon a combination of qualitative and quantitative data. This enables us to analyze the rise of crime as a policy problem, the breakdown of the political-institutional consensus on crime, the moral panic that followed the murder of the toddler James Bulger in 1993, the emergence of new issue frames around crime and social/moral decay more broadly, and how—in combination—these contributed to an escalation of political rhetoric and action on crime, led by policy entrepreneurs in the Labour and Conservative parties.     

Importing Concepts from Biology into Political Science: The Case of Punctuated Equilibrium

From the 1950s to the 1990s, the “incrementalist” model dominated theories of policymaking. Since Baumgartner and Jones's Agendas and Instability in American Politics was published in 1993, however, the “punctuated equilibrium” model, borrowed from evolutionary biology, has supplanted the incrementalist model. But what do such alien models do to the discipline of political science, and what does the discipline do to the models, when they are thus imported? In this article, I first discuss the functions of concepts in political science, then discuss and analyze the creation and meaning of the concept of punctuated equilibrium in biology, then trace its transformation as it was initially adopted by political scientists, then analyze the manner in which its meaning developed and altered as it grew in popularity within the discipline, and finally assess its value to political science now. I will conclude with some general observations about the process of importing concepts from outside the discipline.     

Punctuated Equilibrium and Bureaucratic Autonomy in American City Governments

Several recent applications of Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET) have yielded compelling findings linking institutional design and change distributions, yet, much more work needs to be done to understand institutional arrangements that make punctuated processes more or less likely. In responding to the recent call for more research on unraveling particular mechanisms through which bureaucracy moderates the odds of policy punctuations, this research explores the potential of bureaucratic expertise and professionalism in fostering rational decision making, and thus the stability in change dynamics. One important feature of urban government receives close attention: the position by professionalized, trained bureaucrats in municipalities (city manager and chief administrative officer) and the effects of their discretion on altering municipal budgetary change distributions. Analysis of a novel dataset of fiscal policy changes, charter and census information of city governments in the State of Michigan, 2005–11, suggests city governments, on average, produce change patterns that conform to the expectations of PET; more importantly, it reveals that heightened levels of managerial discretion can have a significant implication for helping cities experience less abrupt, punctuated budget changes. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these results for PET, policy change dynamics, and the design of city-governing institutions.     

Punctuated Equilibria and Budgets in the American States

In this article, we examine long-term state budget trends to find evidence of punctuated equilibrium. We use the American states as a broad set of institutional variation with which to examine the nature of policy change through the lens of incrementalism and punctuated equilibrium theories of policymaking. The strength of this article is its sensitivity of variations in policy outcomes across time (18 years), across space (50 state institutions), and across issue space (10 budget categories). This research advances the characterization of policy outcomes by employing a quantitative measure that is both less sensitive to outliers and one that characterizes budget distributions on a simple numeric scale. Our general findings are: (i) state budget categories are interdependent; (ii) state budgets are generally punctuated; but (iii) to varying degrees: Thus, considerable stability (indicated by tall peaks) and punctuations (represented by fat tails) are a central feature of policy outcomes in the American states. This result confirms the logic of punctuated equilibrium theory, but raises future questions about the impact specific variations in institutional costs have on policymaking across the 50 states.     

Punctuated Equilibrium Theory and the Diffusion of Innovations

This article builds on punctuated equilibrium theory to evaluate the diffusion of public policy innovations in the United States. The article argues that punctuated equilibrium theory provides a unifying framework for understating three mechanisms leading to the diffusion of innovations: gradual policy diffusion driven by incremental policy emulation, rapid state‐to‐state diffusion driven by policy imitation and mimicking, and nearly immediate policy diffusion driven by state‐level responses to a common exogenous shock. Drawing upon the Bass mixed influence diffusion model, this research generates measures of the coefficients of external and internal influences for diffusion for 81 public policy innovations that have spread across the United States. The article then evaluates how the policy image and direct participation of the federal government contribute to distinct patterns of diffusion over time.     

民国时期国人对公共卫生建设的认识

民国时期国人对公共卫生建设的认识是：一、从防治疫病、保障民族健康、发展社会经济、提高国家地位与声誉等角度认识到公共卫生建设重要性;二、从国情与公共卫生建设内部要素的关联性提出了公共卫生建设的方针,并从公共卫生的性质与应办事项的角度对公共卫生建设的目的和内容进行了阐述;三、认识到当时进行公共建设在社会经济、卫生观念、政治组织、人才与科学技术等方面存在的困难因素;四、从提倡西医、卫生教育、人才培养、卫生经费、卫生技术与设备、社会建设同步性、社会共同参与性、国际合作等方面阐述了从事公共卫生建设的方法和手段。这些认识虽有局限性,但也具有积极的历史作用与现实借鉴意义。     

Authoritarianism,revolution and democracy: Egypt and beyond

The pro-democracy Arab popular uprisings have been spontaneous, but perhaps not all that unpredictable. They have come against the backdrop of a growing gulf between the rulers and the ruled, political repression, social and economic inequalities, demographic changes, unemployment and foreign policy debacles. Although the uprisings began in Tunisia, it is the case of Egypt that illustrates the situation more compellingly and the impact that it has had on the rest of the Arab world. It is not clear at this stage what will be the ultimate outcome. But what can be said with certainty is that the Arab peoples have set out on a long journey in pursuit of genuine self-determination. The journey will be arduous and unsettling for the Arabs and outsiders, but this has to be treated as part of a transition from a dictatorial past to a politically pluralist future.     

国外中华人民共和国史研究的发展进程

在对中华人民共和国历史的研究中,国外的相关机构、学者及其研究成果是一个有别于国内学界的研究群体和范围。国外中华人民共和国史研究以20世纪70年代末为界大致可分为两个阶段,他们开展研究的历史背景复杂,研究成果显著,形成了一定的研究规模,既有各国研究的个性和特点,也呈现出某些共性的问题。     

“中华人民共和国地方史工作研讨会”纪要

盛世修史是中华民族的传统 ,我们今天研究和撰写中华人民共和国国史和地方史 ,正是要通过不断总结历史经验 ,坚持真理 ,修正错误 ,使我们的事业不断发展。地方史研究与国史研究一样 ,不是权宜之计 ,国家有关部门和各级政府应将地方史工作纳入社会科学研究的全面长远规划当中 ,给予充分的重视 ,建立相关常设机构 ,并在经费上予以保障。目前地方史工作缺乏统一的指导和规划 ,应在统一规划的基础上 ,加强地方史工作的交流     

Pet Sounds: Subsystems,Regimes, Policy Punctuations,and the Neglect of African American Farmers, 1935–2006

Punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) has reoriented the study of public policy and American politics in particular. In this study, we documented how a policy punctuation that appears to take hold at the macro level of the polity in the form of a policy regime has difficulty penetrating subsystem politics. We drew on subsystems theory, PET, and the latest work on policy regimes to document the resistance of the agriculture subsystem to efforts to add a civil rights dimension to agriculture policy between 1935 and 2006. We concluded that the issue evolution of agricultural support programs, and their insulation from civil rights policy, is a prime example of how subsystems use negative feedback to resist change.     

Topping Off and Bottoming Out: Setting Budget Priorities Through Executive Power

This article examines the role of the institutional power of executives in public budgeting; specifically, how executives change spending on particular budget items. Leveraging extant theories of the policy process concerning preference expression, attention, and institutions, we argue that executives deepen large cuts and boost large increases in budgetary change. The strictures of the budgetary process force trade-offs for executives in preference expression such that increases to preferred categories typically require decreases in other categories. Literatures in public policy and political representation suggest that all executives would like to express fiscal preferences, thereby contributing to categorical budget oscillations; however, not all executives are created equal. We employ quantile regression to examine whether the institutional strength of governors determine cuts, stasis, and expansion in spending across all budget functions in the American states between 1985 and 2009. Our model includes a host of political and economic variables found in the literature of fiscal policymaking, such as partisanship and divided government. The desire to change policy may be widely shared across executives, but we find that the ability to “top off” categorical increases and bottom out categorical decreases is a function of an executive's capacity to call attention to preferred categories via agenda-setting power and to secure those changes via veto power. The findings show strong governors are well positioned to influence public policy through the budgetary process.     

Constitutional Blemishes: American Alcohol Prohibition and Repeal as Policy Punctuation

Historical explanations for the American “noble experiment” with alcohol prohibition based on individual conspiracies, cultural changes, social movements, or self‐interested bureaucracies are partial and unsatisfying. Recent advances in punctuated equilibrium theory shine new light on this historical enigma, providing a more persuasive account of the dramatic episodes associated with both constitutional prohibition and its repeal. Through longitudinal analysis of a unique data set reflective of early twentieth century public alcohol control sentiments, this article suggests that, as but one of a range of potential alcohol policy options, national alcohol prohibition was hardly a foregone conclusion. The ultimate adoption of prohibition over competing alcohol control alternatives, as well as its eventual repeal, can best be understood with reference to particular feedback processes inherent in the institutional structure of American policymaking, which readily account for both the mad dash for prohibition and the widespread clamor for repeal, which have traditionally eluded historical explanation.     

新中国成立以来的元史研究

新中国成立以来的半个多世纪中,通过我国三代蒙元史专家的努力,取得了许多成绩。其中最主要的是唯物史占了主导地位,元朝不再被看成“漆黑一团”,现在普遍认为元朝是一个比较开放的朝代,在经济、文化、民族关系等方面对中国历史的发展有过独特的贡献;同时,研究者发掘了许多新史料,使元史研究向纵深发展。今后的元史研究任重而道远,在史料整理、区域和专题研究、民族研究等方面还有许多工作要做。     

国民参政会与国民政府的治藏政策--以治藏议案为中心

1938-1948年间的国民参政会是这一时期中国的重要民意机关,共历四届。本对历届国民参政会的各项治藏议案作了整理和分析,认为这些议案涉及当时治藏问题的各个方面,其中的合理成分对于今天仍有一定的参考价值;这些议案虽然仅有一部分被采纳,但对国民政府的治藏政策仍产生了重要影响。这些议案的提交既有藏族参政员,也有其他民族、地区的参政员,表明了全国各地、各界人民对西藏同胞的关心,并促进了藏族同胞与各族人民的交流,在一定程度上推进了藏区的社会进步,维护了边疆稳定和国家统一。     

也谈“中华人民共和国”作为国名的原因——兼与潘焕昭老师商榷

《党的文献》2007年第3期发表了潘焕昭的文章《"中华人民共和国"国名考》(以下简称潘文),第5期又发表了宋月红的文章《"中华人民共和国"国名补考》(以下简称宋文),对"中华人民共和国"提出的时间、命名的由来和作为国名的原因等问题进行了探讨,宋文既是对潘文观点的补充,同时在一些观点上也进行了商榷。笔者认为,潘文提出选择"中华     

Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai at the dawn of the People's Republic

As the founders of the People's Republic of China, Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai dedicated themselves to the construction of the new country. Mao Zedong drew up the overall strategies for China and Zhou Enlai was responsible for their concrete implementation. They had good working relations. At the same time, Mao and Zhou had different opinions and disagreed on certain issues, as it was natural to have different perspectives and thinking. Despite sharing a common objective to carry out a socialist modernization, they slightly disagreed on priorities.     

论中华人民共和国史研究

中华人民共和国史是指1949年10月1日以后共和国范围内社会及社会与自然界关系的历史。从经济社会发展道路或目标模式的角度来观察,国史大致可以划分为五个时期,其主线至少有三条。研究国史,需要明确现代史与当代史的关系,尤其要处理好它与中共党史的关系。认清什么是国史的主流,关键在于如何看待改革开放前的历史,特别是那段历史中发生的失误和错误。国史研究具有较强的阶级性、政治性和意识形态性,但这并不必然削弱它的学术性、科学性。国史研究除了具有史学各分支学科所共有的传承文明、咨政育人的功能外,还有"护国"的重要作用。在今天,只要尊重客观事实,遵守学术规范,当代人不仅可以写好当代史,而且可以在国家机构主持下写好国史。     

From There to Here: Punctuated Equilibrium to the General Punctuation Thesis to a Theory of Government Information Processing

In this introduction to the Policy Study Journal's special issue on punctuated equilibrium, we provide an overview of the approach, how it evolved, some of the major critiques directed at it, and some of the major developments it has spawned. We argue that the most important aspect of a theory or framework is not whether it is right or wrong, but the extent to which it is fruitful; that is, the extent to which it stimulated further research. Finally, we review the articles in this issue and put them in context.     

老一代革命家在中华人民共和国开国过程中的历史贡献

中华人民共和国建国初期 ,中国共产党老一代革命家成功地解决了国体、政体、经济建设方针、民族政策和对外政策等一系列重大问题 ,当时制定的相关政策不仅符合那时中国的国情 ,使中国得到稳定和发展 ,而且经得起时间的检验 ,为我国此后的发展奠定了一个坚实良好的基础。过渡时期总路线同样是在当时工农业生产发展的基础上提出和实施的 ,是得到了绝大多数人民的拥护的。“后之视今犹今之视昔” ,我们要以历史唯物主义的眼光看待历史 ,研究国史、写好国史。     

对编纂资料性国史书的几点思考——以《中华人民共和国日史》为例

中共十一届三中全会以来,随着中华人民共和国史研究的广泛开展,一批体例各异、详略不一的资料性国史书相继出版。四川人民出版社2003年8月推出的卷帙浩繁的《中华人民共和国日史》(以下简称《日史》),就是其中之一。该书以年分卷,逐日记事,上自1949年10月1日起,下至1999年12月31日止,共计50卷。编纂者称该书是国家断代性质历史,