The Spending-Service Connection

This research tests the relationship between state and local spending for health and hospitals, a set of health service measures, and three final policy outcomes—low birthweight infants, infant mortality, and child deaths. The analysis includes several proxies for service demand—state resources, percentage of single-teen births, and percentage of the population without health insurance. The multiple regression equations also incorporate a measure of federal spending on health and an indicator of state spending for Medicaid. This first stage of the analysis can account for only a limited amount of variation in per capita state and local health and hospital spending. Health expenditures, however, are prominently related to health workers per 10,000 population, while hospital spending buys hospital beds. The final step in the analysis uses path models. The results show that neither spending nor the intermediate-level health outputs (including a measure of prenatal care) are significantly related to the final three outcome variables. Single-teen births is the dominant influence in the final equations.     

Twin Burials in Prehistory: A Possible Case from the Iron Age of Germany

Compared with other mammals, multiple births are rare in humans. The attitude towards multiple births varies widely among cultures. Although expected to be present, evidence for twin burials from prehistoric times is scarce. However, knowledge about the attitude of ancient societies towards twins, as expressed for instance by funeral practices, would provide interesting insights into the spiritual world of these people. In 2001, an Iron Age settlement site was excavated near Ochtendung, Germany. The skeletons of two perinatal individuals were found in situ in shallow depressions close to post‐holes of a house pit in the western part of the settlement. The individuals appear to have been deposited in the depressions without special care, as one of them was face down. No archaeological findings were associated with the skeletons. Age at death of the two individuals was estimated to be between 36 and 40 weeks' gestation. The cusp patterns of the lower left first molars exhibit a similar configuration of the disto‐buccal cusps in both individuals, probably a division of the hypoconid. The investigation of the bones and the teeth revealed a similar stage of development of the individuals and supports the hypothesis of closely related individuals, probably twins. An interpretation as ‘building sacrifices’ seems unwarranted, considering the careless deposition of the bodies and the absence of any grave goods. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is sibling rivalry fatal?: siblings and mortality clustering

Evidence drawn from nineteenth-century Belgian population registers shows that the presence of similarly aged siblings competing for resources within a household increases the probability of death for children younger than five, even when controlling for the preceding birth interval and multiple births. Furthermore, in this period of Belgian history, such mortality tended to cluster in certain families. The findings suggest the importance of segmenting the mortality of siblings younger than five by age group, of considering the presence of siblings as a time-varying covariate, and of factoring mortality clustering into analyses.     

Enforcing ‘Progress’: A Story of an MDG 5 Indicator and Maternal Health in Malawi

Considering the importance of metrics in current systems of global health accountability, this article analyses the dynamics behind a maternal health indicator. To achieve the target of Millennium Development Goal 5 (MDG 5) and increase the proportion of births attended by ‘skilled health personnel’, some districts in Malawi in 2010 introduced information campaigns to promote births in hospitals and a fine to punish mothers who delivered outside of biomedical health institutions. The study is based on ethnographic research in one Malawian village. While many mothers described the ill treatment and bad conditions in maternity wards, most women still started to publicly sanction institutional births. This apparent contradiction can be understood by looking at the positions and motivations of the various actors who participated in the performance of MDG 5 in the village and how their projects became tied to the focus on improving the indicator. Rather than expressing a demand for the existing maternal health services as such, the ethnography suggests that the actors’ practices expressed hopes and claims to wider material improvements in a context of inequality. The article highlights dynamics that are concealed if we restrict the analysis to one of biopower, and expands the purview of the study of metrics into the spaces which indicators are intended to represent.     

A Shift‐Share Method for the Analysis of Regional Fertility Change: An Application to the Decline in Childbearing in Italy, 1952–1991

This paper applies shift‐share analysis, a tool often used in economic geography and regional science, to regional fertility change in Italy, 1952–1991. During this post–World War II period, Italian fertility declined by over 33 percent, but the decline varied widely from region to region. Moreover, the demographic originations of the decline in births are not fully understood. Using birth data for nineteen Italian regions, this analysis is able to break regional change in births into three main components: a national effect, a cohort effect, and a regional differential effect, which in turn provide insight into the roots of fertility change at the regional level. These three components of change are then further disaggregated to account for the differences between changes due to population change and those related to actual changes in birth rates (the number of children produced by each woman). Strong regional differences between the north and south of Italy are demonstrated.     

THE ESTABLISHMENT OF CIVIL REGISTRATION IN SCOTLAND

An act for registering births, deaths, and marriages was passed for England and Wales in 1836. Scotland, despite evident support for the principle of civil registration there, did not obtain equivalent legislation until 1854 - a paradox that has yet to be fully explained. Eight unsuccessful bills preceded the Scottish act, and this article explores the reasons for their failure. Although the Scottish churches and municipal authorities broadly favoured vital registration, their objections to particular clauses concerning the nomination and payment of registrars, the imposition of fees for registration and penalties for non-registration, and the provision of new administrative facilities, repeatedly impeded the bills' progress through parliament. More importantly, four of the bills were linked to measures for reforming the marriage law, which were so offensive to Scottish sensibilities that the registration bills were damned by association. Only by altering these contentious clauses and eschewing any interference with the law of marriage did Lord Elcho's bill of 1854 succeed. The lengthy gestational period preceding the Scottish legislation did, however, result in the compulsory registration of births and deaths, unlike in England, and secured a greater breadth of detail in the Scottish registers.     

Child Poverty in the American States: The Impact of Welfare Reform,Economics, and Demographics

This article identifies the predictors of child poverty rates at the state level before and after the adoption and implementation of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996. The analysis shows that the most important state‐level factors that influence child poverty rates are demographics, the health and viability of the state economy, and often the generosity, inclusiveness, and quality of state welfare programs. States with large numbers of black citizens, and those that score highest on infant mortality, teen births, births to unmarried women, children living with a parent without a high school degree, and children living with a single parent have the highest rates of child poverty. Child poverty rates are lowest in states that suffer less unemployment, and in wealthier states. States that score higher on per capita personal income, tax revenues, and taxable resources have lower child poverty rates. While specific “tough” welfare policies adopted by some states seem to have no impact on child poverty rates, we tested for the first time a sophisticated measure of the overall quality of state welfare programs. The analysis reveals that the global quality of a state's welfare programs is often an independent predictor of child poverty. States with the most generous, inclusive, and supportive welfare programs have done the best job of lowering and containing child poverty.     

A Tale of Two Cities: A Decomposition of Recent Fertility Changes in Shanghai and Hong Kong

In the past 20 years, Hong Kong and Shanghai's total fertility rates (TFR) have undergone drastic changes: first declining and then rebounding. We use a decomposition method to assess changes in the TFRs of these two cities during the period 1990–2010. During the period of decline from 1990 to 2000, the decrease in marital fertility rate (MFR) was the major cause behind Shanghai's TFR decline; the decrease in nuptiality and MFR were equally responsible for the decline in Hong Kong's TFR. During the 2000–2010 period, although the decline in nuptiality exerted downward pressure on TFR, both cities experienced an increase in TFR mainly due to an increase in the MFR. Analysis of the difference in TFR between the two cities in 2010/2011, also reveals that Hong Kong's marriage delay has a negative impact on fertility and it is the higher MFR that leads to a higher TFR than Shanghai's TFR. It also shows that a reduction of first- and second-order births is equally responsible for Shanghai's lower MFR. Despite the one-child policy in Shanghai, some couples continue to postpone their first births, while others have even chosen to be childfree (a preferred term to ‘childless’). The tempo distortion is diminishing more prominently in Hong Kong, while the decline in fertility aspiration adds much uncertainty to future fertility trends in Shanghai.     

BOOK REVIEWS

The author considers three methods of counting maternal deaths, and hence of calculating maternal mortality levels, in the nineteenth century. The first method counts maternal deaths classified in contemporary statistical publications. The second method examines nineteenth-century death registers for records of maternal deaths. The third method identifies maternal deaths through family reconstitution. The author finds that each method, in isolation, leads to underestimating maternal mortality levels because maternal deaths were often misregistered or misclassified under nonmaternal causes and were often not associated with live, registered births, as required for family reconstitution.     

ENTREPRENEURSHIP,INFORMATION, AND GROWTH

We examine the contribution to economic growth of entrepreneurial marketplace information within a regional endogenous growth framework. Entrepreneurs are posited to provide an input to economic growth through the information revealed by their successes and failures. We empirically identify this information source with the regional variation in establishment births and deaths. To account for the potential endogeneity caused by forward‐looking entrepreneurs, we utilize instruments based on historic mining activity. We find that the information spillover component of local establishment birth and death rates have significant positive effects on subsequent entrepreneurship and employment growth for U.S. counties and metropolitan areas.     

An elasticity analysis of the effectiveness of pronatalist measures in Taiwan

The total fertility rate (TFR) of Taiwan has remained below the replacement level 2.1 for past thirty years. Currently, 16 of its 22 counties and cities have TFRs below 1.3, with TFRs in middle and southern Taiwan even below 1. In the recent decade, various pronatalist policies have been adopted in Taiwan to cope with the low fertility issue. However, little is known about the effectiveness of these policies. In order to identify the group(s) of women that should be targeted to increase the TFR effectively, we have constructed a stochastic model to perform an elasticity analysis. The results show that changes in marriage rates among women aged 25–29 years would have the largest impact on the TFR, with an elasticity value of 0.32. This means that every 1 per cent increase in the marriage rate of women aged 25–29 may increase the TFR by about 0.32 per cent (i.e. an increase of about 2.6 children per 1000 women). The TFR is also very sensitive in responding to changes in the marriage rate and parity-1 fertility rate of 30–34-year-old women, with elasticities of 0.19 and 0.16 respectively. The divorce rate has a small but negative impact on the TFR. Also, the possible contribution of third- and higher-order births is insignificant. These findings suggest that policies aimed at increasing the marriage rate among women in their late twenties and early thirties, and supporting first births of women in their early thirties, are likely to raise Taiwan’s fertility rate effectively.     

Why do Mothers Harm their Babies? Evolutionary Perspectives

Young conspecifics are killed in many animal species, often by unrelated males. The role that females — particularly mothers — play in harming infants is often overlooked, as it appears an evolutionary paradox. Life-history theory offers potential explanations, as females are under pressure to time births optimally, produce an optimal number of offspring and secure paternal investment. Furthermore, socio-cultural circumstances across human societies may favour sex-specific infanticide. These constraints can lead mothers to terminate pre- or post-natal investment in current offspring. Incorporating evolutionary theory in policy making may offer opportunities to assess which measures are likely to reduce the rate of maternally committed infanticide.     

Cleft Lip Case in a Middle Bronze Age Young Man from Altai,Russia

Oral cleft (OC) is a common congenital anomaly in humans, which occurs in approximately one per 700 live births. However, cleft skulls are found relatively seldom in archaeological specimens, especially for the bc period. Mortality of infants with OC was apparently high because of breastfeeding difficulties and culturally sanctioned rejection of them in the past. This paper presents one of the most ancient cases of OC in Eurasia. The finding comes from the Middle Bronze Age pastoralists' cemetery in Altai, Russia. The skeletal remains have been radiocarbon dated to 1883–1665 cal bc . Cranial and dental measurements, computed tomography and radiography have been used to examine this malformation. The facial sculpting reconstruction has been performed to visualise the ante mortem appearance of the cleft face. Besides, δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N isotope analysis was used for a comparative study of the diet of the cleft individual. It has been established that a young man from Altai was affected by complete bilateral cleft lip and alveolus, which is a very rare form of typical OC. This defect is associated with dental anomalies such as hypodontia, microdontia, and ectopia as well as with dysmorphology of the facial complex outside the cleft area, including mild hypertelorism, hypoplasia of nasal bones and antheroposterior maxillary deficiency. Furthermore, aplasia of the frontal sinuses and the sacral spina bifida occulta have been observed. These findings are consistent with clinical data indicating strong correlation between development of a major defect and multiple minor anomalies. The results of the study also suggest that there was tolerant attitude towards the facial deformities among the ancient Altai pastoralists. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SJOT after Twenty Five Years

ABSTRACT

Although it is often assumed that there was continuing conflict between Ishmael and Isaac during their lifetimes, (and therefore, continuing conflict between their descendants as well) the text of Genesis refutes this in-terpretation. Instead the biblical text reveals close connections between their lives. These parallel passages include intersections between the boys’ moth-ers, (Hagar and Sarah); the boys’ births, and early days; threats to each of their lives; the strange behaviors of their mutual father Abraham; events at the time of their greatest danger; and finally additional parallels between the lives of Ishmael and Isaac.     

SPATIAL IMPACTS OF AGGLOMERATION EXTERNALITIES*

ABSTRACT This article examines the extent to which agglomeration economies in one location affect employment growth and establishment births, using data from the Dutch province of South‐Holland. The data are of particular interest because they represent a census, rather than a sample, of all establishments and the location of establishments can be pinpointed to within 416 (postal) zip code areas averaging less than 6 km² in size. Results suggest that agglomeration economies positively affect employment growth and the location of new establishments, but with the possible exception of manufacturing, this effect dies out quickly with distance. Thus, the main finding is that for many industries, agglomerative forces may well operate at a geographic scale that is smaller than a city.     

On the Sources of Instability in the Rank-Size Rule: Some Simple Tests of Gibrat's Law

While the implications of the Simon model of urban growth, e.g., the rank-size rule, have been explored in numerous papers, the assumptions of that model have not, to my knowledge, been subjected to empirical verification. This paper represents an initial attempt to do so, emphasizing those sources of variation in the growth of cities typically singled out in Simon's verbal statements of the model: births, deaths, rural-urban, urban-rural, and urban-urban migration. It is found that over the recent past the assumptions concerning these components are all violated and violated in the direction of upward curvature away from the log-linear relationship between city size and rank predicted by the model, an upward curvature which we in fact observe.     

Effects of residential exposure to steel mills and coking works on birth weight and preterm births among residents of Sydney, Nova Scotia

The Sydney Tar Ponds in Sydney, Nova Scotia, Canada, have been referred to as the most contaminated industrial site in the country. Area residents, aware of the contamination for close to 25 years, are very concerned about their health: past, present and future. In particular, they are concerned about cancer; this is followed closely by reproductive health concerns. The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence and determinants of birth weight and preterm birth among residents living in proximity to an industrial site contaminated with a mix of industrial wastes arising from a former steel mill and coking works (the Tar Ponds) in Sydney, Nova Scotia, Canada. A telephone survey was administered to 500 randomly selected women living in proximity to the site to document reproductive histories. The respondents reported 904 live birth pregnancies occurring in Sydney. The mean birth weight reported for live birth pregnancies was 3,391 g (standard deviation: 570). The reported prevalence of preterm births was 7 percent. Linear regression analyses showed a reduction in birth weight of approximately 85 g among residents in a zone estimated to have higher levels of deposition of airborne effluent from the site. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed a decrease in the risk of preterm birth as residential distance from the site increased (odds ratio 0.65, 95 percent confidence interval 0.42, 0.98). These data suggest that community exposure to industrial contaminants had some, but little, impact on reported birth weights in this sample of respondents. The apparent increase in risk for preterm births suggests further investigation may be warranted, particularly in light of community concerns. Follow‐up investigations using validated birth records and more sensitive measures of environmental exposure could be used to confirm the findings and further explore the intra‐urban variation in health outcomes. These findings underscore the importance of ongoing clean‐up efforts in Sydney.     

Convict bastards, common-law unions, and shotgun weddings: premarital conceptions and ex-nuptial births in nineteenth-century Tasmania

This article uses reconstituted family data from birth, death, and marriage registers to measure ex-nuptial fertility and premarital pregnancies in nineteenth-century Tasmania. It also examines the extent to which convict origins of European society on the island caused a departure from English norms of family formation behavior, during a period when men greatly outnumbered women. Illegitimacy was high during the convict period. From the mid-1850s, after the convict system collapsed, levels of ex-nupital births were relatively constant until the end of the century, as indicated both by the illegitimacy rate and by the proportion of marriages associated with prenuptial births. By the end of the nineteenth-century, rates of illegitimacy and prenuptial conceptions in Tasmania were well within the range of those of contemporary English-speaking populations.     

Social change and sexual mores: a comparison between pre‐20th‐century Norway and 20th‐century Botswana

This article compares pre‐20th‐century Norway and 20th‐century Botswana—two settings separated by time and space but sharing a sharp rise in non‐nuptial births. The comparison seeks to create a synergetic analytical effect by combining firsthand, experience‐near field data from Botswana with solid historical analyses of bastardy in Europe. This radical comparison provides a perspective that highlights the importance of treating “culture” not as a residual category, but as an integral part of everything social. This implies that there is a need not only for a proper sociocultural contextualization of localities, but also for an analysis of extra‐local power structures as fundamentally cultural, reflecting not only bureaucratic and political concerns but also values and existential perspectives.     

Estimating Historical Total Fertility Rates for Australia and Its States

Abstract.

Australian Bureau of Statistics Total Fertility Rate (TFR) statistics are available from 1921 for Australia, and for census years between 1947 and 1966 for the states, and then on an annual basis from 1971. Using historical, statistical publications, annual TFRs for Australia and the states dating back to federation in 1901 were calculated directly in years where data are available and estimated indirectly via the standardized fertility ratio in other years. For some periods where direct TFR estimation was applied, age-specific births used in the numerators of fertility rates must be estimated from partial data. Combined with Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the authors’ estimated TFRs contribute an uninterrupted time series of national and state TFRs for Australia from 1901 to 2011.