An analysis of population and social change in London wards in the 1980s

"This paper discusses the estimation and projection of small area populations in London, [England] and considers trends in intercensal social and demographic indices which can be calculated using these estimates. Information available annually on vital statistics and electorates is combined with detailed data from the Census Small Area Statistics to derive demographic component based population estimates for London's electoral wards over five year periods. The availability of age disaggregated population estimates permits derivation of small area social indicators for intercensal years, for example, of unemployment and mortality. Trends in spatial inequality of such indicators during the 1980s are analysed and point to continuing wide differentials. A typology of population and social indicators gives an indication of the small area distribution of the recent population turnaround in inner London, and of its association with other social processes such as gentrification and ethnic concentration."     

UN Population Division's Methodology in Preparing Base Population for Projections: Case study for India

Preparation of the base population plays a substantial role in the accuracy of projections. This paper reviews analytical strategies involved in the preparation of the UN World Population Prospects to reconcile existing discrepancies between data sources and derive robust estimates of population counts, distribution, and demographic changes. The case study of India is used to illustrate the challenges and benefits of using a cohort-component population projection approach in reconstructing its population between 1950 and 2010, including the preparation of bias-free population counts and distributions by age and sex; estimation of consistent fertility and mortality trends; and integration of all demographic components for obtaining a reliable base population for projections.     

Population studies

Contributions to the study of migration, fertility and mortality are discussed in this literature review article. Characteristics of migrants and the social and economic impact of migration are mentioned as well as temporal or spatial trends in fertility, research on the family and the household, secular changes in fertility patterns, and theoretical developments. Also covered are mortality variations and the relationships between fertility and mortality.     

Population geography

The author reviews recent changes in population research from a geographical perspective. "The deaths in 1990 of two of France's most distinguished demographers, Alfred Sauvy (1899-1990) and Jean Bourgeois-Pichat (1912-90)...seem an appropriate starting point from which to review progress in population research in the early 1990s....Relative to the lifespans and works of Bourgeois-Pichat and Sauvy, it is possible to discern progress in population studies as a whole and population geography in particular. Advances in technical aspects of measuring mortality, fertility and migration have been most marked, as have attempts to inter-relate these demographic processes. Progress towards explanation of population-related phenomena has been slower. Advances have not been towards building more sophisticated general theories, but towards new and more insightful forms of explanation." The author then summarizes other research literature on fertility, migration, and population subgroups. The geographical scope is worldwide.     

Population studies

A number of studies have been published about the population change in New Zealand between 1936 and 1986. During this time an intellectual and demographic revolution also took place simultaneously. From 1961 and 1986 the population increased from 2.4 million to 3.3 million mainly because of Polynesian immigration, and the elderly and females also increased. The Maoris became urban. Mortality stayed stable, but fertility declined to below replacement level in the 1980's. Murray Wilson (1988) analyzed the relationship of fertility and mortality in terms of a post-transitional (developed) society like Australia or the European norm of a 2-children family. In his view the youth culture, television, and female aspirations greatly influenced childrearing. Daniel Noin (1988) examined the current state of geographical research on mortality from a methodological point of view finding wide differences in mortality in Quebec, Brussels, Paris, and London attributable to culture. Mosley and Chen (1984) argued that social, cultural, and economic factors to mortality are mediated by individual, household, and community variables. Jones and Moon (1987) dealt with medical geography in the context of the consumption of health care and disease ecology. Momsen and Townsend (1987) addressed the role of women in developing countries stating that gender is socially created and it examined the worldwide subordination of women. In the 1980's a host of other authors have also touched on the subject of the demography of gender analyzing discrimination against female children, unmarried American women, and single parent families. Yet Fahey (1988) stated that gender was only regarded relevant by Australian geographers as a demographic variable.     

Population geography

The author reviews current trends in the study of population geography and identifies a movement of the subdiscipline during the 1980s toward a possible redefinition as spatial demography. He then outlines the main research topics pursued by population geographers during this period. The geographical scope is worldwide.     

HOW WELL DID PAST UN POPULATION PROJECTIONS ANTICIPATE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN SIX SOUTH-EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES?

This paper analyses the accuracy of the United Nations’ population projections since the late 1950s for six South-east Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. The study uses available projected and estimated age-structured data as well as published assumptions on fertility and mortality trends. A decomposition of the total projection errors into base errors (wrong estimates of demographic conditions at the beginning of projection interval) and change errors (wrong assumptions about the trends) shows that the base errors have generally been decreasing over time presumably as a consequence of improving demographic monitoring systems. The change errors, however, do not seem to decline over time. This seems to be due to a number of country-specific cultural and political factors whose effect was not anticipated as well as to a lack of good theories with predictive power. These findings suggest the need to give more explicit attention to the treatment of uncertainty in future population projections.     

Population Change and Regional Development in China: Insights Based on the 2000 Census

The People's Republic of China conducted its fifth population census in November 2000. This paper draws from that census and recent data to examine national and regional demographic changes in China over the past two decades. Nationally, the impact of fertility decline on rates of population growth, age composition, and household size is investigated. Regional population trends include the rising population share of the eastern region as a result of population growth due to migration and in response to the widening economic gap between coastal and interior China. Demographic differentials between the eastern region and the rest of China (i.e., in proportion of working-age population, household size, sex ratio, and levels of urbanization and educational attainment) suggest that migration is playing an increasingly important role in shaping regional population distribution and that the acceleration of uneven regional development poses a major challenge to policy makers. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, J61, O15. 4 figures, 5 tables, 52 references.     

Towards the Geographies of the 2001 UK Census of Population

A single geographical base has traditionally been created for each census of population in the United Kingdom, aimed primarily at organizing the enumeration task. The subsequent use of this enumeration geography for diverse purposes has been problematic but unavoidable. This paper examines how new digital spatial data and GIS technology are making possible the creation of separate geographies of the 2001 Census for data collection, validation, output, specification and use. The paper explores the implications of these changes for the development of a national spatial data infrastructure and for geographical research involving the census more generally.     

Maritime and Underwater Cultural Heritage in South Africa: The Development of Relevant Management Strategies in the Historical Maritime Context of the Southern Tip of Africa

South Africans have a long association with water. It has provided a source of food, a medium for trade and a catalyst for migration and development. The country??s geographical position as a crossroads of maritime trade between Europe and the East means that its history is inextricably linked to the history of the rest of the world. The result is a multi-faceted representation of sites, objects and mythologies related to water and maritime heritage that reflect not only local historical and social development, but global cultural change as well. Given the importance of South Africa??s underwater cultural heritage (UCH), managers have grappled with management principles, ethics and theoretical models in an effort to produce and enforce heritage legislation that is relevant and effective. This paper outlines South Africa??s maritime context from 1.5 million years ago until the present, summarises legislative and mitigation developments over the past half century and provides details of current trends in maritime archaeology and UCH management at the southern tip of Africa. Training programmes and public awareness are keys to this strategy to bring UCH and maritime archaeology into the mainstream and counter treasure hunting and looting of this rich, friable resource.     

Voters on the move: The political effectiveness of migration and its effects on state partisan composition

Recent population forecasts issued by the U.S. Census Bureau suggest that by 2030 Sunbelt migration could result in two-thirds of all Americans living in the South and West. What's more, 30% of all Americans could live in California, Texas, and Florida (U.S. Census Bureau, 2005). Regardless of whether such high levels of continued Sunbelt migration occur or other patterns emerge, population movement will have electoral implications as the composition of migration streams change the balance of party identifiers at both origins and destinations. To illustrate how migration streams can exhibit very different levels of ‘political effectiveness,’ this research substantively addresses three key issues under-examined in the current literature: 1) the ability of migration to both reinforce and dilute party strength, 2) the changes in partisanship at the origin and destination of migration streams effected through processes analogous to ‘packing’ and ‘cracking’ in electoral redistricting literature, and 3) the importance of migration selectivity. This research uses an innovative, albeit far-from-precision method to suggest how recent U.S. migration trends may portend changes in Republican and Democratic partisanship. Using 2000 Presidential election exit polls by state, along with 1995–2000 PUMS migration data, individual party identification is inferred from individual migrant characteristics. This research calls attention to and argues for research to address the highly complex relationships of migration with electoral geographies.     

National and Regional Population Trends in Azerbaijan

An American specialist on urbanization and population dynamics in the countries of the former Soviet Union examines changes in Azerbaijan's population revealed by analysis of that country's first post-Soviet (1999) census and official 2002 population estimates. Particular attention is devoted to the ongoing conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, in terms of its effects on total population size (mortality and refugee flows into and out of the country) and the internal distribution of population within the country (involuntary migration of internally displaced persons). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 2 figures, 4 tables, 44 references.     

Africa's population and family planning dynamics

The historical and current demography of Africa in this discussion focuses on the context of population policy, contraceptive use, reproductive behavior, polygamy, and economic impacts. Sub-Saharan Africa countries have the highest rate of population growth in the world. 50% are aged under 20 years, and 20% are aged under five years. Urban areas are growing at the fastest rates in the world (5-6% annually). Population density remains low, except for areas where there is high soil fertility. Many African countries recognize the need for population policies. The most important donor to Africa, the World Bank, has pressured African governments to adopt family planning (FP) programs. A major World Bank study has shown that more FP services are desired by African women. Family expenditures for the 1980s for FP were estimated at $100 million annually, of which $53 million was provided by donors. Further expansion in the program is needed. The World Bank targeted contraceptive use at 25% of African married couples. Except for Egypt and North African countries, contraceptive use is around 3-4%. Another perspective on population reduction is to expand programs for child spacing and postnatal nutrition of mothers and infants. There has been a failure to turn health systems around to low-cost preventive health, particularly in rural areas. Infant mortality must be reduced before fertility will decline. Population growth can be slowed by changing the status of African women (high social status and recognition are associated with high fertility), age of marriage, child spacing, agricultural productivity, and nutrition. Demographic data on Africa have only become available during the past 25 years. African demographers are in short supply and require training abroad. Demographic data gaps and reliability problems are offset by the recent availability and quantity of survey data. Historical demography has produced conflicting results. Although some investigators, such as Ester Boserup, argue that population pressure results in agricultural innovations, Africa has yet to experience this phenomena. The youthful composition of the population guarantees continued population momentum. Fertility is enhanced by the cultural emphasis on perpetuating lineage and high fertility. Changes in reproductive behavior will depend on major social changes for women.     

Population geography

The status of population geography as a field of study in Australian universities is first discussed. The author then reviews studies on various aspects of Australian population geography, including fertility, mortality, international migration, internal migration, and the geography of aging populations.     

Don't throw out the baby with the bathwater: Estimating fertility from subadult skeletons

Recent research interest has focused on the bioarchaeology of children. Although paleodemography is essential for accurate reconstructions of lifestyle and health in past populations, currently there is no published technique for estimating fertility and life expectancy at birth for skeletal populations in which adults are under‐enumerated. This paper provides a formula to predict Gross Reproductive Rate (GRR) from the proportion of young infants to subadults in a skeletal population. The formula was developed from 98 of Coale and Demeny's Female Model West Life Tables, which represented diverse fertility and mortality rates. The formula's accuracy was examined using independent samples from historical and archaeological cemeteries. Estimates of GRR from the subadult fertility formula were compared with estimates from Bocquet‐Appel and Masset's juvenile:adult ratio. Results indicate that the subadult fertility formula predicts GRR with consistent accuracy (R² = 0.98) and precision (± 1 offspring) in the model life tables, across diverse subadult age structures and demographic characteristics. The formula is useful for subadult populations with a proportion of perinates:subadults between 0.12 and 0.45. The adult component of the sample is not included in the analysis and thus the formula is similarly useful in cases where adults are under‐enumerated, or not. When applied to historical and archaeological populations, estimates for GRR are similar to previous estimates from the juvenile:adult ratio. Because crude birth rate and life expectancy at birth can be calculated from GRR using established fertility centred approaches to demography, the subadult fertility formula allows skeletal populations of diverse composition to be included in demographic research, essential for understanding of how mortality and fertility are affecting the morbidity profiles of subadult samples and for comparative bioarchaeological analyses. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Agent-Based Simulation of Holocene Monsoon Precipitation Patterns and Hunter-Gatherer Population Dynamics in Semi-arid Environments

Based on archaeological evidence from Kutch-Saurashtra (N Gujarat, NW India), we use agent-based modelling (ABM) to explore the persistence of hunter-gatherer (HG) groups in semi-arid environments in the mid and late Holocene. Agents interact within a realistic semi-arid environment dominated by the monsoon. Precipitation trends are modelled from instrumental records (1871–2008) calibrated with existing models for the Asian monsoon in the Holocene (c. 12 ka–present). Experiments aim at exploring dependencies between population dynamics and climate-driven environmental change (in terms of resource availability) for precipitation patterns at the local, regional and continental scales. Resources are distributed across a simplified ground model. Average yearly precipitation (AYP, i.e. mean) and variance in yearly precipitation (VYP, i.e. standard deviation) are the main parameters affecting resource availability in the simulations. We assess the effects of environmental change on HG populations at different timescales: (1) patterns of seasonal (inter-annual) resource availability, (2) effects of changes in mean precipitation trends over the long (Pleistocene–Holocene) and the mid (Holocene, millennial) periods, and (3) effects of intra-annual precipitation variability, i.e. changes in standard deviation from mean precipitation trends over the short period (annual to decadal). Simulations show that (1) strong seasonality is coherent with the persistence of HG populations in India, independently of the geographical scale of the precipitation models, (2) changes in AYP over the mid period (Holocene) are not sufficient to explain the disappearance of HG populations in Kutch-Saurashtra (K-S) 4 ka and (3) precipitation variability (VYP) over the short period (annual to decadal) is the main parameter affecting population performance and overall ecosystem dynamics. To date, sufficiently refined palaeoclimatic records do not exist for the study area, but higher VYP values 4 ka do not exclude the possibility that other factors may have driven the disappearance of HG populations in Kutch-Saurashtra.     

Nationality Population Trends in Belarus during the Recent Intercensal Period, 1989-1999

The author, a U.S. geographer specializing in issues of population change and urbanization in the countries of the former USSR, extends an earlier study of the population of Belarus (Rowland, 2003) by focusing on trends of change in the nationality composition of that country's population revealed by the most recent (1999) census. More specifically, the paper analyzes trends and patterns of the nationality composition of the total, urban, and rural Belarusian population at both the national and regional levels for the period 1989-1999. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 3 figures, 10 tables, 10 references.     

Population redistribution in Sweden--long term trends and contemporary tendencies

Long-term trends in the spatial distribution of the population of Sweden are analyzed in this study. "Two geographical levels, the national and the local, are analysed in a long term perspective, [from] 1750 until 1990. The measure of concentration used is the Hoover-index on [the] county level. Some major determinants affecting population distribution are stressed; demographic components, economic geographic conditions, socio-economic structure, attitudes and population policy. During the last few decades the traditional trend of population has been broken and one finding is that concentration and dispersion is going on simultaneously on the national and the local level."     

Economic Transition and Demographic Change in Russia, 1989-1995

A World Bank demographer reviews recent population changes in Russia, relating trends in fertility, mortality, natural increase, and migration to the social and economic effects of the transition to a market economy. Significant trends (a precipitous drop in fertility, an extraordinary increase in mortality—especially among middle-aged males—and a consequent decline in natural increase) are identified and analyzed, with dislocations caused by the uncertainties of economic and political transition suggested as the principal causes. The effect of net in-migration to Russia (probably mainly ethnic Russians from the Near Abroad countries) in partially offsetting the natural population decrease is examined as well. 5 tables, 16 references.     

Can Dasymetric Mapping Significantly Improve Population Data Reallocation in a Dense Urban Area?

The issue of reallocating population figures from a set of geographical units onto another set of units has received a great deal of attention in the literature. Every other day, a new algorithm is proposed, claiming that it outperforms competitor procedures. Unfortunately, when the new (usually more complex) methods are applied to a new data set, the improvements attained are sometimes just marginal. The relationship cost‐effectiveness of the solutions is case‐dependent. The majority of studies have focused on large areas with heterogeneous population density distributions. The general conclusion is that as a rule more sophisticated methods are worth the effort. It could be argued, however, that when we work with a variable that varies gradually in relatively homogeneous small units, simple areal weighting methods could be sufficient and that ancillary variables would produce marginal improvements. For the case of reallocating census data, our study shows that, even under the above conditions, the most sophisticated approaches clearly yield the better results. After testing fourteen methods in Barcelona (Spain), the best results are attained using as ancillary variable the total dwelling area in each residential building. Our study shows the 3‐D methods as generating the better outcomes followed by multiclass 2‐D procedures, binary 2‐D approaches and areal weighting and 1‐D algorithms. The point‐based interpolation procedures are by far the ones producing the worst estimates.