ROAD INVESTMENTS,SPATIAL SPILLOVERS,AND DEFORESTATION IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON*

ABSTRACT Understanding the impact of road investments on deforestation is part of a complete evaluation of the expansion of infrastructure for development. We find evidence of spatial spillovers from roads in the Brazilian Amazon: deforestation rises in the census tracts that lack roads but are in the same county as and within 100 km of a tract with a new paved or unpaved road. At greater distances from the new roads the evidence is mixed, including negative coefficients of inconsistent significance between 100 and 300 km, and if anything, higher neighbor deforestation at distances over 300 km.     

Development Discourses and Peasant–Forest Relations: Natural Resource Utilization as Social Process

This article analyses the changing role of forests and the practices of peasants toward them in a Costa Rican rural community, drawing on an analytical perspective of political ecology, combined with cultural interpretations. The study underlines the complex articulation of local processes and global forces in tropical forest struggles. Deforestation is seen as a process of development and power involving multiple social actors, from politicians and development experts to a heterogeneous group of local peasants. The local people are not passive victims of global challenges, but are instead directly involved in the changes concerning their production systems and livelihood strategies. In the light of historical changes in natural resource utilization, the article underlines the multiplicity of the causes of tropical deforestation, and the intricate links between global discourses on environment and development and local forest relations.     

森林史研究:以菲律宾森林滥伐史研究为重点

本文主要介绍国际森林史研究的发展历程和解释菲律宾森林滥伐史的主要观点。就国际森林史研究来看, 经历了一个从重点研究温带森林史向热带森林史转变的过程。就菲律宾森林滥伐史研究来看, 提出了诸如人口增长压力说、木材生产和贸易说、林业政策鼓励说、行政不力和政治腐败说等重要解释框架。森林史研究需要超越从单因素出发进行解释的现状, 需要向综合研究转变。国别和专题的森林史研究需要从全球森林史和环境史的整体视野来关注。     

Soybeans,Development and Conservation on the Amazon Frontier

Bolivia's rate of deforestation throughout the 1990s was among the most rapid anywhere in the Amazon Basin. This drastic clearing stood in sharp contrast to the relatively slow rates of landscape change that had prevailed in previous decades. This article reviews the models used for explaining deforestation, and argues that the new context of globalization, structural adjustment, regional integration and rapid technological change contributed to accelerated forest cutting during the 1990s. The author suggests that many environmental policy approaches developed during the 1970s and 1980s no longer address the current clearing situation effectively, and that today's frontiers differ profoundly from previous ones. The widely held idea that intensive production per se reduces forest destruction may not be valid on tropical agro‐industrial frontiers, such as the soybean zones of Bolivia and Brazil.     

Applying Local Indicators of Spatial Association to Analyze Longitudinal Data: The Absolute Perspective

Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) are a class of spatial statistical methods that have been widely applied in various scientific fields. When applying LISA to make longitudinal comparisons of spatial data, a common way is to run LISA analysis at each time point, then compare the results to infer the distributional dynamics of spatial processes. Given that LISA hinges on the global mean value that often varies across time, the LISA result generated at time T_i reflects the spatial patterns strictly with respect to T_i. Therefore, the typical comparative cross-sectional analysis with LISA can only characterize the relative distributional dynamics. However, the relative perspective alone is inadequate to comprehend the full picture, as the patterns are not directly associated with the changes of the spatial process’s intensity. We argue that it is important to obtain the absolute distribution dynamics to complement the relative perspective, especially for tracking how spatial processes evolve across time at the local level. We develop a solution that modifies the significance test when implementing LISA analysis of longitudinal data to reveal and visualize the absolute distribution dynamics. Experiments were conducted with Mongolian livestock data and Rwanda population data.     

Impact of Polycentric Urban Systems on Intra-regional Disparities: A Micro-regional Approach

From the normative perspective of EU regional policy, polycentric spatial development has been seen as an effective tool to overcome regional disparities since the adoption of the European Spatial Development Perspective. However, the impact of a polycentric spatial structure on equal spatial development is ambiguous and still waits for its clarification. This paper examines the relationship by focusing on the local scale, where medium-sized towns play a crucial role as local centres in everyday human lives. Using functional regions of the Czech Republic, this paper defines polycentric urban systems at the micro-regional scale. Subsequently, the level of mono/polycentricity is compared with intra-regional disparities. Based on the results of the analysis, it can be argued that the connection of polycentricity with balanced spatial development is strongly determined by selected indicators. However, the findings do not provide evidence about the strictly positive impact of polycentricity on intra-regional disparities. In a light of these results, the conclusion is rather sceptical about the unique role of polycentricity in spatial development and due to the lack of similar studies, further research is recommended.     

Policy governance from an autopoietic perspective: revisiting Hungary’s regionalization experience

This perspective on Hungary’s post-socialist regional policy governance is informed by an approach that relates region-building and regional governance to social autopoiesis and the self-referential and self-(re)producing nature of social systems such as states. Following debates in regional studies that reflect tensions between the local constitution and external determination of regional governance, we will demonstrate how Hungary has incorporated European Union (EU) policy frameworks through specific appropriations of territorial politics and regional ideas. These appropriations reflect Hungary’s post-socialist transformation not only in terms of responses to global forces, but also as specific spatial practices and regionalization experiences. As we argue, this has in effect resulted in a regionalism without regions – a strategy of Europeanizing territorial politics without creating institutional structures that directly challenge existing power relations. Autopoiesis thus helps explain the resilience of social systems, not only their resistance to institutional change but also their capability to ‘domesticate’ external influences. While criticisms of Hungary’s technocratic and post-political regionalization projects cannot be ignored, our analysis indicates why externally driven intervention in self-organizing governance processes, for example through EU conditionality, has had less impact than expected.     

The Space of Local Control in the Devolution of us Public Housing Policy

Sweeping changes in national policy aim to radically transform public housing in the United States. The goal is to reduce social isolation and increase opportunities for low income tenants by demolishing ‘worst case’ housing, most of which is modern, high‐rise buildings with high vacancy and crime rates, and replacing it with ‘mixed‐income’ developments and tenant based assistance to disperse current public housing families. Transformation relies on the national government devolving more decision‐making power to local government and public housing authorities. The assumption here is that decentralizing the responsibility for public housing will yield more effective results and be more efficient. This paper explores the problematic nature of decentralization as it has been conceptualized in policy discourse, focusing on the underlying assumptions about the benefits of increasing local control in the implementation of national policy. As this paper describes, this conceived space of local control does not take into account the spatial features that have historically shaped where and how low income families live in the US, including racism and classism and a general aversion by the market to produce affordable rental units and mixed‐income developments. As a result, this conceived space of local control places the burden on low income residents to make transformation a success. To make this case, Wittgenstein's (1958) post‐structural view of language is combined with Lefebvre's view of space to provide a framework in which to examine US housing policy discourse as a ‘space producing’ activity. The Chicago Housing Authority's Plan for Transformation is used to illustrate how local efforts to transform public housing reproduce a functional space for local control that is incapable of generating many of the proposed benefits of decentralization for public housing tenants.     

地图投影与全球地缘政治分析:一种空间认知的视角

地缘政治分析离不开地图。在全球地缘政治分析中,作为世界地图基本空间框架的地图投影通过变形为人们架起了一座"认知的桥梁"--一种空间认知的视角,包括结构、中心方位、距离和面积四种认知。它们在人脑中组合成世界意象地图,为全球地缘政治分析营造了一个多维的空间思维条件。世界观念研究、地缘动态研究,地区研究和全球性问题研究都离不开全球地图投影。总之,地图投影对于国际关系研究具有重要价值。     

上海市购物中心的时空格局演化及影响因素

基于网络数据和地理信息数据,运用空间分析法和条件Logit模型,分析了上海购物中心的时空格局演化特征及影响因素。研究表明：(1)上海购物中心的空间布局经历了四个发展阶段。观察期内,其空间分布的轴线均呈东北—西南走向,整体布局趋向均衡。(2)上海购物中心具有全域分散化与局域集聚化并存的演化特征。中、外环附近的购物中心密度逐步提升,区县、街道的空间差异不断缩小。在城市不同方位上,则形成了一个核心集聚区、四个次级集聚区的空间组织结构。(3)市场需求、地租成本、交通可达性、政策规划、集聚因素对购物中心布局具有显著影响。随着时间推移,休闲资源和政策规划的影响有所减弱,购物中心倾向于从集聚发展中获益。     

Local indicators for categorical data: impacts of scaling decisions

When the geographic distribution of landscape pattern varies, global indices fail to capture the spatial nonstationarity within the dataset. Methods that measure landscape pattern at a spatially local scale are advantageous, as an index is computed at each point in the dataset. The geographic distribution of local indices is used to discover spatial trends. Local indicators for categorical data (LICD) can be used to statistically quantify local spatial patterns in binary geographic datasets. LICD, like other spatially local methods, are impacted by decisions relating to the spatial scale of the data, such as the data grain (p), and analysis parameters such as the size of the local neighbourhood (m). The goal of this article is to demonstrate how the choice of the m and p parameters impacts LICD analysis. We also briefly discuss the impacts spatial extent can have on analysis; specifically the local composition measure. An example using 2006 forest cover data for a region in British Columbia, Canada where mountain pine beetle mitigation and salvage harvesting has occurred is used to show the impacts of changing m and p. Selection of local window size (m = 3,5,7) impacts the prevalence and interpretation of significant results. Increasing data grain (p) had varying effects on significant LICD results. When implementing LICD the choice of m and p impacts results. Exploring multiple combinations of m and p will provide insight into selection of ideal parameters for analysis.     

Carbon Sequestration in Community Forests: Trade‐offs,Multiple Outcomes and Institutional Diversity in the Bolivian Amazon

Carbon sequestration in community forests presents a major challenge for the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) programme. This article uses a comparative analysis of the agricultural and forestry practices of indigenous peoples and settlers in the Bolivian Amazon to show how community‐level institutions regulate the trade‐offs between community livelihoods, forest species diversity, and carbon sequestration. The authors argue that REDD+ implementation in such areas runs the risk of: 1) reinforcing economic inequalities based on previous and potential land use impacts on ecosystems (baseline), depending on the socio‐cultural groups targeted; 2) increasing pressure on land used for food production, possibly reducing food security and redirecting labour towards scarce off‐farm income opportunities; 3) increasing dependence on external funding and carbon market fluctuations instead of local production strategies; and 4) further incentivising the privatization and commodification of land to avoid transaction costs associated with collective property rights. The article also advises against taking a strictly economic, market‐based approach to carbon sequestration, arguing that such an approach could endanger fragile socio‐ecological systems. REDD+ schemes should directly support existing efforts towards forest sustainability rather than simply compensating local land users for avoiding deforestation and forest degradation.     

The Spatial Distribution of French Agricultural Cooperatives: An Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis

Abstract

This paper studies the spatial dynamics of French agricultural cooperatives using the recently developed exploratory spatial data analysis tool. Analysis at the level of French districts in 1995 and 2005 shows strong evidence for global and local spatial autocorrelations in the geographical distribution of agricultural cooperatives. The presence of spatial disparities between French districts is confirmed by the detection of such specific spatial patterns as district clusters, a group of neighbouring districts with the same high or low level of agricultural cooperative activities. A typology of all the different Regions is developed to examine the specific spatial patterns of the agricultural cooperative activities. The results indicate that major organizational changes in cooperatives do not significantly modify the initial dynamics concerning the location of activities.     

FIRE IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON: A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MODEL FOR POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT.  This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farm-gate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of field management and deforestation fires to simulate the impact of road-paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development.     

地方性环境立法与经济全要素生产率关系的研究

本文在测算2004—2017年区域层面全要素生产率指数基础上,运用双重差分法全面考察了地方政府环境立法对于全要素生产率的影响。研究发现：中国整体全要素生产率面临严峻的下滑,尤其在2009—2014生产面全要素生年间更加明显,且东中西部区域间TFP指数分布情况在空间上呈“非线性”特征。地方环境立法对地方全要素生产率具有显著的促进作用,然而过度的环境规制措施却不能显著推动经济质量的提升、实现波特效应。     

Local Forms of Spatial Analysis

Local forms of spatial analysis focus on exceptions to the general trends represented by more traditional global forms of spatial analysis. There is currently a rapid expansion in the development of such techniques but their history almost exactly parallels that of Geographical Analysis, with the first examples of local analysis appearing in the late 1960s. Indeed, Geographical Analysis has published many of the significant contributions in this field. This paper reviews the development of local forms of spatial analysis and assesses the current situation. Following a discussion on the nature and importance of local analysis, examples are given of local forms of point pattern analysis; local graphical approaches; local measures of spatial dependency; the spatial expansion method; adaptive filtering; multilevel modeling; geographically weighted regression; random coefficients models; autoregressive models; and local forms of spatial interaction models.     

New views on an old forest: assessing the longevity, resilience and future of the Amazon rainforest

The aim of this paper is to investigate the longevity and diversity of the Amazonian rainforest and to assess its likely future. Palaeoclimate and palaeoecological records suggest that the Amazon rainforest originated in the late Cretaceous and has been a permanent feature of South America for at least the last 55 million years. The Amazon rainforest has survived the high temperatures of the Early Eocene climate optimum, the gradual Cenozoic cooling, and the drier and lower carbon dioxide levels of the Quaternary glacial periods. Two new theories for the great diversity of the Amazon rainforest are discussed – the canopy density hypothesis and the precessional-forced seasonality hypothesis. We suggest the Amazon rainforest should not be viewed as a geologically ephemeral feature of South America, but rather as a constant feature of the global Cenozoic biosphere. The forest is now, however, entering a set of climatic conditions with no past analogue. The predicted future hotter and more arid tropical climates may have a disastrous effect on the Amazon rainforest.     

Tobler’s Law in a Multivariate World

Tobler’s first law of geography is widely recognized as reflecting broad empirical realities in geography. Its key concepts of “near” and “related” are intuitive in a univariate setting. However, when moving to the joint consideration of spatial patterns among multiple variables, the combination of attribute similarity and geographical similarity that underlies the concept of spatial autocorrelation is much harder to deal with. This article uses the notion of distance in multiattribute space to explore and visualize the connection between “near” and “related” in a multivariate context. We approach this from a global, local, and regional perspective. We outline a number of ways to combine different visualization techniques and introduce a new local neighbor match test for multivariate local clusters. We illustrate the methods by means of Guerry’s classic data set on moral statistics in 1833 France.     

Tailored polities in the shadow of the state’s hierarchy. The CLLD implementation and a future research agenda

The paper provides a theoretical contribution to the multi-level governance debate, discussing the role of the policy instruments in tailoring polities for local development strategies. To this purpose, it examines the Community-Led Local Development (CLLD), a policy tool of the EU Cohesion Policy 2014–2020, which has generated more than 3000 local initiatives across the EU. An institutionalist perspective enables a reflection on the multi-level normative dimensions of these local initiatives. A combination of the post-functionalist governance theory, the soft space debate, state-theory and strategic-relational approach provides an interpretative framework to be deployed for a dedicated research agenda. The interpretative challenge is about whether the CLLD enables spatial-temporal fixes in which a deliberative polity pursues a spatial imaginary for an ad-hoc territory. The consequent analytical dimensions can be found in (a) the relationship between attendant ad-hoc polity, policy agenda, territorial design and societal processes; and (b) the meta-governance dimensions that locate the bottom-up constituency of this institutional technology in the shadow of state’s hierarchy. An overview of the CLLD implementation across the EU provides evidence on the latter.