美国对1969年中苏边界冲突的反应

1969年的中苏边界冲突使双方走到了战争的边缘,美国方面对中苏冲突的反应是一个从倾向于中国“好战”和“挑衅”到看清苏联意图的认识过程。美国一直想利用中苏分歧,使其在与苏联争夺霸权的较量中获利。1969年的中苏边界冲突客观上为美国提供了一个绝好的机会,尼克松政府也抓住了这个机会。中苏边界冲突造成的中苏关系空前紧张的形势,使尼克松、基辛格感到美国有可能在处理美、苏、中三角关系中处于优越地位。所以,中苏冲突客观上是促进美国加速调整对华政策的催化剂。     

Typologies of Advantage and Disadvantage: Socio‐economic Outcomes in Australian Metropolitan Cities

Australia's metropolitan cities have undergone significant social, economic and demographic change over the past several decades. In terms of socio‐economic advantage and disadvantage these changes, which are often associated with globalisation, wider economic and technological restructuring, the changing demographics of the population and shifts in public policy are not evenly dispersed across cities, but represent a range of often contrasting outcomes. The current paper develops a typology of socio‐economic advantage and disadvantage for locations across Australian metropolitan cities. More specifically, the paper takes a range of Australian Bureau of Statistics data and uses a model‐based approach with clustering of data represented by a parameterised Gaussian mixture model and discriminant analysis utilised to consider the differences between the clusters. These clusters form the basis of a typology representing the range of socio‐economic and demographic outcomes at the local community level.     

The Basque power‐sharing experience: from a destructive to a constructive conflict?

ABSTRACT. Neither the devolution of powers to the Basque Autonomous Community in Spain nor more than a decade of power‐sharing within this region has led to a peaceful settlement of the Basque conflict. Combining Kriesberg's approach to conflict resolution and consociational theory, past power‐sharing experiences are analysed. The lack of overarching loyalties, traditions of compromise, comprehensive participation and the continuation of violence have frustrated power‐sharing. After the 2006 ceasefire, the conditions for giving the conflict a constructive turn have not fundamentally changed. The potential for alternative forms of power‐sharing as a way out of the Basque conflict, combined or not with innovative territorial arrangements cannot be employed because of multi‐scale polarisation. De‐escalation as a prerequisite for new types of power‐sharing arrangements requires relearning democratic pluralism and a recognition of ethnic hybridity in this politically and geographically fragmented society.     

The Social and Economic Performance of Australia's Large Regional Cities and Towns: Implications for Rural and Regional Policy

Australia's large regional cities and towns display wide variation in how they are adjusting to the socio‐economic transitions occurring in Australia. That variation is exposed using a multi‐variate model analysing performance on a range of socio‐economic variables over the decade 1986 to 1996 for 122 cities and towns with populations of 10 000 and above at the 1996 census. Those places are classified into seven clusters of community performance reflecting opportunity/vulnerability, and their spatial patterns are mapped. The resulting framework is then used to show how the recent geography of the socio‐economic performance of the large regional cities and towns has a distinctive selectivity and contributes to opportunity in some places and the vulnerable performance of others. The influence of that selectivity can be seen in the mismatched geographic patterns evident from an analysis of shares of national population and employment change, investment in non‐residential construction, levels of welfare dependency, and the ratio between household income tax generation and transfer benefits received. The paper uses the insights drawn from that analysis to pose questions suggesting the need to rethink national policy perspectives for addressing change in non‐metropolitan Australia.     

Searching for a Just and Lasting Peace? Anglo-American Relations and the Road to United Nations Security Council Resolution 242

United Nations Security Council Resolution 242 of 22 November 1967 continues to rank as a key point of reference for the Arab-Israeli peace process. The resolution laid down a ‘land for peace’ formula for the resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict, under which Israel would withdraw from territories occupied during the June 1967 Arab-Israeli War in exchange for full peace agreements with its Arab neighbours. This article analyses the Anglo-American diplomacy at the United Nations which led to the passing of the resolution. It argues that the policy-making of the Johnson administration was rendered incoherent by internal rivalries and disorganisation. US Ambassador to the UN, Arthur Goldberg, was perceived as excessively sympathetic to Israel by the Arab delegations. The British approach, by contrast, was perceived by all parties as more even-handed. The clear position adopted by Foreign Secretary George Brown on Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories, together with the skilful diplomacy of the Ambassador to the UN, Lord Caradon, explains the British success in sponsoring Resolution 242. The episode holds broader lessons for the conduct of Anglo-American relations showing that Britain was better placed to achieve diplomatic success when it retained its freedom of manoeuvre in relations with the United States.