Spatial variations and clustering in the rates of youth unemployment and NEET: A comparative analysis of Italy,Spain, and the UK

We investigate the “determinants” of spatial variations in youth unemployment and NEET rates, and the presence of spatial clusters, for Italy, Spain and the UK. We aggregate Labour Force Survey data for the period 1993–2018 to a “regional” level. We find that youths are sensitive to aggregate labor market conditions and a discouraged worker effect. In the UK and Spain, temporary jobs are more likely to be preferred to part-time jobs, whereas in Italy the opposite occurs. There is evidence of spatial clustering of youth unemployment and NEET rates. We discuss the implications for place-based regional and labor market policies.     

TheConvergence of the Italian Regions and Unemployment: Theory and Evidence

We explore the links between the halt of the convergence process of Italian regions at the beginning of the 1970s and the increase in regional unemployment dispersion. We consider a neoclassical exogenous growth model with an imperfect labor market and show that during the transitional dynamics the imperfections of the labor market negatively influence the output growth rate. In particular, the model implies that centralized bargaining is likely to set a national minimum wage that is too high with respect to the labor productivity of the less developed regions, resulting in a negative impact on their per capita output growth. We test the implications of the model on a regional panel data set using the GMM framework. Both our market distortion measure and the unemployment rate are found to significantly lower the growth rate of per capita output.     

SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY AND THE WAGE CURVE REVISITED*

ABSTRACT Most “wage curve” studies ignore the geography of local labor markets. However, when a local labor market is in close proximity of other labor markets, a local shock that increases unemployment may not lead to lower pay rates if employers fear outward migration of their workers. Hence, the unemployment elasticity of pay will be greater, the more isolated the local labor market is. Wages are also expected to be higher in regions that interact strongly with other regions. These hypotheses are confirmed by means of an estimation of wage curves with data for 327 regions of western Germany over the period 1990–1997.     

Exploring the Canadian‐U.S. Unemployment and Nonemployment Rate Gaps: Are There Lessons for Both Countries?

The Canadian and U.S. economies are very similar. Yet, beginning in the 1980s, Canada experienced much greater relative unemployment rates followed in the 1990s by a declining share of population employed. Using state- and provincial-level data this study assesses why U.S. labor markets have recently performed relatively better than their Canadian counterparts. The empirical results indicate that more rapid U.S. employment growth explains a relatively small proportion of its lower joblessness. Structural causes including lower U.S. unionization and less generous unemployment insurance appear to be more important, at least in the long run. The Canadian labor market also appears to be less flexible to regional economic shocks.     

How to improve the quality of life in peripheral and lagging regions by policy measures? Examining the effects of two different policies in Germany

Peripheral regions commonly appear to be less attractive to live in and policymakers all over the world are applying various measures to make them more attractive. This paper analyzes the effects of two very different measures: The German municipal fiscal equalization scheme and the German structural funds for economically weak areas (GRW). It focusses on the impact on perceived quality of life, measured through interregional migration between German labor market regions. Using a spatial vector autoregressive panel model, we find evidence that equalization transfers have a significant positive impact on regional net migration and contribute to the aim of regional equity. These effects are especially found for regions with low endogenous fiscal capacities. GRW funding reveals no significant effects on net migration rates in total, but short-term effects in rural regions.     

THE IMPACT OF SKILL‐SPECIFIC MIGRATION ON REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT DISPARITIES IN GERMANY

Differences in regional unemployment are still pronounced in Germany, especially between eastern and western Germany. Although the skill level seems important for the relationship between regional disparities and labor migration, corresponding empirical evidence is scarce. Applying dynamic panel models, we investigate the impact of labor mobility differentiated by educational attainment of the workers on regional unemployment disparities between 2000 and 2008. The impact of low‐ and medium‐skilled migration is consistent with traditional neoclassical reasoning, suggesting that labor mobility reduces differences in regional unemployment rates. In contrast, the migration of high‐skilled workers tends to reinforce disparities.     

Plant Scale, Industry Agglomeration, and the Outlook for Regional Employment in Central European Economies

A common outcome among Central European transition economies is the significant variation in regional unemployment rates, a condition symptomatic of allocative inefficiency in the labor market. Several studies attribute such variation, at least in part, to large vertically integrated industrial complexes erected during the period of central planning, and in turn to subsequent employment adjustment that operates to the disadvantage of local workers during transition. In this study I provide a test of this hypothesis by examining the correlates of local employment change at the outset of reforms, and specifically adjustment triggered by extreme variation in local plant size and scale externalities.     

Spillover Effects of Welfare Reforms in State Labor Markets

This paper estimates the effects of welfare reforms on a state's employment and wage rates. Welfare reforms include: pushing welfare recipients into the labor force, financial incentives to recipients for working, wage subsidies to employers of recipients, and community service jobs for recipients. The effects of these policies are analyzed using a newly estimated model of state labor markets. Simulations show that jobs found by welfare reform participants cause sizable displacement effects for nonparticipants. Displacement effects of labor supply policies are highest when a state's unemployment is high, whereas displacement effects of labor demand policies are highest when a state's unemployment is low.     

Spatial Effects of Labour Policies Promoted in Italy from 1996 to 2006: An Analysis in the EU Context

One of the most important economic and social facts concerning the European Union consists in the mismatch among its regions in terms of unemployment rates. The paper aims at examining and measuring the efficiency of Italian policies for labour market carried out in the last 10 years, in terms of reduction in the regional disparities in comparison with the whole European distribution of unemployment. We question whether these policies have been successful or the territorial dimension has still a relevant role on the unemployment in Italy. We try to answer to this question by calculating the Theil Index using data from 1996 to 2006 on unemployment and participation from Eurostat at NUTS 2 level, comparing Italian data with those of other EU countries. Our results show that Italy has still a prominent role in the geographical disparities among regions and that its contribution to the geographical concentration of unemployment is still high (especially if we consider female and youth unemployment).     

陇南边缘地区区域过程耦合机理分析——以甘肃省宕昌县为例

本文在分析前人研究成果的基础上,首先对"边缘地区"、"区域过程"等概念进行了界定;进而以典型边缘地区宕昌县作为案例,简要分析其区域过程,并总结出类似边缘地区区域过程中自然与人文因素作用的一般规律,为进一步探索边缘地区发展途径提供理论基础与前提,这也在理论和实践层面上为多学科交叉研究提供例证。     

Analysis of Interregional Labor Migration in Spain Using Gross Flows

In this paper we study the economic determinants of Spanish interregional labor force flows from an aggregate perspective. The study is based on a matching model of the labor market applied to migration, and uses gross rather than net flows as other studies do. Among the main results, we find that unemployment increases out-migration because unemployed people search more actively, but when the unemployment rate is above a certain level this effect is reduced. We also find that the rate of change of relative wages is a significant determinant of migration in Spain.     

Optimizing the Spatial Structure of the Agricultural Production Function

Important characteristics of spatial agricultural production functions are derived by introducing a non‐negative curvilinear spatial demand function for production input intensities. Given the usual neoclassical rationale assumptions of spatial demand for capital and labor inputs under competitive environment of farming in developing agricultural economies, the optimal production levels are determined by optimizing spatial demand for production inputs. Decreasing price‐to‐transport costs ratio (that is, decrease in the prices of capital goods or increase in freight rates) and increasing wage‐to‐travel costs ratio (that is, increase in labor wages or decrease in the travel rate) expand the limits of the (spatial) optimal boundary of the demand for agricultural capital goods and labor input respectively. These effects occur on account of the operation of (positive) spatial price gradient and (negative) wage‐gradient in the market region. It may be noted that elasticities of demand for production factors are spatially variant and have significant effects on the alterations in the structure of agricultural production. However, the spatial optimal solution of production has a complicated relationship with them. The price elasticity has negative and wage elasticity has positive spatial gradients in the market region. Farmers located in the periphery of the market region are not much affected by the proportionate changes occurring in the prices of agricultural capital goods but are more sensitive to the proportional changes in labor wages. Because of a decreasing trend in capital input demand and increase in labor input with distance from the market, capital‐product diminishes with a decreasing rate and labor‐product increases with an increasing rate in the spatial structure of agricultural production. As a result, capital‐labor ratio falls toward zero, which raises profit rate per unit of capital investment especially in the outer part of the market region. The equilibria of optimal production with price elasticity as well as of capital intensity with labor employment (that is, capital‐labor ratio as unity) determine spatial limits of the optimal production zone which is shifted outward subject to the provision of cheap transportation, stabilizing market prices and/or increasing wage rate at the market center. It will help in extending outwardly the optimal spatial limits of capital investment and will mobilize capital resources of farmers in the periphery for efficient and competitive capital‐dominated farming.     

PERSISTENCE OF REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT: APPLICATION OF A SPATIAL FILTERING APPROACH TO LOCAL LABOR MARKETS IN GERMANY*

ABSTRACT The geographical distribution and persistence of regional/local unemployment rates in heterogeneous economies (such as Germany) have been, in recent years, the subject of various theoretical and empirical studies. Several researchers have shown an interest in analyzing the dynamic adjustment processes of unemployment and the average degree of dependence of the current unemployment rates or gross domestic product from the ones observed in the past. In this paper, we present a new econometric approach to the study of regional unemployment persistence, in order to account for spatial heterogeneity and/or spatial autocorrelation in both the levels and the dynamics of unemployment. First, we propose an econometric procedure suggesting the use of spatial filtering techniques as a substitute for fixed effects in a panel estimation framework. The spatial filter computed here is a proxy for spatially distributed region‐specific information (e.g., the endowment of natural resources, or the size of the “home market”) that is usually incorporated in the fixed effects coefficients. The advantages of our proposed procedure are that the spatial filter, by incorporating region‐specific information that generates spatial autocorrelation, frees up degrees of freedom, simultaneously corrects for time‐stable spatial autocorrelation in the residuals, and provides insights about the spatial patterns in regional adjustment processes. We present several experiments in order to investigate the spatial pattern of the heterogeneous autoregressive coefficients estimated for unemployment data for German NUTS‐3 regions. We find widely heterogeneous but generally high persistence in regional unemployment rates.     

URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF LABOR MARKETS: AN EXAMINATION OF THE “TODARO PARADOX” IN A SPATIAL CONTEXT*

ABSTRACT The Todaro paradox and the effects of job creation in urban areas will be re-examined in our spatial model in which the radius of the labor market is endogenously determined by the rational choices of workers. The travel cost of workers plays a crucial role in the choice between two different types of response, migration or commuting. By considering travel costs, we find that the Todaro paradox can be applied to developed, as well as developing, countries. Job creation in urban areas can produce a paradoxical increase in urban unemployment in developed countries, because the low marginal cost of travel will significantly increase the radius of the urban labor market and create new labor supply without migration.     

Unemployment and Labour-market Policy in the New Voivodeship System in Poland

The systemic transformation process and the introduction of market mechanisms involved in the labour market have brought about changes in the state and structure of the labour market in Poland. A measurable effect of those changes has been a drop in employment and the appearance of registered unemployment, whose level soon surpassed that of frictional unemployment and became a basic social problem. The situation in the Polish labour market is aggravated by the fact that there are wide regional differences in unemployment that persist despite variations in the level of national unemployment. The administrative reform implemented on 1 January 1999 has introduced a division of the country into 16 new voivodeships in place of the existing 49. The new system of big voivodeships endowed statutorily with a combination of central government and self-government functions was supposed to create conditions for a more effective labour-market policy at the regional scale. The aim of the present article is to analyse changes in the regional differences in unemployment resulting from the transition from the 49- to 16-unit administrative system. The analysis also covers changes in the institutionalization and implementation of labour-market policy at the regional level which followed from the reform.     

The effects of internal migration on regional wage and unemployment disparities in Canada

"This paper examines the role of the migration mechanism in the context of a general interregional factor flow adjustment model. Using an estimation technique, which pools cross-section and time series data, the direct effects of migration flows and regional investment on the growth of regional wages and unemployment [in Canada] are examined. The results suggest that migration has a small, but significant impact on regional wages and unemployment rates."     

Why do students leave school early in OECD countries? The role of regional labor markets and school policies

This paper examines the determinants of early school leaving (ESL) in a panel of 371 regions of OECD countries observed between 1998 and 2019. The empirical analysis includes both local factors previously emphasized by micro-economic studies and national-level factors such as education policies. We find that labor market opportunities for young people, as captured by the youth unemployment rate or the size of low-skill sectors, can pull students out of school. Conversely, late access to a large number of vocational education tracks, high preprimary enrollment and continuous training for teachers are strongly and negatively correlated with ESL rates.     

Employment Opportunities,Wages and International Migration in Sweden 1970–1989

In this study I focus on the impact of aggregate labor turnover and regional labor market conditions on gross in- and out-migration within the framework of a neoclassical flexible-wage (equilibrium) model and a fixed-wage (labor-market disequilibrium) model. Using annual panel data on internal gross migration flows in Sweden from 1970 to 1989, I find that regional differences in employment opportunities have the expected effects on migration. The empirical relationship between real wages and gross migration flows is found to be less congruent with theory implications, indicating that compensated regional income prospects are equalized primarily via the interaction between employment opportunities and gross migration flows. Cyclical changes in hirings are shown to have a robust and strongly significant positive scale effect on migration.     

上海市就业市场状况与城市犯罪的空间计量分析

基于2008年上海市经济普查数据和城市犯罪数据,改变以往学者以失业率描述就业市场状况的做法,构建就业市场状况指数,并将其扩展到所有行业;同时,构建空间计量模型,研究上海市就业市场状况与刑事犯罪率之间关系,结果表明:1)就业市场状况对刑事犯罪率影响显著,不同行业的影响并不相同;其中,批发零售业、租赁和商业服务业、居民服务和其他服务业、公共管理和社会组织业就业的集中会引发犯罪活动的发生。2)空间计量模型在解释就业市场状况与刑事犯罪率之间关系时,计量效果良好。3)"空间效应"是影响刑事犯罪率的重要因素,其影响来自"空间邻近效应"和"空间误差效应"。     

The changing system of European cities and regions

This paper analyses the current structure of the system of European cities and regions, relations within the system and how it is changing. Cluster analysis distinguished eight regional types: metropolitan, semi‐peripheral and peripheral service regions; central, semi‐peripheral, peripheral and collapsed industrial regions; and agricultural regions. The core of European industrial societies proves to be almost identical with the city belt that dominated economic development in pre‐industrial Europe. Two possible paths of change are discussed: delocalization of simpler, labour cost‐intensive activities towards the periphery (delocalization hypothesis), or structural changes in industrial core regions and persisting marginal status in the periphery (restructuring hypothesis). Neither hypothesis could be confirmed or rejected unequivocally: there were indicators for the continuing importance of urban service centres but no peripheral industrialization for the continuing dominance of industrial core regions while undergoing structural changes. It is concluded that there are hardly any signs of convergence between core and peripheral regions.