第二轮志书记述自然灾害和防灾救灾浅见

我国地域辽阔,地理和气候条件复杂,加之人类活动、生物繁衍等影响,是世界上自然灾害频发的国家之一,灾害种类多、发生频率高、造成损失大。尤其是水灾、旱灾突出,给人们的生产和生活造成极大危害。我国古代修志就重视自然灾害和防灾救灾的记述,《春秋》《汉书》等史书都有记载各个时期发生的自然灾害,为应对灾害提供借鉴与参考。     

唐五代时期海洋灾害成因探析

海洋灾害是唐五代时期较为严重的自然灾害之一,主要是由历史时期海洋气候、海面波动、海水侵蚀等自然因素引起,同时又与当时特定的社会背景有一定的关联。如唐五代时期沿海人口的增加、濒海城市增多与海洋防灾技术的不成熟,导致受灾损失加剧;沿海政府组织的大规模屯田,破坏了沿海地区固有的生态景观,增加了唐五代时期海洋灾害的发生频率。     

第二轮志书记述自然灾害和防灾救灾浅见

<正>我国地域辽阔,地理和气候条件复杂,加之人类活动、生物繁衍等影响,是世界上自然灾害频发的国家之一,灾害种类多、发生频率高、造成损失大。尤其是水灾、旱灾突出,给人们的生产和生活造成极大危害。我国古代修志就重视自然灾害和防灾救灾的记述,《春秋》《汉书》等史书都有记载各个     

不可移动文物自然灾害风险管理研究

近年来,我国不可移动文物自然灾害风险威胁及因灾损失呈快速增加趋势。开展不可移动文物自然灾害风险管理研究,对减轻灾害风险、加强文化遗产应急管理能力和预防性保护具有重大意义。通过梳理不可移动文物自然灾害风险管理中相关问题,从不可移动文物主要自然灾害风险评估方法、自然灾害风险要素信息获取与定量表达、自然灾害风险图构建方法、不同气候条件区域和不同类型文物自然灾害风险监测策略和风险管理框架等五个方面开展对策研究,并对相关示例进行分析、探讨。以期能够减轻不可移动文物自然灾害风险、提升文化遗产预防性保护的"科学化、专业化、智能化、精细化"水平。     

抗日战争时期广东损失调查述略

抗战爆发后,广东省政府即着手进行抗战损失专项调查。1939年7月后．广东抗战损失调查纳入省政府的施政计划,按国民政府制颁的损失调查办法和表式按期查报,形成了敌机袭粤、第一次粤北战役、全省人口伤亡和公有财产损失等多项调查统计资料。由于战时战后环境的影响以及损失查报过程中存在的种种问题,致损失统计不完整、不准确。     

论农村应对自然灾害问题的能力

我国是世界各国中自然灾害频发且多发的国家之一,各种大灾害给我国人民生命和财产安全造成了巨大的损失。作为农村人口众多的国家,自然灾害的发生,显然我国农村是主要的受害体。为了使自然灾害的损失降低到最小化,本文重点从农村对自然灾害认识、预防及其应对和处理的角度,来探讨在我国这样一个自然灾害多发的国家,我国农村在应对自然灾害防治、救助中,如何最大程度地发挥农民自身的积极作用来应对各种灾害。     

1640—1949年影响江浙沪地区超强台风序列的重建

超强台风是影响我国沿海地区最严重的自然灾害之一。依托现代台风研究成果,利用地方志、档案、报刊等资料,归纳风力程度、人口死亡、房屋损坏、农作物损失、官民赈济以及影响范围6个指标,建立历史时期超强台风的识别方法,重建1640—1949年影响我国江浙沪地区的超强台风序列,并以1950—2019年的现代超强台风序列为参照进行统计检验,结果表明此方法能较好识别历史时期的超强台风事件。重建序列显示平均每10年发生2—3次超强台风,且存在明显波动,波动趋势与一般台风有所不同。     

“数字丝路”计划将给“一带一路”沿线遗产提供有力支持

正一带一路沿线区域占地面积广阔,涉及60多个国家和40多亿人口,面临众多可持续发展问题。一带一路沿线国家面临全球变化的挑战,区域自然灾害具有高发性,全球85%的重大自然灾害发生在该地区,超过85%的自然灾害为地震、洪水和干旱、风暴潮,区内一些国家面临严峻和明显的粮食安全威胁,经济和区域发展严重不平衡。空间对地观测技术具有宏观、快速、准确、客观     

民国时期湖南自然灾害危害探析

民国时期频繁的自然灾害给湖南社会带来严重危害。在自然灾害打击下,人口死亡和流徙造成农村劳动力急剧减少,土地荒芜。灾民涌入城市带来一系列社会问题,灾害使社会矛盾更加激烈,引发灾民暴动在客观上加剧了社会动荡。     

城镇与环境的互动:以宁夏地区明代军城为中心

明代宁夏地区城镇的建设和发展,包括与之配套的屯田使自然环境逐步恶化,灾害逐渐增多;城镇的建设与数量增长促使边防形势得以缓和;城镇建设使多民族人口回归,但仍以汉族军民为主,形成蒙、回、汉杂居的人口结构;内地人口迁入,改变了其风俗习惯,形成"宁夏士文化"。反之环境对于城镇亦有一定程度的影响,体现在自然灾害影响城址选择,造成民众财产损失,延缓城镇发展;边防形势、民族结构和移民制约着城镇兴衰。     

城：夏商时期对自然资源的控制问题

本文主要从中心——周边系统相互关系的角度探讨了晋南地区两个商城的政治经济活动,特别是跨地域的控制和运输重要自然资源的问题,并认为聚落形态的变化尤其是城的兴衰,应从政治、经济系统的角度考察。在中国早期国家发展阶段,政治中心从周边地区掠取重要自然资源战略的改变,往往会影响人口的移动和城市的兴衰。     

当代中国防灾救灾的成就与经验

我国自古以来就是一个多灾的国家,中华人民共和国成立以后,党和政府组织人民大力防灾救灾,取得了举世瞩目的成就。新中国成立60年来,虽然每一次灾害都对人民的生活、财产和社会发展带来了不同程度的危害和影响,但是随着抗灾救灾能力的不断提高,中国人民战胜了一次又一次重大灾害,积累了丰富的经验。今天的中国,灾害仍是一个十分突出的问题,防灾救灾在相当长的时期内仍将是党和国家的重要工作之一。     

天变灾异与熙宁变法

在熙宁变法期间,当天变灾异发生时,宋神宗不敢放弃对天的信仰,不敢放弃天人感应说;王安石徘徊于天道自然观与天人感应说之间,也没有能力说服宋神宗接受他的天道自然观;反变法派则借机大肆攻击,恰中宋神宗与王安石的弱点。天变灾异使安石变法陷入困境,是熙宁变法失败的关键因素之一。     

牧区天灾与美国"牧畜王国"的衰落

美国的第二次工业革命在内战以后迅速兴起。工业社会的勃兴和城市人口的剧增使美国原有的肉类生产远远满足不了国内外市场的需求。这种巨大的需求推动了美国西部的牧业开发。内战以后,在密西西比河以西至太平洋沿岸,牧牛业和牧羊业迅速发展起来,形成一个疆域辽阔的“牧畜王国”。西部牧区成为美国新的重要肉产品生产基地,放牧业成了当时最赚钱的行业之一。“牧畜王国”繁荣兴旺了二十余年,到1885年以后盛极而衰。在导致“牧畜王国”衰落的诸多因素中,牧区天灾是一个重要的因素。牧场主们竭草而牧的掠夺式经营更加重了牧区天灾的危害性。     

Natural disasters and relief assistance: Empirical evidence on the resilience of U.S. counties using dynamic propensity score matching

This paper utilizes a novel dynamic propensity score matching approach for multiple cohorts of U.S. counties between 1989 and 1999 to examine local economy resilience to rare natural disasters. Affected counties are sorted based on disaster intensity and are carefully matched to similar counties that did not experience a disaster. A difference‐in‐difference estimator compares trends of affected counties’ postdisaster business establishments, employment, and payroll to counterfactual trends in the matched counties. All affected counties experienced short‐run drops in economic activity that was particularly noticeable in higher‐intensity disasters. In the longer run, less distressed counties returned to their estimated counterfactual trends, but counties with lower predisaster socioeconomic conditions still lagged in growth, particularly in cases of lower‐intensity disasters. Policymakers can use this information to better prepare responses to future disasters.     

Hurricane impacts on southeastern United States coastal national park visitation

As a major contributor to local economies, the tourism industry has been greatly impacted by natural disasters. This study demonstrates the association between tourism economies and impacts of hurricanes in the southeastern United States containing coastal national parks, known for attracting a large number of tourists and having experienced hurricanes. In keeping with two longitudinal data methods (i.e. panel logit model and autoregressive integrated moving average), this study focused on the relationship between the (1) duration, intensity, and damage of hurricanes; (2) existing climate conditions; and (3) tourism demand on park visitation during hurricane and tourism seasons. As a whole, the impacts of hurricanes and climate conditions (precipitation, temperature) were found to have a negative effect on tourism demands (park visitation). With regard to the response of tourism economies to natural disaster damage, parks that experienced stronger natural disasters may be closed for a longer period in order to reconstruct facilities or natural/cultural resources damaged by storms. In an attempt to improve tourism-based regional economies, overcome the challenge of natural disasters on tourism economies, and increase opportunities for establishing disaster management, it is necessary to make an effort to allay unexpected damage to tourism-based areas through proactive plans for disaster mitigation activities.     

明万历二十年代初河南的自然灾伤与政府救济

万历二十一年五月,河南境内黄河一线以南普遭水灾,加上河堤溃决,河南、山东和南直三省交界区域一片汪洋。由于国家救济不力,加上气候寒冷、草皮缺乏和疫病流行等因素,到了该年年底和次年年初,水灾演化为饥荒,饿殍盈途,盗贼猖獗,情势恶化。刑科给事中杨东明独特图画形式的呼吁、阁臣王锡爵等上下沟通的不懈努力以及钦差钟化民舍命为之的系统救济,使河南等地最终幸运地度过了劫难。灾难的发生和救济的过程既体现了明代社会变动的某些信息,也反映了在固有制度体系框架内治人因素的重要作用。     

When Natural met Social: A Review of Collaboration between the Natural and Social Sciences

Abstract

This paper investigates the opportunities for further collaboration between the natural and social sciences. From 81 systematically identified and reviewed papers published in scientific journals, it became clear that complex situations that depend on human behaviour as well as natural processes require natural–social science collaboration. The creation of a community of collaborative natural–social science research, that learns from and can contribute to best practice across the sciences, is advocated to support natural– social science collaboration. Across disciplines, it became clear that such a community should deal with (1) difference between paradigms in the current sciences; (2) creation of skills and competences of the involved scientists; (3) scarcity of institutions sympathetic to collaborative research; and (4) the internal organization of collaborative projects.     

Network Dynamics in Natural Resource Governance: A Case Study of Swiss Landscape Management

Structural characteristics of social networks have been recognized as important factors of effective natural resource governance. However, network analyses of natural resource governance most often remain static, even though governance is an inherently dynamic process. In this article, we investigate the evolution of a social network of organizational actors involved in the governance of natural resources in a regional nature park project in Switzerland. We ask how the maturation of a governance network affects bonding social capital and centralization in the network. Applying separable temporal exponential random graph modeling (STERGM), we test two hypotheses based on the risk hypothesis by Berardo and Scholz (2010) in a longitudinal setting. Results show that network dynamics clearly follow the expected trend toward generating bonding social capital but do not imply a shift toward less hierarchical and more decentralized structures over time. We investigate how these structural processes may contribute to network effectiveness over time.     

自然环境变迁与十六国政权割据局面的出现

中国古代历史发展的自然环境及自然环境变迁对历史进程的影响,起一个具有重大理论和现实意义的问题。东汉末年以来自然环境变迁是西晋灭亡和十六国割据局面形成的重要原因。由于全球性寒冷干燥期的出现,我国北方沙漠面积不断扩展,各游牧民族原有的生存环境不断恶化,于是纷纷南迁,起着西晋统治集团内乱之际,夺取了政权。