Socioeconomic impacts of Russian invasion of Ukraine: A multiregional assessment for Europe

History shows that wars can be enormously disruptive of economic activity, especially international trade, national income, and global economic welfare. This article analyzes the impact on the European regions the Russian invasion of Ukraine using the largest and most updated multiregional input-output model for Europe. Two shocks, trade and inflation, and four alternative scenarios are simulated. The scenarios are considered regarding the number of countries applying a trade embargo, the exemption of oil and gas, and the potential trade diversions with third countries such as China. We obtained a significant fall in GDP (−1.7%), 3.7 m lost jobs and 3% raise over the prewar inflation rate. For trade shock, large indirect effects are obtained, indicating the high relevance of the sectors and countries exposed to the war and the sanctions. The republics of the former Soviet Union, as well as the satellite countries of the former communism, face the harshest adverse impacts. This work shows the importance of breaking Russia's colonial economic ties to the countries in Eastern Europe.     

Restructuring the Post-Cold War World Economy: Perspectives and a Prognosis

In exploring the consequences of changes in Eastern Europe for Western Europe, the Third World and the global economic order, this article examines the need for economic management which is more solidly based on the new theory of international trade, and which extends beyond the national level. The rapidly deteriorating situation in Eastern Europe and the Gulf crisis both form valuable examples of the problems and opportunities ahead. There is a clear move towards the formation of regional blocs such as the European Community, the intention of which is to strengthen the industrial countries against the uncertainties and risks involved in the current reshaping of the world order by multipolarity, as well as in the growing nationalist tensions and movements for national independence. This article will argue that bloc formation is bound to either further marginalize the majority of developing countries, or increase their dependence on the few regional centres that are emerging.     

Economic Regionalism and Social Stabilisation: the International Labour Organization and Western Europe in the Early Post-War Years

The International Labour Organization (ILO) played a concrete role in shaping the mechanisms of international economic co-operation created in Western Europe in the early post-war years. Its tripartite composition and orientation towards social dialogue were perfectly in tune with the productivist principles sponsored by the United States after the Second World War, which largely permeated European economic integration. Thanks to its solid know-how in the field, the ILO made a key contribution in promoting labour mobility, by helping the organisation and co-ordination of national employment services and vocational training systems and, most of all, by assisting institutions such as the Organisation for European Economic Co-operation (OEEC) and the European Communities in implementing freedom of circulation between their member countries. At the same time, in the mid-1950s it offered theoretical support to the economic liberalism on which the European common market was being modelled, arguing against claims for social harmonisation as a precondition to economic integration, and thus contributing to giving European co-operation the shape which still characterises it today.     

Transition and Trade Perspectives on Eastern European Agriculture

In the economic and political restructuring of Eastern Europe, a new agricultural structure is taking shape, based upon private ownership, genuine cooperatives, and a market economy. Agricultural trade policy in six Eastern European nations will be characterized by the aim of self-sufficiency, but privatized and centered around market methods, improvement in agricultural systems will occur slowly, and over the long term may achieve self-sufficiency and greater exports. Meanwhile, Eastern European agriculture will provide investment and market opportunities for countries of the developed world.     

Between Kant and Machiavelli: EU foreign policy priorities in the 2010s

The entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty invites and enables Europe to develop elements of a common foreign policy. Europe should resist the tendency of listing all issues calling for attention, and be aware that it will have to address three agendas, not just one. The first agenda is the Kantian one of universal causes. While it remains essential to European identity, it presents Europe with limited opportunities for success in the 2010s as could be seen at the 2009 Climate Summit in Copenhagen. The ‘Alliance’ agenda remains essential on the security front and would benefit from a transatlantic effort at rejuvenation on the economic one. Last but not least, the ‘Machiavellian’ agenda reflects what most countries would define as their ‘normal’ foreign policy. It calls for Europe to influence key aspects of the world order in the absence of universal causes or common values. While Europe's ‘Machiavellian’ experience is limited to trade policy, developing a capacity to address this third agenda in a manner that places its common interests first and reinforces its identity will be Europe's central foreign policy challenge in the 2010s. A key part of the Machiavellian agenda presently revolves around relations with Ukraine, Turkey and the Russian Federation, three countries essential to Europe's energy security that are unlikely to change their foreign policy stance faced with EU soft power. Stressing that foreign policy is about ‘us’ and ‘them’, the article looks at what could be a genuine European foreign policy vis‐à‐vis each of these interdependent countries, beginning with energy and a more self‐interested approach to enlargement. The European public space is political in nature, as majority voting and mutual recognition imply that citizens accept ‘foreigners’ as legitimate legislators. At a time when the European integration process has become more hesitant and the political dimension of European integration tends to be derided or assumed away, admitting Turkey or Ukraine as members would change Europe more than it would change these countries. Foreign policy cannot be reduced to making Europe itself the prize of the relationship. What objectives Europe sets for itself in its dealing with Ukraine, Turkey and Russia will test whether it is ready for a fully‐fledged foreign policy or whether the invocation of ‘Europe’ is merely a convenient instrument for entities other than ‘Europe’.     

试析美苏建交的历史背景及原因

1929-1933年世界性经济危机使美苏关系发生了深刻变化.身受经济危机困扰的美国迫切需要将苏联作为重要的商品销售市场和原料供应地.伴随着经济危机的加深,日德法西斯势力开始了疯狂的侵略扩张活动,严重影响了美苏自身的安全和世界和平.在不断变化的国际政治现实面前,奉行现实主义外交政策的罗斯福总统终于打开了与苏联建立外交关系的大门.     

Inter-Country Trade Patterns in Europe and the Asia-Pacific: Regional Structure and Extra-Regional Trends

This paper examines the regional structure and extraregional trends of Europe and the Asia-Pacific. The formation of the European Community and the latter's potential enlargement to Eastern Europe contrasts with the Asia-Pacific which has resisted economic and political integration and pursued economic linkages with countries outside of the region. The difference in regionalization tendencies have resulted in more geographically defined subregions in Europe, and greater territorial fragmentation in the Asia-Pacific. Even though European countries exhibit tighter interlinkages with one another, the evidence indicates that their extra-regional links compare favorably with the Asia-Pacific for much of the period from 1965 to 1994.     

Towards the Baghdad Pact: South Asia and Middle East Defence in the Gold War, 19477ndash;1955

This article illustrates US policy on European integration and the European Economic Community (EEC) by focusing on the General Agreement on Tarriff and Trade (GATT) Kennedy Round negotiations (1963–7). However underestimated in the history of international relations, GATT provides in fact an outstanding framework for analysing the foreign policy of its members. Whilst analyses of the Round per se already exist, no scholar thus far has focused on US policy towards European integration. Moreover, no previous author has utilised the European archives and has examined the stances of the EEC. This article shows that US support for European integration, which both Kennedy and Johnson followed at the behest of the ‘Europeanists’ in their respective administrations, conditioned the bargaining position of the United States in Geneva. The US negotiators tried to enhance US trade interests while at the same time attempting to encourage European regional integration. In so doing, the United States played a role in the strengthening of European regional integration by favouring the unity of the area. Moreover, contrary to previous accounts, this article shows that US negotiators were able to direct and move forward a complicated negotiation, showing Washington's leadership. The article concludes by showing that the Kennedy Round ended a period of about twenty years during which the United States acted to promote the unity of Western Europe. At the end of the 1960s, with the worsening of the US economic conditions, the tension in transatlantic relations over monetary and security issues, and the strength that the EEC demonstrated during the Kennedy Round, ‘the Europeanists’ were no longer able to prevail with their line in the internal discussions. This change became apparent when the Nixon administration shifted to a more detached and ambiguous policy towards European integration.     

A European political-economic space that embraced Japan: the international context of the conventional-tariff network,ca.1892–1914

This article sheds new light on the economic globalization in Europe and Asia from the late nineteenth to the early twentieth centuries, with a special focus on the role of bilateral commercial treaties and import tariffs. Countries concluded a number of treaties in those days, and they came to form an extensive ‘conventional-tariff network’. This mechanism contributed to the stabilization of international economic-political space by facilitating reciprocal tariff concessions. The extent of this conventional-tariff network was both temporally and geographically larger than has been assumed. First, as the recent scholarship has shown, the network, which emerged in the 1860s, survived the political turbulence of the 1890s and spanned Central European countries such as Germany and Italy by the early 1910s. Second, the network spread outside Europe and reached East Asia by the 1910s, when Japan renegotiated its commercial treaties and became a new member of the network. The network embodied so strong a mechanism of self-maintenance based on the coordination of economic interests that it was resilient to a major political shock such as the First World War. While the tariff systems in Europe and in East Asia around 1900 have been separately discussed in the literature, this paper focuses on the treaty partnership between these two areas to show how the mechanism of the conventional-tariff network enabled the countries to cooperate for mutual concessions on international trade.     

Much Lost,Little Gained? Contemporary Trade Agreements in the Pacific Islands

At the close of the 20th century, it was increasingly clear that Pacific Island countries would struggle to remain competitive in international commodity and merchandise trade. As governments worldwide embraced free trade, many Island exporters looked set to be displaced by more efficient producers elsewhere. Island policymakers also faced pressure from more powerful states to renegotiate trading arrangements to bring them into alignment with the rules of the World Trade Organization. This article explains how Pacific Island countries responded to the overlapping challenges of globalization. It considers strategies pursued by Island states in negotiations with the European Union (EU), and with Australia and New Zealand. In both cases, Pacific Islands pressed for agreements that would take account of their unique trading circumstances, and arrangements that would allow more Pacific Islanders to work abroad. After nearly two decades of talks, however, final results proved disappointing. A proposed regional Economic Partnership Agreement with the EU was essentially abandoned, and a regional trade agreement with Australia and New Zealand was concluded without the signature of Fiji or Papua New Guinea – the two largest Pacific Island economies. Ultimately, contemporary trade agreements in the Pacific achieved little to ameliorate the competitive disadvantages Pacific Island states face participating in international trade.     

Not Sustainable: India's Trade and Current Account Deficits

India's trade balance and current account have shown persistent deficits for a major part of its post‐independence period. Since the mid‐2000s, trade deficits have increased perilously, with a sharp rise in both oil and non‐oil imports. India has relied on services exports, remittances and capital inflows to offset trade deficits and sustain the current account deficit. This article examines the sustainability of relying on capital inflows, remittances and services exports to sustain these persistent trade and current account deficits. It argues that all three sources entail elements of fragility. The recent global economic slowdown, economic recessions in the United States and Europe, slow economic recovery, low growth forecasts and possibility of a secular slowdown in the United States and Europe raise questions about whether services exports and remittances can continue to generate sufficient earnings to offset trade deficits. Relying on capital inflows also carries risks of financial fragility, with short‐term capital inflows and external commercial borrowings becoming more prominent in the Indian economy.     

DO LOCAL AMENITIES AFFECT THE APPEAL OF REGIONS IN EUROPE FOR MIGRANTS?*

ABSTRACT This paper delves into the factors, which determine the attractiveness of regions in Europe for migrants. Contrary to the literature on the United States, which has increasingly focused on the role of amenities, existing research in Europe tends to highlight the predominance of economic conditions as the main drivers of migration. Differentiating between economic, sociodemographic and amenity‐related territorial features, we examine the appeal of various regional characteristics for migrants by analyzing net migration data for 133 European regions between 1990 and 2006. Our results show that, in addition to economic, human capital‐related and demographic aspects, network effects and—in contrast to existing literature—different types of regional amenities exert an important influence on the relative attractiveness of sub‐national territories across the European Union. Our findings therefore indicate that locational choices in Europe may be much more similar to place‐based preferences in the United States than originally thought.     

The Sharp Edges of Europe: Extending Schengen Eastwards

The EU's external security concerns have caused it to encourage regional integration at all levels in central and east Europe. However, its emerging internal security policies (contained in the newly integrated Schengen Convention, and in justice and home affairs cooperation) are having contrary effects by reinforcing barriers between countries in eastern Europe. The goals of regional integration and good-neighbourly relations between applicants and non-applicants are still present in the Union's enlargement strategy, but border policies are also being developed that run counter to them. EU border policies are raising new barriers to the free movement of people and goods that inhibit trade and investment between candidates and their non-applicant neighbours. There is a risk that the EU could end up giving the central and east European (CEE) countries the benefits of westward integration with their richer neighbours at the high cost of cutting ties with their poorer neighbours in the east. This bargain is still acceptable overall to most political leaders in central Europe; however, acceptance of the EU's terms has been accompanied by great unease about its unintended consequences for intra-regional relations. Moreover, this is not just a problem for CEE countries: the overall security of Europe depends on preventing the isolation of countries left at the edges of an enlarged Union.     

Globalization,trade, and material culture: Portugal’s role in the making of a multicultural Europe (1415–1806)

SUMMARY: In the Early Modern age, Portugal was among the first European countries to engage in overseas trade and colonial ventures. The influx of new people and things rapidly transformed it into a multicultural country in permanent contact with the rest of Europe and the wider world. While we possess a vast amount of knowledge describing the overseas contacts and acquisition of goods from historical documents, in recent years archaeological excavations have begun to reveal direct evidence of these interactions. This includes thousands of people and objects such as ceramics, ivory and stone artefacts produced in overseas territories in Africa, South America and Asia. They were exported in vast amounts to several European countries, and are frequently found in archaeological excavations. These commodities were in part responsible for changing European perceptions of the world, its dimensions and cultural plurality. They also rapidly left their mark on European goods production, leading to changes in aesthetics and the introduction of new forms. This paper will discuss some of these objects in terms of how they reflect an Early Modern globalized world, and their influence on European daily life.     

中国谋求打开对欧关系的努力

20世纪60年代初,随着国际形势的变化,特别是中苏关系的破裂,中国在对外关系方面做出重大调整,重点是谋求打开对欧关系。为此,中国在公共关系、经济和政治外交等领域积极展开活动。总的来说,中国在上述领域所做的努力是有成效的,特别是中法关系正常化标志着中国对欧外交的一个重大突破。但也要看到,中欧关系总体上依然发展缓慢,这主要是由于大多数西欧国家仍不能摆脱美国的控制来发展对华关系造成的。     

Acknowledging economic realities. The CMEA policy change vis-à-vis the European Community, 1970–3

In the early 1970s, the economic consequences of European Community (EC) policies forced the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) to devise its trade policy vis-à-vis the outside world. With the implementation of its Common Commercial Policy, the EC was about to change the rules and conduct of its foreign trade. The East–West trade boom that took off in the 1960s had created significant commercial links, and substantial dependencies, across the Iron Curtain. The smaller members of the CMEA began to advocate an opening up towards the EC due to their fears of worsening trade prospects caused by the new EC policies. After reconsideration of its allies' commercial needs, the Soviet leadership was pressured to change its mind in favour of a common approach vis-à-vis the EC. This article follows the debate within the CMEA Executive Committee on the socialist countries' dependency on the Western market and on the advisability of opening up to the global market. It relies on official CMEA documents as well as Soviet and German Democratic Republic (GDR) policy-making documents. This article analyses the process of socialist integration in connection with the simultaneous developments taking place in their Western European counterparts, and thereby fills a gap in the historiography of Europe in the Cold War.     

In the Shadow of Globalization: The European Community and the United States in the GATT Negotiations of the Tokyo Round (1973–1979)

This article explores the trade negotiations between the United States and the European Community in the Tokyo Round of General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) negotiations, held in Geneva from 1973 to 1979. The article shows how the economic turbulence and the different domestic stances and policies toward the globalizing economy split the Western members of GATT into two camps. Countries, like France and the United Kingdom, less well equipped to face increased worldwide competition and the economic crisis were not keen on trade liberalization. Countries, like the United States and Germany, better equipped to face worldwide competition and in favour of policies that strengthened it, saw trade liberalization as the right path. Eventually, under US President Jimmy Carter's leadership and with the key support of Chancellor Helmut Schmidt, the results of the Round reflected a vote in favour of liberalizing international trade. Thus, the Round was shaped by the globalizing economy but, at the same time, its results gave further impetus to the globalization wave that would reach full swing in the 1980s–1990s. The GATT talks took place in the shadow of globalization: while attempting to govern the process, also built it up.     

Brexit or Bremain: what future for the UK's European diplomatic strategy?

A major public debate on the costs and benefits of the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union is presently under way. The outcome of the referendum on 23 June 2016 will be a pivotal moment in determining whether the EU has a future as a component of the UK's European diplomatic strategy or whether there is a major recalibration of how the UK relates to Europe and more widely of its role within international relations. Since accession to the European Economic Community the UK has evolved an uncodified, multipronged European diplomatic strategy. This has involved the UK seeking to reinforce its approach of shaping the security of the continent, preserving a leading diplomatic role for the UK in managing the international relations of Europe, and to maximize British trade and investment opportunities through a broadening and deepening of Europe as an economically liberal part of the global political economy. Since accession the UK's European diplomatic strategy has also been to use membership of the EU to facilitate the enhancement of its international influence, primarily as a vehicle for leveraging and amplifying broader national foreign and security policy objectives. The strategy has been consistent irrespective of which party has formed the government in the UK. Increasing domestic political difficulties with the process of European integration have now directly impacted on this European strategy with a referendum commitment. Whether a vote for a Brexit or a Bremain, the UK will be confronted with challenges for its future European strategy.     

建国初期的冀朝鼎

新中国诞生后,百废待兴。冀朝鼎在帝国主义实施禁运和经济封锁的困难面前,积极探索中国外经贸的新体制,加强外汇管理,以灵活的外交,与11个国家签定了外贸协定,还成功地与日本、英国等未建交国家进行“民间贸易”．打破西方列强的孤立政策．开创了中国对外交往与贸易的新局面。     

The Ins and Outs of Iranian Industrial Resilience under Sanctions

This paper draws on export data from four of Iran’s key trade partners—the European Union, China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Turkey—to examine the robust and positive correlations between the export of parts and machinery to Iran and Iran’s industrial output, as measured by production index data published by the Central Bank of Iran for industrial enterprises with over 100 employees. The period of analysis is 2000 to 2017. It may seem intuitive that the output of Iranian manufacturers depends on the ability of companies to source intermediate goods such as parts and machinery. However, the imposition of sanctions on Iran is shown to have temporarily decoupled the relationship between European industrial exports to Iran and the Iranian industrial production index—the index remained stable even as European exports fell. An analysis of trade data for the other three trade partners included in this study quantitatively substantiates reports noting that in order to sustain the industrial production index, Iran engaged in processes that can be collectively described as “import reflection.” This entails substituting European intermediate inputs with Chinese inputs while also circumventing sanctions pressures on trade by sourcing European inputs via re‐export from the UAE and Turkey. These processes were fundamental to Iran’s economic resilience in the face of multilateral sanctions and have played a central role in Iran’s defense of its industrialized economy and particularly its non‐oil exports as the administration of US President Donald Trump pursues a new unilateral campaign of “maximum pressure” sanctions.