National and Regional Population Trends in Kyrgyzstan, 1989-1999: Results from the Recent Census of Kyrgyzstan and 2001 Update

A specialist on population change and urbanization in the countries of the former USSR examines nationwide and regional total, urban, and rural population change in Kyrgyzstan for 1989—1999—the period between the last census of the former USSR and the first census of independent Kyrgyzstan—with selected updates to 2001. Of particular interest is the availability of oblast-level nationality data making possible the detailed investigation of changes in the regional and rural-urban populations of major nationality groups in Kyrgyzstan. A focus is on the decreasing sizes of Russian, Ukrainian, and German populations and population growth among ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O18, R12, R23. 4 figures, 17 tables, 41 references.     

The Potential of Energy as a Geopolitical Binding Factor in Asia

An American specialist on urbanization and population dynamics in the countries of the former Soviet Union examines changes in Ukraine's population revealed by analysis of that country's first post-Soviet census (2001). Among the more salient developments examined in this second-largest post-Soviet republic are extremely high rates of natural population decrease among Ukrainians and Russians alike, a substantial exodus of ethnic Russians from Ukraine (and in some cases their ethnic re-identification as Ukrainians) with major implications for nationality distribution both at the national and regional levels, and interesting trends involving other minority nationalities such as (Crimean) Tatars, Armenians, and Jews. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 3 figures, 7 tables, 25 references.     

RECENT POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND GROWTH IN THE USSR

Data from the preliminary results of the 1989 census and Naseleniye SSSR 1987 permit analyses of age-sex structures of the Soviet population and distributions by civil divisions of natural growth rates, total population growth, urban growth, rural growth, percent urbanization, and growths of cities. The paper complements the treatment of census results by macroregions appearing in the November 1989 issue of Soviet Geography (Rowland, 1989) by summarizing trends emerging at a finer scale of analysis and providing recent background information on demographic components of population change.     

Population Trends in a Contested Pseudo-State: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh

A U.S. population geographer specializing in the former Soviet Union surveys the results of an October 2005 census conducted in a contested pseudo-state known as the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR). Data from the enumeration provide the first credible information about recent population characteristics, including nationality composition and migration from the war-torn republic. The data make it possible to ascertain the crude magnitudes of population losses in the republic's constituent rayons as well as changes resulting from deaths and expulsion of ethnic Armenians and/or Azerbaijanis. Changes documented since the last (1989) Soviet census in the region indicate that the current republic's population differs quite dramatically from that of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast of Azerbaijan, complicating efforts to broker a lasting peace agreement between the pseudostate's two neighbors. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23, 1 figure, 1 table, 36 references.     

THE SOVIET FAR EAST: A REPORT ON URBAN AND RURAL SETTLEMENT AND POPULATION CHANGE, 1966–1989

This article provides a general overview of trends in urban-rural population change and evolution of the settlement system in the Soviet Far East since 1966, incorporating data published in the recent national statistical yearbooks and the preliminary 1989 census report (Pravda, April 29, 1989, p. 2). Total population in the Soviet Far East increased from 5,435,000 in 1966 to 7,941,000 by January 12, 1989, with the share of the urban population now comprising over three-quarters of the total. Migration patterns into and out of the region are discussed and cities planned for expansion are identified.     

PANEL ON NATIONALISM IN THE USSR: ENVIRONMENTAL AND TERRITORIAL ASPECTS

A panel of geographers, demographers, and political scientists discusses a broad range of issues related to the resurgence of nationalism in the USSR and its relationship to environmental protest and territorial disputes: the emergence of nationality politics; differential rates of nationality population growth and urbanization; various conceptions of (and levels of autonomy within) ethnic homelands; the spatial pattern of actual and potential territorial claims; linkages between environmentalism and nationalism (with an emphasis on the Baltic and Central Asian republics); parallels and differences between the USSR and other countries; and consequences of efforts to implement republic-level economic autonomy and khozraschet.     

Population Change and Regional Development in China: Insights Based on the 2000 Census

The People's Republic of China conducted its fifth population census in November 2000. This paper draws from that census and recent data to examine national and regional demographic changes in China over the past two decades. Nationally, the impact of fertility decline on rates of population growth, age composition, and household size is investigated. Regional population trends include the rising population share of the eastern region as a result of population growth due to migration and in response to the widening economic gap between coastal and interior China. Demographic differentials between the eastern region and the rest of China (i.e., in proportion of working-age population, household size, sex ratio, and levels of urbanization and educational attainment) suggest that migration is playing an increasingly important role in shaping regional population distribution and that the acceleration of uneven regional development poses a major challenge to policy makers. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, J61, O15. 4 figures, 5 tables, 52 references.     

On pottery change and northern Iroquoian origins: An assessment from the Finger Lakes region of central New York

Pots as tools is a concept that has been widely accepted and developed since Braun’s classic 1983 publication. However, in northeastern North America archaeologists continue to use pottery primarily as an aid to culture history and research problems based thereon. In central New York State it has been postulated that a change in pottery forming technique heralds the onset of Iroquoian pottery traditions at around AD 1000. Empirical data on pottery forming and two other pottery traits do not support this postulation. Rather the trends in these traits are consistent with social learning theory and changes in mobility and population aggregation. Following Engelbrecht (1999, 2003) we suggest that a more fruitful approach to understanding the evolution of northern Iroquoian groups is to be found in ethnogenesis theory as described by Moore (1994, 2001).     

Delayed Underurbanization and the Closed-City Effect: The Case of Ust'-Kamenogorsk

A field study conducted by the author based on a 2001 survey (N = 3,136) compares data on population change at the individual settlement level from the 1999 census of Kazakhstan with unpublished data from the 1989 census. The author documents the unique phenomenon of "delayed underurbanization" in the formerly closed East Kazakh city of Ust'- Kamenogorsk (ca. 300,000 inhabitants in 2002), arguing that the limited financial resources of rural migrants to that city (recently accessible to residents of its rural hinterland) have created spatial patterns of residence and commuting similar to those under the Soviet underurbanization model for open cities. The study, covering an area dominated by militaryindustrial and/or mining-metallurgical economies, is relevant to research focused on other formerly closed cities throughout the Soviet Union. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J61, O15, O18. 5 figures, 25 references.     

THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF U.S. CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS: STYLIZED FACTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE POLICY

We characterize the evolution of U.S. carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions using an index number decomposition technique which partitions the 1963–2008 growth of states’ energy‐related CO₂ into changes in five driving factors: the emission intensity of energy use, the energy intensity of economic activity, the composition of states’ output, per capita income and population. Compositional change and declining energy intensity attenuate emissions growth, but their impacts are offset by increasing population and income. Despite absolute interstate divergence in both emissions and their precursors, states’ emission‐ and energy intensities—and ultimately, CO₂—appear to be stochastically converging. We assess the implications of these trends using a novel vector autoregression (VAR) emission forecasting technique based on our index numbers. The resulting emission projections are comparable to, but generally exceed, those forecast by the 2010 EIA Annual Energy Outlook.     

National and Regional Population Trends in Azerbaijan

An American specialist on urbanization and population dynamics in the countries of the former Soviet Union examines changes in Azerbaijan's population revealed by analysis of that country's first post-Soviet (1999) census and official 2002 population estimates. Particular attention is devoted to the ongoing conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, in terms of its effects on total population size (mortality and refugee flows into and out of the country) and the internal distribution of population within the country (involuntary migration of internally displaced persons). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 2 figures, 4 tables, 44 references.     

THE GEOGRAPHY OF ELECTIONS OF USSR PEOPLE'S DEPUTIES BY NATIONAL-TERRITORIAL DISTRICTS AND THE NATIONALITIES ISSUE

A Soviet political geographer analyzes elections to the USSR Congress of People's Deputies (March 26, 1989), based on returns from nationality-based electoral districts from which one-third of all deputies were elected (see Soviet Geography, October 1989 special issue). Topics investigated include problems in the partitioning of electoral districts (including analysis of the tendency toward the under-representation of cities relative to rural areas), the number of candidates vying for each deputy seat in various districts, the backgrounds of winning and losing candidates, and the extent to which elected deputies mirrored the nationality composition of their respective electoral districts. Translated by Jay K. Mitchell, PlanEcon, Inc., Washington, DC 20005.     

HOW FAST IS THE POPULATION AGEING IN CHINA?

Using adjusted 2000 population census data, this paper conducts projections of China's population up to 2050. Three fertility and four mortality scenarios yield 12 sets of results. Even though fertility is below replacement, China's population will continue growing for many years. One of the notable trends is the rapid ageing of the population. By the end of 2050, one-fifth to one-third of China's population will be aged 65 and over. The demographic dividend is expected to continue in next 10 to 20 years depending on future fertility which, in turn, is determined by changes in China's one-child policy. The Chinese government should be aware of all possible situations of population change, and particularly population ageing in the first half of the century, and be well prepared for all possible challenges that may arise.     

NDVI variation and its relation to climate in Canadian ecozones

Parks Canada began the Northern Satellite Monitoring Program in 1997, with the objective of tracking large‐scale vegetation variation in Canadian ecosystems and helping land managers to develop appropriate management practices in response to climate change. Under this program, a sequence of 10‐day composite Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)‐derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1985 to 2007 was examined to study seasonal and inter‐annual relationships between vegetation and climate data over Canadian ecosystems using statistical and wavelet analysis. Statistical analysis showed that temperature was the principal driver for seasonal variability in greenness, explaining more than 70 percent of seasonal variation in vegetation for most Canadian ecozones. In comparison with temperature, the relationships between NDVI and precipitation were weaker but still significant. Maximum annual NDVI showed increasing trends in Canadian ecozones during the study period, although increasing rates were spatially heterogeneous. Wavelet analysis confirmed that inter‐annual variation in NDVI was different at two ecozones in Canada. NDVI variation in the Northern Arctic was significant at scales of 3–4 years from 1997 to 2001, which was associated with temperature and precipitation variation. Comparatively, NDVI variation in the Boreal Shield was significant at scales of 5–8 years from 1991 to 1999, but did not correspond with climate variation.     

Introduction: national identity in transition? Moving out of conflict in (Northern) Ireland1

This thematic section of Nations and Nationalism starts from a question of substantive political importance: How does institutional change – in particular reforms towards ethno‐national equality and the opening of borders – affect national identification in divided regions? It takes the case of Northern Ireland where a radical process of institutional change is under way. It uses new approaches to national identity to map different aspects of change and continuity – in categories of identity and in their interrelations and contents, in elite and in everyday popular identifications (for useful overviews, see Abdelal et al. 2003; Ashmore et al. 2004 ). It examines the trajectory of the Protestant minority in the Irish state to show possible repertoires of change. The authors look respectively at self‐reported categories of identity, official discourses of identity, and popular understandings of nationality. The introduction outlines the relevance of this research to current comparative and theoretical debates.     

SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF METROPOLITAN TEHRAN,IRAN

This paper presents a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Tehran, the capital of Iran. Two maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Tehran and its vicinity in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines. They display the probabilistic estimate of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) over bedrock for the return periods of 475 and 950 years. Tehran is a densely populated metropolitan in which more than 10 million people live. Many destructive earthquakes happened in Iran in the last centuries. It comes from historical references that at least 6 times, Tehran has been destroyed by catastrophic earthquakes. The oldest one happened in the 4th century BC. A collected catalogue, containing both historical and instrumental events and covering the period from the 4th century BC to 1999 is then used. Seismic sources are modelled and recurrence relationship is established. For this purpose the method proposed by Kijko [2000] was employed considering uncertainty in magnitude and incomplete earthquake catalogue. The calculations were performed using the logic tree method and three weighted attenuation relationships; Ramazi [1999], 0.4, Ambraseys and Bommer [1991], 0.35, and Sarma and Srbulov [1996], 0.25. Seismic hazard assessment is then carried out for 12×11 grid points using SEISRISK III. Finally, two seismic hazard maps of the studied area based on Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) over bedrock for 10% probability of exceedance in two life cycles of 50 and 100 years are presented. The results showed that the PGA ranges from 0.27(g) to 0.46(g) for a return period of 475 years and from 0.33(g) to 0.55(g) for a return period of 950 years. Since population is very dense in Tehran and vulnerability of buildings is high, the risk of future earthquakes will be very significant.     

Regional demographic trends in France: an examination at the level of the "zones d'emploi"

"The paper studies the regional demographic trends in France from 1968 to 1990.... The study follows two main objectives: (1) Analysis of the main regional migration and population trends over the three census periods from 1968 to 1990. (2) Analysis of the growth trends of different types of regions on the basis of typifying the ?zones d'emploi' (labour market regions) according to economic criteria and settlement structure criteria. The large-scale patterns of the population and migration trends seem to be relatively stable in comparison to the massive change in the general economic and political framework in France and Western Europe.... The different region types, however, show more distinct changes." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE AND RUS)     

蜀国与西南民族

自古以来,我国西南地区民族人口众多,民族成份复杂,民族分布面广,民族活动能量强、社会影响大。三国时期,立国于西南之蜀国与西南民族的关系极为密切,对西南民族地区社会历史的影响广泛而深远。本文在阐述蜀国建立的基础上,着重论述了其境内的民族成份及诸葛亮平南中的事件,并对(?)人的族属和平南中的时间作了进一步的探研。     

日本对华"武装移民"政策及其战略目的

"九·一八"事变,日本武装占领中国整个东北之后,日本关东军、日本政府便开始积极策划向中国东北推行"武装移民"的侵略政策.到1937年日本实施"百万户移民"之前,先后向中国东北"武装移民"五次.日本"武装移民"的战略目的,就是要用日本移民来壮大日本在中国东北的实力,配合日本关东军镇压东北抗日武装,加强殖民地统治,达到长期霸占的目的.     

Linking Agricultural Policies with Decision-Making: A Spatial Approach

Abstract

The loss of agricultural land and its implications have been of great concern in the last decade. By undertaking a spatial analysis of the appropriation of agricultural land for urban use with an overlay of population and urban data, a focus on the consequences of certain regulations on the dynamics of land-use change is explored. This is achieved by integration of data inventories of agricultural land use for Portugal, and linking this information with CORINE Land Cover data as to assess change in the Algarve. An integrated assessment of agricultural land loss follows, undermined by the consequences of urban sprawl. In this sense, this paper expands on the currently existing decrees which provide support to sustainable development in the region while providing a qualitative assessment of future roles based on ethical values and economic efficiency and offering a feasible framework for policy-makers regarding the trends of urban/agricultural dichotomy in a planning and decision-making context.