Developments in Russian Gas Production Since 1998: Russia's Evolving Gas Supply Strategy

An American geographer and prominent authority on the oil and natural gas industries and resources of Russia and other former republics of the Soviet Union reports on overall trends in Russia's natural gas production in the years following the country's ruble devaluation and financial crisis. The account—based on systematic in-country observations, discussions/interviews with industry executives, and a review of industry sources—focuses on factors affecting domestic supply and demand as well as export capacity (will Russia have enough gas to meet rising domestic demand while fulfilling its export obligations?), regional patterns of production (and performance of Gazprom regional production enterprises), obstacles to the use of associated gas derived from crude oil extraction, and major pipeline construction projects in West Siberia and the Russian Far East. The paper concludes by outlining CERA's forecast for Russian gas production to 2020, also disaggregated by region. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 7 figures, 8 tables, 51 references.     

Russia's Energy Policy: A Divergent View

A noted American analyst of Russian, Central Asian, and Transcaucasian oil and gas industries and markets offers his own perspective on issues raised in the preceding paper on Russia's energy policy (Milov et al., 2006). While generally concurring that Russia indeed pursues an ad hoc (rather than systemic) energy policy, he expresses divergent views on the role of government-regulated versus market-based pricing in final and primary energy use, reasons for the intense flows of oil and gas to Europe, the role of pipelines in determining oil export allocations, and the contribution of regional monopolies and refining capacity to domestic oil product prices. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 20 references.     

Russian Peasant Farms and Household Plots in 2003: A Research Note

An American specialist on Russian agriculture surveys the current legal status of peasant farms and subsidiary agriculture ("private plots") in Russia following the enactment of two important new laws in 2003. In the process, he highlights differences between peasant farms and subidiary plots in terms of the quantity and type of food produced, the size of land plots utilized, and their legal status. Also reviewed are selected aspects of the recent economic perfomance of these two pillars of private-sector agriculture. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O13, O18, Q15. 16 references.     

Can Russia Break the "Resource Curse"?

A noted European economist argues that the Russian economy and its post-2000 growth have been heavily dependent on natural resources, especially hydrocarbons, and are bound to remain so for some time to come. Given that many economists have come to view rich natural resource endowments as a "curse" that undermines development, the question arises as to whether Russian economic development is doomed. The author argues that while the challenges posed by resource dependence are serious, they can be overcome, or at least substantially mitigated, if accompanied by the right economic policies as the examples of Australia, Canada, and the Scandinavian countries demonstrate. He analyzes what these economic policies are for Russia, and how to set up Russian economic and political conditions to facilitate their implementation. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E6, O1, O52, P2, Q43. 4 figures, 2 tables, 50 references.     

The Economics of Rural Households in Russia: Impact of Village Location

An American specialist on Russia's agrarian sector and two collaborators explore the effects of distance to nearby urban markets on the agricultural output and income of Russian rural households. Unlike previous studies that have largely tested such effects on the basis of household distance from relatively large oblast administrative centers, the authors adopt a micro-level scale of analysis, focusing on distance from smaller rayon centers. Comparison of two sample populations (near vs. remote from rayon center) from a larger survey population of 900 households in nine representative regions of Russia reveals marked differences in household incomes, commodity output, and real holdings of land that are statistically verified by a linear regression model. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O18, P32, Q15, Q18. 4 tables, 46 references.     

Geographic Aspects of Population Aging in the Russian Federation

An American demographer specializing in the former USSR and Russia examines the demographic aspects of aging and the age structure of Russia's population across its regions, covering urban versus rural areas, and ethnic homelands versus non-ethnic (Russian) regions. The paper also assesses the implications of aging for Russia's pension and electoral systems, by examining regional differences in the real value of pensions and the emergence of a rather durable, conservative "red belt" strongly correlated with older, more agrarian, and rural populations. A final section examines the future of aging in Russia using recent population projections by Goskomstat Rossii demographers. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J10, J11, J14. 10 figures, 2 tables, 39 references.     

The Regional Dimension of Russian Oil Production: Is a Sustained Recovery in Prospect?

An American geographer and prominent authority on oil and natural gas industries and resources of Russia and other former republics of the Soviet Union presents a region-byregion account of Russia's oil production, tracing in considerable detail developments up to September 2006. The account, based on systematic and frequent field investigations since the early 1990s as well as interviews with key industry executives, covers reserves, output trends, ownership, investments, pipelines, and a variety of economic factors including exports to China. Addressing the question of whether sustained production recovery is possible, the author presents American and Russian scenarios projecting oil output through the year 2020. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 8 figures, 7 tables, 64 references.     

The Patriot Game: Russia and the First World War

D.C.B. LTEVEN. Russia and the Origins of the First World War. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1984. Pp. 213. $25.00 (US); LEWIS H. SIEGELBAUM. The Politics of Industrial Mobilization in Russia, 1915–1917: A Study of the War-Industries Committees. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1984. Pp. xix, 312. $27.50 (US); WTLLIAM OLEASON. Alexander Guchkov and the End of the Russian Empire. Independence Square, Philadelphia: The American Philosophical Society, 1983 (Transactions of the American Philosophical Society, Volume 73, Part 3, 1983). Pp. 90. No price available.     

Perspectives on the Potential of Russian Oil

A prominent American specialist on the economy of the former USSR comments on Russian oil in light of a preceding paper on the subject. Noting the congruence of Russia's economic growth with world oil prices, the author points out that the country's growth is endangered by sharp declines in those prices. He also recalls how an oil windfall shaped Russian thinking in the 1970s, questions how long Russia can pump oil at its maximum level by invoking the American experience from 1859 through the peak in 1970 until the present, analyzes the two corporate models in the Russian oil sector, and briefly outlines Putin's new approach to foreign investment in the sector. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, O18. 3 figures, 8 references.     

Russian Revenues from Oil and Gas Exports: Flow and Taxation

A senior Japanese economist traces the flows of revenue derived from oil and gas exports through the Russian economy. The author examines the use of revenues and investigates their contribution to Russia's state and regional budgets in the form of taxes. After detailing the methodological difficulties encountered in measuring revenue streams statistically, he proceeds to approximate their magnitude through intensive use of input-output table data and budget statistics provided by the Russian Federation Ministry of Finance. His investigation of the list of destination countries for Russian oil and petroleum products exports has interesting implications for the study of capital flight from Russia to the West. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F14, H20, Q43. 10 tables, 37 references.     

The Booming Russo-Japanese Economic Relations

A noted Japanese economist analyzes the history, present status, and future prospects for Russo-Japanese economic relations. The author demonstrates that the boom in trade between the two countries in the 2000s is unprecedented, ending the stagnation in bilateral trade that began in the early 1980s, when the era of large-scale Siberian resource development projects came to an end. He argues that underlying the current boom is an eastward shift in the Russian economy, characterized by its energy and investment policies as well as foreign economic relations. The paper considers in detail two important factors supporting this boom: (1) Japan’s exports of automobiles to Russia; and (2) Russia’s exports of oil and gas to Japan. He concludes with a guardedly optimistic prognosis suggesting growth in the bilateral economic relations on the grounds of the continuing eastward shift of the Russian economy and a marked correspondence between the demand and supply of the two countries. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F140, O520, P280, Q430. 7 figures, 4 tables, 50 references.     

Devolution,Constitutional Development,and the Russian North

A prominent American Sovietologist examines a range of issues surrounding the involuntary migration of Russian populations from the non-Russian republics of the former USSR. Among the questions addressed are possible magnitudes of in-migration into Russia (with special attention paid to conditions in one of the major source regions, Central Asia), attitudes in Russia regarding appropriate policy with respect to treatment of co-nationals in the near abroad and whether their return to Russia would have a positive or negative impact, and conditions in areas of Russia that presently are absorbing the greatest numbers of migrants. The assertion that Russian policy should seek aggressively to prevent the out-migration of Russian populations in the near abroad is assessed critically. 1 table, 1 figure, 10 references.     

Reflections on a Geographic Dichotomy: Archipelago Russia

A noted economic geographer and Sovietologist conceptualizes Russia's current economy as an archipelago, consisting of widely scattered nodes of viable, integrated activity separated by an enormous expanse of "dead space." The dichotomy between metropolitan Russia and its hinterland is developed through an examination of contrasts in such major indicators of well-being as natural gas consumption, access to education, the middle class, retail trade and services, undeclared income, and port-hinterland multiplier effects. Also discussed are the major types of hinterland (classical, or resource frontier, versus backwater), the special case of the Russian Far East and Transbaykalia, and contrasts with developments on the North American continent. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O10, O18, O50. 38 references.     

China's Nuclear Energy in Light of the Disaster in Japan

An American specialist on Russian agriculture examines that country's agrarian policy, as well as the agricultural sector more generally, one year into the presidency of Dmitriy Medvedev. Focusing on the three key policy issues—state financial support, state intervention in the grain market, and international food trade policy—he assesses the extent to which current policy represents a continuation of that prevailing during the presidency of Vladimir Putin. The author discusses the appointment of a new Agriculture Minister in 2009, which may signal a different approach to the management of the sector, and concludes with an assessment of the impact of the global financial crisis. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F130, Q100, Q170, Q180. 2 tables, 63 references.     

孙中山与苏俄关系论析

本文运用近年新解密的俄罗斯档案及国内孙中山研究中发掘的有关文献资料,对孙中山与腚苏俄关系问题进行一些新的审视和探析.1917年俄国十月革命胜利后,孙中山十分关注俄国的沧桑巨变,进而由外交接触到联俄政策的酝酿,由确立联俄政策再到"以俄为师".他晚期政治理想中有着浓厚的"恋苏"情结.孙中山晚年既要苏俄的援助,又要维护中华民族利益,还要防止俄式共产主义和苏维埃革命的输入,在联俄与防俄间充分发挥了他的政治平衡.同时,孙中山在与共产国际和苏俄关系的互动中呈现出鲜明的策略性、现实性和独立自主性.苏俄在处理与孙中山的关系上存在大国沙文主义倾向.     

Strategic Reassertion in Russia's Central Asia Policy

President Putin has presided over a proactive, hard-headed and relatively effective Russian policy in Central Asia and the Caspian region since at least the summer of 2002, which aims both to support Russia's revival as an economic and military power and to help tackle at source new security challenges from the volatile south. In line with rising domestic nationalist thinking and the growing influence of officials with a security service or military background, Moscow has been searching for a rationale to support a more assertive policy in the region. Meanwhile, Russian and American views on the scope and conduct of the war on terrorism have diverged in important respects. Russia lacks an overall regional strategy for Central Asia, but is seeking to mesh together geopolitical, security and energy policy goals. It is seeking to reinvigorate its military–security influence in Central Asia under the banner of counterterrorism and at the same time has achieved long-term agreements for energy transit and purchases that make Central Asian states increasingly dependent on Russia in energy policy. Overall, a dynamic of competition is displacing the potential for cooperation between Russia and western states, especially the United States, in Central Asia. The prospects for a fully-fledged strategic partnership in the region are fading but the reality of security threats from Afghanistan and within Central Asia might eventually reconcile Moscow to a lower profile but long-term western strategic presence in the region.     

Russia's Energy Policy, 1992-2005

A team comprising a former Russian policymaker and American analysts of the current Russian energy policy examines the course of that policy and its limitations during the post-Soviet period. In the process, they critically analyze key problems in Russia's oil, gas, coal, and electricity sectors that represent a potential drag on growth of the entire Russian economy and at the very least call into question the sustainability of further increases in exports to the West. The authors explore in considerable depth and detail both the factors underlying the recent increase in government intervention in the energy sector and the likely consequences for domestic production, consumption, resource security, and critical exports. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 11 figures, 3 tables, 29 references.     

An Enlightened path towards conservatism: critical junctures and changing elite perceptions in early nineteenth-century Russia

This article explores the historical roots of Russian conservatism by analyzing the evolution of Russia’s Westernized, Enlightenment-minded nobility to a conservative segment of Russian society in the early nineteenth century. The events of 1789 and 1812 were critical junctures that made the Russian nobility painfully aware of their own deep level of Westernization. The article first describes the reverberations of the French Revolution among the Russian elite. It also discusses the internal and external scrutiny of Russia’s relations with France under Napoleon, which made Russian conservatism a contingency. It then describes the evolution between 1789 and 1812 of a corpus of conservative ideas ranging from traditionalism to ardent patriotism and xenophobia. Napoleon’s 1812 campaign against Russia overshadowed the generational gap and diverging political and literary preferences among the elite. The reaction to it illustrates the intrinsic duality of the Russian elite: culturally Westernized, yet politically conservative. Yet the influence of several Western defenders of the ancien régime on Russia’s conservatives shows that the essentially conservative Russian identity as propagated by Putin these days originally might have been more pan-European than purely Russian.     

The Russian Copper Industry and the Noril'sk Joint-Stock Company in the Mid-1990s

An American resource geographer examines current production in one of the world's major copper industries, with special emphasis on the Noril'sk Nickel Joint-Stock Company—the world's most important producer of platinum-group metals, a leader in nickel and cobalt output, and the leading Russian producer of copper as well. The author documents and analyzes changes in operating procedures and raw material supplies in the industry during the 1990s, focusing on adjustments (such as tolling arrangements and imports of concentrate in the raw-material-deficient Urals and efforts to introduce cost economies in resource-rich Noril'sk) prompted by the severing of industry production linkages of the Soviet period and their partial reintegration under new corporate structures. In addition to restructuring, likened to similar adjustments in the American copper industry, the investigation covers exploration and new mine development at various Russian locations as well as the economics of producing copper and other exportable metals at Arctic production centers. 1 figure, 4 tables, 103 references. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L61, L72, Q32.     

Observations on the Influence of High Oil Prices on Russia's GDP Growth

A noted economist and observer of post-Soviet affairs presents a study probing the influence of high oil prices on Russia's GDP growth. The paper analyzes the contributions to the country's GDP by sectors of origin and final use, and pays special attention to the influence of trade margins produced by oil and gas but recorded and placed by Goskomstat Rossii in Russia's trade sector. The author's interpretation of statistical data released by Goskomstat Rossii as well as by Russian customs authorities enables him to conclude that the present-day economic boom in Russia can be characterized as consumption-led growth fueled by oil and gas export revenues. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: C67, C82, E23, L71, Q43. 2 figures, 10 tables, 20 references.