Russia’s energy relations with China: passing the strategic threshold?

This article examines Russian energy policies toward China over the past decade as reluctant engagement changed into a priority energy partnership. From 2008 to 2016 Russian and Chinese companies signed several major oil and gas agreements, a period in which Moscow reassessed China as a future energy consumer and lifted bilateral cooperation to a new level. The article utilizes the strategic partnership concept as an analytical framework and finds traditional realist concepts and hedging inadequate for this particular case. The study illuminates Russian geopolitical considerations and acceptance of vulnerability, which combined make long-term Russian energy policies more China dependent. Officially, Russia seeks diversification among Asian energy buyers, but its focus has increasingly been on China. Western sanctions imposed in 2014 for Russia’s role in Ukraine accelerated this trend. Moscow’s energy policies toward Beijing with its pipelines and long-term agreements are permanent arrangements that resemble strategic partnership policies. China is eager to increase energy relations with Russian companies, but Beijing also ensures that it does not become too dependent on one supplier. Russian concern over its increased dependence on China in the East is deemed secondary to expanding Russia’s customer base beyond the still-dominant European market.     

俄罗斯的欧亚选择与中俄边疆区域合作

历史上俄罗斯多次出现"回归欧洲"还是"融入亚洲"的讨论和选择,但独特的地缘政治和经济环境决定了俄罗斯必须在欧亚之间起到有效的链接作用,欧亚经济一体化的进程也离不开俄罗斯的积极作为。俄罗斯在积极与欧洲发展合作的同时也要在亚洲扮演重要的角色。中俄边疆区域合作是中俄关系发展的主要组成部分,为使中俄关系保持持续和稳定的发展,就必须排除"中国威胁论"论调的干扰。     

The Clean Energy Dilemma in Asia: Is There a Way Out?

A prominent American geographer and specialist on energy and environmental policies in developing countries assesses the challenge to sustainable development posed by Asia's rapid economic growth and the concurrent need to reduce the environmental impacts of energy production and use. A particular focus is on China and India, as rapidly growing energy consumers and greenhouse gas emitters, and on Russia as a potentially important supplier of natural gas and liquid alternatives to coal use. The author suggests some elements of a strategy to resolve the dilemma of reducing global environmental impacts without penalizing Asia's economic development, although a significant energy transition over the next several decades appears quite difficult.     

Regionalism in Central Asia: New Geopolitics, Old Regional Order

Behind the rhetoric of regional cooperation, the Central Asian states have been embroiled with increasing frequency in conflicts among themselves, including trade wars, border disputes and disagreements over the management and use of water and energy resources. Far from engendering a new regional order in Central Asia, the events of September 11, 2001 and the subsequent basing of US troops in the region have served to entrench pre-existing patterns of regional cooperation, while highlighting the obstacles that have beset the regionalization process there since the mid-1990s. While all five Central Asian states have been attempting to use the renewed rivalry between Russia and the United States, which is being played out in the Central Asian region, to maximize their strategic and economic benefits, the formation of the United States–Uzbekistan strategic partnership has increased the resolve of the other Central Asian states (Turkmenistan excepted) to balance Uzbekistan's preponderance by enthusiastically pursuing regional projects involving Russia and, to a lesser extent, China. This regional dynamic has resulted in the steady gravitation of the centre of regionalism in Central Asia to the north from a nominal Tashkent–Astana axis to a more stable Astana–Moscow one, with possible repercussions for the poorer states of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The article examines the major constraints on regionalism in Central Asia, considering in particular the ways in which the personalist, non-democratic regimes of Central Asia have obstructed state–centric 'top–down' regionalism as well as informal regionalist processes 'from below'.     

区域一体化进程中的国际城市系统研究——以图们江地区为例

本文在考察图们江地区国际城市系统的形成与发展及其现状特点的基础上,分析了主要影响与制约因素,预测了未来图们江地区国际城市系统的发展趋势。图们江地区国际城市系统是区域一体化的必然产物,短期内,基本发展框架是以中国珲春、俄罗斯斯拉夫扬卡和朝鲜罗津为顶点的"小三角"核心区为主;长期来看,则将在以中国延吉市、俄罗斯海参崴市、朝鲜清津市为顶点的"大三角"框架下发展,以现代国际网络城市系统构成东北亚地区国际物流中心与增长极。     

China and global oil: vulnerability and opportunity

China has grown increasingly dependent on imports of oil and, as a consequence, has become a major and very visible player in the international energy markets. For a country which has traditionally been strongly committed to the principle of self‐reliance, this dependence on foreign oil has been a source of vulnerability and anxiety. But it has also been a strategic opportunity for China to chart its own ambitions and objectives as a global economic and political actor. This article addresses the various ways in which China has incorporated its energy import needs within its foreign policy. There are, it is argued, three dimensions to this. There is, first, integration and cooperation with the West and other large oil‐importing countries and a shift away from neo‐mercantilism to a growing reliance on international markets. Second, there is a complementary strategy of balancing, which seeks to develop the energy resources close to its borders, in Russia and Central Asia, which are not so vulnerable to western intervention. And third, there is the construction, though preliminary and nascent at the moment, of a hegemonic order which challenges the US and the West in the critical maritime routes from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean and through to the Persian Gulf region.     

图们江地区产业开发战略研究

文章认为图们江地区的产业开发既是一个当地原有产业的成长过程,又是中俄朝三国经济发展和东北亚地区国际合作的过程。为此本文讨论了地区开发条件和潜力,进而提出了地区产业开发的原则、主导产业和产业的空间结构。     

Strategic Reassertion in Russia's Central Asia Policy

President Putin has presided over a proactive, hard-headed and relatively effective Russian policy in Central Asia and the Caspian region since at least the summer of 2002, which aims both to support Russia's revival as an economic and military power and to help tackle at source new security challenges from the volatile south. In line with rising domestic nationalist thinking and the growing influence of officials with a security service or military background, Moscow has been searching for a rationale to support a more assertive policy in the region. Meanwhile, Russian and American views on the scope and conduct of the war on terrorism have diverged in important respects. Russia lacks an overall regional strategy for Central Asia, but is seeking to mesh together geopolitical, security and energy policy goals. It is seeking to reinvigorate its military–security influence in Central Asia under the banner of counterterrorism and at the same time has achieved long-term agreements for energy transit and purchases that make Central Asian states increasingly dependent on Russia in energy policy. Overall, a dynamic of competition is displacing the potential for cooperation between Russia and western states, especially the United States, in Central Asia. The prospects for a fully-fledged strategic partnership in the region are fading but the reality of security threats from Afghanistan and within Central Asia might eventually reconcile Moscow to a lower profile but long-term western strategic presence in the region.     

改革开放以来中国国际影响力的提升及其空间拓展机制

采用全球媒体报道事件大数据，依据空间相互作用理论和距离衰减理论，构建国家影响力评价模型，揭示中国在全球国家体系中的地位和作用，刻画其国家影响力的演变轨迹和影响空间拓展的过程，并挖掘海量事件背后隐藏的宏观格局形成的微观驱动机制。结果表明：①1980—2015年，世界大国影响力指数呈现良好的时空惯性，欧亚大陆的边缘地带是国家影响力指数高值的分布区域。②中国国家影响力指数的提升主要依靠其经济实力的增强，提升过程表现出“先平稳后快速”的阶段特征，不同阶段呈现出不同的对外开放和外交政策特征。③与中国发生事件联系的国家（地区）基本实现全球覆盖，2015年体现为对“一带一路”沿线国家影响作用的大幅上升。④经济发展的推动作用是宏观因素，与发达大国的耦合关系、主动的对外联系、政府主导的国际合作是中国国家影响力提升的微观事件驱动因素。     

China's Energy Future: A Framing Comment

A noted Hong Kong-based specialist on China's energy industries presents a comment on three papers comprising a symposium on that country's rapidly expanding oil, natural gas, and nuclear power sectors. He frames his observations around five overarching themes that have shaped China's energy sector development over recent decades and will continue to do so in the future. These include observations to the effect that: (a) China's energy policy seeks broadly similar objectives to those of other countries; (b) the country's energy resource endowment is not particularly rich when viewed in relation to the size of its population; (c) its energy mix continues to be dominated by coal, with important implications for the environment and domestic freight transportation; (d) the country's economy is confronting a pronounced spatial mismatch between the location of energy resources and the markets where they are consumed; and (e) strategies for energy developments in China are closely tied to overriding political and economic concerns at any given point in time.     

Russia’s gas “Triopoly”: implications of a changing gas sector structure

The growth strategies of the two largest so-called independent Russian gas producers – Novatek and Rosneft – as well as developments in international markets and changing domestic energy needs have put pressure on the present Russian gas sector model dominated by Gazprom. The three companies are involved in a struggle over export liberalization as well as the conditions in the domestic market. Liquefied natural gas is top priority for Novatek and Rosneft’s main gas focus is on eastern Russia and Asia, but there is still room for considerable tension with Gazprom. The government wants to both improve Russia’s position in export markets and maintain stable domestic supplies, including to socially disadvantaged regions and institutions. Gazprom is insisting that if further access to export markets is granted to the Independents, then they must take greater responsibility for domestic market obligations. On the other hand, the key Independents seem intent on stopping or slowing down their expansion in the domestic market in order to prioritize export sales, and will certainly not take broader domestic supply responsibilities without better access to export markets. The balancing of policies involves strong players on the Russian economic and political scene, all with ties to the Kremlin.     

The Energy Dilemma of Belarus: The Nuclear Power Option

A specialist on Belarusian politics and society as well as on the impacts of the Chernobyl' nuclear power station accident on that country examines the factors shaping the current debate regarding construction of a nuclear power station in the eastern oblast of Mahileu (Mogilev). In particular, he analyzes the role played by a significant rise in the price of imported oil and gas from Russia, as well as increasingly strained political relations between the two countries. The paper outlines the discussions within the country on energy and economic issues, the new relationship with Russia, and the new power station, and offers a preliminary assessment of the feasibility of the nuclear power option. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H54, O18, Q40. 1 figure, 25 references.     

Eurasian Natural Gas: Significance and Recent Developments

A noted American specialist on the economies of Russia and major republics of the former Soviet Union explores and discusses the natural gas resources of Central Eurasia and the political and economic issues raised by their general inaccessibility. Central to these issues are the international pipelines required to bring this increasingly important energy source to meet growing world demand, and their intimate connection to the security of all the nations involved. The author explains why they are complicated by the growing, yet still largely potential, competition from a world LNG market driven by new technologies, and hence natural gas sources, outside of Central Eurasia. Each of the major actors in this arena—from the producer states and their national energy companies to the high-income consuming states with an increasing demand for natural gas—are pursuing frequently conflicting strategies to ensure their energy supplies and income security. Addressing the major developments thoroughly, the paper focuses in particular on the strategies of Russia/Gazprom, the Central Asian producers, and the transit states, as well as on the pipelines, both actual and potential, that intertwine them.     

The Booming Russo-Japanese Economic Relations

A noted Japanese economist analyzes the history, present status, and future prospects for Russo-Japanese economic relations. The author demonstrates that the boom in trade between the two countries in the 2000s is unprecedented, ending the stagnation in bilateral trade that began in the early 1980s, when the era of large-scale Siberian resource development projects came to an end. He argues that underlying the current boom is an eastward shift in the Russian economy, characterized by its energy and investment policies as well as foreign economic relations. The paper considers in detail two important factors supporting this boom: (1) Japan’s exports of automobiles to Russia; and (2) Russia’s exports of oil and gas to Japan. He concludes with a guardedly optimistic prognosis suggesting growth in the bilateral economic relations on the grounds of the continuing eastward shift of the Russian economy and a marked correspondence between the demand and supply of the two countries. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F140, O520, P280, Q430. 7 figures, 4 tables, 50 references.     

浅析旅俄华侨社群的构成特点及经商活动--莫斯科华侨社群的问卷分析

二十世纪末中国和俄罗斯都在进行社会经济转型,两国的基本国情决定了双方经济具有极大的互补性,也决定了中国商品在俄罗斯市场上具有旺盛的生命力.莫斯科的华侨社群伴随着这一深刻的时代变化而再度兴起,多达十多万的中国人远赴俄罗斯,寻求经商致富和求学发展的历史机遇,尤以民间贸易的兴起和发展为显著特征.最近十多年,旅俄华侨社群从构成成分到与当地社会的融合特点都发生了深刻的变化.目前的旅俄华侨社群还处在一个初期的发展阶段,与东南亚的华侨社会相比有很大区别,有它的独特之处,是一个新兴的、动态的发展过程.这一新兴的侨民社群在初期阶段的表现和特征、其未来的演变趋势等等,都是值得不断探索和跟踪研究的课题.     

巨文岛事件中的英国外交活动

巨文岛事件是近代东北亚国际关系史上的一个热点问题。从地缘政治观察,该事件是以朝鲜为地理中心的区域政治参与势力在当时的东亚权力格局下进行的一场国际政治博弈;从全球政治观察,是英俄两国在全球争夺势力范围矛盾激化背景下,在东亚地区的区域历史反映。作为事件主角的英帝国,在事件过程中运用“以中国为轴”的外交策略周旋于区域势力的外交压力之中,最后“借力中国”,用巨文岛这枚政治棋子与俄国达成局外妥协,成功地实现了遏制俄国海军进驻朝鲜的东亚战略目标。而中国则审时度势,在险恶的局势中谨慎的开展外交活动,有力地利用了局势施压俄国,实现了维护其在朝鲜半岛宗主权的初衷。     

中日实现经贸合作战略升级的区域环境

尽管中日两国关系内部的经贸合作关系与政治协作关系,在发展上长期处于不平衡、不协调的亚健康状态,但是中国从双边经贸合作的大局出发,一直在积极促进两国经贸关系与政治关系协调发展。这不仅是中国经济发展的内在需要,而且也是区域性外在作用的促进结果。值得一提的是,中日两国在亚太经济合作组织、东亚“10 3”合作机制、中日韩三国合作框架、中日俄三国利益关系的推进上,都有着广泛的合作基础与广阔的合作前景,从而在外部形成了中日两国经贸合作实现战略升级目标的区域促进环境,有利于双方在2008￣2010年间达到2 000亿美圆的经贸合作额度。     

英俄私分帕米尔与清政府的立场

本文以19世纪末的中亚为背景,运用新近刊布的国内外档案、文书等第一手资料,详尽论述了清末英俄以强凌弱,私分帕米尔,瓜分中国领土的经过,并对清政府为捍卫国土主权,与英俄据理力争的严正立场予以新的阐释,以深入理解该时期英俄争夺中亚势力范围的真实目的和清政府的领土主权意识,对稳定新疆局势,维护祖统一有一定的现实意义。     

论中国东北地缘关系及因应对策

本文以历史、现状、未来的视角对中国东北及东北亚地区地缘关系的发展变化进行了总结和趋势判断。在此基础上,提出了因应对策,即:在地缘政治方面与俄罗斯合作,防御日美联合及其构建地区性防御体系;在地缘经济方面与日韩合作,促进东北亚经济的共同发展;在具体策略方面,推进对国内和对国外两个开放,以开放促开发,促进区际联系和国际合作,用地缘经济促进地缘政治的良性发展,为东北区快速发展营造良好的外部条件。     

Japan's response to China's rise: regional engagement, global containment, dangers of collision

Japan and China's ability to manage their bilateral relationship is crucial for the stability of the East Asian region. It also has a global impact on the security and economic development of other regions. For just as China's rise has inevitably involved an expansion of its global reach, so Japan's responses to the challenges posed by China have increasingly taken a global form, seeking to incorporate new partners and frameworks outside East Asia. Japan's preferred response to China's regional and global rise in the post‐Cold War period has remained one of default engagement. Japan is intent on promoting China's external engagement with the East Asia region and its internal domestic reform, through upgrading extant bilateral and Japan–China–US trilateral frameworks for dialogue and cooperation, and by emphasizing the importance of economic power to influence China. Japan is deliberately seeking to proliferate regional frameworks for cooperation in East Asia in order to dilute, constrain and ultimately engage China's rising power. However, Japan's engagement strategy also contains the potential to tilt towards default containment. Japan's domestic political basis for engagement is becoming increasingly precarious as China's rise stimulates Japanese revisionism and nationalism. Japan also appears increasingly to be looking to contain China on a global scale by forging new strategic links in Russia and Central Asia, with a ‘concert of democracies’ involving India, Australia and the US, by competing for resources with China in Africa and the Middle East, and by attempting to articulate a values‐based diplomacy to check the so‐called ‘Beijing consensus’. Nevertheless, Japan's perceived inability to channel China's rise either through regional engagement or through global containment carries a further risk of pushing Japan to resort to the strengthening of its military power in an attempt to guarantee its essential national interests. It is in this instance that Japan and China run the danger of a military collision.