India's Energy Security: Challenges and Opportunities

A noted specialist on India's energy security reviews the range of energy-related issues that will have a bearing on that country's ability to sustain the high current rates of economic growth and development into the future. The author explores the multiple challenges India confronts in securing (through domestic production and external sources) an adequate mix of energy supplies (hydrocarbon fuels, nuclear power, renewable energy sources) and describes as well as analyzes a broad front of actions (both government programs and the activities of private companies) taken to address them. The analysis illuminates India's important role in the production and consumption of several forms of energy. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O130, P280, Q400. 5 figures, 64 references.     

Transitions in China's Oil Economy, 1990-2010

A team of specialists on China's energy sector reviews a series of major transitions that have transformed that country's oil economy over the past two decades. These include, on the demand side, (a) the increasing role of oil in the economy as a whole vis-à-vis other major energy carriers (as incomes have risen and millions of households have purchased vehicles and have also traveled by air), and (b) an increasing emphasis on energy efficiency and carbon mitigation. On the supply side, several additional transitions are discussed, namely (1) the scaling up of output from the central and western regions as well as from offshore, as the major northeastern oil fields decline after several decades of very heavy production, (2) a shift from being a major oil exporter to the world's second-largest oil importer, (3) expansion and diversification in the number of sources from which China imports oil, (4) changes in the way imported oil enters the country (increasingly via pipelines from neighboring countries), and (5) with such heavy dependence on imports, the building of strategic petroleum reserves and an immensely enlarged refining capacity, intended to enhance the nation's oil security.     

China's Energy Future: A Framing Comment

A noted Hong Kong-based specialist on China's energy industries presents a comment on three papers comprising a symposium on that country's rapidly expanding oil, natural gas, and nuclear power sectors. He frames his observations around five overarching themes that have shaped China's energy sector development over recent decades and will continue to do so in the future. These include observations to the effect that: (a) China's energy policy seeks broadly similar objectives to those of other countries; (b) the country's energy resource endowment is not particularly rich when viewed in relation to the size of its population; (c) its energy mix continues to be dominated by coal, with important implications for the environment and domestic freight transportation; (d) the country's economy is confronting a pronounced spatial mismatch between the location of energy resources and the markets where they are consumed; and (e) strategies for energy developments in China are closely tied to overriding political and economic concerns at any given point in time.     

China Gazes West: Xinjiang's Growing Rendezvous with Central Asia

A senior American specialist on the geography of China surveys that country's enduring interest and involvement with the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, increasingly on the basis of Xinjiang's role as a bridgehead for economic linkages. Among the key features of this growing involvement reviewed in the paper are the establishment in 2001 of a regional security alliance (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) to combat Islamist extremism as well as separatist activities; growing commercial linkages (especially with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan) in tandem with improved transport links and increasing crossborder movements of merchants, traders, and tourists; and China's growing need for oil and increasing reliance on Kazakhstan as a key source for petroleum. China's growing engagement with Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries is examined within the context of both opportunities as well as challenges, the latter reflecting the increasing complexity of Han Chinese and Uyghur/Turkic relations owing to increased Uyghur ties to affiliated populations in the Central Asian states.     

Energy Intensity in Light of China's Economic Transition

Two economic geographers examine the impacts of economic transition on the efficiency of energy use in China, the second-largest energy consumer in the world. Following a brief review of reform and deregulation in China's energy sector, they proceed to systematically test the relationship between economic transition (conceptualized as a triple process of marketization, decentralization, and globalization) and energy intensity using a panel data set. The statistical units of analysis are China's 30 provincial-level administrative regions, facilitating the investigation of spatial variations in energy intensity. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O53, P20, Q40, Q43. 9 figures, 5 tables, 62 references.     

The Global Economic Crisis and China's Foreign Trade

Two noted academic specialists on China's economic geography are joined by a research assistant to examine the impact of the current global economic crisis and recession on China's trade with the rest of the world. Relying on statistics collected by the country's customs administration through the first half of 2009, the authors identify and analyze trends in China's imports and exports (detailing countries of origin and destination) as well as balance of trade. They also develop and present an input-output model in order to gain a more precise understanding of the country's trade dependence (both before and during the crisis) than afforded by analyses based on conventional statistics, and explore some of the implications of the decline in trade on levels of domestic unemployment.     

Reassessing Human Geography in the Wake of China's Rise

A prominent human geographer, introducing a series of papers in a Eurasian Geography and Economics mini-symposium devoted to China's emergence, surveys the myriad global impacts of that country's rapid recent rise. The topics covered include the economic (i.e., rapid growth in the size of China's economy, preeminence as an exporter of manufactured goods, and role as a major natural resource consumer, overseas investor, and purchaser of U.S. debt obligations), the geopolitical (increasing involvement in international organizations, rising assertiveness in defense of territorial claims), and the environmental (e.g., carbon footprint, accelerated urbanization, dam building), as well as the implications of China's rise for the study of geography and development. He argues that assessment of the consequences of the country's emergence should not be based on simple extrapolation of present trends, but must take into account a number of looming questions relating to the competitiveness of China's manufacturing labor force (vis-à-vis other developing countries), capacity to innovate (as well as imitate), and transformative societal impacts of modernization and development.     

Ukraine's Financial Crisis, 2009

A prominent specialist in the economic affairs of the former Soviet Union relates and analyzes the state of Ukraine's economy in light of a series of discussions and interviews with the country's Prime Minister and leading economic officials in Kyiv in 2008 and April 2009. The author, a former economic advisor to the country's government and co-chair of the UN's Blue Ribbon Commission for Ukraine, devotes this paper to a penetrating analysis of the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 on Ukraine's budget, banks, exchange rates, money supply, industrial sectors (particularly energy and steel), GDP, and inflationary pressures. Due attention is given to economic relations with the EU and Russia as well as to financial assistance from the IMF.Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E500, E600, O520, P200. 1 table, 4 figures, 38 references.     

China's Economic and Political Penetration in Africa

A senior American specialist on China and noted geographer presents a study of that country's economic and political penetration into the African continent. The author identifies three key elements of China's objectives and plan, namely (1) support for Chinese policies in international affairs, particularly with regard to Taiwan, (2) search for oil and other mineral resources, and (3) creation of a new market for Chinese goods and services in tandem with additional jobs in China. The paper includes four case studies highlighting economic activities stimulated by Chinese loans and investments in the Republic of South Africa, Egypt, Sudan, and Angola. Considerable attention is devoted to oil imports, exports of cheap consumer goods, and construction and repair of infrastructure by Chinese technicians and laborers, as well as the competition between Chinese imports and host-country manufacturing and the PRC's diplomatic support of rogue African nations. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F020, F210, F350, F540. 11 figures, 1 table, 47 references.     

China's Exports and Imports of Agricultural Products under the WTO

An American economic geographer specializing in the agricultural sector of China's economy presents a study of that country's trade in agricultural products. The paper is focused on patterns of change in the regional distribution of agricultural and aquacultural exports and imports before and after China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. Drawing on research during the course of a field trip in July 2008 and utilizing data compiled by China's Customs Bureau, the author provides a comprehensive assessment of the country's trade with 10 major world regions through the year 2007. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F14, F40, O13, Q17. 1 figure, 4 tables, 32 references.     

China's New Generation of Leaders and Regional Challenges in East Asia

A pair of Hong Kong and U.S. specialists on China examines the dynamic international environment China's new leadership now faces, focusing on East Asia. They first examine the complex balance the leadership seeks to strike between: (1) China's projection of increasing economic, military, and political power internationally; (2) the primary domestic goals of economic growth and stability; and (3) rising public awareness, demand for information access, and (in some quarters) nationalism among the Chinese people. The authors then proceed, in successive sections of the paper, to assess in greater detail China's international and regional security environment, Sino-American relations, China's relations with its East Asian neighbors, and the complex interconnections between the country's domestic and foreign policy. They conclude that Sino-American relations will continue to be pivotal to Beijing's foreign relations in general and its relations with countries in the East Asian region more specifically.     

Observations on the Influence of High Oil Prices on Russia's GDP Growth

A noted economist and observer of post-Soviet affairs presents a study probing the influence of high oil prices on Russia's GDP growth. The paper analyzes the contributions to the country's GDP by sectors of origin and final use, and pays special attention to the influence of trade margins produced by oil and gas but recorded and placed by Goskomstat Rossii in Russia's trade sector. The author's interpretation of statistical data released by Goskomstat Rossii as well as by Russian customs authorities enables him to conclude that the present-day economic boom in Russia can be characterized as consumption-led growth fueled by oil and gas export revenues. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: C67, C82, E23, L71, Q43. 2 figures, 10 tables, 20 references.     

The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on the Mechanism of Economic Growth in Russia

A noted specialist on the Russian economy presents an assessment of the impact of the global financial crisis on the mechanism of the country's economic growth. Focusing on the demand side of the economic ledger, the author explores the question of whether Russia will be able to re-attain the high economic growth rates of the period from 2000 to 2007 after recovering from the crisis. The paper analyzes the sharp drop in production in 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, attributing most of the damage to liquidity problems and declines in the price of oil. Empirical evidence is based primarily on data collected by the author from the Central Bank of Russia and the country's federal bureau of statistics (Rosstat). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E010, E200, E660, F210, G010. 11 figures, 3 tables, 29 references.     

A Geospatial Analysis of China's Exports, 1991-2008

Three Taiwan-based economists employ a range of exploratory spatial data analysis tools (e.g., Moran's I and LISA statistics) to investigate trends in the growth of China's exports over the period 1991-2008. A particular focus is on the detection of spatial correlations between China and 40 export destination countries in major world regions. Emphasis in the paper on the key years of 1991, 2001, 2006, and 2008 has enabled the authors to analyze the impacts on China's trade of such major events as the country's accession to the World Trade Organization and the global economic crisis of 2008-2009. The results of the spatial analysis reveal the continuing importance of the U.S. and Asian countries in China's export trade (despite changes in the character of trade relations) and identify the spatial outliers (e.g., in Latin America) that may serve as the basis for new export markets for China in the future.     

BIMSTEC and emerging patterns of Asian regional and interregional cooperation

The first phase of India's Look East Policy in 1991 was exploratory in nature and tinged with more idealism and optimism to break out of the South Asian region which was stagnating in economic growth. The second phase of India's Look East policy took stock of the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 to 1998 and China's growing linkages with the Southeast Asian region. In 1997, mainly through the diligence of Thailand, a new grouping that could act as a bridge between Southeast and South Asia was established called BIMSTEC. The objective of the paper will be to argue that BIMSTEC balances India's engagement with Southeast and South Asia but it also counters China's growing influence among ASEAN members, in particular Myanmar. Thailand is the driving force behind BIMSTEC activities as this would enhance its trade hub status and engagement policy with Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam (CMLV) states.     

China's "Dash for Gas": Challenges and Potential Impacts on Global Markets

Two UK-based researchers examine the significant recent growth in China's demand for natural gas, a fuel not long ago considered of marginal importance but now viewed as critical for the country's future economic growth. Based on a range of databases as well as industry and media reports, the authors demonstrate how rapid demand growth since 2005 has transformed China from a minor, self-sufficient gas producer to a major buyer on international gas markets. They also analyze projections for future demand growth (25 years), showing China's demand for gas will grow faster that anywhere else in the world, and explore the potential for development of China's substantial domestic gas reserves to mitigate import demand over the short to medium term. The study concludes with an assessment of China's potential impact on global gas markets over short, intermediate, and long time horizons.     

Russia's Energy Policy: A Framing Comment

A prominent specialist on the Russian economy provides a framing comment on two preceding papers entitled "Russia's Energy Policy" (by Vladimir Milov, Leonard Coburn, and Igor Danchenko) and "Russia's Energy Policy: A Divergent View" (by Matthew J. Sagers). The author argues that Russia's current energy policy should be viewed as an outcome of competition between three overlapping programs. In this context, he identifies three policy models—the old Soviet, the liberal or oligarchic, and the most recent state capitalist. The latter is currently supported by President Putin, who prioritizes diversification of the country's economy at the expense of diminished investments in the oil and gas sector. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 2 tables, 2 figures, 22 references.     

China's Dynamic Industrial Sector: The Internet Industry

A Singapore-based economic geographer explores and analyzes the spatially uneven evolution of the Internet industry in China, arguing that the country's immense regional disparity in the provision of Internet services is best explained by the interplay of place- and path-dependence. The author demonstrates how the highly uneven regional endowments in relevant industrial and entrepreneurial resources have led to the substantial and persistent regional imbalance within China's emerging "new economy." His initial survey of the country's 100 leading Internet content providers (firms), identified from a listing of ca. 11,700 commercial websites, is selectively augmented to reflect an increase of over 70 million Internet users in 2007, reaching a total of 253 million in June 2008, and thus overtaking the United States as the world's largest Internet market. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L10, L86, O30. 6 figures, 1 table, 53 references.     

The Global Economic Crisis and Unemployment in China

Two noted academic specialists on labor economics and population statistics of China examine the impacts of the global economic crisis of 2008-2009 on the job security of urban workers, and the ensuing repercussions for the Chinese society and economy. More specifically, they probe and determine the magnitude of urban unemployment in China in 2008 and 2009 as it appears to be reported in different segments of the country's immense labor market. A particular focus of the paper is on differences in unemployment among two groups of workers (those with urban hukou vis-à-vis rural migrant workers) with significantly different sets of rights and privileges, as well as levels of job security. The authors also provide an estimate of the urban unemployment rate in 2009 that differs from the official rate. They argue that measures toward further integration of rural and urban labor markets and reducing natural unemployment are ultimately more beneficial than short-term interventions to adjust cyclical joblessness stemming from the global economic crisis and recession.     

The Service Sector in the Chinese Economy: A Geographic Appraisal

A U.S.-based economic geographer and observer of China's economy examines the rapid expansion of the country's largely overlooked service sector, at both the national and regional levels. A particular focus of the author's research is on identifying regional variations in the development of services within the country and exploring some of the more important contributing factors. Based on the findings, the paper also discusses structural shifts that occurred in China's regional economies, disclosing inter alia that inequality in the contribution of services to GDP did not follow the same trajectory as that of employment in services. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L800, O180, P230. 6 figures, 4 tables, 82 references.