National and Regional Population Trends in Azerbaijan

An American specialist on urbanization and population dynamics in the countries of the former Soviet Union examines changes in Azerbaijan's population revealed by analysis of that country's first post-Soviet (1999) census and official 2002 population estimates. Particular attention is devoted to the ongoing conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, in terms of its effects on total population size (mortality and refugee flows into and out of the country) and the internal distribution of population within the country (involuntary migration of internally displaced persons). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 2 figures, 4 tables, 44 references.     

The Potential of Energy as a Geopolitical Binding Factor in Asia

An American specialist on urbanization and population dynamics in the countries of the former Soviet Union examines changes in Ukraine's population revealed by analysis of that country's first post-Soviet census (2001). Among the more salient developments examined in this second-largest post-Soviet republic are extremely high rates of natural population decrease among Ukrainians and Russians alike, a substantial exodus of ethnic Russians from Ukraine (and in some cases their ethnic re-identification as Ukrainians) with major implications for nationality distribution both at the national and regional levels, and interesting trends involving other minority nationalities such as (Crimean) Tatars, Armenians, and Jews. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 3 figures, 7 tables, 25 references.     

RECENT DEMOGRAPHIC AND MIGRATORY TRENDS AMONG SOVIET JEWS: IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY

A prominent authority on the Jewish population of the former USSR focuses on demographic trends and migration behavior (both within the former USSR and abroad), while also addressing the effect of Soviet state policy toward the Jewish population. Among the factors whose effects on population dynamics are examined, emphasis is placed on the Jewish population's concentration in large urban areas, the effects of emigration on age structure of the remaining population, self-identification as a method in census enumeration, ethnic intermarriage and family characteristics, and the outlook and prospects for emigres in Israel and the United States.     

Delayed Underurbanization and the Closed-City Effect: The Case of Ust'-Kamenogorsk

A field study conducted by the author based on a 2001 survey (N = 3,136) compares data on population change at the individual settlement level from the 1999 census of Kazakhstan with unpublished data from the 1989 census. The author documents the unique phenomenon of "delayed underurbanization" in the formerly closed East Kazakh city of Ust'- Kamenogorsk (ca. 300,000 inhabitants in 2002), arguing that the limited financial resources of rural migrants to that city (recently accessible to residents of its rural hinterland) have created spatial patterns of residence and commuting similar to those under the Soviet underurbanization model for open cities. The study, covering an area dominated by militaryindustrial and/or mining-metallurgical economies, is relevant to research focused on other formerly closed cities throughout the Soviet Union. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J61, O15, O18. 5 figures, 25 references.     

RECENT POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND GROWTH IN THE USSR

Data from the preliminary results of the 1989 census and Naseleniye SSSR 1987 permit analyses of age-sex structures of the Soviet population and distributions by civil divisions of natural growth rates, total population growth, urban growth, rural growth, percent urbanization, and growths of cities. The paper complements the treatment of census results by macroregions appearing in the November 1989 issue of Soviet Geography (Rowland, 1989) by summarizing trends emerging at a finer scale of analysis and providing recent background information on demographic components of population change.     

Population Trends in Europe's Poorest Country: Results of the Most Recent Census of Moldova

An American population geographer and specialist on demographic trends in the former Soviet republics examines the results of the first post-Soviet census of Moldova (the poorest country of Europe), conducted in 2004 and released years later. He reviews major national- and regional-level changes in population size, urban/rural distribution, and ethnicity since the last Soviet-era census in 1989 and reconciles the two sets of data. A major factor complicating the analysis is the de facto secession in 1992 of an eastern region of the country, now known as the Pridnestrovskaya Moldavskaya Republic (PMR), which prompted a brief war and subsequent uneasy ceasefire later that year. However, a population enumeration conducted in the PMR, also in 2004 (and released later), facilitates the identification of overall demographic trends in the region, which may experience the involuntary return of jobless migrant workers from Russia and the EU due to the 2008/2009 global recession. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J110, O180, R230. 2 figures, 2 tables, 49 references.     

2002年俄罗斯联邦的民族状况

2002年俄罗斯联邦进行了苏联解体后的第一次全国人口普查。本文根据此次人口普查的资料描述和分析了俄罗斯民族数量的变化、人口10万以上民族的性别和城乡居民比例以及掌握俄语的情况,也对土著小民族以及没有族属的人的情况等进行了介绍和分析。文章认为,苏联和俄罗斯联邦的民族数量不确定的原因,主要与其缺乏统一、连贯的划分民族的国家原则有关。     

From Soviet Modernization to Post–Soviet Transformation: Understanding Marriage and Fertility Dynamics in Uzbekistan

In this article we analyse the dynamics of marriage and childbearing in Uzbekistan through the prism of the recent socioeconomic and political history of that country. After becoming an independent nation in 1991, Uzbekistan abandoned the Soviet modernization project and aspired to set out on a radically different course of economic, social, and political development. We argue, however, that not only independence but also the preceding period of perestroika reforms (1985–91) had a dramatic effect on social conditions and practices and, consequently, the demographic behaviour of the country's population. Using data from the 1996 Uzbekistan Demographic and Health Survey we apply event–history analysis to examine changes in the timing of entry into first marriage, first and second births over four periods: two periods of pre–perestroika socialism, the perestroika years, and the period since independence. We investigate the factors that influenced the timing of these events in each of the four periods among Uzbeks, the country's eponymous and largest ethnic group, and among Uzbekistan's urban population. In general, our results point to a dialectic combination of continuity and change in Uzbekistan's recent demographic trends, which reflect the complex and contradictory nature of broader societal transformations in that and other parts of the former Soviet Union.     

Entitlement through numbers: nationality and language categories in the first post‐Soviet census of Kazakhstan*

Abstract. The post‐independence censuses in virtually all post‐Soviet states have become contested tools of nation‐building and ethnic entitlements. No state was politically more determined and psychologically more anxious to conduct its population census than Kazakhstan, in which the eponymous Kazakhs did not constitute a majority. The article points at political and identity pressures that made it inevitable that the first post‐Soviet census produce the ‘right’ numbers and officialise the anticipated majority status of Kazakhs in the multiethnic state. By analysing the census data on language, it shows how the state has constructed a politically desirable form of linguistic reality by altering the established category ‘native language’ in the census. This not only offers a compelling rationale for ethnic and linguistic entitlements, but also seeks to demonstrate the ‘success’ of the state's language policy.     

Between Social Reformism and Conservatism: Soviet women under the Finnish occupation regime, 1941–1944

The article deals with the Finnish gender policies during the occupation of Soviet Karelia in 1941–1944. It explores the wartime occupation of Soviet Karelia as a clash of Bolshevik and Finnish visions of the woman's position in society, including the level of visual propaganda. Based on oral history interviews and former Soviet archival materials, it also demonstrates how the local population reacted to social visions imposed from above, thus combining the approaches from ‘above’ and from ‘below’.     

RECENT POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR

Pending the publication of new Soviet population data based on the 1979 census, to be hald next January, the author reviews population trends in the 1970's. After a steady decline through much of the Soviet period, birth rates and death rates have stabilized for the country as a whole, although marked regional differences continue. An unexplained rise in infant mortality and an apparent reduction of life expectancy have led to the suppression of data in these areas. No ready explanation is found for a recent increase in female fertility and age-specific death rates. Abnormalities in the age-sex structure, resulting from past population catastrophes, continue to persist and indicate future labor shortages. Geographical differences in population growth rates, resulting from differential rates of natural increase and migration, are analyzed. Urbanization, a typical phenomenon of the Soviet period, continues apace, with the biggest increases in large cities despite a policy designed to discourage big-city growth. A crucial question is the optimal disposition of the growing labor pool in the Central Asian region-whether to foster local employment or encourage migration from Central Asia to labor deficit areas elsewhere in the Soviet Union.     

Ukraine's Financial Crisis, 2009

A prominent specialist in the economic affairs of the former Soviet Union relates and analyzes the state of Ukraine's economy in light of a series of discussions and interviews with the country's Prime Minister and leading economic officials in Kyiv in 2008 and April 2009. The author, a former economic advisor to the country's government and co-chair of the UN's Blue Ribbon Commission for Ukraine, devotes this paper to a penetrating analysis of the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 on Ukraine's budget, banks, exchange rates, money supply, industrial sectors (particularly energy and steel), GDP, and inflationary pressures. Due attention is given to economic relations with the EU and Russia as well as to financial assistance from the IMF.Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E500, E600, O520, P200. 1 table, 4 figures, 38 references.     

THE SOVIET FAR EAST: A REPORT ON URBAN AND RURAL SETTLEMENT AND POPULATION CHANGE, 1966–1989

This article provides a general overview of trends in urban-rural population change and evolution of the settlement system in the Soviet Far East since 1966, incorporating data published in the recent national statistical yearbooks and the preliminary 1989 census report (Pravda, April 29, 1989, p. 2). Total population in the Soviet Far East increased from 5,435,000 in 1966 to 7,941,000 by January 12, 1989, with the share of the urban population now comprising over three-quarters of the total. Migration patterns into and out of the region are discussed and cities planned for expansion are identified.     

Nationality Population Trends in Belarus during the Recent Intercensal Period, 1989-1999

The author, a U.S. geographer specializing in issues of population change and urbanization in the countries of the former USSR, extends an earlier study of the population of Belarus (Rowland, 2003) by focusing on trends of change in the nationality composition of that country's population revealed by the most recent (1999) census. More specifically, the paper analyzes trends and patterns of the nationality composition of the total, urban, and rural Belarusian population at both the national and regional levels for the period 1989-1999. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 3 figures, 10 tables, 10 references.     

Regional Distribution of the Muslim Population of Russia

Drawing on the results of the 2002 population census in Russia, an American geographer examines the size and spatial distribution of ethnic groups classified as Muslim. Methods of classification and issues with enumerating the Muslim population and changes since the 1989 census are described and analyzed. Considerable attention is paid to the implications of such a large and territorially concentrated Muslim population under conditions in the post- Soviet era. Demographic, social, and economic differences between Muslims and the rest of the population of Russia are examined. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: I00, J10, O18. 2 figures, 6 tables, 53 references.     

SOVIET POPULATION CHANGE AND CITY GROWTH 1970-79: A PRELIMINARY REPORT

The total, urban and rural population of major civil divisions of the Soviet Union and the population of cities over 100,000 are analyzed and mapped on the basis of preliminary results of the 1979 census. Total population growth rates declined during the 1970–79 intercensal period compared with the 1959–70 period while urbanization continued apace, although unevenly on a regional basis. The Slavic and other western republics, which show the highest urbanization levels of 60 percent and more, were also characterized by the lowest overall growth rates of 6 to 8 percent. Rural population declined almost everywhere outside a southwestern belt of high growth extending from parts of the southern Ukraine through Transcaucasia to Central Asia. Among large cities, moderate growth continues among cities with a multifunctional economy; high rates are evident in cities with major current industrial projects (automotive, for example) and in oil production regions; low rates are typical of some coal-mining and steelmaking centers. (For another report on the 1979 census, see “News Notes,” Soviet Geography, September 1979.)     

Observations on the Population of Vilnius: The Grim Years and the 1942 Census

An American geographer, commenting on the preceding paper in this issue (Weeks, 2006), focuses more deeply on the results of a little-known but significant census organized by the Germans in May 1942. The author seeks to produce a credible estimate of the city's Jewish population (excluded from the census) some 11 months after the German invasion of Vilnius, and explores the factors underlying various claims that the census distorted the size of the Lithuanian and Polish populations. In the process, he sheds light on a deep interlayering of relationships among the city's diverse ethnic groups that contributes to a unique "sense of place" experienced by city residents. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O15, O18, R14. 7 figures, 3 tables, 63 references.     

Reflections on Ukraine's Current Economic Dilemma

A prominent specialist on economic transition in the former Soviet Union presents an overview of Ukraine's economic dilemma in the aftermath of the most recent elections in that country. The author, a former economic advisor to Ukraine's government and co-chair of the UN's Blue Ribbon Commission for Ukraine, relates his insights into the causes of three acute problems (inflation, corruption, and the lack of structural reforms). Focusing on the state of economic affairs in 2008, the paper, which includes data on economic growth and exchange rates, discusses inter alia the hryvnia's peg to the dollar and the potential consequences of rising food and commodity prices. Included in the analysis is a comparison with Russia. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E58, E60, O52, P26. 34 references.     

The Origins of American Expansion in Hawaii and Samoa, 1865–1900

From Nixon to Reagan, official US perceptions of West German trade with the Soviet Union (Osthandel) underwent a remarkable evolution. Despite initial skepticism, the Nixon and Ford administrations placed no major obstacles to West German–Soviet economic relations. Carter, however, changed the situation. His stance on human rights and economic sanctions against the Soviets for various developments - along with his belief that West Germany should follow the United States' lead - led Carter to ask Schmidt to curtail Osthandel, an action that contributed to Schmidt's notoriously poor relationship with the US President. Despite coming from a different political party, Reagan initially continued Carter's outlook on Osthandel. Yet rather than emphasize human rights, he publicly stressed Poland's self-determination as the reason to implement his aggressive policy to curb trade with the USSR, even though his advisers feared the strategic implications of greater German dependence on Soviet energy. Carter's and Reagan's early approaches were ineffective. Their actions, especially the latter's, strained US relations with Germany, the United States' most important ally in central Europe. Equally important, both Carter's and Reagan's policies undermined détente with Moscow. Because Nixon and Ford's approach to Osthandel harmed neither US–German relations nor US–Soviet relations, these presidents' responses had conspicuous advantages over succeeding administrations.     

Ukraine's Geopolitical Choice, 2009

A noted specialist in international affairs and former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine reviews and analyzes the history of independent Ukraine's relations with Russia and the West following the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The author proceeds to examine the multifaceted Western position toward Kyiv as it has evolved through June 2009, paying due attention to the European Union and NATO. He then discusses the factors contributing to the volatility of Ukrainian-Russian relations following the Orange Revolution of 2004, including a range of specific concerns as well as more general Russian desires for a compliant government that would pay deference to key Russian interests. Concluding sections focus on Ukraine's future geopolitical trajectory in the run-up to the country's presidential elections in early 2010 and on internal problems (constitutional, market, and energy reform) that will command urgent attention once the political situation stabilizes and the outlines of a constructive engagement that could be pursued by the West are at hand. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F500, F520, P200. 1 figure, 1 table, 39 references.