The Fiscal-Electoral Nexus in Australia, 1976-94

This article re-evaluates existing political business cycle theory in the specific context of the political economy of Australian fiscal policy since the mid-1970s. Whereas 'traditional' political business cycle models, formulated within a Keynesian framework, assume a high level of state autonomy over fiscal policy, this article argues that an environment of fiscal restraint has been imposed on Australian federal governments over the study period. Given the historical dynamics of Australian economic policy which inform this study, a hypothesis is developed which reflects the policy optimisation dilemma which has confronted Australian federal governments when formulating fiscal priorities in a pre-election context. On one hand, there are pre-poll demands for expansionary fiscal settings from the electorate; on the other, there are demands from financial markets and domestic neoliberal interests for fiscal restraint. Reflecting the fact that identifiable costs are associated with implementing expansionary fiscal policy settings, it is hypothesised that such an approach will be adopted only in times of greatest political need, when an incumbent government is facing a popularity deficit in a pre-election context. While the study confirms that the fiscal-electoral effect is relatively weak, electoral demands do still influence the fiscal priorities of Australian federal governments. This is particularly so with the case of personal taxation relief, a policy approach that appears to be more acceptable to financial markets, key neoliberal interests and some segments of the electorate.     

Bank Depositor Behavior in Russia in the Aftermath of Financial Crisis

An international team of economists examines the factors influencing the behavior of Russian depositors in the immediate aftermath of that country's 1998 financial crisis, drawing upon two largely unutilized data sources—data from the Russian state savings bank Sberbank and a November 1998 household survey. After first reviewing the evolution of the household deposit market during the 1990s, they explore regional variations in net withdrawals from Sberbank branches during the period August-October 1998 as well as identify characteristics of individual/household depositors making (or attempting to make) such withdrawals. More severe runs on Sberbank outlets are found to be associated with more affluent and entrepreneurial regions, regions of more youthful and less educated population closer to Moscow, and areas with greater media freedom. Subsequent public opinion survey analysis of the socioeconomic correlates of runs on all Russian banks during the 1998 crisis reveals some interesting differences (in the effects of education in particular) on the propensity to successfully withdraw deposits.     

The Global Economic Crisis and Foreign Investment in Russia from the EU: Empirical Evidence from Firm-Level Data

This paper empirically examines the impact of the recent global economic crisis on foreign investment from EU countries in Russia by estimating a location choice model for foreign firms' entry in Russian regions for the period 1997-2011. It also examines the relative importance of various determinants of location choice on the redistribution of foreign-owned firms among Russian regions before and after the crisis. Strong evidence during the post-crisis period (2008-2011) of a decrease in market-seeking foreign investment in manufacturing and resource-seeking foreign investment in trade is examined not only in light of the crisis but also (in the latter case) within the context of the new Russian law for foreign investment in strategic industries, which went into effect in 2008.     

The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on the Mechanism of Economic Growth in Russia

A noted specialist on the Russian economy presents an assessment of the impact of the global financial crisis on the mechanism of the country's economic growth. Focusing on the demand side of the economic ledger, the author explores the question of whether Russia will be able to re-attain the high economic growth rates of the period from 2000 to 2007 after recovering from the crisis. The paper analyzes the sharp drop in production in 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, attributing most of the damage to liquidity problems and declines in the price of oil. Empirical evidence is based primarily on data collected by the author from the Central Bank of Russia and the country's federal bureau of statistics (Rosstat). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E010, E200, E660, F210, G010. 11 figures, 3 tables, 29 references.     

Exchange Rate Policy and the Central and East European Financial Crisis

A prominent specialist on economic developments in the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries examines the ways in which the global financial crisis of 2008-2010 has impacted the economies of the 10 new eastern member states of the European Union (CEE-10). The author assesses the multiple preconditions of the crisis (e.g., excessive current account deficits, large foreign debt, inadequate currency reserves, immense credit expansion, rising inflation and real estate prices) as well as the rapid financial adjustments that had to be undertaken to overcome it (e.g., current account rebalancing, reducing budget deficits, pension and fiscal reform). He devotes considerable attention to the key issue of how the differences in exchange rate policies in these countries affected their abilities to respond to the crisis and outlines measures that should be implemented to enhance the crisis management capability of non-eurozone states relying on currency boards or floating exchange rates.     

San Juan,the Fragile City: Finance Capital,Class, and the Making of Puerto Rico's Economic Crisis

This paper narrates Puerto Rico's fiscal and financial crisis through a reading of San Juan's urban landscape. We underscore the role of capital in the city, primarily embodied by the local capitalist class (the Criollo bloc) and foreign capitalists. Historically excluded from the manufacturing sector (dominated by US capitalists), the Criollo bloc accumulates its wealth by concentrating financial assets in the city. In times of crisis, the Criollo bloc resorts to the acquisition of new assets and asset exchange with foreign capitalists to remain solvent and provide short‐term solutions to the state's fiscal and financial limits. The survival of the local capitalist class, we demonstrate, is dependent on asset stripping. Drawing on Clyde Woods, we document how asset stripping unevenly redistributes wealth and risks along class and racial lines within a colonial economy. The finance capital/asset stripping basis of San Juan's economy renders it an extremely fragile city, we contend.     

DO FEDERAL DEFICITS MOTIVATE REGIONAL FISCAL (IM)BALANCES? EVIDENCE FOR THE SPANISH CASE

This paper studies the vertical and horizontal interactions between federal and regional governments in terms of public deficits. Recent studies commonly restraint budget slippages to the incentives created by the institutional arrangements within a country. Alternatively, we estimate here a fiscal reaction function for the Spanish regions over the period 1995–2010, paying special attention to the impact of the federal fiscal stance on regional fiscal imbalances. Our results indicate that higher public deficits for the central government encourage larger fiscal imbalances at the regional level. This vertical interaction is interpreted in the context of yardstick competition models. We also find a significant impact from fiscal decisions taken by governments at the same decision‐making tier in a specific region.     

Bank Liquidity Creation in Russia

Two EU-based senior economists analyze the contribution of bank liquidity creation to the Russian economy, as well as changes in creation of liquidity occurring during the global financial crisis. Applying the methodology of Berger and Bouwman's (2009) study of U.S. banking to a rich panel dataset for Russian banks for the period 1999-2009, the authors compute three alternative measures of bank liquidity creation. They find evidence of increased creation of liquidity in real terms over the period and also determine that state-controlled (versus private) banks and Russia's largest banks (versus intermediate-size and small banks) contributed most to liquidity creation (lower in Russia than in the U.S.). Their findings suggest that consolidation of the Russian banking sector may prove more instrumental in increasing liquidity creation than privatization per se.     

The "Crisis" Geography of Contemporary Russia

Against the background of structural and geographical changes that brought about the economic crises of the 1990s in the Russian Federation and subsequent recovery in the early years of the 21st century, the authors analyze the challenges of (and responses to) the 2008 global economic and financial crisis in Russia. Quantitative data derived from official sources and the authors' own research is used to analyze developments at a variety of spatial scales, including inter- and intra-regional, urban and rural. The noted authors speculate about possible exit paths from the crisis and their impacts on spatial differentiation within the Russian Federation. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F210, G010, O150, O180. 6 figures, 1 table, 55 references.     

China's Nuclear Energy in Light of the Disaster in Japan

An American specialist on Russian agriculture examines that country's agrarian policy, as well as the agricultural sector more generally, one year into the presidency of Dmitriy Medvedev. Focusing on the three key policy issues—state financial support, state intervention in the grain market, and international food trade policy—he assesses the extent to which current policy represents a continuation of that prevailing during the presidency of Vladimir Putin. The author discusses the appointment of a new Agriculture Minister in 2009, which may signal a different approach to the management of the sector, and concludes with an assessment of the impact of the global financial crisis. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F130, Q100, Q170, Q180. 2 tables, 63 references.     

跨国地区的空间经济联系与格局特征研究——以中国东北三省与俄罗斯远东联邦区为例

以中国东北三省和俄罗斯远东联邦区为研究对象,运用区域经济等级、经济联系强度、地缘经济匹配等研究中俄跨国地区空间经济联系与格局特征,研究表明：2010—2019年,(1)俄远东繁荣的经济区与停滞的落后区两极分化现象显著。一级经济区位于滨海边疆区、哈巴罗夫斯克（伯力）边疆区、萨哈（雅库特）共和国、萨哈林（库页）州,二级经济区分布在阿穆尔州、外贝加尔边疆区、布里亚特共和国,三级经济区包含堪察加边疆区、马加丹州、犹太自治州、楚科奇自治区。(2)中国东北三省与俄远东区的经济联系强度不断增强,同其毗邻东向的滨海边疆区,北向的阿穆尔州和哈巴罗夫斯克（伯力）边疆区的经济联系量最多。空间上,中国东北三省与俄远东不同地区（南部>西部>东北部）经济联系差异较大,呈“南高北低、西高东低”的格局特征。(3)中国东北三省与俄远东多数联邦主体隶属于地缘经济互补型,表现出距离越近的联邦主体、竞争关系较强,距离越远的联邦主体、互补关系较强的态势。     

转型期俄罗斯区域经济发展空间差异研究

本文从区域地理的视角,通过对俄罗斯转型以来的经济地带、基本经济区、联邦区和联邦主体四个不同层面的区域经济发展空间差异的现状进行动态分析,得出俄区域经济发展差异具有三个鲜明的特征:一是无论在其经济整体下降或增长的同时均伴随着区域之间经济发展差异的绝对或相对扩大过程;二是区域之间经济发展空间差异反映了市场经济在不同区域的作用,即在市场条件基础较好和资源性外向型经济发展有利的区域经济增长优于其他区域;三是形成了大量的"低水平塌陷"区域,即经济指标低于全俄平均数的问题区域数量多,覆盖面大。在此基础上,从自然因素、市场发育水平、体制因素以及社会历史因素等方面探讨了各因素在区域经济发展中的不同作用。     

Immigration to Russia: Inevitability and Prospective Inflows

A U.S.-based geographer joins a senior Russian demographer in an effort to explore the potential flows of immigrants to Russia (principally from the Commonwealth of Independent States and to a lesser extent from China) to stem the country's recent population decline and compensate for looming decreases in the country's working-age inhabitants. More specifically, they examine the demand for immigration to Russia and assess the likelihood of three possible scenarios (high, medium, and low) to meet that demand by 2026. Particular attention is paid to the likely interplay of immigration and domestic migration in terms of its effects on the future distribution of migrants among Russia's federal districts. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F220, J110, J210, J610. 6 figures, 4 tables, 33 references.     

The retreat from neoliberalism that was not: Australia’s Building the Education Revolution

This article examines the durability of neoliberalism in the face of crisis by analysing the Building the Education Revolution (BER), a key part of the Australian Labor Government’s stimulus measures in response to the global financial crisis in 2009. The fiscal stimulus measures enacted by governments in the aftermath of the crisis led many commentators to herald the end of neoliberalism. By examining the design of the BER, however, this article finds that one of the key policy tools of neoliberalism – the outsourcing of public sector capacity – was extended through such stimulus programs. The article argues that a materialist analysis of neoliberalism is better able to understand this phenomenon than the recent tendency to analyse neoliberalism in ideational terms.     

Fiscal Federalism and Social Well–Being in Australia

Australia’s federal system is characterised by both vertical and horizontal financial imbalance. This is overcome by Commonwealth-state transfer payments. The nature of such transfers has changed over time as attempts have been made to redefine fiscal federalism. Currently, the budgetary position of the states, notions of co-operative federalism, and pleas for micro-economic reform are altering the nature of government activity as more and more is left to market forces. Patterns of social well-being are changing and increased inter-regional differences are evident. The current system of transfer payments can cope with this but detailed monitoring of social well-being is needed as is debate over the meaning of equity in the Australian federal system.     

Urban planning in Russia: towards the market

The article discusses the recent transformation of the Russian system of urban planning from the socialist system to a market one. The focus is on new problems of the Russian planning system, the relationship between the new and old systems, and the role of the bureaucracy and participation. A case study of the city of Moscow develops the subject at a metropolitan level. It is argued that Russian planning in transition has been planning in crisis and it is only now becoming an effective and pluralistic social institution. The recent revival of planning has been much dependent on Russia's regions; a diversification of planning systems throughout the country is expected.     

A continuing confusion? A comment on the appropriate dispersal of policy powers in the Australian federation

Dissatisfaction with Australia's federalist constitutional and administrative arrangements seems universal. The Labor Party has historically preferred a centralist thrust to the Australian federal compact. From the opposite, decentralist tack the Liberal‐National Coalition parties currently propose that the Commonwealth should hive‐off policy functions to the States. These attitudes are expressed in an intellectual climate that disparages the allocative efficiency of Australian federalism and debates these issues in terms of shifting power to or from the Commonwealth. A more sensible focus is on the usage that the citizenry has made of the federal system in obtaining satisfactory service delivery. Using this approach our federal system works efficiently (in a limited political‐administrative sense.

This is not an argument that Australia's federal system is good because it maximises fiscal efficiency or guarantees equity. It does not do the former'and varies in its attainment of the latter. The federal system is good because it maximises opportunities and avenues for citizens to obtain what they want from government. In that sense the Coalition parties are fundamentally confused both about their philosophy and that philosophy's relationship to the political nature of Australian federalism. Labor's slowly‐ebbing centralism equally ignores the political usage that citizens have made of the administrative and funding arenas provided by our federal system.     

Defiant Innovation: The Adoption of Medical Marijuana Laws in the American States

Diffusion research often characterizes the role of the federal government in innovation adoption as a supportive one, either increasing the likelihood of adoption or its speed. We examine the adoption of medical marijuana laws (MMLs) from 1996 to 2014 to shed light on what motivates states to adopt innovations that are in explicit defiance of federal law. Furthermore, we examine whether federal signals have any influence on the likelihood of adoption. In doing so, we utilize implementation theory to expand our understanding of how the federal government's position impacts state policy innovation adoption. We find mixed evidence for the influence of federal signals on the adoption of MMLs. The results suggest that medical marijuana policies are much more likely to be adopted in states when proponents have the political or institutional capital, rather than a medical or fiscal need. Moreover, this political capital is sufficient independent of the federal government's real or perceived position.     

Bingo or fiasco? The global financial situation is not guaranteed

The 1998 Russian debt default following the Asian financial crisis sent a signal to global capital markets that no country from now on could be seen as 'too big to fail'. The concern which followed Russia's crisis raised two questions: first, with regard to the relevance of the interest rate in the presence of highly lever-aged securities; and second, over the question of the protection of a country or institution from bankruptcy while simultaneously making sure that any rescue would not encourage either further risk-taking from investors or more badly managed policies from emerging market economies. Moreover, the moral hazard question, coupled with the sheer size of private capital flows, led international institutions to consider involving the private sector in solving financial crises. This article describes why a situation has now been reached where no future guarantee can be given to countries or financial institutions, implicitly or explicitly, that their debts will be bailed out.     

The Russian economic puzzle: going forwards,backwards or sideways?

The question addressed in this article is whether the recent strong growth of the Russian economy is sustainable. The main difficulty is assessing the conflicting evidence. Developments since the financial crisis of 1998 are reviewed, including growth performance and macro‐economic management. There is an analysis of the nature and extent of Russian economic dependence on exports of oil and gas and the direction towards state control since 2003 is described. The article reviews the interaction of competitive power politics among the political elite with economic policy and assesses factors favouring and factors working against continued rapid growth over the next five years. One conclusion is that informal rules operating in the economy differ across sectors, and Russian economic development is in part robust; but there are powerful influences working towards a slowdown in growth.