Russia's Energy Policy, 1992-2005

A team comprising a former Russian policymaker and American analysts of the current Russian energy policy examines the course of that policy and its limitations during the post-Soviet period. In the process, they critically analyze key problems in Russia's oil, gas, coal, and electricity sectors that represent a potential drag on growth of the entire Russian economy and at the very least call into question the sustainability of further increases in exports to the West. The authors explore in considerable depth and detail both the factors underlying the recent increase in government intervention in the energy sector and the likely consequences for domestic production, consumption, resource security, and critical exports. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 11 figures, 3 tables, 29 references.     

Russia's Energy Policy: A Framing Comment

A prominent specialist on the Russian economy provides a framing comment on two preceding papers entitled "Russia's Energy Policy" (by Vladimir Milov, Leonard Coburn, and Igor Danchenko) and "Russia's Energy Policy: A Divergent View" (by Matthew J. Sagers). The author argues that Russia's current energy policy should be viewed as an outcome of competition between three overlapping programs. In this context, he identifies three policy models—the old Soviet, the liberal or oligarchic, and the most recent state capitalist. The latter is currently supported by President Putin, who prioritizes diversification of the country's economy at the expense of diminished investments in the oil and gas sector. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 2 tables, 2 figures, 22 references.     

Oil Exploration in Russia: Prospects for Reforming a Crucial Sector

Two seasoned observers of the Russian oil industry analyze the country's policy response to developments in its mineral resources base (often perceived as an exploration crisis), with a focus on oil. The authors review and discuss trends in exploration (including its organization and efficiency), recent developments in its financing, and the reorganization of exploration activity. The evolution of Russia's licensing system is presented, drawing attention to changes that have affected incentives, risks, and barriers to potential resource users, both Russian and foreign. Also identified are conflicts between the objectives of resource managers and broader political goals and interests. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L710, Q310, Q380, Q410. 4 figures, 40 references.     

China's Energy Security: Challenges and Priorities

In a companion paper to the essays comparing China's and India's economic rise (Prime, 2009) as well as India's energy security (Dadwal, 2009), two specialists on China's energy industries review the country's challenges posed by the need to dramatically increase energy use in order to support economic growth while coping with pressures to reduce environmental impacts from emissions of greenhouse gases. After reviewing the current mix of fuels in the economy and discussing each major energy resource (in terms of proven reserves, production, consumption, and foreign import requirements), the authors focus on measures undertaken by the Chinese government and corporations to improve access to vital supplies. The paper covers efforts to enhance the country's energy security, which include diversifying sources of oil supply, purchasing oil and gas concessions and financing of energy infrastructure development in African and Central Asian countries, instituting reforms to encourage more efficient energy use, and developing alternative energy sources. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O130, P280, Q400. 7 figures, 2 tables, 82 references.     

Forks in the Road: Energy Policies in Canada and the US since the Shale Revolution

ABSTRACT

This article examines policy responses in Canada and the US to the shale revolution and changing North American oil and gas markets. We outline the effect of the shale revolution on North American oil and gas markets, and how the subsequent energy policy choices in each country changed the relationship between Canada and the US. In the US, increasing production, combined with the policy imperative of maintaining energy security, led to less support for Canadian supply and the subsequent on-off-on saga of the Keystone XL pipeline. In Canada, growing concern about the balance between the environment and the economy led to stalled pipeline development and reform of regulatory systems, problems exacerbated by the new policy direction in the US.     

The Energy Dilemma of Belarus: The Nuclear Power Option

A specialist on Belarusian politics and society as well as on the impacts of the Chernobyl' nuclear power station accident on that country examines the factors shaping the current debate regarding construction of a nuclear power station in the eastern oblast of Mahileu (Mogilev). In particular, he analyzes the role played by a significant rise in the price of imported oil and gas from Russia, as well as increasingly strained political relations between the two countries. The paper outlines the discussions within the country on energy and economic issues, the new relationship with Russia, and the new power station, and offers a preliminary assessment of the feasibility of the nuclear power option. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H54, O18, Q40. 1 figure, 25 references.     

Perspectives on the Caspian Sea Dilemma: Russian Policies Since the Soviet Demise

An American political scientist specializing in Soviet and post-Soviet foreign affairs outlines the highlights of Russian policy in the Caspian region from 1991 to late 2003. The paper discusses and analyzes the interaction among the five littoral states (Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan) in light of contentious disputes over the sea's demarcation, the routing of pipelines, and efforts to maximize oil and gas exports to the West. Noting instances of "gunboat diplomacy" used by Russia and Iran, as well as the American presence in the region after 9/11 and during the current war in Iraq, the author reflects on the Russian role as a stabilizing force in the region. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O18, Q30, Q40. 1 figure, 74 references.     

Observations on the Influence of High Oil Prices on Russia's GDP Growth

A noted economist and observer of post-Soviet affairs presents a study probing the influence of high oil prices on Russia's GDP growth. The paper analyzes the contributions to the country's GDP by sectors of origin and final use, and pays special attention to the influence of trade margins produced by oil and gas but recorded and placed by Goskomstat Rossii in Russia's trade sector. The author's interpretation of statistical data released by Goskomstat Rossii as well as by Russian customs authorities enables him to conclude that the present-day economic boom in Russia can be characterized as consumption-led growth fueled by oil and gas export revenues. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: C67, C82, E23, L71, Q43. 2 figures, 10 tables, 20 references.     

The Regional Dimension of Russian Oil Production: Is a Sustained Recovery in Prospect?

An American geographer and prominent authority on oil and natural gas industries and resources of Russia and other former republics of the Soviet Union presents a region-byregion account of Russia's oil production, tracing in considerable detail developments up to September 2006. The account, based on systematic and frequent field investigations since the early 1990s as well as interviews with key industry executives, covers reserves, output trends, ownership, investments, pipelines, and a variety of economic factors including exports to China. Addressing the question of whether sustained production recovery is possible, the author presents American and Russian scenarios projecting oil output through the year 2020. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 8 figures, 7 tables, 64 references.     

Russia's Oil Industry: Risk Aversion in a Risk-Prone Environment

A Russian economist and a Norwegian political scientist, both long-term observers of the Russian energy industries, discuss the outlook for the Russian oil industry. The focus is on the relationship between reserves and industry strategies, and is presented from the perspective of an oil-producing enterprise. The authors analyze trends in reserve exploration and development and compare them with oil-industry investment patterns. They discuss differences and similarities among companies, as well as implications for future output. Also examined in the paper are factors inhibiting long-term private investment in the oil industry (including factors specific to particular companies) as well as the relevant policies of the government. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: D21, H25, L71, Q48. 8 figures, 1 table, 40 references.     

Developments in Russian Gas Production Since 1998: Russia's Evolving Gas Supply Strategy

An American geographer and prominent authority on the oil and natural gas industries and resources of Russia and other former republics of the Soviet Union reports on overall trends in Russia's natural gas production in the years following the country's ruble devaluation and financial crisis. The account—based on systematic in-country observations, discussions/interviews with industry executives, and a review of industry sources—focuses on factors affecting domestic supply and demand as well as export capacity (will Russia have enough gas to meet rising domestic demand while fulfilling its export obligations?), regional patterns of production (and performance of Gazprom regional production enterprises), obstacles to the use of associated gas derived from crude oil extraction, and major pipeline construction projects in West Siberia and the Russian Far East. The paper concludes by outlining CERA's forecast for Russian gas production to 2020, also disaggregated by region. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 7 figures, 8 tables, 51 references.     

The Booming Russo-Japanese Economic Relations

A noted Japanese economist analyzes the history, present status, and future prospects for Russo-Japanese economic relations. The author demonstrates that the boom in trade between the two countries in the 2000s is unprecedented, ending the stagnation in bilateral trade that began in the early 1980s, when the era of large-scale Siberian resource development projects came to an end. He argues that underlying the current boom is an eastward shift in the Russian economy, characterized by its energy and investment policies as well as foreign economic relations. The paper considers in detail two important factors supporting this boom: (1) Japan’s exports of automobiles to Russia; and (2) Russia’s exports of oil and gas to Japan. He concludes with a guardedly optimistic prognosis suggesting growth in the bilateral economic relations on the grounds of the continuing eastward shift of the Russian economy and a marked correspondence between the demand and supply of the two countries. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F140, O520, P280, Q430. 7 figures, 4 tables, 50 references.     

Back to the future or forward to the past? Strengthening markets and rules for effective global energy governance

Current public policy debates on energy security are characterized by a singular focus on questions regarding access to resources. This lopsided attention to the geopolitical dimension of energy security is based on the myopic and erroneous presumption that global energy politics is necessarily a zero-sum game in which one country's energy security is another's lack thereof. In fact, debates deflect attention from the real issues that policy-makers should consider in their attempts to foster effective global energy governance—the central role increasingly international energy markets play in balancing demand and supply—and, even more importantly, the significance of the 'rules of the game' that structure these markets. This article makes a first attempt to apply a broader analytical lens by pointing out and analyzing the important role rules play in determining outcomes in international oil and gas markets; by examining how current trends are affecting the existing 'rules of the game'; and by highlighting consequences for public policy.     

Russian Revenues from Oil and Gas Exports: Flow and Taxation

A senior Japanese economist traces the flows of revenue derived from oil and gas exports through the Russian economy. The author examines the use of revenues and investigates their contribution to Russia's state and regional budgets in the form of taxes. After detailing the methodological difficulties encountered in measuring revenue streams statistically, he proceeds to approximate their magnitude through intensive use of input-output table data and budget statistics provided by the Russian Federation Ministry of Finance. His investigation of the list of destination countries for Russian oil and petroleum products exports has interesting implications for the study of capital flight from Russia to the West. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F14, H20, Q43. 10 tables, 37 references.     

Transitions in China's Oil Economy, 1990-2010

A team of specialists on China's energy sector reviews a series of major transitions that have transformed that country's oil economy over the past two decades. These include, on the demand side, (a) the increasing role of oil in the economy as a whole vis-à-vis other major energy carriers (as incomes have risen and millions of households have purchased vehicles and have also traveled by air), and (b) an increasing emphasis on energy efficiency and carbon mitigation. On the supply side, several additional transitions are discussed, namely (1) the scaling up of output from the central and western regions as well as from offshore, as the major northeastern oil fields decline after several decades of very heavy production, (2) a shift from being a major oil exporter to the world's second-largest oil importer, (3) expansion and diversification in the number of sources from which China imports oil, (4) changes in the way imported oil enters the country (increasingly via pipelines from neighboring countries), and (5) with such heavy dependence on imports, the building of strategic petroleum reserves and an immensely enlarged refining capacity, intended to enhance the nation's oil security.     

Household Incomes in Central Asia: The Case of Post-Soviet Kazakhstan

Two European geographers present the findings of a sizeable survey (n = 7,515) providing a detailed geographical analysis of household incomes and reliance on personal subsidiary garden plots across Kazakhstan. The authors focus on assessing the extent to which Kazakhstan's rising GDP during the post-Soviet period has coincided with an increase in the general population's personal income and ability to secure adequate food supplies for personal consumption. The fine geographical scale of analysis of the survey data (significantly less coarse than oblast-level data) enabled them to identify regions characterized by "trickle-down" income, largely centered on the country's two main urban centers and areas of resource exploitation. The patterns revealed in the paper have relevance to the debate concerning the uneven distribution of benefits from resource exploitation (notably oil and gas) to Kazakhstan's population. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: D100, D310, I300, Q120, R290. 2 figures, 6 tables, 51 references.     

China's Energy Future: A Framing Comment

A noted Hong Kong-based specialist on China's energy industries presents a comment on three papers comprising a symposium on that country's rapidly expanding oil, natural gas, and nuclear power sectors. He frames his observations around five overarching themes that have shaped China's energy sector development over recent decades and will continue to do so in the future. These include observations to the effect that: (a) China's energy policy seeks broadly similar objectives to those of other countries; (b) the country's energy resource endowment is not particularly rich when viewed in relation to the size of its population; (c) its energy mix continues to be dominated by coal, with important implications for the environment and domestic freight transportation; (d) the country's economy is confronting a pronounced spatial mismatch between the location of energy resources and the markets where they are consumed; and (e) strategies for energy developments in China are closely tied to overriding political and economic concerns at any given point in time.     

Offshore Mineral Development in the Russian Barents Sea

Two Norwegian researchers examine the forces alternatively driving and hindering offshore hydrocarbon development in the Russian sector of the Barents Sea. The paper describes exploration activities beginning during the Soviet period and extending to the present, the status of the major development projects financed in part with foreign capital, and conflicting regional and central government interests involved in such development. Coverage includes the emergence of Rosshelf, an oil/gas conglomerate formed to facilitate defense conversion activities of major naval shipyards. Critical to analysis of the projects' potential is assessment of alternative gas supplies and energy development strategies. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O13, Q40, R10. 3 figures, 1 table, 63 references.     

Energy Intensity in Light of China's Economic Transition

Two economic geographers examine the impacts of economic transition on the efficiency of energy use in China, the second-largest energy consumer in the world. Following a brief review of reform and deregulation in China's energy sector, they proceed to systematically test the relationship between economic transition (conceptualized as a triple process of marketization, decentralization, and globalization) and energy intensity using a panel data set. The statistical units of analysis are China's 30 provincial-level administrative regions, facilitating the investigation of spatial variations in energy intensity. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O53, P20, Q40, Q43. 9 figures, 5 tables, 62 references.